Value of Willie Mays cards - already peaked? Or more room at the top?

[Belfast1933]

I am debating where to turn next with my Grail Card chase…. This is a bit of an uncomfortable topic so forgive me if it’s insensitive to ask.

But I would appreciate hearing others perspective (or even analysis) of the expected value of Willie Mays early issue cards (like his Bowman RC) before or after he passes. I didn’t study it carefully, but Hank Aaron’s passing seemed to coincide with COVID shut-in which double impacted his RC to very high costs.

What do you think? Do you expect it will cost much more for a Mays RC after he passes? Or is that growth in value and appreciation for his greatness already baked into the value of the card?

Thanks for your thoughts/advice

Jeff

[jsfriedm]

This may not help much, because I can't say how high the bump will be or how lasting it will be. But my suspicion is, when Mays passes (and I hope not for a while), that there will be a tremendous amount of attention paid to it around baseball. I think they will introduce some kind of Willie Mays Award, there might be a push to retire 24 around baseball, and most importantly, I think there will be a move to sort of canonize him as the Greatest of All-Time. Baseball doesn't quite have its Gretzky, Jordan, or Brady, and while most would say Babe Ruth, the problem is that now that they have declared the Negro Leagues to be Major Leagues, it is problematic to have a GOAT who played segregated baseball. So Willie Mays seems like a logical choice for many reasons. I think future generations of baseball fans will hear much more about Willie Mays than Mickey Mantle because of this.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Belfast1933

I am debating where to turn next with my Grail Card chase…. This is a bit of an uncomfortable topic so forgive me if it’s insensitive to ask.

But I would appreciate hearing others perspective (or even analysis) of the expected value of Willie Mays early issue cards (like his Bowman RC) before or after he passes. I didn’t study it carefully, but Hank Aaron’s passing seemed to coincide with COVID shut-in which double impacted his RC to very high costs.

What do you think? Do you expect it will cost much more for a Mays RC after he passes? Or is that growth in value and appreciation for his greatness already baked into the value of the card?

Thanks for your thoughts/advice

Jeff

I hate thinking about these things but if you want a strait forward answer this is the best I can give...More for several months...then will level off.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by jsfriedm

This may not help much, because I can't say how high the bump will be or how lasting it will be. But my suspicion is, when Mays passes (and I hope not for a while), that there will be a tremendous amount of attention paid to it around baseball. I think they will introduce some kind of Willie Mays Award, there might be a push to retire 24 around baseball, and most importantly, I think there will be a move to sort of canonize him as the Greatest of All-Time. Baseball doesn't quite have its Gretzky, Jordan, or Brady, and while most would say Babe Ruth, the problem is that now that they have declared the Negro Leagues to be Major Leagues, it is problematic to have a GOAT who played segregated baseball. So Willie Mays seems like a logical choice for many reasons. I think future generations of baseball fans will hear much more about Willie Mays than Mickey Mantle because of this.

I hesitate to say it, but I would agree for the most part. I think we've seen a stabilization of Post-War vintage, for now, at least until the next shoe drops. I hate to talk about the potential of one of the all time greats of the game passing away, especially because at the end of the day, he's a person.

I think baseball, for the most part, truly functions without having the "Greatest of All Time" debate, constantly. Too many different eras and changes, history is also greatly ingrained within the game. Fans of the Negro Leagues, Cuban Leagues, etc do not represent the majority. Takes someone with a passion for the history of our game to really get involved with that aspect of the games past.

However, I hope concerning your last point, you are correct, as it will make it a little bit easier to finish up my Mantle run, if that becomes the case!

[Snapolit1]

There will be tremendous media attenion and accolades when Mays passes. One of the ultimate icons in the sport. Having said that, his cards have run up a ton and I'd be real surprised if a lot of people wake up the next day and decide for the first time that they want to spend $50,000 on a Mays card.

[Republicaninmass]

I thought for years when Berra passed his cards would jump. It took covid to get any such movement in price on his cards. He is one of the single most underrated players. Might be since he was known for being a clown, but his prowess is right up there with some of the best.


