E-bay has become a T206 market

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Posted By: Seth B.

I'm sure this speaks first to the fact that T206s are the most plentiful and popular of all prewar issues, but especially this past year, has anyone else noticed that e-bay has become primarily a T206 market with the occasional interesting series showing up?
Here's what I mean. At the time of posting, there are 5289 items on e-bay's pre 1930 bb card section. 2043 of those items come up in a search for T206 and T-206, that's a whopping 39% of the category taken up by a single type of card! 50% of the category is T205 or T206 and that's not even counting the misidentified "Old Basebawl Card" or the trash cutouts, miscategorized cards, and reprints that make up a major portion of the section that collectors could care less about. For contrast, there are around 250 (or, a piddling 5%) auctions for pre 1920 caramel cards and Old Judges COMBINED!
Anyone have anything to say for this? Was it always like this (I don't seem to remember that being the case)? I think for those of us collecting things other than the famous tobacco sets, auction houses other than e-bay may now be the way to go.

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Posted By: T206Collector

...always make me a little wary of how much I spend on T206 cards. They are sure abundant, and they will always be the most abundant pre-war issue. There are a lot of people collecting them, which is why the prices continue to stay high. But in the last few years, there really is no evidence that they have been drying up. Quite the contrary.

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Posted By: Joann

I notice the t206's by how many pages I just flip through without stopping, looking for something else. I've been thinking lately that someone must have planted a t206 orchard down in Florida somewhere - there's that many.

Joann

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Posted By: Richard

Maybe it is because:

t206s really make up 39% of the total prewar basball card population out there
t206s and t205s really make up 50% of the total prewar pop out there
pre 20's caramels and OJ's really only make up 5% of the total prewar pop out there.

edited to say: I don't really know the numbers, I am just speculating and adding to the topic of discussion.

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Posted By: warshawlaw

The fact that there are lots of them paradoxically means that they are more popular than ever. Makes sense to me, though. Think of it this way: are you as a "normal" collector more likely to start collecting a set that you can never, ever hope to afford even a beater specimen of most HOFers in, or are you going to collect a set where you can buy nice, presentable HOFers? T206 stays popular in part because it has a ready supply of cards for the average collector to chase after but is not so abundant that everyone can buy a set off the rack at the local card show, like a modern card. It presents a challenge without being impossible.

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Posted By: Seth B.

Richard, I think you're right that the population numbers are on line with e-bay's auctions, but to a point. I certainly wouldn't say that there are 200 T206s for every E90-1 out there (right?), but popularity really drives the market and leads to more T206s crossing hands.
What this means though is that e-bay is tailored to the beginning collector (who has just recently become enticed by the t206 challenge) as opposed to the advanced collector (who has to flip through four pages of t206s to find any interesting rarer issues on e-bay). Is that a fair statement, and is that a recent trend? I've only been buying non-t206s for a short while, and I've seemed to notice that recently, there's slim picking son e-bay and I'm turning towards auctions instead.

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Posted By: Richard

I don't know about the 200:1 ratio between t206 vs. e90, but I am sure that there are many issues where that ratio is accurate. I have seen about a couple dozen E90 cobbs offered in a year, and there could be a couple dozen T206 red portrait Cobbs on ebay any given week. And E90-1 is a "common" caramel issue.

I started by collecting T206s, like every other prewar newbee. But I have since sold every T206 that I had to fund "other stuff."

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Posted By: Rhett Yeakley

Great... now eveybody knows why I don't like T206's!!!j/k
-Rhett

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Posted By: Colt McClelland

What does everyone think about the upside for t206's? Are they a decent bet from an investment perspective, or is the upside limited because they are so much more plentiful than a lot of other pre-war issues? I have recently started picking up some T206 HOF's in mid-grade, and I am curious whay some of the more experienced collectors of this set think. Thanks for any feedback.

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Posted By: Seth B.

I think T206s are about to spike when they turn a century old: can you imagine all the "100 Year Old Card" stuff on e-bay listings in three years! I think we haven't seen the ceiling for those cards yet.

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Posted By: Cobby33

I agree with the proposition that they may "seem" more abundant because they are (for whatever reason) very popular now. I think that a lot of hoarders are unloading them because they can make a profit. I do not think that simply because these sellers are coming out of the woodwork, that there is an unusually-high population. Keep in mind over 500+ subjects were made nearly 100 years ago, not to mention ALL of the variations on backs, etc.

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Posted By: fkw

T206 cards are just extremely common. I remember seeing/reading somewhere that there is roughly 1,000,000 T206 cards out there. If that is true that would make roughly 2,000 of each common card.

