Discussion: Good thing or bad thing for the hobby if a hoard of T206 Wagners is found

[steve B]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

There hasn't been a Wagner auctioned in awhile, and if one went on the block today I think it not only would get spirited bidding, a couple of hopeful collectors would be willing to place an extra bid or two to finally nab one.

But with 45 on the block, no need to overpay. Just stay in the game until you eventually get one for a fair price. So short term I think the card would take maybe a 20% hit. But ultimately they would all be purchased for strong prices.

No bargains, but patience would prove an asset.

To me this seems like what would happen. The number of people who want and can afford a Wagner would still be more than the number of copies. So sure, a temporary hit, with things eventually settling back to right about where they are now.

A while ago, I started thinking about what makes the "special" items in any hobby special. And what I realized is that it's not just rarity. For a brief time I actually knew how many cards I had that were probably less available than a Wagner. I don't even try anymore. I'd guess 40 or more, not counting modern serial numbered stuff or stuff from one particular hobby where nearly every item is less available or roughly the same. The whole pile wouldn't even make for a downpayment on a Wagner.

The four things that I believe are most critical for something to get into the really high prices?

the subject has to be both extremely popular AND something that represents the era to someone who isn't a collector. (Wagner, Mantle, the early airmail plane.. )

The item has to be uncommon, but not so uncommon that people can't even fantasize about finding one somewhere. Or about buying one if they have enough. I believe the real sweet spot is around 50-150 known. The Mantle breaks the pattern there as it's a fairly common card.

The item has to fit a popular collecting area, or better still several at once.
HOF, popular set, something like that.

And the most important, there's got to be a great story to it, true or not.
Wagner got the card pulled because of tobacco
Mantle is rare because a bunch of high numbers got dumped in the ocean
The upside down airplane was discovered on the first day of sale and the buyer refused when the PO clerk wanted the sheet back

Without all of those things, stuff can get expensive, but won't usually be the top item in a hobby expensive. Or for hobbies with a lot of very valuable stuff say top 25 or 50.

Even a large find won't usually put any sort of permanent dent in the price of those items.

[orly57]

Originally Posted by steve B

To me this seems like what would happen. The number of people who want and can afford a Wagner would still be more than the number of copies. So sure, a temporary hit, with things eventually settling back to right about where they are now.

A while ago, I started thinking about what makes the "special" items in any hobby special. And what I realized is that it's not just rarity. For a brief time I actually knew how many cards I had that were probably less available than a Wagner. I don't even try anymore. I'd guess 40 or more, not counting modern serial numbered stuff or stuff from one particular hobby where nearly every item is less available or roughly the same. The whole pile wouldn't even make for a downpayment on a Wagner.

The four things that I believe are most critical for something to get into the really high prices?

the subject has to be both extremely popular AND something that represents the era to someone who isn't a collector. (Wagner, Mantle, the early airmail plane.. )

The item has to be uncommon, but not so uncommon that people can't even fantasize about finding one somewhere. Or about buying one if they have enough. I believe the real sweet spot is around 50-150 known. The Mantle breaks the pattern there as it's a fairly common card.

The item has to fit a popular collecting area, or better still several at once.
HOF, popular set, something like that.

And the most important, there's got to be a great story to it, true or not.
Wagner got the card pulled because of tobacco
Mantle is rare because a bunch of high numbers got dumped in the ocean
The upside down airplane was discovered on the first day of sale and the buyer refused when the PO clerk wanted the sheet back

Without all of those things, stuff can get expensive, but won't usually be the top item in a hobby expensive. Or for hobbies with a lot of very valuable stuff say top 25 or 50.

Even a large find won't usually put any sort of permanent dent in the price of those items.

Great post, but I would add that it needs to come from a popular set. T206 is the king of the hill. Were the Wagner from any other set, it wouldn't be nearly as valuable. Same with the Cobb-back (though some debate whether or not it's a t206).
I would also add that mantle is far from rare even if the ocean dumping story is true. There are easily 100 times more mantles than t206 Wagners. Even if the Wagner pop doubles there would be under 100 compared to thousands of Mantles. A find of this magnitude would just give more wealthy guys a chance to own one. They will still have to pay strong.

[steve B]

I down played the popular set thing, mostly because it can become a chicken /egg discussion. Would T206 be popular without the Wagner? 52 Topps without the Mantle? That's a much tougher question.
One thing that's interesting, is that the entire hobby would be different without the Wagner, but I believe it wouldn't be much different without the Mantle.

The Mantle is an outlier, I have a hard time coming up with any other collectible that sells in that sort of price range that's as readily available.