Market for Pre War Cards -How far down is down?

[tbob]

If it is true that the whales who were in the hobby for their investment portfolios or strictly investment purposes are truly leaving, I say "hurray!" Maybe the value of my collection decreases monetarily somewhat becaue of this and the economy's woes, but I remember leon a few years ago telling a newbie in a post that he needed to collect cards with the understanding that if someday the cards would all be without value, you would still have the joy of collecting and all those great cards you liked. Think it was leon and sorry for paraphrasing you leon.

JIM VB

We'd appreciate if you stop your sarcastic attacks

We hate to take up time and space on the board responding
to your cynical comments- however, if you want to shoot
arrows, we will be happy to return the favor with nuclear
missiles.

In other words stick to card collecting and save your commentary
for your buddies like Keith and Rachel and MSN NBC

Bruce Dorskind
America's Premiere Collector of Ultra Rare Baseball Memorabilia

[steve B]

While the economy and peoples available spending money are certainly a factor I think a large part of it is also a maturing of the hobby.

At one time nearly everything was "inexpensive" witht the exception of a few cards that had something extra going for them. The Wagner, 52 Mantle, Fleer Wiliams #68, stuff like that.

The next phase around mid 80's was a rush toward star and rookie cards as investments. But without understanding why a rookie card might be more valuable.

By the late 80's early 90's every card was seen as valuable, and manufacturers could sell as much as they could print. Everything became hype and image. Except for prewar, which stayed pretty solid and grew very well. Largely because all prewar cards were seen as "rare" or at least hard to find.

Mid 90's manufacturers cut back on production of any particular set, but produced a fast array of sets. Prewar still did well in a somewhat failing market because things were still percieved as being harder to find.

Things slid from there to where we are today, and a lot of the slide for modern stuff is the "Ebay effect" where before you might go to flea markets for a year and not find much that wasn't brand new, now you could go on Ebay and see just how many of anything were actually out there. And for nearly everything the answer was plenty. So modern stuff suffered. If you're not pickyabout condition, nearly any mainstream set can be had with a few mouse clicks.

I think the lower prices for low and mid grade prewar is an extension of that. For a brief time the sense that 33 goudeys and diamond stars etc were uncommon persisted. But people are finally noticing that a large group of prewar cards aren't really all that tough in lower grades. And for most people, if you can buy a particular card pretty much any time you want they'll wait for a deal. Which will lower the price.

The stuff that's actually hard to find may suffer a bit temporarily, but when it does come back, I think we'll see some very impressive prices even for "commons"

I'm partly comparing this hobby "maturity" to already mature hobbies like Stamps and coins, all of which were well developed a long time ago. In US stamps there's very little produced after about 1930 that isn't very cheap. And a lot that was produced before 1930 that's also cheap. And the prices for the common stuff is very static. But the truly difficult items and the difficult and popular items are expensive and likely to get more expensive.


Steve B

[mark evans]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

There will always be people collecting baseball cards and memorabilia, that's a constant. But it is certainly possible that the economics of collecting will change.

I believe that the generation of collectors who follow the baby boomers will be smaller. The number of people who came into the hobby between say 1980-2005 was unprecedented. It became a national phenomenon. But I don't think you will see that in the future. The number of people collecting will not be what it is today, and we are not likely to see the crazy runaway prices we've seen in the past. It's certainly possible it will be a healthy hobby, and that there will be well-heeled collectors ready to sink some money into it.

But I don't think it will be anything like what we've experienced in our generation. Things change, that's just a fact.

I agree with Barry. While the economy may largely explain any current downtrend, I think the long-term prognosis for vintage cards needs to take into account that demand will likely drop off once we baby boomers move on, so to speak.

[rdixon1208]

Originally Posted by mark evans

I agree with Barry. While the economy may largely explain any current downtrend, I think the long-term prognosis for vintage cards needs to take into account that demand will likely drop off once we baby boomers move on, so to speak.

While there is no doubt some truth here, there also seems to be a large group my age (30) that are coming into pre-war now. We all have the same story. There was a card shop in our town. We collected cards, and so did all of our friends. We longed for the '89 UD Griffey. Then we got out of cards as teenagers and young adults. Now we have jobs and we want to get back in. The cards we have at our moms' house are worthless, and we want to make sure that whatever we spend our money on now won't be trash in a few years. This naturally leads to vintage and/or pre-war. Think about it...how many of the recent "New to the board" threads are from guys just like me. There was a thread a few months ago that said something like "Who will buy our cards twenty years from now?" My favorite answer....."I Will"

[Matt]

I think card values are and will be fine. At any time, in a healthy market, there will be things that perform well and things that perform poorly, which is where we are now with cards. True a few years ago there was growth across the board on almost all pre-war issues, but that has settled out now to leave us a healthy situation.

[smtjoy]

I think what Barry said is right on the money. I think everyone got the feeling that pre war and some high grade post war card prices were going to continue to go up and poured money in to get a piece of the action. I remember auction results 3-4 years ago and nearly every lot was a new all time high. This year it seems like you see a few items getting great numbers but the rest is off. 4 years ago I was lucky to win anything at the auctions, this year I have had to hold back recently as I have won cards in 9 auctions and the budget is busting and I have the same budget as I did then.

