Over/Underpriced HOFers

[cyseymour]

Originally Posted by Jlighter

"Might". If Ichiro doesn't make it into the Hall in 5 Ballots or less I will send you a t206 HOFer.

Thanks!

[rhettyeakley]

Originally Posted by Leon

How in the world anyone can think that someone that won 16 Gold Gloves in a row at 3rd base (Brooks Robinson) is underrated, I don't know. Maybe those folks have never played 3rd?

Leon, 3rd was actually my position growing up, I completely understand his greatness while fielding, the problem is the guy only hit .262 for his career. He was a good ballplayer don't get me wrong but I don't understand why his cards are worth on the level of the higher level HOFers when he was great in the field and mediocre (at best) at bat. No way his items should be trading at the levels of Frank Robinson, Yaz, or Ernie Banks (which is the category that his cards sell at).

[bender07]

Originally Posted by rhettyeakley

Leon, 3rd was actually my position growing up, I completely understand his greatness while fielding, the problem is the guy only hit .262 for his career. He was a good ballplayer don't get me wrong but I don't understand why his cards are worth on the level of the higher level HOFers when he was great in the field and mediocre (at best) at bat. No way his items should be trading at the levels of Frank Robinson, Yaz, or Ernie Banks (which is the category that his cards sell at).

Good Gloves might be the worst way to determine defensive prowess. It's a popularity contest and often handed out by pure name recognition.

[cyseymour]

Originally Posted by bender07

Good Gloves might be the worst way to determine defensive prowess. It's a popularity contest and often handed out by pure name recognition.

Do you think that's the case with Brooks Robinson, though? Or could he flash a little leather?

[Orioles1954]

Originally Posted by rhettyeakley

Leon, 3rd was actually my position growing up, I completely understand his greatness while fielding, the problem is the guy only hit .262 for his career. He was a good ballplayer don't get me wrong but I don't understand why his cards are worth on the level of the higher level HOFers when he was great in the field and mediocre (at best) at bat. No way his items should be trading at the levels of Frank Robinson, Yaz, or Ernie Banks (which is the category that his cards sell at).

It's so strange to me that we are equating Hall of Fame numbers, SABR metrics and then trying to somehow, someway equate them to card values. It's all about popularity and how we celebrate those players. For more than 50 years Brooks Robinson has held the heart of Baltimore. He is Mr. Oriole, the most loved player franchise history by a long shot. The last Brooks Robinson autograph signing I went to near Baltimore, I met no less than three dozen people aged 2 months to 50 years old named "Brooks". I certainly don't think of his .262 batting average when I buy his cards for a premium. I've enjoyed my conversations with Brooks and he has always treated everyone he has met like a close friend. On the other hand, I look at Frank Robinson who clearly has superior statistics....yet there are endless reports of him being a total a** h*** .... I wouldn't give two nickels for him.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by cyseymour

Do you think that's the case with Brooks Robinson, though? Or could he flash a little leather?

No, I think with Robinson, and Clemente, it was warranted. I think today it's a little bit more of a popularity contest.

[Joe_G.]

Originally Posted by Bosox Blair

Our own cyseymour did an analysis back in 2011 of the number of combined graded examples (PSA and SGC) of the OJ HOFers.

At that time, he found that the total graded examples ranged from a low of 19 examples (W. Robinson) to a high of 113 (Ward). However, 15 out of the 27 (as of 2011) had less than 50 combined graded examples per player.

Cheers,
Blair

Blair or Jamie, do you have a link to this? I've posted SGC and PSA pop reports on N172 HOFers a couple times and have interest in the topic but don't remember others doing so (although I could have missed it).

Old Cardboard summarized one of my earlier posts from the old Net54 forum back in 2005 (here). shortly after 2005 I stopped including PSA in my summaries because their numbers seemed to be in error (players would all of a sudden gain or lose a substantial number of submissions). SGC has also graded far more cards so I just stick with SGC.

I more recently looked at the HOFer pop reports after Deacon White was elected. It was no big surprise when I found Deacon to be the rarest HOFer (8 cards graded with no population increase since it was announced last year - December 2012). As for most common, that distinction belongs with Keefe (over 100 graded when including his two player cards with Richardson). Keefe has a pretty healthy lead over Ward for the most common HOFer.

[cyseymour]

Originally Posted by Joe_G.

Blair or Jamie, do you have a link to this? I've posted SGC and PSA pop reports on N172 HOFers a couple times and have interest in the topic but don't remember others doing so (although I could have missed it).

I'll PM anyone who cares to have the link, but will keep it off this board out of respect to Leon.

Thanks

[rhettyeakley]

Originally Posted by Orioles1954

It's so strange to me that we are equating Hall of Fame numbers, SABR metrics and then trying to somehow, someway equate them to card values. It's all about popularity and how we celebrate those players. For more than 50 years Brooks Robinson has held the heart of Baltimore. He is Mr. Oriole, the most loved player franchise history by a long shot. The last Brooks Robinson autograph signing I went to near Baltimore, I met no less than three dozen people aged 2 months to 50 years old named "Brooks". I certainly don't think of his .262 batting average when I buy his cards for a premium. I've enjoyed my conversations with Brooks and he has always treated everyone he has met like a close friend. On the other hand, I look at Frank Robinson who clearly has superior statistics....yet there are endless reports of him being a total a** h*** .... I wouldn't give two nickels for him.

