Where is the market?...is a "crash" coming

[oldschool73]

Hello,

I'll start by saying that i am first a collector...but a "conservative" one who appreciates a "deal". I am curious to know where my fellow 50's-70's baseball collectors & those who invest..think we are with prices today? IMO-we are still headed for a recession in the US (I hate being negative but I don't see how we avoid this)...so think card prices may/should drop accordingly.

I welcome thoughts/opinions.

-os73

[bcbgcbrcb]

When the pending doom of a recession actually arrives, history has shown that the average time frame lasted is only about 9 months with a positive turnaround on the other side of it. I think the imminent doom and gloom beforehand is much worse than the recession itself. I think we have been and are continuing to experience this already for quite a while now.

[Johnny630]

Post War has Substantially Corrected from the highs which I contend many may have been fluff numbers…we are entering imo a normalization period…we will be up from pre pandemic but nowhere near as up as in what cards were selling for in major auctions back in 2021.

I seen a few dealers this weekend with tons of over priced graded post war….none of it was selling. The reason it’s for sale and not up for auction is because they don’t have the guts to roll the dice…they know people aren’t paying up like they did.

Pre War and the Post War Killer Names Centered in higher grades are all more then Fire 🔥 Cobb Ruth Wagner Jackson Mantle Jackie and Mays.

[BioCRN]

Keeping it strictly cards, I'm seeing a slow-down in buying, but I'm not seeing people selling off their collections to pay bills or otherwise get loot.

The "Ebay museum" of overpriced pre-war vintage doesn't seem to be coming down and there doesn't seem to be much new inventory making it's way there for sale that would indicate people needing to sell off for other needs.

[rjackson44]

Yes the market is crashing ,thats why i bought 1 k in vintage hockey😳😳💃🏼

[Peter_Spaeth]

How many times can we keep doing this?

[theshowandme]

I will keep buying

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

How many times can we keep doing this?

For as long as it takes!!!

[mrreality68]

I believe there are several threads on this including one just a few weeks ago.
But regardless over the long haul there is definitely growth.
Vintage is less risk and more steady than modern.

To most of us who are collectors
1. Buy what you enjoy
2. Try buying the best card you can afford of the card you want and focus on eye appeal, centering etc.
3. Try not to use your charge cards to pay for it unless you get rewards points and can pay it off fast.
4 sharing your collections and things you win with pictures so we can enjoy your collection with you. As we all collect different things and some similar and we enjoy see what others have

[Peter_Spaeth]

Where is the market going?
Are we at a peak?
Are we at a bottom?
Should I buy now or wait?
Should I sell now or wait?
Where do you see the market a year from now? A month from now? Tomorrow?
What cards do you think will gain in value? Retain their value? Drop in value?

What happened to collecting?

[Snapolit1]

Economists have correctly called 25 of the last 6 recessions.

[oldschool73]

Lucky you..so fortunate to have infinite disposable income and not worry about price.

[trambo]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

How many times can we keep doing this?

I'm thinking maybe like six more times.....

[Peter_Spaeth]

Don't I wish but not at all the point. The points are these: 1. This has been discussed ad nauseum on a near-constant basis. 2. Nobody here knows the future, it's a meaningless conversation.

[samosa4u]

The SCI 500 shows us that prices have been falling since 2021. When are we going to hit the bottom? Nobody knows.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by samosa4u

The SCI 500 shows us that prices have been falling since 2021. When are we going to hit the bottom? Nobody knows.

Never seems to happen to any card I want though.

[Madi$on18joshua]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

I believe there are several threads on this including one just a few weeks ago.
But regardless over the long haul there is definitely growth.
Vintage is less risk and more steady than modern.

To most of us who are collectors
1. Buy what you enjoy
2. Try buying the best card you can afford of the card you want and focus on eye appeal, centering etc.
3. Try not to use your charge cards to pay for it unless you get rewards points and can pay it off fast.
4 sharing your collections and things you win with pictures so we can enjoy your collection with you. As we all collect different things and some similar and we enjoy see what others have

well said Jeffrey!

[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Never seems to happen to any card I want though.

