Will SGC Over Take PSA

[Johnny630]

In lieu of all the uncovered Altered Vintage Cards, the largest number being in PSA Slabs, will SGC come out of this as the number 1 TPG or Will PSA still Stay On Top ?

What’s everyone’s thoughts on this ?

[swarmee]

Hmmm... what, a 2% market share company taking over a 60% market share company? Are you really serious? And a company that has a great online presence versus one whose Set Registry is "Coming Monday"...
I vote no.

[sycks22]

I honestly don't think this scandal will hurt their business all that much. PSA cards will forever bring a premium over SGC.

[Leon]

SGC has a great opportunity. I wish they would seize it
I feel they are more consistent even though I don't always agree with them.

[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

In lieu of all the uncovered Altered Vintage Cards, the largest number being in PSA Slabs, will SGC come out of this as the number 1 TPG or Will PSA still Stay On Top ?

What’s everyone’s thoughts on this ?

Here are my thoughts:

This notion that there are fewer altered cards sitting inside SGC holders because their graders are better is false. SGC is just not as targeted as much as PSA is. PSA cards sell for more and this is the reason why trimmers want their cards in PSA holders. BODA understands this and they have probably spent more time looking at PSA graded cards.

This scandal is not enough for SGC to take PSA's crown. A lot more things would have to take place in order for that to happen. For example, PSA would have to get sued left right and center, collectors would have to turn on them, the company's stock would have to drop massively, SGC would have to develop an amazing technology that allows their graders to catch trimmed cards, etc. Right now, I just can't see any of that happening.

[oldjudge]

LOL, No

[Fred]

Somehow SGC gaining market share that surpasses PSA seems a bit unlikely. A lot of vintage hobbyist think the world of SGC, however PSA is just a monster in comparison.

It would be interesting to know what the market share is between SGC and PSA for vintage card grading.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

It doesn't help SGC that they seem to step on their, um, parts, every opportunity they get to nibble into PSA's market share. They fail to capitalize on opportunities a LOT.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by samosa4u

Here are my thoughts:

This notion that there are fewer altered cards sitting inside SGC holders because their graders are better is false. SGC is just not as targeted as much as PSA is. PSA cards sell for more and this is the reason why trimmers want their cards in PSA holders. BODA understands this and they have probably spent more time looking at PSA graded cards.

This scandal is not enough for SGC to take PSA's crown. A lot more things would have to take place in order for that to happen. For example, PSA would have to get sued left right and center, collectors would have to turn on them, the company's stock would have to drop massively, SGC would have to develop an amazing technology that allows their graders to catch trimmed cards, etc. Right now, I just can't see any of that happening.

Boda has found altered cards in all 3 TPG's holders.

[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by rats60

Boda has found altered cards in all 3 TPG's holders.

Right, but majority of them are inside PSA holders. This is why the OP started this thread.

[ValKehl]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

In lieu of all the uncovered Altered Vintage Cards, the largest number being in PSA Slabs, will SGC come out of this as the number 1 TPG or Will PSA still Stay On Top ?

What’s everyone’s thoughts on this ?

Fat chance of this happening! SGC doesn't have the management leadership to achieve this.

The best chance I can see for diminishing PSA's huge lead is for Beckett and SGC to combine, with the SGC Division of the combined company specializing solely in vintage cards (say pre-1950 or pre-1980).

[frankbmd]

If SGC hired Joe Orlando, would that make a difference in anyone’s opinion?





Caution: This is a hypothetical. I have no insider information, and I am unable to whistle.

[Johnny630]

SGC cards are selling stronger and stronger

[insidethewrapper]

Hmmm... what, a 2% market share company taking over a 60% market share company?

Who has the other 38 % market share ???
__________________

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by insidethewrapper

hmmm... What, a 2% market share company taking over a 60% market share company?

Who has the other 38 % market share ???
__________________

PRO and GEM

[swarmee]

Originally Posted by insidethewrapper

Hmmm... what, a 2% market share company taking over a 60% market share company?