James, I totally get what you are saying, I too have never heard a bad word really spoken about Brooks as a human being, and I can understand his popularity, especially in Baltimore. That being said what you are saying is exactly what this thread is about, which players according to their numbers/stats/SABR/etc. are beloved beyond what they did on the field (ie "overrated" as it relates to them as ballplayers) and which players are somewhat overlooked despite gaudy numbers (ie underrated, if you will).

[tbob]

How in the world can anyone claim Brooks Robinson is overrated and rag on him while at the same time never mention a word about Ozzie Smith as overrated? As Leon mentioned, Brooksy had 16 Gold Gloves in a row at third base and was a real clutch hitter. The Wizard of Oz was a defensive gem at shortstop but how come no mention of his batting numbers while Robinson's are dissected.
Classy on and off the field, Brooks was the leader of team and rock solid his entire career.

[rhettyeakley]

Originally Posted by tbob

How in the world can anyone claim Brooks Robinson is overrated and rag on him while at the same time never mention a word about Ozzie Smith as overrated?

Really? how dare I answer the question as it was presented, seriously. Insert Ozzie's name in the place of Brooks Robinson and the same can be said about him, I tried to stay somewhat vintage and not include the guys who played predominately in the 1980's and 90's. I shouldn't have answered the question I guess when it relates to Brooks Robinson, apparently he is untouchable... His statistics are right there, this isn't about how great of a guy he is, simply from his statistical output the guy is a bit overrated, I thought that is what this thread was about? Feel free to disagree but I stand by what I said, taking out the emotional aspect he isn't on par "statistically" with the players whose cards trade at similar levels.

[Bosox Blair]

Originally Posted by Joe_G.

Blair or Jamie, do you have a link to this? I've posted SGC and PSA pop reports on N172 HOFers a couple times and have interest in the topic but don't remember others doing so (although I could have missed it).

Old Cardboard summarized one of my earlier posts from the old Net54 forum back in 2005 (here). shortly after 2005 I stopped including PSA in my summaries because their numbers seemed to be in error (players would all of a sudden gain or lose a substantial number of submissions). SGC has also graded far more cards so I just stick with SGC.

I more recently looked at the HOFer pop reports after Deacon White was elected. It was no big surprise when I found Deacon to be the rarest HOFer (8 cards graded with no population increase since it was announced last year - December 2012). As for most common, that distinction belongs with Keefe (over 100 graded when including his two player cards with Richardson). Keefe has a pretty healthy lead over Ward for the most common HOFer.

Hi Joe,

It would be great to see your most recent findings on this (even though we all appreciate that pop reports have their inaccuracies!) Maybe a new thread?

Cheers,
Blair

[digdugdig]

I don't know about card value but a dear friend once made a very convincing argument for being overlooked statistically for his time era...Lefty Grove.
His numbers during an era where it seems like the 9th place hitter on most teams was hitting .300 ... some pretty impressive stats!!

[CobbvLajoie1910]

Some one aleady mentioned Chuck Klein. I concur.

George Sisler was a truly GREAT hitter on some awful Browns teams, yet kind of an after-thought playing in the shadows of Ruth, Gehrig, Hornsby, etc.

There are others...

[digdugdig]

Originally Posted by tbob

How in the world can anyone claim Brooks Robinson is overrated and rag on him while at the same time never mention a word about Ozzie Smith as overrated? As Leon mentioned, Brooksy had 16 Gold Gloves in a row at third base and was a real clutch hitter. The Wizard of Oz was a defensive gem at shortstop but how come no mention of his batting numbers while Robinson's are dissected.
Classy on and off the field, Brooks was the leader of team and rock solid his entire career.

The proverbial nail-on-the-head ...as a BoSox fan as a young-un ... I just seem to remember clutch hitting on top of the great glove...I'm guessing Lee May would have some input

[Mark70Z]

By the way Brooks hit .267 for career, not .262 (not including post season). Another great player from the era Johnny Bench @ .267..then a bit later era Mike Schmidt @ .267 career. I believe if you look up the averages for the era I'm sure these three are all above average for sure.

Many just look at the '70 WS and watch the plays Brooks made, but he did it day in and day out throughout his career. It was "normal" for him to make such plays for the Charm City fans, but he became more famous to the public after that series and I believe he was 33 years of age by then...

I "know" I have to pay a premium for his cards.

[itjclarke]

Originally Posted by Mark70Z

Many just look at the '70 WS and watch the plays Brooks made, but he did it day in and day out throughout his career. .

One of my all time favorite plays (which occurred years before I was born, making it more impressive in my mind) is Brooks Robinson throwing out Lee May from deep deep in foul territory with all his momentum carrying him away from 1st base.