Mays, has really taken off post covid. Maybe some of his signed cards might jump, but he hasnt signed since early 2010s I believe. That being said I would think a slight bump, then the sellers come out in droves, and there is a plateau. I really cant see anyone not knowing who Mays was, and all of a sudden needs a 10k card of his

[Belfast1933]

This is all very helpful - thx all… I am less interested in buy/sell after a run up in value as I am to not have to spend up considerably later if I choose to add a nice early Mays, like his 51 Bowman.

[raulus]

Predicting prices, especially in the short run, is a fool’s errand. Not that any of us are any better over the long term…

Having said that, my sense is that when Hammerin’ Hank left us, everyone looked around and realized that Willie was the oldest living HOFer, and as such it was just a matter of time. While prices since the pandemic are more broadly up ~300%, a lot of the Mays pieces are up 500%+, and in some cases more like 1000%. As such, I suspect that some or all of the action is already priced in.

At the same time, betting against increases in future prices for Mays has been a seriously losing bet for some time now. So the current elevated prices could get even more extreme when the end for Willie actually arrives.

Here’s hoping he still has a few more decades left in the tank.

[Snapolit1]

If Willie makes it a few more decades he will be know for a lot more than just baseball.

Originally Posted by raulus

Predicting prices, especially in the short run, is a fool’s errand. Not that any of us are any better over the long term…

Having said that, my sense is that when Hammerin’ Hank left us, everyone looked around and realized that Willie was the oldest living HOFer, and as such it was just a matter of time. While prices since the pandemic are more broadly up ~300%, a lot of the Mays pieces are up 500%+, and in some cases more like 1000%. As such, I suspect that some or all of the action is already priced in.

At the same time, betting against increases in future prices for Mays has been a seriously losing bet for some time now. So the current elevated prices could get even more extreme when the end for Willie actually arrives.

Here’s hoping he still has a few more decades left in the tank.

[Peter_Spaeth]

IMO if you want a Mays card buy it when the right one comes along that speaks to you. Stop overanalyzing this and other purchases.

[darwinbulldog]

For the most part I'd say it's already baked in. Maybe there's a bit of a bump in prices for like a month or so but probably more for his later cards than for his rookie card. I do agree in the long run (say 25 years from now) that Mays will catch up to or move ahead of Mantle prices as I expect the people who have an interest in collecting vintage baseball cards then will be disproportionately sabermetricians, and I think those folks all pretty much agree that Mays was the better player. Whether those 2048 prices will be higher than 2023 prices I have no idea. I expect I'll be out of the hobby by then.

[ALBB]

yes, in a few decades Mays would be ...Oh...about 133 yr old

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by ALBB

yes, in a few decades Mays would be ...Oh...about 133 yr old

Hey, don't underestimate the power of diet pills and exercise.

[parkplace33]

Bottom line is this.... Iconic players' card prices don't go down in the long term. Find what you want and buy it.

[Yoda]

Willie passed the iconic status a long time ago.

[Bpm0014]

Uncomfortable topic for sure. But I have a Willie Mays game used bat that I will be selling after he passes for the same exact reason. But i hope not for a really long while...

[G1911]

He is 91 years old. I find it unlikely this sign already priced in for the most part, probably a small short term bump for a few weeks. Hopefully I am wrong and our members will be able to eek more profit margin than I expect out of his death.

[MR RAREBACK]

I think it will go down a lot further before it starts going up again, I think most of the 1950’s and up will fall a lot further before they start going up again.
There is just to many available easy to find. Every vintage table has tons of 50’s and 60’s so boring. Stick with pre war

[JollyElm]

422. Mourning Track Power
Buying up cards of a very old former player for the sole purpose of selling them at exorbitant prices on the gigantic bubble that will surely come after he passes away.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Very good, Darren. LOL.

