Does rarity help or hurt value?

[parkplace33]

Watercooler question with a coworker today. Does rarity help or hurt card value?

For example, let's say you have a preward type card that is extremely rare. Does the rareness help or hurt the value, especially when you want to sell it?

I am on the fence. I can see how popular player cards may help the value. But on the other hand, I can see cards that are so rare would have a much lower interest from the average collector.

[MVSNYC]

I think a rare card within a rare or esoteric set would have narrower collectibility, and be quite niche. Not saying they wouldn't command high dollars, but I think if compared to a rare card in a popular set (i.e. a Rare Back within the T206 set, or a low-pop player in the Cracker Jack set), I think the latter would be most desirable. Just my 2 cents.

[Snapolit1]

Both. Or either.

Some cards are too scarce of their own good. No market. Many of us have cards that are more scarce than a Wagner tobacco card that we couldn't sell for $500.

The 52 Mantle is not particularly scarce. Nor is the Mays 52.

One of the many oddities about collecting.

On a related note, the next dope who posts "RARER THAN A GOUDEY!!!!" in an Ebay listing is getting my entire foot in their behind. See it every day, all day. It means nothing.

[nwobhm]

IMHO rarity is almost meaningless.... it's demand that sets price. There are over 20,000 86' Fleer Jordan RC graded by PSA alone. Look at the prices.... makes no sense. Many a prewar card are in very short supply.....very few bring Jordan values, even less bring more $. YMMV

[Carter08]

I'm going to change my tagline to add rarer than a Goudey. I agree it can go both ways. Hard to nail down specifics. Depends on the player and the set involved. There is a race car driver in the T227 set where there are only a few out there. Sells for huge money just to complete the set, and there are just enough of some of the other cards to make the set somewhat pursuable. If Cobb was not part of that set or there weren't enough of the other cards available I could see the race car card having much much less interest.

[KMayUSA6060]

I don't think it's a clear cut answer. There's a combination of rarity and scarcity that certainly increases value, but not all rare issues are more expensive, and vice versa - some rare cards are more expensive.

I have two main projects - Hall of Fame run and Grover Hartley PC.

- Mainstream set HoFers typically go for more than their non-mainstream, yet often more rare counterparts (i.e. T207 WaJo vs T206 WaJo). I sold a bunch of HoFers a couple years ago, and as I rebuild that portion of the project, my focus is often the non-mainstream but more rare examples of the HoFers. They're often cheaper (sometimes significantly) and I like the rarity. However, there are some rare issues that are non-mainstream that sell for significantly more than mainstream issues.

- Grover Hartley's rare cards are always more expensive. Is the rarity exactly proportionate to its value? Nope. I just bought an example that is potentially the only known in existence, and it was less than a few of his other cards that have multiple known examples but are part of more desired sets (T207). Within the T207s, his rare backs sell for more than his more common Broadleaf back.

[Leon]

Demand increases value, rarity doesn't.
.

[vansaad]

Demand with rarity can result in very high values, but also a more volatile and illiquid market.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Leon

Demand increases value, rarity doesn't.
.

+1 agree and sometimes being rare also hurts. Something might be desirable but if it is to rare and does not come for sale/auction often then buyers do not know the value or perceived value and either may not bid or buy it or only go for a level that they are comfortable with which might be less then the seller wants to sell it for.
But it is as always worth what someone is willing to pay and what someone is willing to sell for

[Casey2296]

I like my cards like I like my Steak...rare.

[insidethewrapper]

Demand is the most important. With low supply then you really got a great item.

The T206 set is so popular because it has much more supply than the other similiar items of that era, so it is possible to collect most players . So demand and supply makes this a great set. Though I am getting tried of seeing all the T206's in every auction catalog that comes in the mail, page after page.

[Exhibitman]

Ahh, the age-old conundrum: rarity v. obscurity. Leon is right: demand generates value, not rarity. Demand + rarity = $$$$.

If you own a rare card and you want to generate demand for it, probably the best way to do that is to get PSA to slab the card and add it to the player's registry (assuming the player has one). Then the registry participants will chase the card to finish their sets. Another way to up the profile of an obscure rarity is to publish information on it in the hobby press. Collectors cannot add a card to their want-lists unless they know it exists.

[darwinbulldog]

Well it's the ratio of supply to demand, and rarity as a rule (actual rarity, not T206 "rarity") results in obscurity and reduced demand. Whether it reduces it enough to lower the price is -- again -- just a function of the supply/demand ratio.

Generally I'd say if it's a cataloged issue the rarity boosts the value, since there are always going to be some type collectors looking for any particular cataloged type they don't have yet, but for every cataloged rarity out there there are several uncatalogued obscurities that won't attract bidders unless it's a card of a major Hall of Famer (or Shoeless Joe).

