Comparing a cards scarcity/rarity to a T206 Wagner

[BobC]

Rarity has to do with the how many there actually is of an item. Scarcity has to do with how many of an item there is versus how many people want one (ie: demand). That is why I suggested somehow bringing in that demand factor to the numbers Pat had worked. Technically, what Pat is measuring is just the rarity of particular cards to the total number of all other cards in the same particular sets. It doesn't necessarily speak to how rare a particular card is to how many of each of all the other cards are out there. T206 Wagners are rare in relation to most all other T206 cards out there, but are by no means that rare when compared to all the other cards out there in all the other sets that have fewer existing cards than there are T206 Wagners. And there are an unbelievable number of very many cards that are much, much rarer than T206 Wagners are. But because so many people collect T206 cards and want/need that Wagner for their collection, the number of those Wagner cards that exist can't even come close to satisfying the demand for them, making them extremely scarce. Much more scarce than most all cards that are actually much rarer than a T206 Wagner.

To put it another way, if only one of a particular card exists, that is the rarest an item can be, a true one of one. But now say there is only one person in the whole world that really cares about and collects that card, and they go out and buy it. There was a total supply of only one of that card, and it completely satisfied the entire demand there was for that card. And since that one single card fully met the demand that was out there for it, the card isn't scarce at all. Extremely rare, yes, but scarce, absolutely not.

The bigger problem then is how do you actually measure and quantify that demand? And compounding it even further is how do you then accurately measure supply as well, and also take into consideration that just because supply exists, it doesn't mean it will always be made available for sale. In this regard, a card that is scarce, but not particularly rare, can be considered rare in regard to how often it becomes availabe for sale. And as others have pointed out, the use of just two TPG's pop reports is likely not a very accurate measure of supply in many cases. Interesting to talk about and discuss. Just not sure a wholly accurate formula or measure can be created to truly measure and compare a card's level of scarcity to that of other cards. Maybe the best and only real way we have to even somewhat accurately measure and compre scarcity among different cards is simply their price.