You should start a YouTube channel lol

[oldschool73]

Thanks for being omniscient on worthwhile discussion.why interject if not worthwhile?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by samosa4u

You should start a YouTube channel lol

LOL. Could I be any worse than SCR or Geoff Wilson?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by trambo

I'm thinking maybe like six more times.....

Maybe we could have a permanent thread.

[Snapolit1]

It's pretty remarkable how if you watch one TV network for any period of time you walk away firmly convinced that (a) we have never had more violent crime in the history of the country and (b) the economy has never been worse in our lifetimes.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

It's pretty remarkable how if you watch one TV network for any period of time you walk away firmly convinced that (a) we have never had more violent crime in the history of the country and (b) the economy has never been worse in our lifetimes.

Hmm....which TV network could that be?

[Mark17]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

Hmm....which TV network could that be?

It changes every 4 years based on whom the networks want to blame. The networks that paint a rosy picture now will flip to negative, and vice-versa.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Mark17

It changes every 4 years based on whom the networks want to blame. The networks that paint a rosy picture now will flip to negative, and vice-versa.

On this we agree

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Where is the market going?
Are we at a peak?
Are we at a bottom?
Should I buy now or wait?
Should I sell now or wait?
Where do you see the market a year from now? A month from now? Tomorrow?
What cards do you think will gain in value? Retain their value? Drop in value?

What happened to collecting?

Yes.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by samosa4u

the sci 500 shows us that prices have been falling since 2021. When are we going to hit the bottom? Nobody knows.

"sci 500"?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

"sci 500"?

Index started in the pandemic by Geoff Wilson, one of the modern investment types with a big online presence. Not sure of the components.

[Flintboy]

Originally Posted by oldschool73

Hello,

I'll start by saying that i am first a collector...but a "conservative" one who appreciates a "deal". I am curious to know where my fellow 50's-70's baseball collectors & those who invest..think we are with prices today? IMO-we are still headed for a recession in the US (I hate being negative but I don't see how we avoid this)...so think card prices may/should drop accordingly.

I welcome thoughts/opinions.

-os73

This depends on who you ask. If you ask a dealer, there been absolutely no down turn, just look at the prices on their cards at shows. You ask any collector, prices have been trending downward since the COVID era.

[RCFire82]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Pre War and the Post War Killer Names Centered in higher grades are all more then Fire 🔥 Cobb Ruth Wagner Jackson Mantle Jackie and Mays.

I've seen it with the others...but Reggie Jackson?

[Mark17]

And Jackie Coogan??

[brianp-beme]

Originally Posted by Mark17

And Jackie Coogan??

That Addams Family card is well centered...Uncle Fester's head is sunken down smack dab into the middle of his sternum.

Brian

[Pato15]

Originally Posted by RCFire82

I've seen it with the others...but Reggie Jackson?

Don't be silly. They're obviously talking about Roy Lee Jackson

[BabyRuth]

Just some food for thought:

1968 Topps 3-D Uncut sheet with Clemente and 2 proof cards


Summer 2023 REA Lot#1402 sold for $29,400

Fall 2023 REA Lot#2149 hi bid $13,000 - not sold reserve not met

Looks like the exact same sheet, with the exact same description for both auctions.

What a difference 3 months make!!!

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Maybe we could have a permanent thread.

And it can be stickied to the top of each section!!
.

and a card...

[parkplace33]

I don't predict a crash, but it was very telling that several REA lots did not meet their respective reserves last night.

[toledo_mudhen]

How does that Fester Card only grade a 6??????

WTF

[butchie_t]

Originally Posted by toledo_mudhen

How does that Fester Card only grade a 6??????

WTF

It's obvious, ... no light bulb.

[butchie_t]

Originally Posted by oldschool73

Thanks for being omniscient on worthwhile discussion.why interject if not worthwhile?

The simple point is this. You are the latest with one of countless posts, asking the same question. How or what is the market doing and is it gonna crash? or many, many, variations therein.

No one here can predict this at all. Everyone has pretty much the same market information that everyone else has. So the questions and the answers are all the same. dunno.

It is just tiresome to answer a question that never has an answer to it, over and over again.