Who has the other 38 % market share ???
__________________

I was making estimates, but I can assure you Beckett dwarfs SGC.

Current eBay listings with the following keywords: 1,052K total hits
BGS, BVG, BCCG: 269K (25%)
PSA: 727K (69%)
SGC: 56K (5%)
I realize the results are somewhat skewed because people will name drop PSA more often than the other companies, but it loosely follows my guesstimates.

[CMIZ5290]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

In lieu of all the uncovered Altered Vintage Cards, the largest number being in PSA Slabs, will SGC come out of this as the number 1 TPG or Will PSA still Stay On Top ?

What’s everyone’s thoughts on this ?

Really?????

[CMIZ5290]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

SGC cards are selling stronger and stronger

Johnny, why don't you check out resale prices between the two.....

[CMIZ5290]

Originally Posted by sycks22

I honestly don't think this scandal will hurt their business all that much. PSA cards will forever bring a premium over SGC.

+1, huge premium....

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by ValKehl

Fat chance of this happening! SGC doesn't have the management leadership to achieve this.

The best chance I can see for diminishing PSA's huge lead is for Beckett and SGC to combine, with the SGC Division of the combined company specializing solely in vintage cards (say pre-1950 or pre-1980).

The bold part.

My opinion has always been SGC is run/staffed by a bunch of serious pot heads. They do just enough to get by and do a really good job at the littl they do. There is no way they are going to do something that might cause them to do any more work that they absolutely have to. For full disclosure they are by far my favorite grading company.

[swarmee]

Originally Posted by bnorth

They do just enough to get by and do a really good job at the littl they do.

Well, not really.

[Yoda]

Originally Posted by ValKehl

Fat chance of this happening! SGC doesn't have the management leadership to achieve this.

The best chance I can see for diminishing PSA's huge lead is for Beckett and SGC to combine, with the SGC Division of the combined company specializing solely in vintage cards (say pre-1950 or pre-1980).

What a great idea and perhaps the only viable way to threaten PSA's dominance.

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by bnorth

The bold part.

My opinion has always been SGC is run/staffed by a bunch of serious pot heads. They do just enough to get by and do a really good job at the littl they do. There is no way they are going to do something that might cause them to do any more work that they absolutely have to. For full disclosure they are by far my favorite grading company.

Hey, that's my business plan as well and it's worked out pretty well for me. When I told my friend who owns his own medical clinic I was bringing in 150K for 10 hours a week, he told me to get out there and WORK fatso. He was working 60 per week and making about 400 hated his life and I loved mine.

10 years later, I'm up to nearly 30 hours per week and you know what? Work is overrated.

[The Nasty Nati]

Not if SGC continues to make slabs with large numerical grade numbers. Who are they trying to appeal to? 80 year olds with terrible eye sight. Always loved their customer service, the black cases, but the massive grades are such an eye sore. I’ve personally stopped submitting to them as a result.

That and they need to fix their Pop Report...it’s been a work in progress for over 2 years. That’s way too long. I’m pulling for them though.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

SGC cards are selling stronger and stronger

Not mine.

[rdwyer]

Isn't their turnaround time a year? If they bought out PSA, then it would be a 5 year turnaround.

[Duluth Eskimo]

Originally Posted by Leon

SGC has a great opportunity. I wish they would seize it
I feel they are more consistent even though I don't always agree with them.

I agree it’s a great opportunity for them, I don’t think they’ll be able to grasp it.

[OldOriole]

Originally Posted by swarmee

I was making estimates, but I can assure you Beckett dwarfs SGC.

Current eBay listings with the following keywords: 1,052K total hits
BGS, BVG, BCCG: 269K (25%)
PSA: 727K (69%)
SGC: 56K (5%)
I realize the results are somewhat skewed because people will name drop PSA more often than the other companies, but it loosely follows my guesstimates.

