Looking for cardboard investment

[Mick]

I'm looking for a set, or series of prewar cards to invest in. I'm looking for a really nice set, with some challenges, and some room for it to grow value wise.

Or just some individual cards. Would you look at sgc, or PSA? Or buy sgc and PSA and try the cross to PSA? I've mostly done 50s stuff before, and the prewar era is really pulling at me.

Thanks in advance for the advice & help

[ajjohnsonsoxfan]

Mick,

I'd recommend the 14 Cracker Jacks which imho is the best set all time! It's a challenge but one that can be accomplished and right now there seems to be quite a few cards for sale on ebay and auction sites with prices that have cooled off in the last 12 months but with lots of upside given the smaller supply.

Good Luck with whatever set you go with!

A.J.

[Peter_Spaeth]

My investment advice would be, don't seek or take investment advice from people you don't know on chatboards.

[Mick]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

My investment advice would be, don't seek or take investment advice from people you don't know on chatboards.

LMAO.

I'm a big boy. But some help narrowing it down is always nice

[bbcard1]

Hang on to your money and let the investment choose you…by that I mean that if you don't have a specific target, wait to see a lot that offers a very good buy…you should be able to buy a chunk of a set at a good discount if you are patient.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Mick

LMAO.

I'm a big boy. But some help narrowing it down is always nice

Nobody here has any idea what the market is going to be tomorrow. If they pretend otherwise they are full of it. Things get hot, things get cold. In my opinion HOF rookie cards in decent grade or better are probably most likely to stand the test of time, but I could be full of it too. Or the popular issues of Ruth, Cobb, and Mantle.

[x2drich2000]

Here's my thoughts...it is impossible for anyone here to provide any unbiased recommendations without more information. What is your time frame? How much do you have to invest? What is your risk tolerance? Is this strictly for investment or for your personal enjoyment as well? How important is liquidity?

From your description, it sounds like you are looking for a set to enjoy putting together and hopefully grow a little in value. If that's the case, then what do you like? Do you care about spending a chunk of the money on a "common" player? What decade strikes your interest the most? Since everyone's opinions on what constitutes a nice set is different, I would recommend searching through the oldcardboard.com website to see what strikes your interest.

That said, a good chunk of those around here will likely say T206s in some form, weather it be subset of HOFers, portraits, rare backs, southern league, teams, etc, or the full set. Personally, I would go after a caramel set, e90-1, e92, e93, etc. Most are not too terrible to build unless you go after the more difficult sets (i.e. e105, e92 nadja, e104-3, etc).

The final thing I will say is with just about any investment, the purchase price is just as important as the final selling price.

DJ

Do your own research

[Mick]

I've always had a thing for the old tobacco and caramels.

Funny that another poster said 1914 cracker jacks. I love those.

T206 are nice, but I'll never finish that one.

I was looking at the 1911 Mecca cards, E95 philly caramels, '14 crackers and those type.

I really like the old players, like Mathewson, lajoie, Cobb etc.

My budget is probably between 10 and 15 k a year.

It's a labour of love. But I want to finish whatever it is.

[Econteachert205]

I'm happy with the t205 set I completed. Any card that doesn't facially look like the player represented makes me nervous. That is what keeps me away from the Meccas and many of the caramel offerings. For investment sake, it's better IMO to collect something with a pretty strong following. The cracker jacks as previously mentioned are great but a bit out of my price range. T3s to me represent a good value for a collector with a decent budget.

[drcy]

Good buys are found at sales/auction time. You see what is underpriced and pick them up. No set or card is a good investment if you overpay.

[travrosty]

investments and having fun building a set are two different things.

investors invest in items they believe will go up in value. collectors of a set collect every card in the set, but rarely does a set sell as a set, they usually are broken up and sold piecemeal. so it ends up being each individual card as investments, but each card in a set is not the same as far as demand and price increases (see '52 mantle).

investors would buy a rock today if they believed they could sell it for double tomorrow, or next year. but if you search long and hard for that common name card in real nice condition to complete your set, and you sell it when the set is broken up and it didnt command much more than you bought it for, it's not an investment, its a hobby.

if you are collecting for fun in a hobby, don't look at it from an investment standpoint, it's fun.