Cheers,

Butch Turner.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by butchie_t

The simple point is this. You are the latest with one of countless posts, asking the same question. How or what is the market doing and is it gonna crash? or many, many, variations therein.

No one here can predict this at all. Everyone has pretty much the same market information that everyone else has. So the questions and the answers are all the same. dunno.

It is just tiresome to answer a question that never has an answer to it, over and over again.

Cheers,

Butch Turner.

This.

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Never seems to happen to any card I want though.

Ditto. Even with postwar standard stuff that isn't rare by any stretch of the imagination. The BIN's remain high on most decent looking midgrade slabs, and waiting out auctions with any consistency to get a real deal has never been my strong suit...

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by brianp-beme

That Addams Family card is well centered...Uncle Fester's head is sunken down smack dab into the middle of his sternum.

Brian

The Fester card is mislabeled. I believe that is a Fetterman RC, not Fester.

[Fred]

Supply and demand, right? Economic conditions play a role, but the bottom line is the demand. As long as there are people (collectors or investors) that are willing to pay high prices for cards, then there will be strength in pricing (demand).

What hurts the pricing is when people get greedy and try to manipulate the market and create the illusion of a "hot" market with hype or other means.

At some point in time the investor side will get burned because they're buying with the idea the card "market" will continue to rise and they'll find out the hard way that the pricing will not continue to grow infinitely when they don't have a chair to sit in when the music stops.

As long has you have two people willing to bid up prices, there will appear to be strong demand.

To the investors out there: Keep the hype machine going but make sure you have your chair when the music suddenly stops because if you don't have a chair, then welcome to the collecting community (unless of course you want to take a financial loss and dump your cardboard because you really never cared for it in the first place).

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Fred

Supply and demand, right? Economic conditions play a role, but the bottom line is the demand. As long as there are people (collectors or investors) that are willing to pay high prices for cards, then there will be strength in pricing (demand).

What hurts the pricing is when people get greedy and try to manipulate the market and create the illusion of a "hot" market with hype or other means.

At some point in time the investor side will get burned because they're buying with the idea the card "market" will continue to rise and they'll find out the hard way that the pricing will not continue to grow infinitely when they don't have a chair to sit in when the music stops.

As long has you have two people willing to bid up prices, there will appear to be strong demand.

To the investors out there: Keep the hype machine going but make sure you have your chair when the music suddenly stops because if you don't have a chair, then welcome to the collecting community (unless of course you want to take a financial loss and dump your cardboard because you really never cared for it in the first place).

Well said. I have to admit that I'm skeptical of all claims that "the good stuff (whatever that means) will never go down in value". Every collector has to know that these little pieces of cardboard have essentially zero intrinsic value, right?

[oldschool73]

Originally Posted by butchie_t

The simple point is this. You are the latest with one of countless posts, asking the same question. How or what is the market doing and is it gonna crash? or many, many, variations therein.

No one here can predict this at all. Everyone has pretty much the same market information that everyone else has. So the questions and the answers are all the same. dunno.

It is just tiresome to answer a question that never has an answer to it, over and over again.

Cheers,

Butch Turner.

Then why even read/answer the thread?..just move on.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by oldschool73

Then why even read/answer the thread?..just move on.

It's like a train wreck. We can't not watch!

Plus we all want our part in the conversation, so not responding is not really a viable option.

So instead, we get to debate whether the whole premise of the debate is worthy of debate.

And complain, of course. Plus complain about the complaining.

[butchie_t]

Originally Posted by oldschool73

Then why even read/answer the thread?..just move on.

Better yet, don't ask a question that will never have an answer and post it on a board for all to answer.

Because you will get an answer, just not an answer to an unanswerable question.

Butch Turner

[Peter_Spaeth]

A crash is definitely coming. I am 100 percent certain. My stars, Ouija board, palm reading, tea leaves, and tarot cards are all in perfect alignment. My local gypsy concurs as well.

[packs]

If thinking about your cards futures is too much, I am offering my help in taking them off your hands so you can clear your mind. I will pay you only what I want to pay, seeing as thinking about their price is giving you such anxiety.

This is my gift to you.

[ejharrington]

I see no evidence at all that there is a bear market in anything that I collect. To the contrary, prices keep going up.