Future of the Hobby/ Responses needed

[mintacular]

Big star HOFers, classic/iconic cards especially higher grade will maintain value, all others will slowly decide/soften over the years and 25+ years from will slip even further...

Modern card market will spike and dive within year of production otherwise nosedive, not a worthwhile buy unless you can quick flip them....

JMO, nobody really knows but as stated the current generation (in general) could care less about collecting and therefore "future" not looking good in the Mid 21st century especially as paper goods fall to the wayside, not to mention technological advances could replicate vintage goods

[ullmandds]

it IS interesting how opinions are quite contrasting!!!! Only the shadow knows!

[OFF CENTER TRADING]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

From what I hear, Topps and Bowman sets from the late 40's to the 1960's are soft, and I find that very upsetting. I know the baby boomers who first collected them have gotten older, but those are some of the most beautiful and classic sets ever made. Why isn't the next generation interested in them?

The next generation IS interested in them. You just don't know it or have failed to recognize it. You may not necessarily see us at card shows, but that doesn't mean that we're not out there buying vintage cards and lurking on the message boards.

RLR

[ullmandds]

Ok...thats 2!

[pepis]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

it IS interesting how opinions are quite contrasting!!!! Only the shadow knows!

Oh yes many opinions! but only one fact!
as long as there is SPORTS in this country this hobby will NEVER die
it will go through picks and valleys but nostalgic americans will never let it die!!

[chaddurbin]

Originally Posted by pepis

Oh yes many opinions! but only one fact!
as long as there is SPORTS in this country this hobby will NEVER die
it will go through picks and valleys but nostalgic americans will never let it die!!

but...baseball IS dying. it's turning into a regional sport, fans instantly stop watching when their team is knocked out. a jax/tampa bay nfl preseason game would give the world series a run for ratings.

alot of people is full of crap when they say "i wish the prices go back to 1970s level so i can buy more of what i want..." but i'm practically giddy thinking about that day!

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

True, but while T206's are collected by everybody and his uncle, I can't figure out why 1949 Bowman, or 1953 Bowman, or 1957 Topps are no longer garnering much attention. With T206 so overpriced, why aren't collectors looking elsewhere?

It's funny you mention those sets, as the '53 Bowman Color and 1957 Topps are two of the sets I will be collecting most.

When I see a '53 Bowman Color Stan Musial, Mickey Mantle or Pee wee Reese, or a 1957 Topps Hank Aaron, or Willie Mays, my heart skips a beat.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by chaddurbin

but...baseball IS dying.

I respectfully disagree.

Does the game completely captivate the nation's attention the way it did in the 50s and 60s? Nope. Back in the 50s and 60s, homes that had a television only had three channels. Fast forward to 2013, and everybody has a tablet, a laptop, a smart phone or a portable gaming system. Homes with 3 channels, or a radio, have been replaced by satellite television, or FIOS with HBO, Cinemax, Showtime, the Movie Channel, Starz, etc...200 hundred channels. There are more choices.

But this whole notion that baseball is dying is hogwash. Major League Baseball had the sixth highest attendance in history at 74,026,895. And young people? Maybe less kids play the game. But they are there. We have several family friends with kids, and a lot of them are playing baseball.

As far as the hobby goes, eventually, card companies like Topps will be forced to change their way of doing business, or they will go the way of the dodo bird. When forced to confront their own mortality, so to speak, they will make changes. They will realize that in order to survive, they need to attract new hobbyists.

I hope that the next MLB Commissioner make the changes necessary to attract more younger viewers. The game is great, and has so much to offer.

[chaddurbin]

live attendance is a totall different animal. the nhl has seen an uptick in live attendance overall the past few seasons, doesn't mean the sport is "growing". with many mlb teams trying to monopolize their brand and creating their own channel/regional network where consumers have to pay, that means even less exposure in some area or homes that don't have cable and unwilling to pay. luckily mlb was smart with their online presence, i think they were the first to capitalize on the digital content and is a big part of their revenue now.

[glynparson]

1. I see the hobby as trading card collecting, much like Burdick, not just baseball card collecting and many have pointed to the kids growing interest in non sport products like Magic and Pokemon. This can easily lead to vintage non sport collectors who may also turn to some sports cards. I also see a lot of kids buying football cards.

2. The market is global now not just the US, couple that with our own rising Latino population. A culture were baseball is certainly still revered. As they gain a stronger economic foothold in our society and gain more disposable income I could see some values rising, particularly on some Latino legends such as Clemente.

Like I said in a previous post I have been hearing the hobby was dying since I started selling cards. There will be a trading card hobby full of many collectors for at least all of our lifetimes.

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by OFF CENTER TRADING

The next generation IS interested in them. You just don't know it or have failed to recognize it. You may not necessarily see us at card shows, but that doesn't mean that we're not out there buying vintage cards and lurking on the message boards.

RLR

Glad to hear there may still be hope for the sets from the 50's. I think they are some of the best baseball collectibles out there.