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by MR RAREBACK

I think it will go down a lot further before it starts going up again, I think most of the 1950’s and up will fall a lot further before they start going up again.
There is just to many available easy to find. Every vintage table has tons of 50’s and 60’s so boring. Stick with pre war

t206s and 33 goudeys are more plentiful than 1952 topps!

[rand1com]

1951 Bowman and 1952 Topps in high grade will continue to go up whether he passes or not. Low grade cards of these issues will likely not. They will settle at a consistent price. He signed a ton over the years but his autograph will see a small spike when he dies although he has not signed in many years so his supply has been the same over those years as it will be when he passes.

[Casey2296]

-
A card for every thread.
-

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

IMO if you want a Mays card buy it when the right one comes along that speaks to you. Stop overanalyzing this and other purchases.

This.

If you have the money set aside and the card speaks to you and you are going to have it for a good long time, the rest is academic.

And a card...

[G1911]

This is my favorite Willie Mays item. It has been appraised at $0.

My family loved Willie Mays; my mom's dad owned a jewelry store in the Bay Area that served many of the Giants players families and Willie gave my mother a personalized signed photo when she was a little girl, which still hangs on her living room wall 50 something years later. Willie was as cool as baseball history got in our house. When I was really little, my favorite card was the 1966 Willie Mays, because it was Willie and I liked the 66 design. I got one for like $5 off eBay in its early days, which was over a months allowance money ($1 for trash, the dishes, vacuuming and dusting each week) at the time and a big deal. And so when Halloween rolled around, I told my Dad I wanted to go as Willie Mays 1966 card. Not Willie Mays, but Willie Mays' baseball card specifically. And so my Dad, who is no artist, did the best he could and made this with two pieces of sandwich board. Simplified the back cartoon and cut off the hometown and copyright lines, but everything else is as good as we could make it. ~7 year old me got to run around with this and a sugar high. I was happy. Dad was probably happy he didn't have to do this again and could stop trying to draw. I wore it like 3 halloweens in a row without any sense of shame. I don't think anyone in town got it except the guy who ran the local comic book/card store.

[ALBB]

Now that's a cool old story !!

[obcbobd]

Originally Posted by G1911

This is my favorite Willie Mays item. It has been appraised at $0.

My family loved Willie Mays; my mom's dad owned a jewelry store in the Bay Area that served many of the Giants players families and Willie gave my mother a personalized signed photo when she was a little girl, which still hangs on her living room wall 50 something years later. Willie was as cool as baseball history got in our house. When I was really little, my favorite card was the 1966 Willie Mays, because it was Willie and I liked the 66 design. I got one for like $5 off eBay in its early days, which was over a months allowance money ($1 for trash, the dishes, vacuuming and dusting each week) at the time and a big deal. And so when Halloween rolled around, I told my Dad I wanted to go as Willie Mays 1966 card. Not Willie Mays, but Willie Mays' baseball card specifically. And so my Dad, who is no artist, did the best he could and made this with two pieces of sandwich board. Simplified the back cartoon and cut off the hometown and copyright lines, but everything else is as good as we could make it. ~7 year old me got to run around with this and a sugar high. I was happy. Dad was probably happy he didn't have to do this again and could stop trying to draw. I wore it like 3 halloweens in a row without any sense of shame. I don't think anyone in town got it except the guy who ran the local comic book/card store.

Best

Dad

Ever!

[irv]

Great story, Greg!

My 52 Topps Mays. Real curious what this one would grade out as? I'm hoping a 4 but maybe I'm being too optimistic?

[conor912]

Originally Posted by G1911

This is my favorite Willie Mays item. It has been appraised at $0.

