Future HOFers

[rats60]

Originally Posted by bn2cardz

Preface this with saying I am in St. Louis.
The problem with the anti (Yadier) Molina camp is that, as with any catcher, you can't just look at offense. Molina has been the team captain since he joined the team in 2004.

Molina has is ranked 18 all time in putouts and the only active player ahead of him (Pierzynski) has 6 more years then him (the least amount of years ahead of him is 3 more seasons).

His total zone runs is ranked only second behind Ivan Rodriguez.

His caught stealing percentage leads the way buy 5.97% of the next active catcher.

He also may not have the most impressive offensive numbers, but they aren't shabby either.

This combined with the fact that he has a .328 BA in 21 World Series games he may have enough to push him over.

And he does this all as a FULL TIME catcher (Molina has the second most games as a Catcher again behind Pierzynsk), having only played 2 full games as a 1st baseman (after starting in 4 and playing in a total 32). Compare this to Posey (someone mentioned may be the best catcher) who has already started 132 games at 1B. Also Posey only has a dWAR of 5, with his best season topping out at 2 (Molina has a career dWAR of 20 with 5 seasons at 2 or higher).

Posey is a good offensive player, but I predict he will be moved to a full time 1B position to keep him playing as happens to most catchers with better offense than defense.

All this said I don't think this makes him a sure shot. I believe he needs a few more decent seasons to make it more clear that he deserves to be in the ranks of the other catcher greats, but he is certainly shown he has what it takes thus far.

His WAR is 30.5. Maybe if it was 40+ I could see a case. 50+ as a catcher and I would have him as a lock. Mauer is at 47.5 and people are questioning him. Posey is already at 28.1 and will sail by Molina. Even a few more good years leaves him well short.

I'm not a big WAR guy, I see a lot of problems with it. However when we are comparing players at the same position, I also see it's value. More and more HOF voters are going to look at advance metrics and use them in their process. Molina is a very good player, just not HOF worthy.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by rats60

His WAR is 30.5. Maybe if it was 40+ I could see a case. 50+ as a catcher and I would have him as a lock. Mauer is at 47.5 and people are questioning him. Posey is already at 28.1 and will sail by Molina. Even a few more good years leaves him well short.

I'm not a big WAR guy, I see a lot of problems with it. However when we are comparing players at the same position, I also see it's value. More and more HOF voters are going to look at advance metrics and use them in their process. Molina is a very good player, just not HOF worthy.

This goes back to my paragraph about full time catchers. Mauer hasn't played a game as a catcher since 2013. Posey is being groomed to move to 1st base, as this season he only has 73 CG behind the plate compared to Molina's 93 CG. This year Posey only has 721.2 innings compared to Molina's 984.1 innings thus far (where as Posey has only had one season that has even exceeded this number and they still have until Oct 4th). Posey is the better Offesive player, but that is why I believe he will be utilized more as a 1st baseman in the future and he will not be the best catcher as you stated.

Again, I know I am bias and I know it isn't a sure thing, but I wouldn't count him out as career catchers are rare and even rarer to maintain as the premier defensive catcher after 10 years.

[Joshchisox08]

Originally Posted by ksabet

So Bonds (Yes PEDs but who cares he was light years better than everyone else taking them) doesn't get in and Harold Baines does? If this happens The HOF has zero credit in my book. We should be talking who to take out not trying fit more guys in.

BTW I can't think of a single White Sox player who I think isn't in yet deserves to be. Maybe Raines but thats it.

Raines over Baines ???? Current Sox player not to be in yeah I did say those were stretches. What about Minoso ? Or Pierce ? Both stretches too

I'd never vote for Bonds sorry just my stand point on him as a person (how you handled the media counts even though it shouldn't see Jack Morris for that) and as a jealous PED user.

If you let PED users in McGwire should be a lock as well as Sosa. At least those guys were likable. And they both have the stats or should we say HR's to put them in.

[HOF Auto Rookies]

Originally Posted by packs

I don't think Mauer will get in. He had some great years as an elite catcher but I don't think it was enough. People have already forgotten for the most part.

But the things he did for those years no catcher had ever done before.


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[ksabet]

Originally Posted by Joshchisox08

Raines over Baines ???? Current Sox player not to be in yeah I did say those were stretches. What about Minoso ? Or Pierce ? Both stretches too

I'd never vote for Bonds sorry just my stand point on him as a person (how you handled the media counts even though it shouldn't see Jack Morris for that) and as a jealous PED user.