[doug.goodman]

Just about everybody on the board owns items that are "more rare than ____" but lack of demand keeps the price down.

Rarity is a part of the equation, certainly, but demand is the important part.

Demand can be two guys vying for an item that doesn't come up often, or demand can be thousands of people wanting an item that there are thousands of copies of, it doesn't really matter.

Rare can mean there is only 1, rare can mean there are thousands, it all depends on demand.

[Leon]

This is rare, and it's Ruth, but it's not that valuable relative to other more mainstream Ruth's..
It is on cardboard stock and is 5 x 7....so size could be another reason for less value.

I wish rarity equaled value.
.

[nolemmings]

Originally Posted by darwinbulldog

Well it's the ratio of supply to demand, and rarity as a rule (actual rarity, not T206 "rarity") results in obscurity and reduced demand. Whether it reduces it enough to lower the price is -- again -- just a function of the supply/demand ratio.

Generally I'd say if it's a cataloged issue the rarity boosts the value, since there are always going to be some type collectors looking for any particular cataloged type they don't have yet, but for every cataloged rarity out there there are several uncatalogued obscurities that won't attract bidders unless it's a card of a major Hall of Famer (or Shoeless Joe).

This.

[Fred]

Rarity can hurt the value if the issue is that rare and not widely collected.

Rarity helps the value of a card if many people want it, even if it is a rare issue.

[doug.goodman]

Originally Posted by Leon

This is rare, and it's Ruth, but it's not that valuable relative to other more mainstream Ruth's..
It is on cardboard stock and is 5 x 7....so size could be another reason for less value.

I wish rarity equaled value.
.

Nice one Leon.

I also have a rare, but not that valuable Ruth, this one from the Blum's Baseball Bulletin set :

[benge610]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

I like my cards like I like my Steak...rare.

I second that, Phil.

Ben
"I love baseball history backstory; especially when it involves cards."

[JollyElm]

Unfortunately, there are now other types of rarity, too.

A card in any way, shape, or form can be a rarity in and of itself, and nearly impossible to ever find, but now we live in the graded world. A thousand of the exact same 'regular' card be immediately located with a click of the mouse in a thousand different places, but say a certain grade of that card has an extremely low POP. That introduces a completely new version of 'rarity' to the equation and blurs the lines even more.

[LincolnVT]

I’ve always been a fan of having extremely rare pieces of players that are household names. I’ve heard the saying that “some pieces are just to rare for their own good”…this is generally followed by a low ball offer…hold on to the top tier HOF rare stuff…over time you will either continue to enjoy having something that very few can own or be able to name your price.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Leon

This is rare, and it's Ruth, but it's not that valuable relative to other more mainstream Ruth's..
It is on cardboard stock and is 5 x 7....so size could be another reason for less value.

I wish rarity equaled value.
.

Leon, what exactly is that? Clearly it is associated with “Babe Coming Home”, but how was it distributed, exactly when, and is a post card?

[drcy]

Sometimes rareness means obscure and people don't know what it is.

A collector had a circa 1850s cloth tintype (tintype photo on cloth instead of metal). I had heard these theoretically existed but it was the only one I've seen to this date. I told the guy it belonged in a museum. He had big trouble trying to sell it for fair $$ because people didn't know what it was or understand how unique it was.

[Fred]

Originally Posted by Fred

Rarity can hurt the value if the issue is that rare and not widely collected.

Rarity helps the value of a card if many people want it, even if it is a rare issue.

Need to change the above sentence to:

Rarity helps the value of a card if many people want it, especially if it is a rare issue.

[FrankWakefield]

You guys all conspired to post this stuff...

REALLY!!!!



Forget demand, for the moment. Don't forget it as to how it affects a card's price, I agree that it pretty much dictates it.

But THE QUESTION had nothing to do with demand. Does rarity help or hurt the value... It can only help it. But the help will be miniscule when compared to demand. I cannot imagine a scenario where rarity hurts value. I'm agreeing that demand is the 800 pound gorilla pulling the purse strings, but that wasn't the question.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by LincolnVT

hold on to the top tier HOF rare stuff…over time you will either continue to enjoy having something that very few can own or be able to name your price.

I've always been drawn to rare/obscure issues for just that reason: when someone wants the card, it's my way or the highway.

[BabyRuth]

Sometimes the only thing rarer than supply is demand.

[glynparson]

It’s supply and demand. Not just supply or demand that determine price.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by glynparson

It’s supply and demand. Not just supply or demand that determine price.

No, not really. It can be a super rare card (low supply,) and if there's not much demand, the value won't be as high as others in more demand. It's common sense actually.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Leon, what exactly is that? Clearly it is associated with “Babe Coming Home”, but how was it distributed, exactly when, and is a post card?