My family loved Willie Mays; my mom's dad owned a jewelry store in the Bay Area that served many of the Giants players families and Willie gave my mother a personalized signed photo when she was a little girl, which still hangs on her living room wall 50 something years later. Willie was as cool as baseball history got in our house. When I was really little, my favorite card was the 1966 Willie Mays, because it was Willie and I liked the 66 design. I got one for like $5 off eBay in its early days, which was over a months allowance money ($1 for trash, the dishes, vacuuming and dusting each week) at the time and a big deal. And so when Halloween rolled around, I told my Dad I wanted to go as Willie Mays 1966 card. Not Willie Mays, but Willie Mays' baseball card specifically. And so my Dad, who is no artist, did the best he could and made this with two pieces of sandwich board. Simplified the back cartoon and cut off the hometown and copyright lines, but everything else is as good as we could make it. ~7 year old me got to run around with this and a sugar high. I was happy. Dad was probably happy he didn't have to do this again and could stop trying to draw. I wore it like 3 halloweens in a row without any sense of shame. I don't think anyone in town got it except the guy who ran the local comic book/card store.

This is what it’s all about. Incredible!

[JustinD]

Your dad is one hell of a good guy.

This statement below made me realize how young you are though and I now am having an existential 'old man' moment, lol

Originally Posted by G1911

When I was really little, my favorite card was the 1966 Willie Mays, because it was Willie and I liked the 66 design. I got one for like $5 off eBay in its early days, which was over a months allowance money ($1 for trash, the dishes, vacuuming and dusting each week) at the time and a big deal.

[Johnny630]

Sliding In !

[rand1com]

Originally Posted by irv

Great story, Greg!

My 52 Topps Mays. Real curious what this one would grade out as? I'm hoping a 4 but maybe I'm being too optimistic?

If the back is clean, a 4 should be reasonable based on the front scan.

[Neal]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Sliding In !

Sweet!

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

[MR RAREBACK]

Originally Posted by G1911

This is my favorite Willie Mays item. It has been appraised at $0.

My family loved Willie Mays; my mom's dad owned a jewelry store in the Bay Area that served many of the Giants players families and Willie gave my mother a personalized signed photo when she was a little girl, which still hangs on her living room wall 50 something years later. Willie was as cool as baseball history got in our house. When I was really little, my favorite card was the 1966 Willie Mays, because it was Willie and I liked the 66 design. I got one for like $5 off eBay in its early days, which was over a months allowance money ($1 for trash, the dishes, vacuuming and dusting each week) at the time and a big deal. And so when Halloween rolled around, I told my Dad I wanted to go as Willie Mays 1966 card. Not Willie Mays, but Willie Mays' baseball card specifically. And so my Dad, who is no artist, did the best he could and made this with two pieces of sandwich board. Simplified the back cartoon and cut off the hometown and copyright lines, but everything else is as good as we could make it. ~7 year old me got to run around with this and a sugar high. I was happy. Dad was probably happy he didn't have to do this again and could stop trying to draw. I wore it like 3 halloweens in a row without any sense of shame. I don't think anyone in town got it except the guy who ran the local comic book/card store.

Awesome

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by irv

Great story, Greg!

My 52 Topps Mays. Real curious what this one would grade out as? I'm hoping a 4 but maybe I'm being too optimistic?

Yes, assuming no hidden flaws, this would be a lock as a 4 with both PSA and SGC. No chance at a 5. Probably gets a 4 at SGC 99 times out of 100, and a 4 at PSA 85 times out of 100, and a 3 the other 15 times.

[Snowman]

Historically speaking, the market typically doesn't move much for athletes whose deaths aren't a surprise. They really only spike when it's a tragic unexpected death, like in the case of Kobe Bryant. For Mays, the data would suggest there is likely to be a very small, short-term increase in prices, but not a big movement. People have been discussing his age and the likelihood that he won't be with us much longer for several years now. The efficient market hypothesis suggests that his death is already priced in, as it's an expected relatively near-term event.

Also, autograph prices typically see a larger increase after a player's death than regular card prices do, if that's of any help.

Let's hope this is still all several years away though. Mays is the GOAT. No question in my mind.

[Steve D]

Deleted

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by Belfast1933

This is all very helpful - thx all… I am less interested in buy/sell after a run up in value as I am to not have to spend up considerably later if I choose to add a nice early Mays, like his 51 Bowman.

