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Go Back   Net54baseball.com Forums > Net54baseball Main Forum - WWII & Older Baseball Cards > Net54baseball Vintage (WWII & Older) Baseball Cards & New Member Introductions

View Poll Results: What is the condition of the vintage card market today?
Seems to have gotten noticeably softer 16 9.36%
Maybe a little softer in some areas but holding well 50 29.24%
About the same as it was this time last year 34 19.88%
Gotten stonger in many areas, maybe some soft spots 56 32.75%
Going up broadly, rising tide lifting most boats 15 8.77%
Voters: 171. You may not vote on this poll

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  #1  
Old 05-29-2018, 10:53 AM
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Default Poll: State of the Vintage Market Summer 2018

What do you think?
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  #2  
Old 05-29-2018, 11:27 AM
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I voted about the same as last year - except, of course, the things that I am looking for. Those are up 20+ %
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  #3  
Old 05-29-2018, 11:52 AM
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I was thinking about the state of the market this weekend, and convinced myself things were pretty soft. I decided to pick one iconic card or two that could be the canary in the cold mine so to speak. I picked the 33 Goudey Ruths. Not the off the chart rarities, but the nice ones many collectors could be in the market for. The 5s, 6s, SGC 60s and 70s. After 10 minutes of "analysis" I basically came to the conclusion that there was no real conclusion to come to. Some were up a few thousand. . .some were down a few thousand. . .and many were basically where they've been. Not scientific but probably telling to some degree.
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Old 05-29-2018, 12:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kailes2872 View Post
I voted about the same as last year - except, of course, the things that I am looking for. Those are up 20+ %
Yep. Always Murphy's law.
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  #5  
Old 05-29-2018, 12:27 PM
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Depends on what you call "vintage". 1960's? Pre WWII? It seems like off condition 1950's and 1960's are soft. Same thing with lower grade Goudeys, Leaf, and Diamond Stars, except for the big names.
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  #6  
Old 05-29-2018, 12:36 PM
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It seems like nothing goes up except for the stuff I want...
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Old 05-29-2018, 01:06 PM
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I voted about the same as last year, but it seems to me that graded T206's (commons and Hall of Famers) have gone up quite a bit in the past year. It also seems like the prices on graded T3 Turkey Reds are a bit soft right now (except for the big names). T206 rare variations (Elberfeld - Washington, Lundgren - Chicago, etc.) also seem to be down a bit.
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Old 05-29-2018, 01:45 PM
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I still can't get my hands on a reasonably priced G-VG Green Cobb. I didn't try in earnest till last summer - waiting for the boat to come back has made me forlorn.
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  #9  
Old 05-29-2018, 01:49 PM
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I'm sure the answers will depend on what you are in the market for; the Goudey's and T206's I'm in the market for seem to have done well.
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  #10  
Old 05-29-2018, 02:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brob28 View Post
I'm sure the answers will depend on what you are in the market for; the Goudey's and T206's I'm in the market for seem to have done well.
Sure that's true. There is no one market, but many of them. Sure particular things run hot and cold over time. Like real estate or anything else.
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  #11  
Old 05-29-2018, 07:44 PM
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Seems to me that the crazy prices on the ultra high end rookie cards (e.g 63 Rose going for over $500k) have came back down to reality. I understand that many on here think that was due to a small group of buyers propping up the whole market and perhaps that’s right but thankfully it seems the broader market for vintage seems to chug along. In contrast to what others have posted, I think Goudey’s are starting to show signs of life, albeit slowly, after having a really soft market over the past 3-4 years. i think most tobacco sets have pretty much stayed the same overall with the exception of the major HOF’s. I still believe that at some point T202’s will take off once collectors come to their senses lol... but who knows how long that will take.
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Old 05-30-2018, 06:48 AM
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Same card:
Could someone please explain this?? About a 40% drop from '09 to March '18. With another 25% drop from March to May '18. I find this alarming......or fantastic - I'm not sure.

2009.jpg
2018march.jpg
2018may.jpg
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Old 05-30-2018, 11:11 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SAllen2556 View Post
Same card:
Could someone please explain this?? About a 40% drop from '09 to March '18. With another 25% drop from March to May '18. I find this alarming......or fantastic - I'm not sure.