If you let PED users in McGwire should be a lock as well as Sosa. At least those guys were likable. And they both have the stats or should we say HR's to put them in.

Admittedly I don't know a ton of the Metrics on Baines but I am in the "You judge players in the era they played" Category and I feel as though they should all get in just notate it as the "Steroid Era" like we have the "deadball era", etc.

So yes McGwire Palmeiro Sosa Bonds...I believe should get in.

[HOF Auto Rookies]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Woulda coulda shoulda.



Chris Sale has 56 wins. Why are we even talking about him? Revisit in 5 years.

Idk, maybe because of almost 1,000 K's through his age 26 season. Certainly has the looks of getting to 3k.

Felix will be a HOF'ER, if healthy. He played on bad Mariners teams and doesn't have many wins. Gunna hold him back too? Pointless column is Wins.


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[ksabet]

Originally Posted by HOF Auto Rookies

Idk, maybe because of almost 1,000 K's through his age 26 season. Certainly has the looks of getting to 3k.

Felix will be a HOF'ER, if healthy. He played on bad Mariners teams and doesn't have many wins. Gunna hold him back too? Pointless column is Wins.


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Would anyone consider these guys the best at their respective positions for 5-10 years? Probably not. Maddux "yes", Glavine "yes" Pedro "yes". Sale "not yet" Hernandez "no", Jack Morris "no" etc.

I think Sale will get there if he stays healthy. He's up there with Kershaw etc.

[Joshchisox08]

Originally Posted by ksabet

Would anyone consider these guys the best at their respective positions for 5-10 years? Probably not. Maddux "yes", Glavine "yes" Pedro "yes". Sale "not yet" Hernandez "no", Jack Morris "no" etc.

I think Sale will get there if he stays healthy. He's up there with Kershaw etc.

I'm biased but I like Sale and would take him over Kershaw Kershaw get's to face a pitcher at bat about 50 times a year and he also has done dung in the playoffs.

Also if he weren't on the Sox his record would be just a tad better. WE SUCK. Look at poor Quintana most ND's over the last 4 years in baseball.

[HOF Auto Rookies]

Originally Posted by ksabet

Would anyone consider these guys the best at their respective positions for 5-10 years? Probably not. Maddux "yes", Glavine "yes" Pedro "yes". Sale "not yet" Hernandez "no", Jack Morris "no" etc.

I think Sale will get there if he stays healthy. He's up there with Kershaw etc.

I would say Sale and Felix are the best pitchers in the AL and 2/3 in all of baseball behind Kershaw for the past few years, so yes.

Sale seems to be competing every year for the strikeout title.


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[midwaylandscaping]

Lots of potentials in that timeframe. One doesn't know how certain players will be viewed down the line / who else gets revealed as a PED guy. I'll stay within the current voting enviroment and stick with guys I feel will deserve to be in, vote or vet committee. Most will be 90's to mid 2k's players off the top of my head so I'll miss some guys. I'll leave the Posey's, Trout's, Mauer's to others

Mariano Rivera
Mike Piazza
Jim Thome
Larry Walker
Jeff Bagwell
Tim Raines
Mike Mussina
Lee Smith
Adrian Beltre
Jeff Kent
Edgar Martinez
Ken Griffey Jr
Trevor Hoffman
Fred McGriff
Ivan Rodriguez
Vladimir Guerrero
Chipper Jones
Scott Rolen
Andruw Jones
Omar Vizquel
Todd Helton
Carlos Delgado
Carlos Beltran
Albert Pujols

I've missed some names in there. When Clemens and Bonds are elected it likely opens up the gates a bit for some others like McGwire, Ortiz etc. I like players such as Torii Hunter, Jim Edmonds, Jorge Posada etc but I dunno. I see them getting the Alan Trammell - Dwight Evans style treatment myself. Curt Schilling , Roy Halladay are going to get close if not in IMO, similar to Jack Morris style ballots. Some of the new guys, Harper, Trout, etc. Who knows. You can have 4-5 top notch seasons then it can come crashing down quick (Don Mattingly). Jury is out IMO.