Might be better to look at actual VINTAGE cards slabbed by the 3 TPG's and be accurate. And, since the OP started this by mentioning the altered VINTAGE cards maybe we should look at VINTAGE sets. Afterall, I don't think anyone is claiming SGC is about to take over all of PSA's market share - they're looking at the vintage card market. Since many folks here collect SGC graded vintage cards and this is in the pre-war category, let's actually look at the numbers of cards graded by Vintage set:

SET
N167 PSA 15 SGC 39 Beckett 3
N172 PSA 4,982 SGC 9,709 Beckett 230
N173 PSA 58 SGC 433 Beckett 0
E90-1 PSA 5,100 SGC 5,597 Beckett 207
T206 PSA 242,222 SGC 115,250 Beckett 11,141
E98 PSA 1,742 SGC 1,430 Beckett 94
M116 PSA 6,916 SGC 4,546 Beckett 173
T201 PSA 10,182 SGC 5,822 Beckett 505
T202 PSA 11,000 SGC 6,038 Beckett 383
1914CJ PSA 4,826 SGC 2,894 Beckett 219
1915CJ PSA 13,231 SGC 6,688 Beckett 231

You get the idea....SGC is already a major force in grading vintage pre-war cards. If you don't like their services that's fine but you can't blow them off as a minor player - at least not in the vintage card market. They already hold their own and, in some cases, have graded more than anyone else (in the case of Old Judges, almost twice as many as PSA). To each their own, but I thought actual data might be better than "guesstimates".

[terjung]

In my opinion, SGC's big chance to gain market share was around 10-12 years ago (+ or -). Once Brian Dwyer departed to start Sterling (and later take over REA), their opportunity dwindled. If they could've somehow gotten him to take over SGC's operations, they could've had a shot. Suffice it to say that I think a lot of Dwyer and believe that he would've been able to point that ship in a better direction - from a change in plastic holders to a revamping of a registry to marketing. It would've taken a lot of work and I don't think SGC would've overtaken PSA, but SGC could've been a Pepsi to PSA's Coca-Cola.

[ValKehl]

Dave, thanks for providing the the comparative pop report numbers for some of the most popular pre-War sets. I assume your SGC numbers are taken from their legacy pop reports, which I believe haven't been updated for a couple of years or so, which makes you comparisons somewhat misleading. Also, I'm surprised that you didn't include pop numbers for the T205, T207, and 1933 Goudey sets, which are very popular pre-War sets.

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by Leon

SGC has a great opportunity. I wish they would seize it
I feel they are more consistent even though I don't always agree with them.

This...

[steve B]

Originally Posted by Fuddjcal

Hey, that's my business plan as well and it's worked out pretty well for me. When I told my friend who owns his own medical clinic I was bringing in 150K for 10 hours a week, he told me to get out there and WORK fatso. He was working 60 per week and making about 400 hated his life and I loved mine.

10 years later, I'm up to nearly 30 hours per week and you know what? Work is overrated.

What do you do?

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by The Nasty Nati

Not if SGC continues to make slabs with large numerical grade numbers. Who are they trying to appeal to? 80 year olds with terrible eye sight. Always loved their customer service, the black cases, but the massive grades are such an eye sore. I’ve personally stopped submitting to them as a result.

That and they need to fix their Pop Report...it’s been a work in progress for over 2 years. That’s way too long. I’m pulling for them though.

The large and singular grades now were an effort to fix the mistake of the confusing dual grade system that they used for years with the 100 point scale. (i.e. a 7 NM is also an "84", and 8 NM-MT is an "88" and so on and so forth). So yeah, the grades are large, but that was kind of the point to make things simpler. I'd give them a break there. Are large numerical grades really an eyesore over PSA's tired red folder labels? At least an equal argument could be made over the hokey look there, and some of the old slabs before they had holograms or lighthouse insignia had flips that would twist and wrinkle inside the slabs - not very professional at all.

For my money, I will take SGC for their black slab inserts, overall nicer slabs, and superior customer service and turnaround times. I think so much of the actual look is just perception and preference - oh, BTW - you will see a lot fewer postwar cards "bounce around" in their slabs with the SGC insert than they do in PSA's with their rail system. Older vintage - mainly 1950's and earlier - do fine in PSA slabs, but they have yet to figure out the thickness thing for many 1970's and later issues. This has always driven me nuts. No, unless you go play football with a PSA slab you aren't really apt to damage anything noticeably - but the cards that do move inside the slabs are annoying, to me at least.

