Friends giving up collecting in 2023 - Post continuation

[parkplace33]

About 6 months ago, I posted about two of my friends giving up collecting:

https://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=321801

I ended the post with this statement "I know collectors and collections cycle through, but this year, I have seen more of this than anytime I can remember. It will be very interesting how the rest of the year pans out."

From my perspective, that has continued not only for the rest of 2022, but also into 2023. Another friend I know sold his entire prewar collection (December 2022) to put a rather large down payment on a house. Another this month consigned his collection to an auction house. He stated that value could be used elsewhere. I will keep updating this topic.

Trend continuing for the rest of 2023? I guess we will see.

[raulus]

They’re just little green rectangles with dead people on them, but if someone is willing to give enough of them to you, at some point it gets pretty tempting to let someone else have the pleasure of owning your cardboard.

[Johnny630]

I suspect many FOMO Collectors over the past two years may be stepping back.

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by raulus

They’re just little green rectangles with dead people on them, but if someone is willing to give enough of them to you, at some point it gets pretty tempting to let someone else have the pleasure of owning your cardboard.

That is true, just seems like a lot are selling (same as last year).

I knew auction houses were big, but it seems the bigger and better collection go right to them. Collectors know where the money is at it seems.

[Exhibitman]

I suspect a lot of it is coincidental or generational.

There are a lot of us old fart collectors who bought their collections decades ago for a pittance and have huge paper profits. Some are cashing in. Since we all travel in the same relatively small collector circles (I interact with maybe a thousand collectors between boards and in person dealings), a relatively small number of collectors from that core selling out looks like a stampede.

There is also the timing. The early and middle Boomers are at retirement age, and the late Boomers and early Gen X'ers are entering (if we are lucky) the wind-down phases of our careers and the downsizing of our lifestyles and needs. We are moving out of the big empty nests and into smaller spaces more suitable for couples. Part of that is the collection: either sell it off or pay to move it.

[mrreality68]

I agree with all and with the spike in prices it makes alot of us look and see the value of the collection and see what can be done with the money made.

Anyone selling to take care of family put kids thru college, make improvements or upgrades on the house, etc.

God Bless they took a passion of collecting and turned it into an investment in there families or quality of life.

I know some that did that and then after a time they came back to the passion of collecting to start again or to start a new set etc.

[G1911]

I hope it isn’t too true! A shrinking buyer base would be bad, since I took the boards advice and emptied my 401K and took a massive tax hit so I could YOLO everything into vintage baseball cards at peak prices that are a rock solid never go down investment.


As the Fed tries to kill the job market and stifle the economy and we’re in for a rough 2023 but cards are still selling pretty darn high, it would be shocking if a number of people didn’t realize gains and cash out. There aren’t a lot of collectors anymore who intend to keep for their natural life.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by G1911

I hope it isn’t too true! A shrinking buyer base would be bad, since I took the boards advice and emptied my 401K and took a massive tax hit so I could YOLO everything into vintage baseball cards at peak prices that are a rock solid never go down investment.


As the Fed tries to kill the job market and stifle the economy and we’re in for a rough 2023 but cards are still selling pretty darn high, it would be shocking if a number of people didn’t realize gains and cash out. There aren’t a lot of collectors anymore who intend to keep for their natural life.

Don’t forget all the loans you took out to buy more cardboard and are coming due soon!

[rats60]

Originally Posted by G1911

I hope it isn’t too true! A shrinking buyer base would be bad, since I took the boards advice and emptied my 401K and took a massive tax hit so I could YOLO everything into vintage baseball cards at peak prices that are a rock solid never go down investment.


As the Fed tries to kill the job market and stifle the economy and we’re in for a rough 2023 but cards are still selling pretty darn high, it would be shocking if a number of people didn’t realize gains and cash out. There aren’t a lot of collectors anymore who intend to keep for their natural life.