[HOF Auto Rookies]

Originally Posted by midwaylandscaping

Lots of potentials in that timeframe. One doesn't know how certain players will be viewed down the line / who else gets revealed as a PED guy. I'll stay within the current voting enviroment and stick with guys I feel will deserve to be in, vote or vet committee. Most will be 90's to mid 2k's players off the top of my head so I'll miss some guys. I'll leave the Posey's, Trout's, Mauer's to others



Mariano Rivera

Mike Piazza

Jim Thome

Larry Walker

Jeff Bagwell

Tim Raines

Mike Mussina

Lee Smith

Adrian Beltre

Jeff Kent

Edgar Martinez

Ken Griffey Jr

Trevor Hoffman

Fred McGriff

Ivan Rodriguez

Vladimir Guerrero

Chipper Jones

Scott Rolen

Andruw Jones

Omar Vizquel

Todd Helton

Carlos Delgado

Carlos Beltran

Albert Pujols



I've missed some names in there. When Clemens and Bonds are elected it likely opens up the gates a bit for some others like McGwire, Ortiz etc. I like players such as Torii Hunter, Jim Edmonds, Jorge Posada etc but I dunno. I see them getting the Alan Trammell - Dwight Evans style treatment myself. Curt Schilling , Roy Halladay are going to get close if not in IMO, similar to Jack Morris style ballots. Some of the new guys, Harper, Trout, etc. Who knows. You can have 4-5 top notch seasons then it can come crashing down quick (Don Mattingly). Jury is out IMO.

I'd love for Torii to just get a vote or two. So glad he's back home.


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[Joshchisox08]

Originally Posted by HOF Auto Rookies

I would say Sale and Felix are the best pitchers in the AL and 2/3 in all of baseball behind Kershaw for the past few years, so yes.

Sale seems to be competing every year for the strikeout title.


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He's got 220k's this year his career high is 226 he's being compared to Randy Johnson more and more lately and that makes me one happy Sox fan !!! If he can even come close to what Johnson did

[midwaylandscaping]

Originally Posted by HOF Auto Rookies

I'd love for Torii to just get a vote or two. So glad he's back home.


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I think he gets more than a vote or two

[HOF Auto Rookies]

Originally Posted by midwaylandscaping

I think he gets more than a vote or two

He better!


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[ksabet]

Originally Posted by HOF Auto Rookies

I would say Sale and Felix are the best pitchers in the AL and 2/3 in all of baseball behind Kershaw for the past few years, so yes.

Sale seems to be competing every year for the strikeout title.


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I like both guys and think they are dominant just want to see them do it for longer before I declare them HOFers.

But I do think regardless of league that Kershaw is the most dominant pitcher to come along in a while.

[packs]

Chris Sale, Clayton Kershaw, and King Felix are all in the Johan Santana / JR Richard boat right now. You can't call any of them a HOFer and none of them have the career to get them in today. Each of them could just as easily become a Johan or JR in the blink of an eye.

Remember Tim Lincecum? He's still pitching for the Giants, not that you would notice.

[HOF Auto Rookies]

Originally Posted by ksabet

I like both guys and think they are dominant just want to see them do it for longer before I declare them HOFers.



But I do think regardless of league that Kershaw is the most dominant pitcher to come along in a while.

Oh for sure! 100% agree. Was just saying they've been dominant for 5+ years or so (except Sale this is his 5th great season), but I'll feel a lot more comfortable with another 5-7+ solid years.

Oh yes, he's truly amazing. If he continues injury free, could be top-5 lefty.


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[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

Chris Sale, Clayton Kershaw, and King Felix are all in the Johan Santana / JR Richard boat right now. You can't call any of them a HOFer and none of them have the career to get them in today. Each of them could just as easily become a Johan or JR in the blink of an eye.

Remember Tim Lincecum? He's still pitching for the Giants, not that you would notice.

Doc Gooden. Roy Oswalt. CC Sabathia. The list goes on.

[glchen]

I don't think the PED users should get in, but you should probably hedge and keep them just in case.

I don't think I've seen these names yet:

Madison Bumgarner
Dale Murphy
Will Clark
Andy Pettite

[HOF Auto Rookies]

Originally Posted by glchen

I don't think the PED users should get in, but you should probably hedge and keep them just in case.



I don't think I've seen these names yet:



Madison Bumgarner

Dale Murphy

Will Clark

Andy Pettite

Pettite was a user.


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[glchen]

Originally Posted by HOF Auto Rookies

Pettite was a user.


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I know. Just saying if you start letting Bonds and Clemens get in, these others will probably follow. Not that I agree with it.

[HOF Auto Rookies]

Originally Posted by glchen

I know. Just saying if you start letting Bonds and Clemens get in, these others will probably follow. Not that I agree with it.

