Pre-War Correction underway?

[Rhotchkiss]

I collect rare back t206s, and HOFers from 1900-1920(ish), so that’s all I follow and know. But it seems to me that more common, pre-war, HOF cards have recently sold at large discounts compared to what they were selling for before all this Moser/alteration stuff went viral. For example, the Matty dark cap PSA 6 pictured below sold last night for just over $3100, which is much less than any 2018-2019 comp according to VCP; granted there does appear to be small white fleck or paper loss on the chin of this one.

This nice looking card sold for about 33% less than other comps. While my t206 brown Lenox and a pretty t215-1 sold in the most recent PWCC auction for strong prices, those are super rare cards, I noticed that a number of higher graded, pre-war, HOFers sold for similar discounts. I have also seen recent, one-off auctions of solid cards go for well below the past year’s VCP average. For example, a pretty D322 Wagner 1.5 just sold for under $5k (should have been a $6k+ card), a different t206 Matty dark cap PSA 6 recently did not get a minimum bid of $1850 (compare this to VCP averages), a Probstein SGC 6, t206 Cy young portrait just sold for $5,804 (PSA 5s have been selling at an average of $8k), and a fairly rare SGC 3, e92 Croft’s candy a Wagner throwing sold for under $2k (a steal considering these rarely sell and the more common dockman back normally fetches about $1900 in this grade).

So, I have seen indicators that we may be in a correction in prewar. Thoughts?

[Exhibitman]

Too small a sample to tell whether those were aberrant sales (perhaps due to vacation or similar distractions). Ask again in 6 mos. after hundreds of cards have moved.

[ullmandds]

While I agree with Adam that the sample size is way too small at this point to know if a correction is underway...it would not surprise me in the least if this is the beginning of one. A lot of the younger collectors/investors were paying crazy money for pretty common t206's lately...with the mindset that valuations will just keep going up...and I think some maybe spooked and are selling/leaving the hobby.

[barrysloate]

Ryan- the sales you cited occurred simultaneous with the revelations of the past several weeks. It would be more interesting to see if in a month or two everything returns to normal. This does need to be tracked over a longer period of time.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Way too little, way too early to tell.

[barrysloate]

I'm sure some buyers are a little jittery right now, so we'll see whether things calm down or whether we are in a market correction. I really don't know.

[Rhotchkiss]

Btw- I could site dozens of other recent examples- I just have better things to do- And I do acknowledge its only been a few weeks, so I’m that regard the temporal period is no doubt short/small. However, I do think there has been an immediate reaction- the real question is whether it’s a anomaly or it becomes a trend.

While the net54 society is small, I do believe it represents a relatively larger pool of prewar baseball collectors than in other areas/genres, and thus the opinions, polls and feelings expressed on this site, if they play out in real life, could have a material impact on prewar. And based on examples from the past few weeks, I do believe that is happening.

[MVSNYC]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

I'm sure some buyers are a little jittery right now, so we'll see whether things calm down or whether we are in a market correction. I really don't know.

I think Barry is right, simply put, people have pumped the brakes somewhat with aggressive bidding (due to being a little "jittery"). Time will tell if a correction will(is) happen(ing). I do think, however, as mentioned above, true rarity will always hold it's value and command strong prices.