Paying 28% to the feds + state tax to invest in the stock market and lose 20% doesn't seem like a smart move. If you are using the money for something useful, like a down payment on a house, then I can see liquidating. Selling just because the market is strong with no real plan isn't very smart.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I suspect a lot of it is coincidental or generational.

There are a lot of us old fart collectors who bought their collections decades ago for a pittance and have huge paper profits. Some are cashing in. Since we all travel in the same relatively small collector circles (I interact with maybe a thousand collectors between boards and in person dealings), a relatively small number of collectors from that core selling out looks like a stampede.

There is also the timing. The early and middle Boomers are at retirement age, and the late Boomers and early Gen X'ers are entering (if we are lucky) the wind-down phases of our careers and the downsizing of our lifestyles and needs. We are moving out of the big empty nests and into smaller spaces more suitable for couples. Part of that is the collection: either sell it off or pay to move it.

Great point(s) Adam. The Baby Boomer generation pretty much coincides exactly with the rise in card collecting brought on by the start of the continuing Topps and Bowman sets. Took the hobby from a more niche fascination with some to something generational that pretty much every kid growing up in the 50s, 60s, and into the 70s, remembers very well. Even though the majority of Baby Boomers never became big-time card collectors, pretty much every single one remembers the cards and opening packs at some point in their childhood. And as you said, as we're all getting near that point of retirement (if not already there), possibly along with seeing the somewhat ridiculous increases in prices during the pandemic, thinking about other things than one's cards may start to come to the fore.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by parkplace33

That is true, just seems like a lot are selling (same as last year).

I knew auction houses were big, but it seems the bigger and better collection go right to them. Collectors know where the money is at it seems.

When prices are so high as they have been last year and this year, the only surprise to me is why it’s not even more common.

Certainly if I were closer to retirement, or were to experience economic pressures, I would be a lot more motivated to sell myself.

[Snapolit1]

Interesting article/report on state of the market generally. Seems to track a lot of what people on the board have reported last 6 months.

https://www.sportscollectorsdaily.co...84a65-83282852

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Interesting article/report on state of the market generally. Seems to track a lot of what people on the board have reported last 6 months.

https://www.sportscollectorsdaily.co...84a65-83282852

Definitely get peoples attention, they’re are talking and writing, thanks for the link.

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Definitely get peoples attention, they’re are talking and writing, thanks for the link.

This got my attention:

Fractional sports cards and sports memorabilia finished the year down 35.9% and 26.7% respectively.

All I heard from those guys for many months was how eveyone who got involved with them was raking it in hand over fist. Then crickets.

Sort of reminds me back in 2008 how the NY Times had an article on the front page of their business section about how everyone from the UPS man to guys in barber shops were checking their stocks in real time like 100 times a day. UPS guy was delivering packages with one hand and watchin the stock ticker with his other hand. Barber shop couldn't turn the TV off of CNBC. Everyone was giddy. Making money was so easy. Swear the market shit the bed like 3 days later.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

This got my attention:

Fractional sports cards and sports memorabilia finished the year down 35.9% and 26.7% respectively.

All I heard from those guys for many months was how eveyone who got involved with them was raking it in hand over fist. Then crickets.

Sort of reminds me back in 2008 how the NY Times had an article on the front page of their business section about how everyone from the UPS man to guys in barber shops were checking their stocks in real time like 100 times a day. UPS guy was delivering packages with one hand and watchin the stock ticker with his other hand. Barber shop couldn't turn the TV off of CNBC. Everyone was giddy. Making money was so easy. Swear the market shit the bed like 3 days later.

Steve that whole fractional sports card hype was another failed attempt at pushing baseball cards as an investment. Anyone with half a brain knows that was ridiculous. Sports cards aren't shares of a business to own interest it, they're a hard asset.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Steve that whole fractional sports card hype was another failed attempt at pushing baseball cards as an investment. Anyone with half a brain knows that was ridiculous. Sports cards aren't shares of a business to own interest it, they're a hard asset.