Oh, gotcha. Sorry, didn't know if you had known or not lol.


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[D. Bergin]

Haven't seen Joey Votto mentioned yet. .955 career OPS, and he's having a nice bounce back year right now.

If we are mentioning PED guys, Ryan Braun has to be mentioned as a possibility if he keeps his numbers up.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by kevinlenane

Ortiz

I think Ortiz will have a little difficulty in the short run, after having tested positive for steroids in the initial 2003 testing (results of which were supposed to have remained confidential, but did not in many cases).

Collect him if you like him,

Larry

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by sycks22

Beltre

A very good bet there, I think. Exceptional hitting production for a third baseman, and great in the field.

Larry

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by ls7plus

A very good bet there, I think. Exceptional hitting production for a third baseman, and great in the field.

Larry

I dunno. Yes to what you say, but on the other hand, one HR title, one hits title, no MVPs, only 4 all star selections, and who but a hardcore fan could even tell you where he played? EDIT TO ADD If he keeps going and gets to 3000 hits, then I think his odds vastly improve. If not, he may be Dave Parker.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by packs

Guys who haven't been named yet:

Jorge Posada (eventually)
Ivan Rodriguez (probably)
Chipper Jones
Omar Vizquel (eventually)
Roy Halladay (maybe)
Buster Posey (might be the greatest catcher of all time one day)


A word to the wise re: Kershaw / Felix. I'd be very careful. Johan looked like a lock too after winning 2 CYs and 3 ERA titles. Things ended much differently than they started.

Just a few comments here. Pudge Rodriguez had an immense degree of difficulty explaining to Detroit newspaper writers the diet he had followed in losing 28 pounds one off-season while he was with the Tigers (and with the weight went his power). Just coincidentally of course, the weight loss occurred after steroid testing came in. Should that matter be recalled and discussed when he becomes eligible for the ballot, it may well dampen his chances.

Chipper should be a sure-fire, first-ballot electee, unless I'm not aware of some PED taint.

Posey is a fabulous catcher, but will have trouble dislodging Berra, Campanella and Bench for the title of the greatest of all time, especially with the much-discussed shift to first base, and the fact that he never has had quite the HR power of the other three.

As to Kershaw, I'd never put money on pitchers as sure-bet HOF'ers until nearly the final tally is in. What they do best is get hurt and/or lose their effectiveness. Verlander, for example, pitched himself into the HOF in his twenties, and pitched himself back out (thus far) in his thirties. Another reason to be leery of Kershaw is the fact that much of his effectiveness is due to the trick/hitch delivery, and the fact that the ball seems to suddenly appear from behind his head. The latter worked for Jerod Weaver until his fastball dropped to mid-80's at best, and with respect to the former, hitters often get accustomed to freak deliveries. Kershaw has virtually the exact same stuff as Bumgarner: 93-95 mph fastball, good slider and curve. Both are very good pitchers, but IMHO, Kershaw to date has piled up the better stats due to the hitch/halt in his delivery, and the fact that he hides the ball better than the Giants' ace.

Just my two cents worth,

Larry

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by ls7plus

Just a few comments here. Pudge Rodriguez had an immense degree of difficulty explaining to Detroit newspaper writers with regard to the diet he had followed in losing 28 pounds one off-season while he was with the Tigers (and with the weight went his power). Just coincidentally of course, the weight loss occurred after steroid testing came in.

Chipper should be a sure-fire, first-ballot electee, unless I'm not aware of some PED taint.

Posey is a fabulous catcher, but will have trouble dislodging Berra, Campanella and Bench for the title of the greatest of all time, especially with the much-discussed shift to first base.

As to Kershaw, I'd never put money on pitchers as sure-bet HOF'ers until nearly the final tally is in. What they do best is get hurt and/or lose their effectiveness. Verlander, for example, pitched himself into the HOF in his twenties, and pitched himself back out (thus far) in his thirties. Another reason to be leery of Kershaw is the fact that much of his effectiveness is due to the trick/hitch delivery, and the fact that the ball seems to suddenly appear from behind his head. The latter worked for Jerod Weaver until his fastball dropped to mid-80's at best, and with respect to the former, hitters often get accustomed to freak deliveries. Kershaw has virtually the exact same stuff as Bumgarner: 93-95 mph fastball, good slider and curve. Both are very good pitchers, but IMHO, Kershaw to date has piled up the better stats due to the hitch/halt in his delivery, and the fact that he hides the ball better than the Giants' ace.