[egbeachley]

Originally Posted by Mick

I was looking at the 1911 Mecca cards, E95 philly caramels, '14 crackers and those type.
.

I think you just answered your own question. With your budget you can knock off the 1911 Mecca in just a few months, no challenge there. The E95s are more expensive but with just 25 cards in the set you should be patient in picking up what you want. 1914 CJ set is larger and will take some time.

Therefore you should work on all 3 sets at once and be frugal with your purchases (i.e. you don't need to win the next available card at all costs).

[yanksfan09]

There are some very rare, and very expensive commons in the 1914 CJ set. 1915 is another option. Both are large set with some tough cards and both are a serious challenge!

[mrvster]

T206............you could put the monster together ! don't let it defeat you...

t206 has held the test of time.....wagner fuels the set.....I would suggest hofers in decent grades......or try tougher back hofers.........you will enjoy putting it together

the safe route always is mantle, ruth, mays , Gehrig, Williams rookies...

but you said a set ....look no further than t206


I have to warn you, this is an extremely biased opinion

[Jim F]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

My investment advice would be, don't seek or take investment advice from people you don't know on chatboards.

Top 10 posts of all time

[SAllen2556]

I understand the OP's intent isn't to spend his kids' inheritance here, but as a simple collector I've always found the idea of "investing" in this hobby to be an interesting topic. Investing in baseball cards feels similar to investing in art - risky at best and very foolish if you're not an expert in the field. What cards have truly out-performed the safer investment markets like the stock market, bonds, etc.? If you had $50k to invest, who in their right mind would invest in sports cards as their primary investment? I'd much rather own a piece of property, for example. It seems like some people use the "investing" justification to fuel what could best be termed an addiction! (Again, I understand this was not the intent or situation of the OP.)

If you went back to, say, 1985, what cards could you have purchased that would have beaten the stock market or real estate over the last 30 years? I think of my parents' house in 1985 worth about $50k then, that today would sell for around $200k today. Could you have beaten that with sports cards? Wagner and Mantle come to mind, but who back then would have believed the prices today would be what they are? Just think if you'd purchased $50k worth of 1985 Topps baseball cards…yuck!

What if you had purchased the entire 1914 Cracker Jack set, or every t206 card except the biggies back then, would you, in fact, be ahead? It's fun to think about the whole time-machine thing and what you could have invested in vs. what you actually did. In 1978 I paid $5 for a 1953 Topps Al Rosen because I was 12 and it was the first "old" card I'd ever seen and I had to have it. It had two holes in it and today is worth about….$3, maybe.

[T206Collector]

It all depends on circumstance. In 1997, I bought two raw T206s from a friend - a T206 Bender Portrait for $150 and a T206 Matty White Cap for $350. Today the Bender is in an SGC 50 holder and worth about what I paid for it nearly 20 years ago. The Matty is in an SGC 60 holder and worth about 3 times what I paid for it 20 years ago. It's all in the details!

[btkpath]

I am clearly partial, but the 1914 Cracker Jacks offer a beautiful, iconic set that will be challenging, but not impossible, contains some of the hobby's iconic cards and which is in a mini-slump at the moment, with lots of inventory available at this point and coming up in future auctions.

[Leon]

If I had 10k to 15k a yr to spend, and wanted to complete a set with a lot of variables and interest, I would look at T205. It is doable and has so many ways to collect it you can do almost anything you want to. Come to think of it, I think it might be the most interesting and beautiful set I can think of. I have always thought that though, from my first T205 Johnson in a PSA 7 holder (from my auction partner when I barely knew him) around 15 yrs ago.....to today. Just a great set. As for it being an investment, buy the right cards at the right price and I don't think you will lose money. And I couldn't be happier than knowing this Cobb (from my collection just sold) ended up in one of my favorite hobbyist's collection.