Regardless Johnny, in times of economic instability and panic, many people often view "hard assets" as a viable alternative to the volatile marketplace. Think of people who buy gold, silver, and other precious metals as a potential hedge against that market instability. Whether any of us like it or not, there are many people that now look at cards as one of these "hard assets" that may be a viable alternative to the stock market and other investment vehicles. With the proliferation of TPG grading, AHs, online sellers/consignors, and even Ebay, cards are not such an illiquid asset as they may have been just a couple decades or so ago.

And the eventual drop in value of such "hard assets" as cards is not entirely unpredictable either. There are more than a few well known advisors out there telling people to put, and keep things, in cash for now, and leave it there until the overall market volatility factors start to play out and we can maybe get a better idea of where things are headed.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Steve that whole fractional sports card hype was another failed attempt at pushing baseball cards as an investment. Anyone with half a brain knows that was ridiculous. Sports cards aren't shares of a business to own interest it, they're a hard asset.

[Fred]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Interesting article/report on state of the market generally. Seems to track a lot of what people on the board have reported last 6 months.

https://www.sportscollectorsdaily.co...84a65-83282852

Interesting article, thank you for the link.

Has anybody created a Sports Card Index that tracks the value of the top 500 cards in the hobby? My thought is that it would have a cross section of highly sought after cards. Create an index for higher grade, mid grade and lower grade cards. If one exists, it'd be interesting to hear about it.

Regarding fractional ownership, not something I'd be interested in doing unless I was the person hanging on to the card until it sold. At least having the card would allow you to get a good feel of ownership, even if it's fractional.

I keep telling myself to dump what I have, take the money and run but I just can't do it. If I ever do something like that, I'll let everyone know because if I'm selling, then it'll be time to buy because everything I sold would increase in value by 50% a month after I sell it off. Don't believe me, just wait...

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Fred

Has anybody created a Sports Card Index that tracks the value of the top 500 cards in the hobby? My thought is that it would have a cross section of highly sought after cards. Create an index for higher grade, mid grade and lower grade cards. If one exists, it'd be interesting to hear about it.
)

Might not be exactly what you had in mind, but PWCC created some indices to track prices.

I haven’t spent much time digging into the weeds here, but here’s a link:

https://www.pwccmarketplace.com/market-indices

[BobC]

Originally Posted by raulus

Might not be exactly what you had in mind, but PWCC created some indices to track prices.

I haven’t spent much time digging into the weeds here, but here’s a link:

https://www.pwccmarketplace.com/market-indices

Which raises the question, how long you think before they go out and acquire all the cards used to measure and create their index, and then start selling people interests/units in it, just like say a DOW or S&P fund does?

Not an expert in securities law, so not certain exactly when someone would have to be afraid of crossing the line and become subject to actual securities laws and regulations of they did start trying to do something like this. However, I do believe there can be such laws and regulations at both the federal and state levels. So, the answer could vary based on where you, or maybe the entity offering the investment sales, are located as well.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Fred

Interesting article, thank you for the link.

Has anybody created a Sports Card Index that tracks the value of the top 500 cards in the hobby? My thought is that it would have a cross section of highly sought after cards. Create an index for higher grade, mid grade and lower grade cards. If one exists, it'd be interesting to hear about it.

Regarding fractional ownership, not something I'd be interested in doing unless I was the person hanging on to the card until it sold. At least having the card would allow you to get a good feel of ownership, even if it's fractional.

I keep telling myself to dump what I have, take the money and run but I just can't do it. If I ever do something like that, I'll let everyone know because if I'm selling, then it'll be time to buy because everything I sold would increase in value by 50% a month after I sell it off. Don't believe me, just wait...

There is a top 100 index, sorry I forget the name but a member here is trying to complete it. Maybe he can chime in if he sees this.

[Exhibitman]

"in times of economic instability and panic, many people often view "hard assets" as a viable alternative to the volatile marketplace"