[larrie804]

Yes, I am an old man (collector/dealer)! I am positive about the hobby's future...however, it is, IMO changing! First, I disagree with the broad statement that it is just a group of old men! A study on the board shows the average age of Net54 members to be in their early 40s...I do not consider 40 to be old! Secondly, as a dealer who does medium size regional shows (Chantilly, Raleigh, Greensboro, etc. I see more young folks now than 10 years ago!

I do see collecting interests changing! The biggest changes are two....those willing to pay stupid money for autos acquired in person at shows (Chantilly and the National) is increasing and the second (I like to think positive movement) is the increase in the past 5 years in vintage cards. My definition of vintage here is pre-1970!

[markf31]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

it IS interesting how opinions are quite contrasting!!!! Only the shadow knows!

It has been a very interesting thread to read so far. I think the hobby will be fine personally. I don't believe that you can point to the decline in the number of brick-n-mortar stores or card shows as an indicator that the hobby is slipping, fading away or will go away anytime soon, it simply means the methods and means of propagating the hobby have changed.

I would be willing to bet that more hobby transactions are made on a daily basis now than ever before! How many AH auctions close each month? How many Ebay auctions/listings end each month? All of these transactions have filled the hole created by the decline in the number of card shows and brick-n-mortar stores.

[ullmandds]

larry...the fact that you say more and more people are paying crazy prices for autographs is insane to me. the show coming up in MN next weekend...some of the signers are charging crazy prices...to the extent that if you pay Bo JAckson over $100 for a sig...you've lost money as soon as you walk out the door...I don't get it!

Where's the satisfaction in paying someone to grumpily sign your shit...to me an autograph was always about the experience and the lucky/chance occasion you happened to meet/run into that person and had the luck to snare their autograph...it was more about the experience.

Times change!

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

.............if you pay bo jackson over $100 for a sig.......you've lost money as soon as you walk out the door.............

Bo Knows ...... Ben?

[jlehma13]

Originally Posted by mintacular

Big star HOFers, classic/iconic cards especially higher grade will maintain value, all others will slowly decide/soften over the years and 25+ years from will slip even further...

I would venture a guess there will continue to be a market for the low grade vintage cards as well. I wouldn't have gotten into collecting cards again had there not been an affordable way to do it.

Also, I cannot quote the latest age poll that was taken here however, the number of members in their 30's (myself included) I believe was fairly high. That's a good sign for now. Where the next generation's interest lies in the hobby, I don't know. Keep it to collecting and friendly interactions and the hobby may have the chance to grow.

[campyfan39]

Thanks everyone for the responses!

[Tanman7baseball]

I read through the seven pages and needless to say I'm disappointed in the older collectors/dealers on this thread. Baseball is dying? That is one of the most ridiculous things I've ever heard. I've played baseball my whole life up until last year and I've never seen so much interest in this sport by people my age today. The game is becoming exciting. It's becoming international. I respect the game and love the history, but back then baseball was a national pastime because there was nothing else to do or watch... It might not be a national pastime now but still has a more than strong following. The old-timer era of baseball is going away. Today baseball players have what you call "swag". The showmanship and cockiness that the stars today are what kids emulate tomorrow. The game is evolving to appeal to the average short attention spanned American. Anyways, I do not wish to go on but hearing that baseball is dying just seemed to me to be a very skewed view...

Back to the O/T. The reason why you don't see kids and early to mid-twenty year olds is because they can't afford to be in this hobby. Even if they could buy the $5-10 modern packs, I feel they have this view instilled in their brain that if this pack doesn't have a relic/auto these cards are worthless. Therefore, if I can't buy the whole box which is guaranteed a hit then why waste my money on a pack that's not guaranteed a hit. Also, there's just too many options for the average kid. I want to buy vintage cards but most of the time I have to just sit and wish. I started collecting when I was 10 years old back in 2002. My grandfather got me into the hobby and fueled my future addiction to the hobby. I only bought modern cards because I didn't know any of the post-war or pre-war players. I started buying SP Legendary Cuts because I wanted that cut-auto of Mickey Mantle. I found myself intrigued by the players on the cards, but knew none of their names. I read Beckett religiously back then and was curious to why this player was "worth" more than this player. That's where I began my journey searching their stats and records. Soon I found out why Tris Speaker was worth more than Rogers Hornsby and so on. The history was fascinating. Unfortunately, my grandfather passed away of cancer in 2004. Collecting cards was too expensive for me so I stopped. The only thing I could afford was a Beckett subscription... Now that I'm older and have money, I'm back collecting in full force but this time only vintage.

Sadly, I must admit I personally know only a few collectors my age... I know hundreds of people who love baseball but only a few of which who know John McGraw or even Carl Yastrzemski. My point is that to collect vintage cards and not get caught up in the gambling game of modern cards, there has to be a connection to the history. I don't think 50-60s cards are going to rise in value. Really I don't see any common cards of most sets pre-1970 going up in value. As more years pass today's semi-stars won't even be sought after. I do truly believe the true heroes, legends, and superstars will continue to rise as long as the game of baseball continues. There are just too many post-war/pre-war cards being hoarded by baby-boomers right now. Card prices are high because you have all the old guys wanting to buy their dream cards for their bucket list. I'd love to see a percentage of cards bought over $1000 by collectors over the age of 40. Unfortunately, when they pass the market will be more than flooded. Prices will drop. Panic from the few left will fill the forums. Luckily, I will be there to embrace this flood. There is light on the other side of the tunnel.