Just my two cents worth,

Larry

Larry they've had 8 years to get adjusted and he still has a 2.20 ERA.

[yanksfan09]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I would agree Halladay was better, but Guidry had some fabulous seasons and I don't think the difference is as dramatic as you say.

I am for the great talent over a shorter span than the compilers (not talking about Halladay), and Guidry would certainly qualify under that. However, I think I'm also a bit of a tough grader for the HOF at the same time and feel it has gotten watered down with a lot of the inductees... I would agree in giving Halladay the edge over Guidry, and that's coming from a Yankees fan. I think Guidry comes up a bit short in the same way Mattingly does. They were really great for a while but I still feel as though some thresholds need to still be met (Sub 200 wins for Guidry). I don't think the arbitrary stat thresholds are an exact science though and I need to look at everyone's career as a whole and compare them to their contemporaries to accurately assess a player.

I just loved how Halladay in the PED era and pitch count/innings limit era, led the league/ or was near top in innings and complete games all the time.

He also didn't play on some of the greatest Jays teams and still ended with an excellent winning percentage.

[arc2q]

More to the point, how does one accumulate 20,000 autographed cards?

This thread lost total credibility once the name Andruw Jones was thrown out. Is there a better example of a player who got paid and then gave up once he had a guaranteed big money contract?

I go by the Dale Murphy Rule. If a player is not more prominent and heralded in his own era than Murphy was in his, then his name shouldn't even be mentioned in HOF discussion. There are only a small handful of players active or recently retired who will make the Hall, and I'd definitely not promote any of the young crop of recent stars until they are 7-8 years in.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by arc2q

More to the point, how does one accumulate 20,000 autographed cards?

This thread lost total credibility once the name Andruw Jones was thrown out. Is there a better example of a player who got paid and then gave up once he had a guaranteed big money contract?

I go by the Dale Murphy Rule. If a player is not more prominent and heralded in his own era than Murphy was in his, then his name shouldn't even be mentioned in HOF discussion. There are only a small handful of players active or recently retired who will make the Hall, and I'd definitely not promote any of the young crop of recent stars until they are 7-8 years in.

Or Garvey. 6 200 hit seasons, 10 time all star, MVP, 4 gold gloves, 2600 hits. Not even close to making it. So yeah let's not hear about Andruw Jones shall we?

[HRBAKER]

More to the point, how does one accumulate 20,000 autographed cards?

It's not as hard as you think.

[Mrvintage]

How anyone that watches baseball questions Clayton Kershaw being a HOF player is beyond me.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Mrvintage

How anyone that watches baseball questions Clayton Kershaw being a HOF player is beyond me.

For the simple reason that it's too early in his career. Doc Gooden started off 119-53. Kershaw is 108-55.

[HRBAKER]

He certainly seems headed that way, but to Peter's point so did Gooden. Clayton doesn't seem to have the demons that Dwight did. If his career ended today - he would not get in, hence I don't regard him as a lock.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by HRBAKER

He certainly seems headed that way, but to Peter's point so did Gooden. Clayton doesn't seem to have the demons that Dwight did. If his career ended today - he would not get in, hence I don't regard him as a lock.

And if he went 90-95 for the rest of his career averaging 9 wins a season I'm not sure he would get in either. He's quite obviously on track, but he has to keep going.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by HRBAKER

He certainly seems headed that way, but to Peter's point so did Gooden. Clayton doesn't seem to have the demons that Dwight did. If his career ended today - he would not get in, hence I don't regard him as a lock.

As another example, Denny Mclain. 114-57 at age 25. And then....

[theshleps]

How to accumulate so many signed cards. Get spring training rosters for majors and minors and try to buy at least 4-5 cards of each guy or as many as available as well as all minor league team sets for that team for the previous years. Spend 3 weeks at mlb spring training and another 2 at minor league getting aautographs from 6am-6pm 7 days a week. Average day is 100-200 different signed cards. Do it for 10 years. You may end up with 30 or more signed cards (all different) of some guys that are willing signers- so for instance Josh Hamilton would gladly sign 6-8 cards at a time. get different ones each year and pretty soon you have 4--50 of him especially with all the variations- chrome, regular, etc. Go to minor league spring training that has 200 players armed with 1-3 cards of most of them.. Be a perfectionist/hoarder. Some folks have 100,000 signed and then the dealers who get many of the same card signed at a time to sell on ebay may have up to 500,000 signed in their inventory especially getting guys in their first minor league season when they gladly sign everything everyone has.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

Haven't seen Joey Votto mentioned yet. .955 career OPS, and he's having a nice bounce back year right now.

