STATS 101

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Posted By: Jay Miller 

I bid on one item in Slater's Americana Auction last evening. Since the auction had a crazy format where the 10 minute rule didn't kick in until 1:00 AM EDT I left an up to bid 5 increments above my then current high bid when I went to sleep at 12:30. I woke up this morning to find I had won the lot at exactly my up to bid. For all those out there who are better at stats than me, what are the odds of that happening?

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Posted By: Jay Miller

Correction--Four increments above my high bid, not five.

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Posted By: dan mckee

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Hi Jay, I had a very similar thing happen to me about 4 years ago, not with Slater but another auction house that we are all familiar with. If you would like details, email me directly. Take care dan.

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Posted By: mrc32

I took a look at the Slater's auction and was impressed by its size and the prices that many of the lots ended up at.

What was strange, was that I had never heard of this auctionhouse before.

What auctions do you buy cards from? Provide links if possible.

I'll start

http://www.ebay.com
http://www.teletrade.com
and now
http://www.slatersamericana.com

What others are out there?

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Posted By: leon

I think the odds are, unfortunately, directly related to your high bid.....but that is ONLY a guess....otherwise, I need to be with you in Atlantic City gambling.......hope you enjoy your cards.....best regards
ps....we all know about what goes on in these type auctions don't we? I have some personal experience with this kind of stuff....but not in a Slaters...

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Posted By: dan mckee

Slater's has been around forever as well as many others that have been around much longer than ebay and teletrade.

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Posted By: petecld

This is the first time it's happened to you Jay? Lucky you!

I can't remember winning a non-eBay auction item that WASN'T for my max bid.

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Posted By: Jay Miller

I would have thought that the probability of a bidder or bidders topping you the exact number of times to reach your limit bid would be relatively low. I guess what I am hearing is that the probability is not as low as I thought.

No one has commented on the Slater auction format of having the auction close at midnight central time. Is it just me or do you folks think that is crazy late? Tough to get by without leaving an up to bid, especially for us old timers who fall asleep in their oatmeal pretty early. Also, in this auction even if you do not bid before the auction close you can still bid in the extension period. The only disincentive is that you have to increase the high bid by 20% instead of the normal 10%.

Despite the aforementioned problems which are certainly correctible I like the auction and the variety of "lower" price material that it offers. As an aside did you all notice that Rob Lifson is back soliciting material for an early 2004 auction. Competition in the auction business, especially with a quality big auction guy like Rob, can only make things better for buyers and sellers alike.

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Posted By: TBob

I got my M116 blue background Matty last night with my max bid and the final bid was my max bid but it had been high for 3-4 days and I was hanging in there, knowing a lot of people on this board and out in ebayland hadn't discovered Slaters and I might just get a good deal. I did
Other auction links:

http://www.collectibleclassicsauctions.com/
http://www.huntauctions.com/
http://www.sportscardsplus.com/index.html
http://www.19thcenturyonly.org/
http://www.festbergauction.com/
http://www.oldjudge.com/oldjudge/web/index.html
http://www.mastronet.com/index.cfm?Action=DisplayContent&ContentName=Login%20Page
http://www.lelands.com/index.aspx
http://www.oneplacemedia.com/sloateauction/
http://www.csauctions.com/

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Posted By: leon

I hope you know I was being very sarcastic. I would think that the odds would be quite high for going EXACTLY 4 increments to your high bid and stopping.....regards

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Posted By: JC

I was high on a lot before I went to bed last night and I put a "MAX" of 2 higher bids in. In the morning my first bid ended up being the high bid This was my first dealing with these guys... I'll be back for more. I think you hit the lotto Jay, I have a feeling that I might have been one of the people that bid under you

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Posted By: runscott

If you are good at this, then there is a good chance you will get the item for your high bid...exactly.

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Posted By: TBob

Right now graded T206 HOFers still carry a lot of clout with collectors as evidenced by the final selling prices on the EXMT Chance close to $600 and other cards. I know the Johnson ended up over $2k and I believe it was a 6 also.
On the other hand, some of the non-tobacco card sets like M116 and a few others still offer excellent buys.
I have noticed that the generic set, the E91, is starting to move upwards in buying prices. The VGEX Matty in the auction went for a surprisingly high amount. Since there are 3 other cards in that set with the exact same front and picture of "Matty" it makes me think that some collectors who have finished the Tobacco sets are now looking for other sets to move in to. Makes sense, that's what I did with the Sporting Life set and also caramel cards. Look for price increases in these also in the future...

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Posted By: jay berhens

But why would someone who has completed their tobacco card sets start with the horrifyingly ugly e91 set? It's a set that is usually completed last by caramel collectors or collected by people on a budget. Personally, I'd rather have MP& Co cards than e91s, only because they don't reuse the same pictures over and over.

Jay

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Posted By: Albie O'Hanian

I put a few max bids in before I went to bed and won one of the lots for a lot less than my max bid. I have won lots from them before and always been very satisfied.

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Posted By: brian parker

If I ever get my rear in gear I will finish off the rough draft of an article I have written concerning the E91 set(s). The main thesis is that the artwork used in the Series A, and the cards in Series B that were repeated in Series B with the same player designation, are based upon photos of the player, many of which can be traced to photographic images used in other sets of the era. In the Encyclopedia of Baseball Cards Lew Lipset hinted that this might be the case--and it appears that it is indeed true. The very consistent style that is evident in the set is definitely not most people's cup of tea, but I think that this issue has gotten a bum 'generic' rap over the years and that this needs to be laid to rest.

Brian

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Posted By: runscott

In case you don't have it, here's the photo used for the Reulbach card in that set (on right)

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Posted By: brian parker

Thanks Scott for posting the photo--it certainly appears that this photo was utilized as the base for the artwork on the Reulbach card in the E91 set. I will note your help in the article. This is the first full body pose that I have seen to be used--most just used portrait photos, and then have a generic body attached.

And now for a general appeal. The only player in the E91A set that I was unable to locate a photo for was Daniel Shay of the New York Giants. Does anyone have a photo to share of him, or can point me in the right direction? Any help would definitely be appreciated.

Brian