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  #1  
Old 06-14-2012, 10:05 AM
100backstroke 100backstroke is offline
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Default Has (most) everything good been graded

I am thinking that 80-90+ percent of all good cards have already been graded by either PSA or SGC. Sure there is the old grandad collection that the relatives just discovered. Or a tiny minority of real collectors refuse to get into grading and keep raw. But that is the exception rather than the rule.

How many PSA 5 or higher T206 Cobb's still sit ungraded, or how many 1933 Ruth's or Gehrig's have yet to make their way into an SGC holder. Or even 1950-60's Hank Aaron cards in PSA 8 or equivalent not yet graded?

You really think one can attend the National or any other large show and pick up rock solid untampered with major vintage HOF'ers ungraded? Really? Or spot that diamond in the rough on ebay that hasn't been trimmed or other?

I just got back from PCGS (coin folks) a submission of early Buffalo nickels - same thing goes for coins. You really think you can steal a deal of a grade suitable key date 1926-S or 1921-S Buffalo nickel? Most coin forums/blogs think fat chance. I did get back a 1915-S Buff in XF40 that is awesome coin, got lucky, but i have to admit several other key dates I submitted came back body bagged with various flaws.

Lesson learned: This day in age, don't even think about it (card/coin) unless it is already graded by reputable third party grader. The odds that you spotted something special raw are worse than any odds in Las Vegas.

Bummer, but true, yes?
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  #2  
Old 06-14-2012, 10:18 AM
markf31 markf31 is offline
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I think 80-90 percent is a high number over all. I do think that when a lot of people think about putting a card up on the market, they're more apt to have it graded first as opposed to selling it raw especially if they're not comfortable with their own ability to grade a card. But there is a very large segment of the hobby that do not like graded cards, will not deal in graded cards or will crack the graded cards out and keep them raw.

After attending the sports card show in Pittsburgh just last month, I can tell you that the raw and ungraded market is very much alive and well in the hobby and I think it's a great thing. From the Pittsburgh show I would venture a guess that perhaps the split is closer to 50-50 for prewar issues. The sets I'm currently collecting T205, 1934 Goudey and 1948 Leaf, raw cards dominated and outnumbered graded examples.
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  #3  
Old 06-14-2012, 10:29 AM
travrosty travrosty is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markf31 View Post
I think 80-90 percent is a high number over all. I do think that when a lot of people think about putting a card up on the market, they're more apt to have it graded first as opposed to selling it raw especially if they're not comfortable with their own ability to grade a card. But there is a very large segment of the hobby that do not like graded cards, will not deal in graded cards or will crack the graded cards out and keep them raw.

After attending the sports card show in Pittsburgh just last month, I can tell you that the raw and ungraded market is very much alive and well in the hobby and I think it's a great thing. From the Pittsburgh show I would venture a guess that perhaps the split is closer to 50-50 for prewar issues. The sets I'm currently collecting T205, 1934 Goudey and 1948 Leaf, raw cards dominated and outnumbered graded examples.


i agree, there is a number of nice ungraded cards out there.
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Old 06-14-2012, 10:31 AM
Cardboard Junkie Cardboard Junkie is offline
David Pierson
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Aloha,I think that the vast majority of pre wwII cards have NOT been graded. Of course there is no way to know for sure but my guess is maybe only 10% are graded. I havent been to a card show for many many years but those who go to a lot of them probably see 100 t-206s for every graded one. jmho. dave
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  #5  
Old 06-14-2012, 10:38 AM
100backstroke 100backstroke is offline
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Default Hmmm.

I scoured ebay this morning looking for mid/high grade vintage major HOF'ers raw - not one single raw card I would consider purchasing that I honestly felt, yes, this is a very nice untampered with grade worthy card of Matty, W.Johnson, Cobb, Ruth, few others.

Maybe you guys on east coast have more shows with honest dealers in raw cards, not where I live, and certainly not on ebay.