And if there are 50 Wagners, that would make Wagner 40 times rarer than what it should be.

Makes you wonder

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Posted By: john/z28jd

The numbers are a little skewed because over 1200 of those t206s listed are in ebay stores and are actual stores inventory,like for instance Mike Wheat has over 300 cards listed on ebay and on his website. The actual number of "new" t206s on ebay per week is about 700-800 but obviously people buy lots and break them up,or buy a card then upgrade so the same card gets listed alot sometimes.

Frank is right,theres about a million t206s in existance and obviously that number wont go up until someone invents a time machine

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Posted By: warshawlaw

Let's say there are 2,000 of each T206 out there. That really is not that large a number given how many of each card are more or less permanently out of circulation at any given time. Just for perspective, consider that an average National reports attendance of about 30,000 people, there are hundreds of thousands of card collectors out there, and a press run for the Standard Catalog is many times the 2,000 figure. If even a small percentage of collectors chase T206 cards, the demand outstrips the supply, which is why there is competition for the cards. When we see T206 Cobbs dropping in price we'll know there is a glut. Until you can get one regularly for $100 I really don't think the T206 sky is falling.

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Posted By: Jim Crandell

I am currently just sitting with my little collection of 150 or so psa 8s but certainly the price collectors are willing to pay on the high end is increasing markedly.

I have received offers of $2,250 per for pop 6 and above commons to $6,500 for pop 1 commons. These are real hard cash offers. Offers for HOF's going up as well.

Debating what to do as prices keep rising.

Dav

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Posted By: Brian

I mean, can there really be 1 million T206s out there? We are talking about relatively fragile pieces of cardboard that have survived 100 years. At least other 100 year old artifacts have a functional nature (lamps, furniture), but what was the impetus to retain these collectibles over a century? Were there a bunch of old-time collectors that had tremendous hoards which, over time have been dispersed? Is it possible that there are a lot of really good fakes floating around? Can someone explain how there can be 1 million real T206s out there? What are the estimates for the number printed?

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Posted By: tbob

is to buy nice T206s in vgex condition. Forget about the PSA 7s, 8s and 9s. They have a real chance of spiralling up in price or crashing way down. VGEXs are nice cards and will retain their value.
To me, the key with T206s is that if some day the value of these tobacco cards disappears, I'll still have a great set of cards that mean a lot to me and display a wonderful history of the game.

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Posted By: Josh K.

It is estimated that the number of T206s printed was in the neighborhood of 370 million (figure curtesy of Scot Reader's great read "Inside T206"). Thus, a survival rate of even a million is fairly small.

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Posted By: Seth B.

Wow, 370 million! there were only about 75 million Americans at the turn of the 19th century, so that's over 20 cards a person, can that number be real? People must have had a serious smoking habit. Does anyone know modern card print runs for comparison, that number seems astronomical.

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Posted By: James Feagin

I think Scott estimated that 0.5 percent survived, which would mean that approximately 1.5-2 million examples exist. There are some cards which are so common, I wouldn't doubt that 10,000 or more exist. In modern terms, I know in the height on mass production that 1989 Upper Deck released over 1million sets, and 1987 Topps almost 5 million. 1915 Cracker Jack actually released their production figures on the back of the card. I would wager that 1933/1934 Goudey is rarer than t206.

James

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Posted By: Josh K.

Seth,

Scot's book can be downloaded for free from Old Cardboard website (link is on the top of the message boards main page). He makes a pretty logical argument for his estimate (which may actually originate from one of the earlier T206 studies - cant recall). There were an awful lot of cigerettes produced back then.

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Posted By: Colt McClelland

Just for kicks, here is the total number of cards graded by PSA for some benchmark issues:

T206 - 53,038
T205 - 12,697
E90-1 - 1,309
E95 - 631
E97 - 142
1915 Cracker Jack - 6,920
1933 Goudey - 32,694
1934 Goudey - 9,882
1952 Topps - 80,180
1961 Topps - 112,731
1972 Topps - 85,101
1975 Topps - 88,112

Obviously, not very scientific, but I think it clearly puts it in perspective. Who knows how many T206's were produced or survived, but it seems to me that T206's are undoubtedly quite a bit more scarce than the mainstream Topps issues, but not even in the same ballpark of most pre-war issues in terms of scarcity. Nevertheless, T206 is one of the most popular sets of all time, so the demand side of the equation will always play an important role in the price.

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Posted By: fkw

Here is another number. I just read in VCBC Issue #26 (page 29) that Art Martineau and Doug Allen's back survey for their book "T206 The First Century" included 437,553 individual T206 cards. Thats nearly 1/2 million T206 cards right there, and they were owned by only 45 collectors participating in the survey. This survey was done in 1997-99.