I got it from REA some years back. Most likely a premium given at the show, is my guess. It is a card and not a photo even though it has photo markings on the back. I have never seen another. I just wish Glyn was right on this one....
.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Leon

No, not really. It can be a super rare card (low supply,) and if there's not much demand, the value won't be as high as others in more demand. It's common sense actually.

Actually, you and Glyn are both right to some extent, as it depends greatly on the type of item you are looking to explain the pricing of. When talking about an item that is somewhat of a commodity/constant resource and basically used/consumed once, Glyn's definition of the classic supply and demand marketplace formula is more apropos. That is where the business/economics basis of the supply versus demand dynamic most appropriately comes in to explain the variances in pricing/costs of some items, like with say oil/gasoline prices. There is a fairly universal demand for gas/oil, and at least for now, a perceived unlimited supply to serve that demand. But in this case, both the supply AND demand factors can, and do, change over time, and thus effect the price paid.

As the supply of gas/oil goes up or down, the price will generally conversely fluctuate as well, less supply of gas available equals higher prices, and vice versa. Like back when OPEC really controlled the production/supply of oil and restricted it, and gas prices surged as a direct result in the face of a somewhat constant worldwide demand. But earlier during the pandemic, when a lot of the world was in lockdown, the overall demand for gas/oil plunged because no one was driving anywhere, in which case the price of gas/oil reacted directly in conjunction with that change in demand, and went way down. So bear that in mind, demand works to directly affect prices, whereas supply works to conversely affect prices, in most normal market situations. But by no means are they the sole factors in determining price for commodities and everything else in the marketplace.

However, cards/collectibles are not really the type of normal commodity/item to which the classic supply and demand formula was truly meant to describe how the market works. The one huge difference is that in the case of cards/collectibles, the supply side of the equation is pretty much fixed, and not ever really going to change. In which case, it is really only the demand side of the formula that is subject to change, and thus is often perceived as the only factor that truly matters in determining price. So as Leon alluded to, in the case of a specific collectible item with a somewhat known and forever limited supply, the demand side of the equation is likely going to dominate the pricing of such items.

Still, there are some rare instances though where the supply side of the formula may still come into play. Just think back to the E98 cards and the impact to the market for them from the Black Swamp find. Clearly the pricing of those E98 cards came down to some extent overall, and have now somewhat equalized out after all the time since the find was first made public. And just think of how much money that family may have left on the table by coming out with that find all at once. Quite honestly, had it been me that found those E98 cards, and been the sole heir, I would have milked them for all they were worth. I would have started with only sending in a few of the lesser condition cards to multiple TPGs for grading, and/or contacted different AHs to assist in the selling/grading of such cards, so as to keep the knowledge that these new to the market E98 cards were all coming into the hobby from a sole source as long as possible. Having over 20 different relatives all owning a piece of that inheritance, and many wanting their money now and not later, made that an impossibility though. And thus, after the initial hype and publicity of the find died down, so did a lot of what would have been initially expected to be the new ongoing demand/prices for those cards, based on what E98 cards in then available grades were selling for before the find became public knowledge. Think of it this way, would you as a collector be more inclined to pay a premium today for an E98 card being slabbed and designated as from the Black Swamp find, as you might have been at the height of the find's hype and publicity just after it first became known?

There are many, many variables that ultimately factor in to determining what something ends up selling for, but maybe the most important isn't supply or demand after all. Isn't it really the type/class of person attracted to an item, and how rich and well off those people are? You can have two different 1/1 cards, with exactly two different people that want each card. But if the one card is desired by two different well off multi-millionaires, and the other desired by two different working class guys with families, kids, mortgages, and other debts, guess which card will likely sell for a lot more than the other, despite there being the exact same supply and demand for each card? And this is where hype, advertising, desirability, and all the other non-tangible factors come into play. For example, one of the factors that helped propel the value of the top graded PSA Wagner T206 card is that it was once owned by Wayne Gretzky (Does anyone even ever mention it was co-owned by McNall?) That kind of hype and association amongst famous and well off people is a huge factor in determining an item's worth in many other people's eyes, and whether or not people with greater financial means want to own it and get in on the action. Of course after all the Mastro stuff about that card came out in court, that particular Wagner is now even more infamous than just famous, and probably all the more desirable (ie: valuable) to those with the desire and means to potentially buy, and thus be able to brag and show off, such a well-known card. Meanwhile, how many famous and well-to-do people care, or even know of the existence, of there being a mint E98 card of Wagner?

Supply AND demand will always play some role in the determination of something's price, maybe just not always to the extent we might think otherwise.

[Lobo Aullando]

Giffen good or Veblen good?

New footage tonight at 11.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by BabyRuth

Sometimes the only thing rarer than supply is demand.