I feel a card like this is much like your dream home. Can you afford a 30% down payment in the house and area you'd like to live in forever. Can you pay it off in 15 years or less?

Can you afford a card like that without taking away from retirement, kids education, monthly expenses, 10% saved for home repairs annually? is your home paid off? Do you have at least 24 months FU fund in cash? Ifsofatso, now your ready to buy the card at whatever the price. It really won't matter if it's for your collection if you find the card you'll love.

Unless you like to shoot from the hip, gamble with your families future or flip it, LOL.

But seriously, get the card when it's right for you...and then don't look back. GOOD LUCK!

[Fuddjcal]

Originally Posted by G1911

This is my favorite Willie Mays item. It has been appraised at $0.

My family loved Willie Mays; my mom's dad owned a jewelry store in the Bay Area that served many of the Giants players families and Willie gave my mother a personalized signed photo when she was a little girl, which still hangs on her living room wall 50 something years later. Willie was as cool as baseball history got in our house. When I was really little, my favorite card was the 1966 Willie Mays, because it was Willie and I liked the 66 design. I got one for like $5 off eBay in its early days, which was over a months allowance money ($1 for trash, the dishes, vacuuming and dusting each week) at the time and a big deal. And so when Halloween rolled around, I told my Dad I wanted to go as Willie Mays 1966 card. Not Willie Mays, but Willie Mays' baseball card specifically. And so my Dad, who is no artist, did the best he could and made this with two pieces of sandwich board. Simplified the back cartoon and cut off the hometown and copyright lines, but everything else is as good as we could make it. ~7 year old me got to run around with this and a sugar high. I was happy. Dad was probably happy he didn't have to do this again and could stop trying to draw. I wore it like 3 halloweens in a row without any sense of shame. I don't think anyone in town got it except the guy who ran the local comic book/card store.

Amazing you still have it! It's beautiful and so is the story. Thanks for sharing.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by irv

Great story, Greg!

My 52 Topps Mays. Real curious what this one would grade out as? I'm hoping a 4 but maybe I'm being too optimistic?

If the back is nice, my guess would be 3.5 to 4. Nice looking card.

As to the question if Mays has topped out, who knows? It's a crazy hobby and when he does pass away, there will probably be a little spike.
.

[irv]

Originally Posted by rand1com

If the back is clean, a 4 should be reasonable based on the front scan.

Originally Posted by Snowman

Yes, assuming no hidden flaws, this would be a lock as a 4 with both PSA and SGC. No chance at a 5. Probably gets a 4 at SGC 99 times out of 100, and a 4 at PSA 85 times out of 100, and a 3 the other 15 times.

Originally Posted by Leon

If the back is nice, my guess would be 3.5 to 4. Nice looking card.

As to the question if Mays has topped out, who knows? It's a crazy hobby and when he does pass away, there will probably be a little spike.
.

Thanks guys.
The back is clean, or as nice as the front too.
I did notice a small mark in the lower left outside the word **"lifetime" but I have noticed this same mark on some others as well so it is not a pen mark but rather a factory mark.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by obcbobd

Best

Dad

Ever!

Originally Posted by conor912

This is what it’s all about. Incredible!

Originally Posted by irv

Great story, Greg!

Originally Posted by Fuddjcal

Amazing you still have it! It's beautiful and so is the story. Thanks for sharing.

Great Dad indeed!

Originally Posted by JustinD

Your dad is one hell of a good guy.

This statement below made me realize how young you are though and I now am having an existential 'old man' moment, lol

If you want to feel really old, I'm the same age as PSA.


And here's my favorite Willie, for sentimental reasons. I'd probably pick his 53 Topps for pure aesthetic value, but I'm biased to paintings. I doubt low grade 60's Mays' cards will achieve much value, but who cares.

[ullmandds]

I believe there will be a temporary bump as well as lesser known/collected issues grtting more respect Nd a prrmanent price bump…like the howard photos.

[Bpm0014]

My only post war item. Mays gamer.