Negro League Baseball Collectibles Update

[bcbgcbrcb]

I wasn't sure whether to resurrect the below Net 54 thread from 5 years ago or start a new one so I decided to do the latter and just reference the old link:

http://www.net54baseball.com/showthr...+league+prices

I would like to ask for opinions/insight from those in the know as well as anyone interested in this segment of the vintage baseball collectibles market. While interest and prices in the market were soaring just a few years ago, it appears to me that both have fallen off significantly over the past year or two.

Since I am still an avid collector of Negro League material myself, I can say that I have closely watched all major auctions over the past couple of years and found an extremely limited number of top-quality items. I do collect only photos, postcards, cards, basically anything picturing the players so no autographed baseballs, contracts, etc.

My logic being that an extremely limited supply of something over time would drive up the prices of the few items to come to market but I don't see that happening at all. Next question logically then is, what happened? A couple/few major collectors who jumped in a few years ago already gotten out, but then where did all of the top-quality items go that they bought? Maybe long-time collectors no longer actively buying?

I would love to hear everyone's opinions on the subject so fire away........

[Leon]

Hey Phil
As someone who has collected a little of everything obscure I can tell you that even though the pieces should be worth more, relative to other things in our hobby, the demand side is always the most important in determining values. Maybe 3-4 of the top collectors took a hiatus? It happens often in our hobby. And if that happens and there were only 10'ish higher end negro league collectors to start with, then the prices can fall. It has happened with a lot of things I collect. It's all about "demand".

[Scocs]

Part of the problem might lie in the fact that prices for Negro/Cuban League cards have literally remained frozen over the past ten years in the Standard Catalog of Vintage Baseball Cards. Does the book publisher ever take a look at auction prices over time?!

[bcbgcbrcb]

If collectors stopped buying the guide each year due to all of the info being stagnant, that might get things to move thanks to new research and updated price info. Otherwise, it's obviously easier and cheaper to just reprint the same thing year after year.

I can tell you that I've stopped buying several years ago after seeing very little change over 3 or 4 years.

[Kenny Cole]

Maybe I'm missing it, but I don't see too many really desirable negro league items selling any more. Every so often, but not nearly so much as they used to. The Merkin stuff is pretty well done, and the rest is kind of catch as catch can. I think that people who already have those items, who by this point are probably best characterized as core (or HOF) collectors, are holding onto them. I know that I am. I would also suspect that there are a ton of private sales that aren't reported simply because they are among the core collectors. That probably doesn't explain it all, but I certainly think that's a large part of it.

[Shoeless Moe]

These 2 both recently sold on Ebay for a nice price:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Orig-Photo-N...vip=true&rt=nc


http://www.ebay.com/itm/Rare-c1908-C...vip=true&rt=nc

[bcbgcbrcb]

Well done, Paul, good recent examples of very strong prices.

I have some "doubts" about the Breakers photo. I noticed it immediately the first time it was listed on e-bay with a $100.00 minimum bid and no reserve. I e-mailed the seller with a question and did not receive a response during the entire time of the listing so decided not to bother bidding. After six plus days on e-bay and only a few hours until the listing was scheduled to end, the photo had zero bids and the seller pulled it down and immediately relisted it with the same $100.00 minimum bid. The second time around it sells for $1,500+, something doesn't seem quite right to me.........

As far as the Cuban Giants postcard, looks legitimate and a very nice piece. In my opinion, the final price was very high given the lack of "star power". I realize these things are all rare and maybe 1-of-a-kind but still........As long as the winning bidder is happy with their purchase, that's all that counts, right?

[bcbgcbrcb]

I agree, Kenny. My only question is, with that core group of collectors that you mention, won't you think that the group would provide spirited bidding on those very infrequent occasions that a top-notch item comes up for sale/auction? Since they are so few and far between, you would think these items would be "must haves" for those collectors who might only have a couple of opportunities over the course of an entire year, no?

[Kenny Cole]

Phil,

I did receive a response from the seller of the Royal Poinciana photo after he pulled it down the first time. I don't want to put words in his mouth, but my belief at the time was that he'd been made an offer for it off-line and was considering whether or not to sell it. I told him that I had set a pretty healthy snipe and he relisted it soon after, even before responding to me.

In any event, I guess I'll have a better idea whether its the real deal or not in fairly short order since I won it and its on the way.