[Bosox Blair]

For me, if you want upside you have to avoid cards that have already recently run up - so that rules out T206 and 1914CJ.

I agree with Leon: I think T205 would be interesting to collect and prices are low now. On the E-card side there are lots of good options - E-card pricing is generally way down from its all-time highs 8-9 years ago. As the OP indicated E95 would be a good set to build in very nice shape for not a great amount of money. Or an E93 or E92 set (but not the super-tough ones like Nadja or Red Crofts).

Have fun (and patience)!

Cheers,
Blair

[Mick]

I've decided to do the T205. As Blair said, they have been extremely flat for a number of years, are fairly available for less than knee bucking prices and are freakin sweet to look at.

I scored my first one today. A Chance PSA 6.

[EvilKing00]

Originally Posted by Mick

I've decided to do the T205. As Blair said, they have been extremely flat for a number of years, are fairly available for less than knee bucking prices and are freakin sweet to look at.

I scored my first one today. A Chance PSA 6.

Great choice mick! Alot of info on them in this forum and the arcived areas. Good luck!

[pokerplyr80]

Originally Posted by Mick

I've decided to do the T205. As Blair said, they have been extremely flat for a number of years, are fairly available for less than knee bucking prices and are freakin sweet to look at.

I scored my first one today. A Chance PSA 6.

Nice choice, a great looking set. Should I decide to try to build a set again this would be near the top of my pre-war list.

[Mick]

Well it turns out I DIDNT buy a 6. The seller had mixed in photos of a graded 6 with close ups of his raw, terrible card.

I've bought hundreds of cards, and missed the subtleties of his scam.

At least I didn't pay!

[bbcard1]

The first vintage set I did was a really rough T205 set…it has several skins and a lot of really bad looking cards…I did a blog on it and I really enjoyed it.

I did settle for only doing distinct fronts…the funky backs get really pricey. That said, a higher grade set and distinct backs will lead to better payout eventually. Some things you do as a hobby, others as an investment.

[4815162342]

Originally Posted by Mick

Well it turns out I DIDNT buy a 6. The seller had mixed in photos of a graded 6 with close ups of his raw, terrible card.



I've bought hundreds of cards, and missed the subtleties of his scam.



At least I didn't pay!

Link?

[Eric72]

Originally Posted by Mick

Well it turns out I DIDNT buy a 6. The seller had mixed in photos of a graded 6 with close ups of his raw, terrible card.

I've bought hundreds of cards, and missed the subtleties of his scam.

At least I didn't pay!

Please tell us more about this.

As for the original post, I offer the following:

Card collecting is, and ought to be, a hobby. Investing is typically done for the primary purpose of making money.

Rarely can one person find a way to truly converge the two. I was able to do this for a brief time when I was in my early 20's. As a dealer who mainly set up at card shows, I used the power of trading from the advantageous side of the show table. Many cards cycled through my inventory and I enjoyed having them...for a brief time.

Aaron rookie? Check. '56 Mantle PSA 7? Check. Gretzky rookie? Check. T206 Frank Chance Batting PSA 5? Check.

And so on, and so on.

I have tried to get back into this; however, am finding a reluctance from people to trade, relatively speaking. Perhaps I will recapture what I did as a younger man. Maybe not.

Either way, I truly enjoyed being a temporary custodian (realistically speaking, aren't we all) of certain cardboard treasures. And, along the way, I was able to make a modest living.

It is a part of my life that I treasure more and more, the deeper I delve into the collecting side of this.

Hope this helps a little. Happy collecting...or investing...or both.