Let the large numerical grades grow on you. I have no problems with them whatsoever.

[swarmee]

Despite the fact that SGC has graded a bunch of those issues, those sets are still a niche compared to the overall graded card market. If you want to argue pre-1980s, I have no problem conceding Beckett is solidly in 3rd place. But to overtake PSA, you'd have to overtake them.
But here's a helpful question to gauge the market reaction and whether SGC is actually increasing: How many of those cards in the SGC pop report are cracked out in favor of getting into PSA slabs? How many are going the opposite direction?

I am not lauding any of the companies. They all have major faults that they seem to be sticking their heads in the sand about. But in order for SGC to ever get close to PSA long term, they first have to pass Beckett. Older collectors already have their favorite; it depends on the modern guys currently collecting BGS slabs to convert to SGC for vintage for them to gain any market share.

[OldOriole]

Originally Posted by ValKehl

Dave, thanks for providing the the comparative pop report numbers for some of the most popular pre-War sets. I assume your SGC numbers are taken from their legacy pop reports, which I believe haven't been updated for a couple of years or so, which makes you comparisons somewhat misleading. Also, I'm surprised that you didn't include pop numbers for the T205, T207, and 1933 Goudey sets, which are very popular pre-War sets.

Val, yes, I took the SGC numbers from their legacy pop reports so you are correct - if anything those numbers are lower than actual. I thought about adding a few more sets but didn't know how much interest there would be and it took a little bit of time because, as we all know, SGC's database leaves a lot to be desired.

I agree with most on here that there's quite an opportunity for SGC here, just not sure they'll take advantage of it. I'm an SGC fan for my personal collection, but the clean up/reset for their registry and their pop reports is crucial and they can't seem to get out of their own way. That said, I like the product, the grading, and the holder so it's SGC for me.

[Dpeck100]

There is a zero percent chance that SGC takes over PSA in the third party card grading business.

A busy month for SGC can be 10,000 cards. PSA is averaging 225,000 a month. Whether one likes PSA or not you can't reverse a market share scenario like this. The only scenario would be if some on this boards dream came true and PSA got shut down but obviously that isn't going to happen.

I don't know what the exact number is today but in investor presentation materials in the last five years PSA had it at 89% of total graded cards. Generic searches on EBAY can land in the high 70's to low 80's but obviously this isn't a perfect science.

SGC simply doesn't have the infrastructure to compete. As PSA's submission volume swelled so did their wait times and you can't prepare for a huge increase in volume quickly in an industry like this.

PSA is making some money but this isn't a business with massive profits so once again it is hard to ramp up production.

The area where PSA was so smart is they worked on their brand. Collectors like to see uniformity in their collections and so branding was paramount in them taking over the market. They are close to a monopoly at this point because cards in their slabs sell for such a premium in many cases to other third party grading companies so it almost forces the consumer to use them if they want to maximize value.

They have increased prices every year for grading in the nearly ten I have been collecting graded cards consistently and volumes have gone up significantly too. No one is taking over that is for sure.

[MVSNYC]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

LOL, No

This.

[Griffins]

Originally Posted by frankbmd

If SGC hired Joe Orlando, would that make a difference in anyone’s opinion?

Both companies would improve.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Griffins

Both companies would improve.

That is funny.

[Frank A]

I continue to watch many of the auction house prices, and in many more cases than before SGC is outselling PSA graded cards. No, I don't believe they will overtake them, but I do believe that SGC cards will have a large rise in prices.

[Promethius88]

Originally Posted by Frank A

I continue to watch many of the auction house prices, and in many more cases than before SGC is outselling PSA graded cards. No, I don't believe they will overtake them, but I do believe that SGC cards will have a large rise in prices.

That's interesting. Can you give some examples? I'm not huge into pre-war but dabble with a few here and there.