Kenny

[bcbgcbrcb]

Glad you got it, Kenny. I don't think you will have any issue with it being real or not, I'm quite sure it is. My concern was the circumstances surrounding the sale, not the item itself.

[Scocs]

I agree with Kenny. 2012-2013 saw a lot of the Merkin Collection sell at very strong prices in Hake's Auctions.

I am sure many of the recent acquisitions since then have been the result of private sales...which won't get any public attention.

Still, the fact remains that a 1924-1925 Aguilitas Biz Mackey SGC 30 card sells for over $15,000 (within the past five years) and the stupid price guide still lists it in Excellent condition at $3750.....which is the same price dating back to what, 1925?!

[bcbgcbrcb]

Definitely lots of private transactions in this segment of the hobby and no way to track those, of course.

But for those public auction items, as previously mentioned, prices spiked during the selling of the key items of the Merkin collection by Hake's a few years back. However, very strong prices on Negro League items were also realized at the same time by REA, Huggins & Scott, Heritage and others so we can't just attribute everything to the Merkin collection.

It is my opinion that collecting Negro League material suddenly became the "en vogue" thing when all of the Merkin stuff plus others hit the market over a relatively short period of time. When things started to dry up, those collectors maybe got out of the market and moved on to other things.

Do you think I am on the right track towards explaining things here? Could it be simply one or two individuals that made all the difference in market fluctuations?

[Scocs]

Phil,

I think demand is still strong for:

a) HOFers and near-HOFers
b) High-end condition, which for most of these Cuban issues is anything over VG-EX

I have had the pleasure to interact with many Negro/Cuban League collectors I have met on this Forum over the past three years. I know it's a tight-knit community but I don't think the same two or three items are merely changing hands between just two or three collectors.

-- Scott

[bcbgcbrcb]

Good points, Scott. Your expertise appears to be very strong on the cards side, i.e.-Aguilitas, Tomas Gutierrez, Nacionales, etc.

My collecting focus has been much more on the postcards and photos side, particularly team images. That is where I am coming from with most of my comments and related discussion.

[Scocs]

Phil,

As much as I rail against the Vintage BBC price guide -- at least there is a price guide that catalogs most if not all of the Negro/Cuban cards. You are not so lucky when it comes to photos and postcards. To be honest, that aspect kind of scared me off from collecting that type of material. There seems to be no kind of objective gauge by which to measure "value" and "worth".

And yes, my interest is in the cards, but some of the original photos and real pcs are breathtaking and truly museum-quality pieces.

[bcbgcbrcb]

Scott:

As I started shifting my collecting focus more and more to Negro League baseball items a few years back, I too noticed that there was very little reference material on the subject. Thus, I began a year-long research project that culminated with the publication of my Negro League Baseball Collectibles Guide. This reference tool includes a whole section devoted to cards and another section devoted to postcards, photos, programs, scorecards, broadsides, etc. I still have some copies available if interested, they are $29.95 plus $6.10 for USPS Priority Mail.

[Scocs]

I already own a copy, Phil. If you weren't going to mention it, I would have! 👍

[Kenny Cole]

Originally Posted by Scocs

Phil,

As much as I rail against the Vintage BBC price guide -- at least there is a price guide that catalogs most if not all of the Negro/Cuban cards. You are not so lucky when it comes to photos and postcards. To be honest, that aspect kind of scared me off from collecting that type of material. There seems to be no kind of objective gauge by which to measure "value" and "worth".

And yes, my interest is in the cards, but some of the original photos and real pcs are breathtaking and truly museum-quality pieces.

Back in about 2001, Bob Lemke approached Ryan Christoff about pricing the Cuban cards. Ryan recruited Matt Goebel and I to help him. We spent quite a bit of time on it, pricing the Billikens, both Aguilitas sets, the TGs and the Nacionales. I don't remember doing the Cabanas and am sure that we didn't do the Punch or Mallorquinas. I'm not sure any of us even knew they existed. I know that I didn't.

In any event, once those prices got published, they sort of stayed there. Maybe Ryan updated them, but I know that I didn't assist. I agree that the prices are waaaaay old and stagnant. My guess is that if Ryan did update them, he only did that for a few years and that was it. That is likely why they are where they are.

[Scocs]

Thank you for the info, Kenny. I never knew that!