Best regards,

Eric

[Mick]

Here's the link. He was totally non communicative and then once I asked him if I had just bought a raw card, he finally said I did and then invoiced me for a USPS shipping box. I live in Canada and so do they!

I asked him to cancel it, and now he's getting aggressive. I asked him to cancel or open a case. I can't believe I didn't figure this was a raw card

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1911-T205-Go...vip=true&rt=nc

[Touch'EmAll]

You don't have to get locked into one particular set. Big name HOF'ers are tough to beat - maybe a Matty from this set, a W. Johnson from that set. A cool Cobb from the other set. A T206 Cy Young perhaps. Drop some coin on a sweet Ruth. Top it off with a Goudey Gehrig and a Playball Teddy. Now you're talking.

[Mick]

I'm going to pick up some other HOF cards, and I'm going to do the Matty first. Mathewson is pretty much my favourite player from dead ball, along with Cobb. Those are my priorities. 5s on them. I'll pick away at it, and will be looking around for some deals on groupings, regardless of the set. I like the t205s, but I like a lot. I'm looking at a t206 Matty right now. Dark cap. It's a beauty.

[pokerplyr80]

Originally Posted by Mick

Well it turns out I DIDNT buy a 6. The seller had mixed in photos of a graded 6 with close ups of his raw, terrible card.

I've bought hundreds of cards, and missed the subtleties of his scam.

At least I didn't pay!

Those pictures are very misleading but I don't think I would buy a card like that in the first place from a seller who has only received feedback from 2 people.

[glchen]

Originally Posted by Mick

Here's the link. He was totally non communicative and then once I asked him if I had just bought a raw card, he finally said I did and then invoiced me for a USPS shipping box. I live in Canada and so do they!

I asked him to cancel it, and now he's getting aggressive. I asked him to cancel or open a case. I can't believe I didn't figure this was a raw card

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1911-T205-Go...vip=true&rt=nc

I would not pay for that card either. The listing is misleading.

[Bored5000]

Originally Posted by Mick

I'm looking for a set, or series of prewar cards to invest in. I'm looking for a really nice set, with some challenges, and some room for it to grow value wise.

Or just some individual cards. Would you look at sgc, or PSA? Or buy sgc and PSA and try the cross to PSA? I've mostly done 50s stuff before, and the prewar era is really pulling at me.

Thanks in advance for the advice & help

Obviously, no one wants to lose money on any purchase. But buy what you like, not because you think a card or set will appreciate the most over time. People on here are infinitely helpful with any questions you may have, but I am not sure how forthcoming posters will be to divulge publicly what cards are currently "undervalued."

[Joshwesley]

Whoever said don't seek/take financial investing advice from an internet message board was probbwly on point...
However..... T206's are probably one of the safest card investments....
They aren't making anymore of them and card prices have risen over the years.. I don't think they have ever declined?

Hall of famers, rare backs and any player with a real high grade is going to be a sound investment.... They'll never be tough to sale.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Mick

Here's the link. He was totally non communicative and then once I asked him if I had just bought a raw card, he finally said I did and then invoiced me for a USPS shipping box. I live in Canada and so do they!

I asked him to cancel it, and now he's getting aggressive. I asked him to cancel or open a case. I can't believe I didn't figure this was a raw card

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1911-T205-Go...vip=true&rt=nc

Lame listing, intentionally deceptive. Yes, in hindsight you missed it, but so too would many people.

[Beastmode]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Lame listing, intentionally deceptive. Yes, in hindsight you missed it, but so too would many people.

What exactly did he miss. This is blatant fraud. How do you get a raw card out of this auction. What a prick the seller is.

[pcoz]

I'd go with the 1911 E94 set. The most colorful set imo with 6 back colors(7 if you include orange). It's tough but certainly attainable to put together, and when the caramels come back into favor, will appreciate for sure. Also, caramels are rarer than their tobacco counterparts, and you'd only need 30 cards for the set. It was fun for me.