Also look at major auction catalogs - Goodwin, REA, nothing for sale raw in higher grade.

Possibly yes for lower grades 1 thru 4, but higher grades no.

If you were to take total of all PSA 5 or higher Red T206 Cobb's, multiply that by, say, 5-10, then there would be hundreds in nice grade still raw? Come on.

Remember, we are not talking commons, wee are not talking low grades, we are talking high grade upper tier HOF'ers.

Right now, an average year Hank Aaron PSA 8 has population little over 200. So you are saying that in a decade or so we may see a 1963 Aaron PSA 8 with population upwards of 800-1000? Again, come on.

Last edited by 100backstroke; 06-14-2012 at 10:48 AM. Reason: add
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  #6  
Old 06-14-2012, 10:49 AM
travrosty travrosty is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 100backstroke View Post
I scoured ebay this morning looking for mid/high grade vintage major HOF'ers raw - not one single raw card I would consider purchasing that I honestly felt, yes, this is a very nice untampered with grade worthy card of Matty, W.Johnson, Cobb, Ruth, few others.

Maybe you guys on east coast have more shows with honest dealers in raw cards, not where I live, and certainly not on ebay.

Also look at major auction catalogs - Goodwin, REA, nothing for sale raw in higher grade.

Possibly yes for lower grades 1 thru 4, but higher grades no.

If you were to take total of all PSA 5 or higher Red T206 Cobb's, multiply that by, say, 5-10, then there would be hundreds in nice grade still raw? Come on.

Remember, we are not talking commons, wee are not talking low grades, we are talking high grade upper tier HOF'ers.

there are millions of cards out there, and waaaay less than .1% on ebay. most nice cards are in peoples attics or collections, and not up for sale. when people want to put them up for sale, then they have them graded and slabbed, but there are a lot ungraded and unslabbed in nice condition because they are in a collection with someone who is not considering selling at this time. Lots of people with unfiinished sets who will probably only get them graded after they are finished and consider selling, not before. just my opinion.
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Old 06-14-2012, 11:12 AM
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egbeachley egbeachley is offline
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For pre-war, I would say around 30%. If someone had a collection 10 years ago, it would not have been graded. If they still have that collection and aren't considering selling it anytime soon, then it's still not graded. I don't think it's unreasonable for collections to remain 'hidden' for 30 years or more.
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  #8  
Old 06-14-2012, 11:22 AM
100backstroke 100backstroke is offline
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Default follow up

If one is a high-end collector, as is myself - with no intent to sell, as is myself - I see (IMO) that the dude will at least send them in for obvious reasons:

a) wouldn't collector want to know if their cards are legit?
b) encapsulating is extra protection against damage
c) would then be ready to sell if opportunity/need arises
d) could unload non-legit cards to keep collection high-end
e) can now be on "registry" - not 4 me but folks do like it
f) have more pride in their overall collection

Everybody has an opinion - I value all your input - thanks.
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  #9  
Old 06-14-2012, 11:33 AM
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Jaybird Jaybird is offline
J@son M1ller
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Just my opinions - not speaking for all...

a) I can authenticate from personal knowledge and hobby friends
b) top loader provides as much protection as plastic
c) grade if and when sale happens (I'm not in a rush), if necessary
d) don't understand what this means
e) not interested
f) pride? I think they are fun but not sure I derive pride from the cards.
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  #10  
Old 06-14-2012, 11:37 AM
Republicaninmass Republicaninmass is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by travrosty View Post
there are millions of cards out there, and waaaay less than .1% on ebay. most nice cards are in peoples attics or collections, and not up for sale.

Beacause there are huge finds every week...again COME ON There might be a handful of Nagy's or Lionel Carter type collectors, but certainly not more than 5-10. When was the last big find of anything pre 1952? Go to a card show, there are hardly any nice raw pre-war cards, maybe at the nationa lthings are different, but I would say 50% of everything is graded, and 90% of people know what they have, or think it is worth much more than it is
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