If we are mentioning PED guys, Ryan Braun has to be mentioned as a possibility if he keeps his numbers up.

I was about to come here and post the exact same thing. Literally. That's spooky.

Two of the most under-appreciated hitters in the game today. I picked Votto back up on my fantasy team two weeks ago, and he's exploded. He's an on base machine. Got 3 more walks last night, up to 106 for the season. Hitting .309 with a .446 OBP and a .956 OPS. He's a former MVP winner, 4 time All Star, and a former Gold Glove winner.

Braun's slowly coming back to where he was before the thumb injury. He's been hitting the ball really hard as of late (.333 in August with a .955 OPS), and as his BAbip continues to correct, he'll get closer to .300 again for the season.) He's won an MVP, finished 2nd and 3rd other times, has been an All Star six times, and has five Silver Sluggers.

Both are 31. They'll need about 5 more years of strong production before they should start consider warranting real consideration. Their career numbers thus far are excellent.



Their Hall of Fame metrics are intriguing as well.

Braun's



..and Votto's

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by theshleps

How to accumulate so many signed cards. Get spring training rosters for majors and minors and try to buy at least 4-5 cards of each guy or as many as available as well as all minor league team sets for that team for the previous years. Spend 3 weeks at mlb spring training and another 2 at minor league getting aautographs from 6am-6pm 7 days a week. Average day is 100-200 different signed cards. Do it for 10 years. You may end up with 30 or more signed cards (all different) of some guys that are willing signers- so for instance Josh Hamilton would gladly sign 6-8 cards at a time. get different ones each year and pretty soon you have 4--50 of him especially with all the variations- chrome, regular, etc. Go to minor league spring training that has 200 players armed with 1-3 cards of most of them.. Be a perfectionist/hoarder. Some folks have 100,000 signed and then the dealers who get many of the same card signed at a time to sell on ebay may have up to 500,000 signed in their inventory especially getting guys in their first minor league season when they gladly sign everything everyone has.

This^^ or you could do like most ebay sellers and buy a few different colored pens/markers a bunch of cards and start signing.

EDITED to add in no way shape or form is David Ortiz a HOFer or should ever be considered anything other than a guy that steroids gave him all his #'s. He couldn't even make the Twins everyday lineup without them.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Larry they've had 8 years to get adjusted and he still has a 2.20 ERA.

They have no problem adjusting to him by the 7th inning of playoff games.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

For the simple reason that it's too early in his career. Doc Gooden started off 119-53. Kershaw is 108-55.

Dwight Gooden had only one truly dominant season. He was outstanding as a rookie, don't get me wrong, but his ERA + was only a 137. He was 17-9 with a 2.60 ERA and 276 K's. He led the NL in K's, K/9 IP and WHIP. His second season was one for the ages, obviously. 24-4 with a 1.53 ERA, 268 K's. He led the NL in wins, ERA, K's, innings pitched, and complete games (16). He also had 8 shutouts en route to a 229 ERA +.

Clayton Kershaw has been the dominant pitcher in the NL, and baseball, for five season straight. And you could make the case it's really been six. In 2010, he was only 13-10, but had a 2.91 ERA and 202 K's as a 22 year old. His 133 ERA + was only 4 points off of Gooden's rookie season, which everybody went gaga over. When I show you his Hall of Fame metrics, Peter, he's already crossed some of those Hall thresholds, and he's only 27.

He has led the National League in:

Wins: twice, 2011 (21), and 2014 (21)
ERA: four times, 2011 (2.28), 2012 (2.53), 2013 (1.83), and 2014 (1.77).
Strikeouts: two times, 2011 (248), 2013 (232). He leads the NL with 222 in 117 IP this year.
WHIP: four times, 2011 (0.977), 2012 (1.023), 2013 (0.915), 2014 (0.857).
Hits per 9 IP: three times, 2009 (6.3), 2011 (6.7), 2012 (6.7).

He's won three Cy Young Awards, an MVP, and a Gold Glove. Going back to 2010, 183 starts, he's 95-42 with a 2.26 ERA with 1,382 K's in 1,276 IP.