[mechanicalman]

Originally Posted by 100backstroke

You don't have to get locked into one particular set. Big name HOF'ers are tough to beat - maybe a Matty from this set, a W. Johnson from that set. A cool Cobb from the other set. A T206 Cy Young perhaps. Drop some coin on a sweet Ruth. Top it off with a Goudey Gehrig and a Playball Teddy. Now you're talking.

I love this approach. I know it runs counter to many of the folks on the board, but buying HoF'ers is more personally rewarding than commons. I generally know their story (try finding a biography on Virgil Davis), and that's part of the fun in collecting for me. Plus, I would guess that the pool of possible buyers for big names will always be larger for that of commons, so it feels like the safer long term play.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by mechanicalman

I love this approach. I know it runs counter to many of the folks on the board, but buying HoF'ers is more personally rewarding than commons. I generally know their story (try finding a biography on Virgil Davis), and that's part of the fun in collecting for me. Plus, I would guess that the pool of possible buyers for big names will always be larger for that of commons, so it feels like the safer long term play.

I agree. I could not care less about mediocre players and minor leaguers.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Nobody here has any idea what the market is going to be tomorrow. If they pretend otherwise they are full of it. Things get hot, things get cold. In my opinion HOF rookie cards in decent grade or better are probably most likely to stand the test of time, but I could be full of it too. Or the popular issues of Ruth, Cobb, and Mantle.

Now Pete, I thought from one of our posts/discussions just prior to the National that you didn't believe vintage collectors had any significant interest in HOF rookie cards--lol. For the record, though, I do agree with you for the most part, and completely with regard to any short term investment. Long term, a very simple formula has proven to be applicable in virtually every collectibles field with regard to appreciation in value: rare, significant, and in the best condition you can find or afford! Condition is of course the easy part, whereas determining how rare and/or significant an item is depends on study, research, and knowledge--and from there, you just have to make your best guess (or analysis). My study of the coin, car, and rare books field, as well as what has happened in this area of collectibles since the late '70's, indicates that if something is truly rare and significant, demand will eventually come around. In contrast, things which are only moderately scarce, rather than truly rare, tend to be cyclical in terms of their appreciation in value.

Always enjoy your posts and wish you the best,

Larry

[Peter_Spaeth]

Larry LOL, I guess I should have clarified I was thinking for the most part about the post-war HOF RCs that keep seeing so much appreciation -- Mantle, Aaron, Clemente, Jordan, Montana, and so forth. But I would buy those obscure pre-war ones over commons any day.

[begsu1013]

key word is "investing".

time is money. multiple shipping charges costs more money. when time to sell, all those scans/listings take more time and money...unless you consign.

if your primary focus is the investment side, keep it simple. 1 card. highest possible grade you can afford.

51/52 mantle comes to mind. again, for investment purposes.

if you want to build a pre-war set for fun, then that's a completely different animal.

don't mix investing and pleasure.

if you're looking for pleasure, find a roulette table. preferably one w/o the double 00. throw it down on black and lemme know how ya did.

[the 'stache]

Mick, good choice with the T205 set. The cards are beautiful, and you should get a lot of enjoyment from them while you own them.

As others have alluded to, you need to exercise caution when buying. This Chance auction had all kinds of red flags--2 feedback, nothing sold within the last year, obviously no history of selling cards from the same era, and pictures that anybody could find on the internet. Not only that, but there are two different cards pictured. One in a PSA slab, and another in a top loader. A cursory inspection of the two pictures shows it's clearly not the same card. Look at the left inside border. Look at the wear patterns, and different blemishes.



This is an auction you should run away from as fast as you can. It's not surprising that the seller is getting confrontational now. They're scam artists.

Don't ever hesitate to ask questions before you bid/buy. Ask the seller to provide a picture of their business card, or their EBay user name alongside the card. If they are unwilling to do this, that's a red flag. As the consumer, you need to be proactive, because while this was "only" $350, there will be more expensive cards out there. You want to establish good buying habits. They will serve you well.