Attachment 317859
Attachment 317860
Attachment 317861
Quite the drop. I used to collect E95, and I noticed that prices on e-cards appeared much stronger in the late aughts. Might have also received a nice bump from the consignor/AH as it was sold through Legendary.

The most recent dip could have been explained by a bad image when compared to the one used by jcvintage.
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Old 05-30-2018, 12:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SAllen2556 View Post
Same card:
Could someone please explain this?? About a 40% drop from '09 to March '18. With another 25% drop from March to May '18. I find this alarming......or fantastic - I'm not sure.

Attachment 317859
Attachment 317860
Attachment 317861
I collect blue chip HOFers and I recently got into E Cards (from t206). Before embarking on an E-Card expedition, I did a deep dive into the market place for Players like Cobb, Wagner, Ruth, Young, Jackson, Plank, Matty. It became very clear that across the board, prices for these E Cards peeked in about 2008, and the same cards are trading at 40%-60% of their 2008 highs. I posted a thread about this asking why, and the two main explanations I received were (1) a few major collectors competing for the same cards and driving up prices and now those collectors are not there, (2) shilling in auctions like Mastro and Legendary (as Sam seems to suggest). BTW- I include confectionary cards in this group as “E Cards”.

That said, I have noticed lately that pries for E, D and T cards of the blue chip HOFers have really gone up; it’s not just t206. In fact, in some cases prices begin to push 2008 highs, which is concerning (I think). Same is true for rarer issues of T Cards, like t204, t213 - t216 (indeed, I just recently gladly paid a shit-ton for a rare t214 victory tris speaker).

The Matty discussed above does not fit this model, but look what has happened with the 1914 CJ Matty. I believe the market for total blue chip HOFers, regardless of card (T, E, Confectionary, post card) is super strong, and the rarer the card, the stronger the market.
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  #15  
Old 05-30-2018, 01:22 PM
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I really don't think we fully appreciate the impact of the Mastro-Legendary fraud and the price manipulation of last year. They created some significant distortions.
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Last edited by Exhibitman; 05-30-2018 at 01:23 PM.
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  #16  
Old 05-30-2018, 01:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Exhibitman View Post
I really don't think we fully appreciate the impact of the Mastro-Legendary fraud and the price manipulation of last year. They created some significant distortions.
Yeah, not to mention a guy who was just found guilty of fraud by a jury who countless people who have held up on this Board as the paragon of virtue in the industry. He who cannot be named. Like Voldemort. Hell, what's a jury verdict among friends.
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  #17  
Old 05-30-2018, 08:54 PM
Vintageclout Vintageclout is offline
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Default Market Pricing

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss View Post
I collect blue chip HOFers and I recently got into E Cards (from t206). Before embarking on an E-Card expedition, I did a deep dive into the market place for Players like Cobb, Wagner, Ruth, Young, Jackson, Plank, Matty. It became very clear that across the board, prices for these E Cards peeked in about 2008, and the same cards are trading at 40%-60% of their 2008 highs. I posted a thread about this asking why, and the two main explanations I received were (1) a few major collectors competing for the same cards and driving up prices and now those collectors are not there, (2) shilling in auctions like Mastro and Legendary (as Sam seems to suggest). BTW- I include confectionary cards in this group as “E Cards”.

That said, I have noticed lately that pries for E, D and T cards of the blue chip HOFers have really gone up; it’s not just t206. In fact, in some cases prices begin to push 2008 highs, which is concerning (I think). Same is true for rarer issues of T Cards, like t204, t213 - t216 (indeed, I just recently gladly paid a shit-ton for a rare t214 victory tris speaker).

The Matty discussed above does not fit this model, but look what has happened with the 1914 CJ Matty. I believe the market for total blue chip HOFers, regardless of card (T, E, Confectionary, post card) is super strong, and the rarer the card, the stronger the market.
100% accurate! Especially when rarity is associated with what I call the hobby’s “Big Eight” (Ruth, Cobb, Wagner, Matty, Johnson, Joe Jax, Gehrig & Cy Young).

Last edited by Vintageclout; 05-30-2018 at 08:58 PM.
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