Nice card

Remember you only need to bidders at an auction to create a demand that may never have existed on a rare card that never had a demand

[Orioles1954]

"The only thing rarer than this item is a buyer." - Bill Huggins

[Touch'EmAll]

Does rarity help or hurt value.

I think we have all concluded that demand is the real driving force to value.

That said, lets assume we have a high demand card. Then by economic principals, the more rare it it the higher the price. A great example is the T206 Wagner: super high demand, yet relative rarity = super high price.

Lets now assume we have an extremely low demand card. If there is a high supply, then the value will be very, very low. But if it the low demand card is also very rare, it will be worth more than the high supply card.

In both cases, in itself, rarity helps value.

What if we have a card in very high demand, but also very high supply ('89 Upper Deck Griffey PSA 10). It is possible to still get a relatively high price because, as we have said before, demand trump supply.

[benge610]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

Nice card

Remember you only need to bidders at an auction to create a demand that may never have existed on a rare card that never had a demand

Thank you Jeff for saying.
Whether it is auction setting or misc. other scenarios (word of mouth, board, shows, etc); I have encountered other "like-minded's" who see things slightly differently from the norm. A scarcity/rarity, of a player with some kind of back-story (star or not) draws my attention before that of just some guy. I find enjoyment in researching a player with a known rarity; if he seems to be just a baseball guy, I tend to move on. My son, who helps me at shows; has the same vision. In fact, he uncovered a coolness on a subject that is an example of purpose for us in collecting. This leads us to more fun; what it is all about; besides realizing $$$ in rarity development (lol).

An awesome thread, gentlemen; thank you.

Ben

"I love baseball history backstory; especially when it involves cards."

[Snowman]

Rarity is merely a funnel through which the flow of demand gets squeezed. If there's little to no demand to begin with, then the funnel never comes into play and prices remain low. However, if demand is great, then the funnel begins to squeeze demand and the prices increase.

You could think of it like water going through a garden hose. The higher the pressure and the smaller the nozzle, the faster the water shoots out. Rarity is the size of the nozzle on the hose, demand is the water pressure, and the exit velocity of the water is the price.

[sreader3]

Originally Posted by darwinbulldog

Well it's the ratio of supply to demand, and rarity as a rule ... results in obscurity and reduced demand. Whether it reduces it enough to lower the price is -- again -- just a function of the supply/demand ratio.

This nails it. Rarity means low supply but if low supply is characteristic of a set it stifles demand--and it's the supply/demand curve that sets price. T206 Wagner is in the price "sweet spot" because it is in short supply relative to the huge demand arising from hobby lore and its depiction of a legendary player in a widely collected set.

[Topnotchsy]

An important point that has been touched on to a degree by a few posters (but may not have been fully explicated) is the way that with collectibles, supply (and other factors that don't necessarily play a role with traditional items) can play a huge role in demand.

Set collectors (for example) will rarely chase a set that is basically impossible to achieve. The size of the group of collectors chasing the set is likely constrained by rarity. If there are only 2 copies in existence of each card, having more than a few collectors chasing it would be very tiring indeed, and like lead to some collectors dropping out. Sets like T206 (outside of the big 4) and 1933 Goudey have enough copies for hundreds (thousands?) of people to collect the set, while still being somewhat rare.

[oldjudge]

Value is a functiion of supply AND demand. If 10 people want a particular card and there are 100 copies available it will be worth less than if those same 10 people wanted the card and only one copy was available.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

Value is a functiion of supply AND demand. If 10 people want a particular card and there are 100 copies available it will be worth less than if those same 10 people wanted the card and only one copy was available.

Agreed but the premise is usually "it's rare so it's valuable" and that isn't always the case.
.

[JollyElm]

It becomes a bit of a thought experiment.

All or most of us have items that are ridiculously, extremely rare, and in our minds they could easily be traded for a dump truck full of gold. That's how rare they are, and we hold onto them. But if we actually tried to sell them? Market forces would clear the wonderful optimism from our heads, and the amount of gold we walk away with wouldn't fill the back seat of a convertible Hot Wheels* car.

*Don't be triggered if you are more of a Matchbox person.

[frankbmd]

I now have a Babe Ruth card that I have never seen before and cannot find another one on the internet anywhere.

Gosh, it must be really rare and is in decent condition.

Will start accepting offers of $5000 with $1000 increments. The 21 day rule will be in effect. That is, if there is no raising bid for 21 days, it is yours.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by frankbmd

I now have a Babe Ruth card that I have never seen before and cannot find another one on the internet anywhere.

Gosh, it must be really rare and is in decent condition.

Will start accepting offers of $5000 with $1000 increments. The 21 day rule will be in effect. That is, if there is no raising bid for 21 days, it is yours.

Well...we're waiting. What is it?

[BobbyVCP]

Originally Posted by Leon

Demand increases value, rarity doesn't.
.

Nail on the head...