The BST here is an excellent resource. If you buy off site, and are unsure if the card(s) you are considering are legit, ask questions of the members here. We all try to police the hobby, and help each other out.

Good luck with your collection!

Bill

[rjackson44]

buy what you like😀😀😀

[aljurgela]

Generally I would be reluctant to buy JUST for the hope of making $. Unless you get "lucky" with a low price (rare these days), you have substantially more transaction costs when selling through eBay or auction houses. Basically, if you buy a set for $10k today and you need to sell it tomorrow, you will need to get $11.5k just to break even on your fees.

If you are looking at a 10% return in a year, you need to identify something that will increase by 25% in a year. That is tough.

This said, if you want to look for the long term, I would go with something that is "relatively" undervalued. I could post again my thoughts on a "market cap" dynamic that I believe will balance in time, but we do not know when that time is. In general, my market cap philosophy goes as follows...

If you believe that Babe Ruth is the best player ever, the combined value of his cards should be worth more than anyone else. Of course this theory does not lack for holes (some of the more notable: availability of issue, entry price point can exclude certain would be purchasers - which is why companies have stock splits and Berkshire Hathaway has two classes of shares, beauty of the issue, etc.). But in general, if there were only 10 Ruth rookies and 10 Mantle rookies, you would expect the Ruth rookies to be "valued" more... right?

I have done some math on the # of graded cards of some key HOFers and my analysis generally leads me to the conclusion that certain players are over-valued and some are undervalued.

In general, players from the 50's (Mantle, Mays, Clemente, Aaron) tend to be over-valued from this perspective as do some "outliers" like Wagner and Plank (for obvious T206 reasons). Ruth is still cheap (at least the rookies) in my opinion as are a number of Negro Leaguers (I am very biased here, but the data supports it).

Sets are tougher to do this with. I would focus on ones that you can easily sell, if need be. The Cracker Jacks and T206 recommendations are "safe" from my opinion, but there are a number of cool options.

Best advice is get what you like as you may be "stuck" with it.

Best of luck.

[Mick]

I'm going to pick away at the T205. It's cool as hell, has a number of toughies to keep me interested, and of course, has my two guys : Cobb and Matty.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Mick

I'm going to pick away at the T205. It's cool as hell, has a number of toughies to keep me interested, and of course, has my two guys : Cobb and Matty.

It really does have all of the elements of a great collecting experience. Good luck and keep us updated!!

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Larry LOL, I guess I should have clarified I was thinking for the most part about the post-war HOF RCs that keep seeing so much appreciation -- Mantle, Aaron, Clemente, Jordan, Montana, and so forth. But I would buy those obscure pre-war ones over commons any day.

Pete, did you see the gargantuan sums the Clemente and Koufax rookies in PSA 9 went for in the Heritage auction a little over a month ago? More than $300K each, if memory serves correctly. This tells me that our little old hobby has quite a ways to go, especially once the big boys get involved! Personally, I believe that even Pre-War is in its infancy, compared to other collectible fields. If anyone else won an item as I did in Leon's recent auction, they likely received a book from Heritage along with it. Some of the other items in various other areas of collecting which were depicted in this book fetched truly astronomical $$$.

Best wishes,

Larry

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by ls7plus

Pete, did you see the gargantuan sums the Clemente and Koufax rookies in PSA 9 went for in the Heritage auction a little over a month ago? More than $300K each, if memory serves correctly. This tells me that our little old hobby has quite a ways to go, especially once the big boys get involved! Personally, I believe that even Pre-War is in its infancy, compared to other collectible fields. If anyone else won an item as I did in Leon's recent auction, they likely received a book from Heritage along with it. Some of the other items in various other areas of collecting which were depicted in this book fetched truly astronomical $$$.

Best wishes,

Larry

Larry yeah I saw those. Flip buying madness.