[t206trader]

Tanman makes some good points. As someone who is 26 and only recently (within the last five years) got into the vintage hobby it is definitely an older persons game. I've done modern cards since I was about 18 and even modern cards are priced out of most kids range today. Why get a pack of cards that costs five or six bucks and has about a 1:10 chance of something noteworthy when you could spend your money on the countless other toys/games available today? Kids don't sit around and trade cards anymore. Realistically, someone should only considering entering vintage cards if their income is significant. Tons of other collectibles are in the same "state" as cards. Ever seen the amounts of old guys at a coin show? How about the surge of older guys buying up "rare and valuable" beanies during the beanie baby crash? The fact is that while children are great to see in the hobby, they simply can't afford anything significant with a $5 a week allowance...

[Republicaninmass]

the nhl has seen an uptick in live attendance overall the past few seasons, doesn't mean the sport is "growing".

I disagree, I think Hockey is growing, at least in cold states

[bn2cardz]

I am the father of 3 young children (3, 23months, 10months) and the two older ones like watching baseball and looking through my cards. The problem is that they don't get the chance to see MLB games because it isn't carried by non cable channels on week nights until the World Series. It comes on during weekends, but they are typically napping during weekend games and I am too busy to sit down and watch anyways. I might catch one here and there but not every weekend.

I am not going to buy a cable package just to watch baseball. I can do MLB online, but then I won't get to watch the Cardinals because it will be blacked out. So MLB has made it hard for people like my family to remain fans. I think the main thing that has helped is that the Cardinals have been in two World Series since my oldest was born so she has listened/watched those games. Also the All-Star game is still on non cable tv. As far as "baseball" (as far as the kids are concerned) they are fans because I play softball, and we have a local team that is in the Frontier League so we go to those games.

It is too early to say if the kids will keep enjoying the hobby, but unless they have more of a chance to watch MLB games without having to go to friend's houses then I don't see them growing up to be fans (at least not the way I was as a child).

[BigJJ]

I believe the question presented is the future of cards, and not memorabilia as well.

I believe the future of cards, is old cards, and not new cards.

Cards were the internet.

They were a way for kids to see images of their favorite players, and to know the players' statistics and awards, at any moment desired. Today this is accomplished by the internet. In my opinion, cards are an outdated 'technology'.

I actually think stamps and coins are comparable in this regard.

It appears that the peak of - new - baseball card collecting - from packs - and by young kids (not adults gambling) - was 1950-1995. These are the primary collectors today, purchasing what was wanted in youth and/or after.

The current generation is not card crazy the way we were. Those who have younger children may agree. None of my son's little friends or friends' children collect cards as we did. Cards aren't needed for a picture, or stats - and the kids have videos of the players on-hand, and the latest stats. The stats on cards are outdated shortly after printing.

Once this young generation ages, I do not think it is likely they will have as much of a connection to cards, as they did not use them in youth.

Cards connect us to another time, and not only to baseball being played, but really to the candy store of 1955, 1965, 1975, or 1985. They connect us to our grandfathers, to our dads. Cards transcend cards, cards transcend baseball to us. They connect us to another time, to our families, to our youth. This is where much of the value, financial and non-financial comes from.

In my opinion, the value of older cards, that are an example of period-needed technology, pre-1970, will always be a store of value though I am not certain the values will rise, even as population increases, but they will be a store of some value. Cards created after they were 'needed', I think have a tougher future.

With regard to memorabilia, I think pre war and also post war game used equipment sells for peanuts. How a top early game used Ty Cobb bat can be 50-100k, or a game used Ty Cobb jersey is 500,000k, or a Mickey Mantle game used bat is 15k, or a Jackie Robinson jersey is 300k, is crazy to me. They should be 5 times the price. Compare the prices with post-1900 art, or cars, these pieces should be much more.

Autographs, more are signed every day, both of the alive and the dead, tough market going forward. What happens when there are more Babe Ruth signatures than minutes he was alive?

Game used is interesting though. Even if they put Jeter in a new jersey every night, they -likely- won't have him in a new jersey every inning. But even if they did, there is a limit. And with game used there is a connection - to the actual player - playing the game - which everyone can relate to - all generations - forever.

[sforaker]

I agree with Jon. Pre-1970 or 1980 cards will be a store of value, with cards of the iconic Hall of Famers having the best chance for appreciation (though appreciation among this subset is still uncertain given that newer generations will not have grown up collecting cards). I also agree with Jon that vintage game used material of iconic Hall of Famers, particularly that with strong provenance, is undervalued and has the best opportunity for future appreciation. These items are pieces of history, that bring you as close to the game as possible, are of very limited supply and with likely high continued demand (including among those that love baseball but may not have collected cards). Some items are also one of a kind. I collect both cards and game used but have become much more interested in game used given the uniqueness and historical nature of some of this material.