Frank

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Posted By: Brett

You can't go buy what PSA says, because people crack open their graded cards and re submit them don't they ?

so on card could be graded 10 times for all we know....

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Posted By: Colt McClelland

As I said, the PSA pop report is not very scientific, but I think it gives a good perspective on the amount of T206 out there vs. other issues. All of the PSA pop reports would be overstated based on people cracking cards and resubmitting, but it should apply in a similar fashion across the board and have a minimal impact for the comparison I was making.

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Posted By: Dennis W.

The stat I would like to know is what percentage of vintage cards are fresh to the market new finds as opposed to cards that are just changing hands. You just rarely hear about newly discovered caches anymore.

I'd also love to know what percentage of surviving cards have not been found. For example, what percentage of surviving cards are still locked away in a trunk in someone's attic?

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Posted By: James Feagin

Discoveries happen. Last Fall I bought a lot of 12 t206 from a woman in Washington DC. She was remodeling her house and they fell out of the ceiling. It happens.

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Posted By: Martin Neal

Last year I purchased about 70 t205s and about 15 t206s that I have reason to believe have not seen the light of day for a number of decades. One gentleman still has about 40 t206s that he is considering selling, including a nice Matty.

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Posted By: Ted Zanidakis

T206Collector

You are absolutely correct in your statement.."there is really no evidence
that they (T206's) have been drying up. Quite the contrary."

Two Philly shows ago, a young fellow came to my table with 404 diff. T206
cards. I asked him where did he find them, and he said they were in family's
collection for many years. So, there are still many cards to be found.

Brett

Your comment about re-cycling T206 cards thru Grading Services is a fact.
It tells us that we cannot trust "population reports" as a true measure of
how many T206's are out there. Great Point, Brett.

Scot Reader....

did a tremendous job of researching the T206 cards and provided us with a
well-written document. On pages 21-22, "Survivability"he states.."it seems
highly probable that the number of T206 cards in existence today is in the
low-single digit millions".

The past 25 years I have gone thru many 1000's of T206 cards and I would
say that Scot's estimate is certainly more accurate than any other I have
heard.

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Posted By: Neil

I bet you could get 95% of the set done in one month if price was no object. I think I have snipes on about 100 cards and expect to win 5 to 10%.

Neil

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Posted By: warshawlaw

If price was no object. However, price is very much an object because the demand for T206 is meeting the supply. Like I said before, all of this is nice academic speculation until the real world prices for these cards fall.

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Posted By: dd

i wouldn't a little t206 price crash====more cards for my dollar.

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Posted By: identify7

Actually, I kinda think that Neil's point is valid. One of the attractive features of t206s is their availability. Many more recent sets are much more difficult to assemble 95% of the cards (Batter Ups for example).

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Posted By: Jeff Mohler

As a new collector the reason I am collecting T206 is because of the availability of cards to purchase. I didn't want to start working on a set where I can only buy a card every couple of months. Of course, the beauty of the set is nice too!!

For instance, I found 3 Pinkerton postcards at an auction without knowing what they were. I identified them (thanks to this board!), found them attractive and started looking for more. They are rather scarce. If that is all I wanted to collect, I would be looking for a new hobby. Who wants to look at the same thing month in and month out?

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Posted By: Cobby33

I think that although population reports are "accurate," they may not paint a fair picture of true availability.

For example, comparing any given T206 "variation" to a T206 "common," there are just as many (if not more) of the particular "variation" than the particular "common" on PSA's population report. This does not mean that the variation is more common. This simply means that more people are having the scarce/rare cards graded, per capita, than the commons.

Using the same (mis?) logic, many people may not be grading the lesser-"populated" sets because they may not feel it's worth the cost.

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Posted By: Ted Zanidakis

Cobby33

I'm very glad you said this, because it was the exact argument I presented
two months ago on another Thread regarding T206 "population" reports. I do
not really want to go into the details of that at this point. However, have you
seen what price PSA 6 and 7 T206 commons are getting recently ? At this rate,
we will be seeing a lot more higher grade T206 commons; and, maybe in due
time the Pop. Report will be more reflective of the real distribution of T206's
out there than it is now. It's going to take a very long time, though.

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Posted By: Anson

I think the 200:1 ratio might actually be conservative. But, what do I know

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Posted By: Cobby33

Ted: I agree and have seen the prices these higher grade cards have been going for. The more they get eaten up, I believe that lower supply will command even higher prices -which translates to higher prices for those who need (lower grade) cards which are not available at the high grades.