That also makes me wonder how much of that was shilling and other funky stuff. I find it interesting that a few auction houses are no longer reporting their results to VCP, I get the feeling they dont want to advertise the lower prices they are bringing in or they are worried about shilling/FBI and leaving a price trail that people like Jeff can use as an example of "how can that price be good when the same card has sold 6 times this year for 20% of that price each time" and those result do really make me wonder and im sure many others do. Are the auction houses partly to blame for a bubble, I know things like shilling, extending crazy amounts of credits to buyers so they can flip on ebay then pay for their winnings have had an adverse effect on true values.

I mainly collect exhibits and I can say that most of the common cards have been selling very soft (off 20-40%) but as soon as a tough card like (26-29 plain backgound, 31-32, 33's) go for sale they get big numbers. I also collect Clemente cards and his Topps cards in 8 or 9 are all down as well as many of his common stuff but when you see his Plak selling for major money and some of his much harder stuff goes big it makes you think scarcity is playing a huge part too.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by smtjoy

I mainly collect exhibits and I can say that most of the common cards have been selling very soft (off 20-40%) but as soon as a tough card like (26-29 plain backgound, 31-32, 33's) go for sale they get big numbers.

+1

[T206Collector]

Originally Posted by rdixon1208

While there is no doubt some truth here, there also seems to be a large group my age (30) that are coming into pre-war now. We all have the same story. There was a card shop in our town. We collected cards, and so did all of our friends. We longed for the '89 UD Griffey. Then we got out of cards as teenagers and young adults. Now we have jobs and we want to get back in. The cards we have at our moms' house are worthless, and we want to make sure that whatever we spend our money on now won't be trash in a few years. This naturally leads to vintage and/or pre-war. Think about it...how many of the recent "New to the board" threads are from guys just like me. There was a thread a few months ago that said something like "Who will buy our cards twenty years from now?" My favorite answer....."I Will"

This post is spot on. And the first step into pre-war will likely be 1933 Goudey or T206. The abundance of both sets mirrors the abundance of modern cards, so you can get your quick fix on ebay every day if you like. But 33 Goudey and T206 provide more stability and long term enjoyment than the shiny stuff. I definitely see both sets as a natural progression for the shiny collectors burned by the drop in value and enthusiasm for modern cards.

The biggest issue will be if people just stop collecting cards generally -- as a society. I suspect that the overwhelming paradigm shift into an all digital era will actually create more collectors -- even if they cannot recall when media was transmitted on paper.

[Orioles1954]

Originally Posted by T206Collector

This post is spot on. And the first step into pre-war will likely be 1933 Goudey or T206. The abundance of both sets mirrors the abundance of modern cards, so you can get your quick fix on ebay every day if you like. But 33 Goudey and T206 provide more stability and long term enjoyment than the shiny stuff. I definitely see both sets as a natural progression for the shiny collectors burned by the drop in value and enthusiasm for modern cards.

The biggest issue will be if people just stop collecting cards generally -- as a society. I suspect that the overwhelming paradigm shift into an all digital era will actually create more collectors -- even if they cannot recall when media was transmitted on paper.

I also agree with the previous posts. While pre-war collectors tend to scoff and mock the shiny cards, I find that the vast majority of modern card hobbyists are very appreciative of T206 and Goudey. The "digital age" has left many like me (I'm 34) longing for that simpler time. I love tanglible things that I can hold and appreciate like records, books with covers and baseball cards.

[jimm]

Good points all, as long as there is baseball there will be baseball collectors. Value will rise and fall, as always. Collect what you want for as long as you want (or can) I feel there will always be a market for quality baseball items.

[nebboy]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Nobody has mentioned this yet (unless I missed it) but let me pose another take on the hobby economy: I think the market we had in roughly 2005-07 was a bubble, and that bubble has now burst. Not everybody may agree with this assessment but it had several markings of a bubble: prices that were increasing at an incredible rate and the notion that they had nowhere to go but up were two factors that support this theory.

Did anyone else get that feeling, or is it just me?

Oh I do agree that there has been a bubble poping for a few years, the only thing that does'nt come down is the expection that their cards price should be that same as it was at its highest. Going back to what a card sold at in a major auction house 2-5 or more yars ago and thinking that should be what mine is worth (or thats what I want for it). Never seems to change. The price guilds support this every month with the numbers they qoute.

[Bosox Blair]

I'm not sure I can agree with the original premise. I subscribe to VCP and follow the pricing on certain items with interest.

Most recently, pretty much everything I've tracked on Ebay sold at a price not far off the pre-crash 2008 levels, according to VCP data. Not just the T207s everyone mentions, but a grouping of T206s last night on Ebay with common backs in PSA 5-6. I monitored a few of the HOFers and a couple other notables and all of them sold at prices consistent with early 2008 sales.

For the last several months, each time I try to score a "deal" on a pre-war card on Ebay, I get seriously outbid.

Now I agree that when I first got VCP, I was shocked at how far prices had come down in late 2008 to early 2009 when compared to the prior couple years. But I believe that was the low point. A lot of what I look at appears to have rebounded more recently.

Put it this way - I'm a buyer and not a seller. I consider 2009 to have been a banner year for me adding to my collection for prices I was really happy about. As for 2010...definitely not so much.

Cheers,
Blair