I'm a big time Brooks guy and strongly believe that stats don't tell all the story, especially when it comes to baseball card value. So much of what appeals to fans and collectors is totally subjective, so to break down players' OPS+ and how it relates to card values seems like a tough and indirect comparison. Don't get me wrong, I love breaking down stats and love all the discussion and opinions shared so far, but I also think there's a huge gray area involved. A lot of "value" is dicated by soft characteristics, the "warm and fuzzy" stuff- The amount nostalgia, fond memories, even romance a player may evoke (directly related to how beloved he was- see Brooks)... how much exposure he got in his playing days (clutch WS appearances, playing in NYC, etc)... were there cool, iconic sets to support his popularity during and following his playing days (always thought guys like Sisler/Heilman get gyped because they missed CJ and Goudey)... all play a big role in the value of his cards, and I think a much bigger role than stats like WAR, which are valuable but very non romantic.

That said, I'll still add a few.

Underpriced- I second on Sisler, the guy was a hitting machine. I also think guys from the same era like Simmons, Heilman get overlooked... and definitely think Eddie Collins, Tris Speaker, Nap Lajoie deserve some more love. For how great he was, I think Ted Williams' cards deserve a little bump as well.

Overpriced- probably Mantle, but per the above combo of nostalgia, NYC and WS exposure, looks/personality, and very iconic color cards to show him off, I see why he's commanded such a premium.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by markf31

I'll suggest Ralph Kiner. Granted his career was pretty short, lasting only 10 seasons, but the HR numbers he put up in those years are nothing short of impressive. 5 straight season of 40+ homers including 2 seasons of 50+. He led the NL in HRs from 1946-52 and led all the majors in 1947-52. Those 6 consecutive seasons of leading the majors in HRs ties him with Babe Ruth (1926-31) for the most consecutive seasons to lead the majors in HRs.

His 1948 Bowman and 1948 Leaf cards which some consider his RCs as they were the first major sets to feature him, can be had the PSA/SGC 7 range for under $300!

+1. Bill James once wrote that during Kiner's prime, he was the closest thing to Babe Ruth in terms of pure homerun hitting dominance that had been seen to that point in time. Going purely by memory, Ralph had the second best homerun frequency to the Babe (one every 14.1 at bats, versus one every 11.8) prior to the PED era. He drew a tremendous amount of walks, and had a lifetime on-base-% of just under .400 (.398). If he hadn't played for one of the worst teams in the majors, and had instead played for a contender, he could easily have won the MVP three or more times. Lifetime OBPS of .946, if memory serves correctly, which is almost other-worldly for a lifetime .279 hitter (how do I remember all this stuff?? I don't consciously try to!). Six times an all-star, it would have been seven, if he hadn't hit only 3 of his 51 homers in 1947 by June 3, and I believe six seasons of scoring 100 or more runs, despite having no foot speed to speak of!

Rather than his 1948 cards, try finding one of his '47 Tip-Tops--PSA has graded just 6, a number that hasn't changed at all in quite a few years (which probably ties in quite well with REA's statement that there have been less than 10 complete sets of the '47 Tip-Tops assembled in the history of the hobby)!

Despite significant price tags on some of their cards, I also think some of the rarer and more significant DiMag and even Gehrig cards remain undervalued in view of their true status as real legends of the game, not that far down from the Babe himself.

Good topic!

Larry

[CMIZ5290]

How about Johnny Evers as overpriced. Lifetime .270 batting average, and a couple of his T206s bring stupid prices in high grade...Undervalued, I would go with Addie Joss....

[DeanH3]

I would add Hornsby to the list of underpriced. Foxx and Grove are other great choices as well.

I think Mantle is overpriced. Great player for sure but overpriced in my opinion.

[oldjudge]

Hornsby is very undervalued--he is one of the top ten(five?) greatest hitters ever. His rookie Collins McCarthy type cards are very scarce. I think Cobb cards are also undervalued; he is arguably the second greatest player ever.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

Hornsby is very undervalued--he is one of the top ten(five?) greatest hitters ever. His rookie Collins McCarthy type cards are very scarce. I think Cobb cards are also undervalued; he is arguably the second greatest player ever.

+1. IMO, a Hornsby Collins McCarthy is a real treasure--tough, tough card!

Best to all,

Larry

[tbob]

Another HOF Arkansan who is underrated and under appreciated is Lou Brock. Great defensively, solid hitter who just missed hitting a career .300 and speed, speed, speed. Like Brooks he is a true gentleman has a class individual.

[cyseymour]

Brock was not that good. Yes, he had speed, but didn't draw enough walks. Can't hold a candle to Rickey Henderson. Not in Brooks Robinson's league, either, Brooks played a tougher defensive position and was perhaps the greatest defensive 3b man of all-time. Like Brooks, Lou Brock was a class act, though.

[howard38]

[

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by itjclarke

One of my all time favorite plays (which occurred years before I was born, making it more impressive in my mind) is Brooks Robinson throwing out Lee May from deep deep in foul territory with all his momentum carrying him away from 1st base.

Robinson's throw out of May in the '70 World Series is one of the all-time iconic defensive plays in baseball history:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eRQSECBxK8s