10K for a Young portrait in a 5

[Peter_Spaeth]

Larry, very cogent thoughts as always, but what you said was also true a year ago, and two, and three, and so on.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Larry, very cogent thoughts as always, but what you said was also true a year ago, and two, and three, and so on.

Hi, Pete! And as the hobby continues to grow (REA had something like bids from 20-some different countries in their spring auction?), and the AVAILABLE SUPPLY of the more highly desirable cards continues to shrink as they are taken up and stashed away at ever-increasing price levels, it will continue to do so with regard to vintage cards. The supply part of the demand and supply equation as it effects value is not, of course, the total supply in existance, but that part of it that is available within reasonable time parameters at any given price level. Which is why the in "strong hands" part of the supply factor makes so much difference.

However, I haven't seen (although I don't closely monitor it) the significant falling off of the newer card market which must, virtually inevitably, occur (after all, these cards will all become "vintage" at some point in time). It will happen, as it did in the early to mid-'90's new card market, because the two are not independent, but are in fact linked. Today's current star will inevitably become yesterday's hero, and to compete pricewise, their actual stature, as well as the supply of their cards, will have to match up with the vintage players we value so highly to sustain even the current prices. Which is why, as you know, I certainly wouldn't bet the farm on PSA 10 '93 SP Jeters priced at $76K+ or one of 50 Mike Trout refractor rookies graded 8.5 at $35K. Sorry, new card guys, but it has to happen!

As I've also stated, however, this hobby is meant to be enjoyed. As long as it is doing that for you, more power to you regardless of your preferences,

Sincerely,

Larry

[Peter_Spaeth]

I hear you Larry but from what I have seen the "float" has always been relatively low compared to the overall supply, just the nature of the hobby, most good cards at any given time are in the hands of collectors not looking to sell them.