And his control is improving, if you can believe that. He struck out 10.8 per 9 IP (best in the NL) last year, while walking only 32 batters, a league-best 7.71 K's per walk. This year he has 222 K's against 32 walks, a 6.91 K per walk ratio.

To put his greatness in perspective, since 1901, of all Major League pitchers with at least 1,500 innings pitched in their first eight seasons (there are 250 of them), only four--Walter Johnson, Mordecai Brown, and Lefty Grove--had a better ERA + than Kershaw's 153. Of those 250 pitchers, only Tom Seaver, Bert Blyleven and Johnson struck out more batters than Kershaw (and they had 2,167, 2,143 and 2,442 innings pitched compared to Kershaw's 1,555!) His strikeouts per 9 IP average of 9.6 is the third highest in baseball history behind Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez (just ahead of Nolan Ryan). And, it's rising. He's striking out 11.3/9 IP this year.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

For the simple reason that it's too early in his career. Doc Gooden started off 119-53. Kershaw is 108-55.

I absolutely agree it's too early in his career to call him a Hall of Famer. We don't know what goes on in his private life, but I don't see him going the direction of Gooden or McClain. If he stays healthy, he'll have a few more dominant seasons comparable to what he's had the last five...really six, if you look at some of the metrics. Figure that he's going to have 150 wins, and about 2,200 strikeouts by age 30. Considering how great he's been, it's downright criminal he's not won more. 10 wins this year? 14 in 2012? 16 in 2013 (with a 1.83 ERA across 33 starts)?

By the way, here are his Hall of Fame metrics. Pretty eye popping.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by rats60

They have no problem adjusting to him by the 7th inning of playoff games.

Yeah two years in a row now, right?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by the 'stache

I absolutely agree it's too early in his career to call him a Hall of Famer. We don't know what goes on in his private life, but I don't see him going the direction of Gooden or McClain. If he stays healthy, he'll have a few more dominant seasons comparable to what he's had the last five...really six, if you look at some of the metrics. Figure that he's going to have 150 wins, and about 2,200 strikeouts by age 30. Considering how great he's been, it's downright criminal he's not won more. 10 wins this year? 14 in 2012? 16 in 2013 (with a 1.83 ERA across 33 starts)?

By the way, here are his Hall of Fame metrics. Pretty eye popping.

I absolutely agree, I think it's highly likely he continues on course and he certainly seems to be stable personally. My only point has been that sh*t happens and that things can fall apart for guys who look like locks.

[the 'stache]

Kershaw's 45.2 WAR through his first eight season is the 15th highest by any pitcher going back to 1901. Figure he has 7 or 8 more starts this season based on games remaining, and the Dodger rotation. He has a 5.5 WAR through 23 starts, so, if his production is constant, figure another 1.8-2.0 WAR this season. That puts him right behind Christy Mathewson's 47.7 WAR through his first eight seasons for thirteenth-best ever. Now, it's hard to compare different eras, and I'm certainly not equating Kershaw to Mathewson--because I want to see how Kershaw's career finishes before I even think of putting him anywhere near arguably the best pitcher to ever play the game (Matty is on my short list of five-Walter Johnson, Cy Young, Greg Maddux being three of the other four for sure. Then I look at a group including Roger Clemens, Bob Gibson, Bob Feller, Lefty Grove, Sandy Koufax, Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, Tom Seaver, Steve Carlton, Warren Spahn, and Grover Cleveland Alexander)....as you alluded to, Peter, I also need to see Kershaw bring some of that dominance to the post season, because, quick glance, all of those other names I mentioned won at least one World Series in their careers (if it was played). If Walter Johnson could win one on that horrible Senators team, then Kershaw has no excuses. If he can't win at least one ring on a team that spends $250 million a year on payroll, and has another ace in Zack Greinke, my opinion of him will dip.

BUT, I can compare their careers to this point, and I feel pretty safe in saying we're witnessing one of the all-time greats right now. I don't see Kershaw having a Dwight Gooden or Denny McClain downfall. I hope that he doesn't have an essentially career-ending injury, like a J.R. Richard, or Herb Score. What happens going forward we'll find out in time. But Kershaw has been absolutely dominant.

And this little beauty rests in my safe deposit box, going up in value:

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I absolutely agree, I think it's highly likely he continues on course and he certainly seems to be stable personally. My only point has been that sh*t happens and that things can fall apart for guys who look like locks.

Ain't that the truth, unfortunately?

I've always wondered what would have happened to the Houston Astros if J.R. Richard hadn't had that blood clot. How great could their starters have been in 1981? The Braves rotation of the early to late 90s is often mentioned as the best in the modern era-in 1993 they had Tom Glavine (22-6), Greg Maddux (20-10), Steve Avery (18-6), and John Smoltz (15-11), and in 1998 they had Glavine (20-6), Maddux (18-9), Smoltz (17-3), Kevin Milwood (17-8) and Denny Neagle (16-11). Of course, the 1971 Baltimore Orioles had four 20 game winners in Dave McNally (21-5), Pat Dobson (20-8), Mike Cuellar (20-9) and Hall of Famer Jim Palmer (20-9).

But look at what the Astros could have put out there in the mid 80s.

In 1980, J.R. Richard started 17 games before collapsing during a pre game warm up. That stroke ended his career. He'd been 10-4 with a 1.90 ERA, 119 K's in 113 IP, and a 174 ERA +. His WHIP was a career-best 0.924. He'd gone 36-24 with a 2.90 ERA and 616 K's the prior two seasons. He was clearly one of the most dominant pitchers in the game, and was only 30. And, to that point, he'd only pitched 1,600 career innings. He hadn't worked over 100 innings in a season until 1975, when he first went over 200 IP. The Astros also still had Nolan Ryan, who would have a spectacular 1981 strike-shortened season. He was 11-5 with a league-leading 1.69 ERA, 140 K's in 149 IP, and an amazing 2 home runs allowed. His ERA + was a whopping 195, the best of his Hall of Fame career. The Astros also had Joe Niekro, who was 4th in the National League Cy Young Award for the 1980 season. He was 20-12 with a 3.55 ERA, and 127 K's. In 1981, he was only 9-9, but he had a 2.82 ERA, and a 1.187 WHIP, which is very good. In 1982, he would go 17-12 with a 2.47 ERA, and a 1.067 WHIP. Niekro would remain in Houston until late 1985, when he went to the Yankees.

But what if Richard's career had continued? The Astros would feature Richard, Ryan, Niekro...and in 1983, they would be joined by Mike Scott. Scott, of course, won the Cy Young in 1986 for the Astros, going 18-10 with a 2.22 ERA, and 306 K's. Nolan Ryan, the ageless wonder, was still a great pitcher. In 1986, he struck out 194 batters. The next four seasons, he would lead the league in K's, with 270 and 228 in 1987 and 1988 with the Astros, and 301 and 232 in 1989 and 1990 with the Rangers. In 1986, the Astros would have featured three pitchers who'd thrown over 300 strike outs in a season as their top 3, Bob Knepper, who won 17 games in 1986 as their #4, and Jim Deshaies as their #5. Deshaies went 12-5 with a 3.25 ERA that year.

The Astros went 96-66 in 1986 without Richard. The Astros lost to the eventual World Champions, the New York Mets, in the NLCS. The Mets won 108 games that year. Could Richard have made the difference?

[h2oya311]

breaks my heart to this day that the 'Stros lost in '86 to the Mets...That was an AWESOME series (from the perspective of an impressionable 9-year old)!

[ls7plus]

As stated elsewhere, what pitchers do best is get hurt or lose their fastballs, most often right after someone signs them to a very large contract. We have no idea if Kershaw is going to turn out any better than say, Justin Verlander, who pitched himself into the Hall in his 20's and thus far (with the exception of 7 of his last 8 starts--it appears that he is learning the importance of command with his fastball, a better slider to get righties out with,, and generally how to pitch, rather than just be a power thrower, something he's never had to do before this), out of it in his 30's. See in this vein also Sudden Sam McDowell, who was virtually unhitable for a large portion of the '60's, as well as Gooden, who was all the rage in the collecting circles of the '80's and even into the very early '90's.
Let us also not forget Kerry Wood, who before hurting himself, was about as dominant as they come. On the other hand, some guys just enjoy shooting craps!

Great discussion,

Larry

[Mrvintage]

I believe with the way baseball has changed that the day of 300 game winners is over. Kershaw has been the most dominant pitcher in baseball for a 5-6 year stretch and counting. Is he going to win 511 games or throw 25-30 complete games a year?? Of course not but neither is anyone else. In my opinion if Kershaw retired at the end of this season he would be a HOFer. His stretch of greatness has been just as impressive as Koufax in my opinion and nobody questions him being a HOFer.