Collectibles Markets vs Economy - Why does it have to be this way?

[KCRfan1]

Someone mentioned earlier about consumers putting everyday goods and services on credit cards.

This is exactly what is happening for most households. Credit card debt is at an all-time high, over a trillion dollars. To add, the spent credit ( used credit ) and available credit is minimal at this point. People have maxed their cards for the most part.

The number of people taking hardship withdrawals, loans, against their 401k is steadily growing.

How this all gets paid back is another story. I don't see it happening though.

This is just a tip of a big iceberg though as many things are impacting our economy. Some of which are obvious, yet the true expense has not manifested itself.

As mentioned previously, the collectors market is driven by discretionary income.

Unless the collectible is unique or an early great of the game, I do not see how present value is maintained for most items. Plenty of room and time for the common collectible to decline.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by packs

I didn't mention anything about what I was doing to achieve my goal. Only that I had them and they don't see outrageous or even that much different than society has ever had. However, they seem to be much harder to get.

Do you not agree? the birthrate has fallen 23% in the last 15 years. The number of US households from 2010 to 2020 was the smallest gain in any decade between 1950 and 2010.

How old are you? I have seen this big jump in prices 3 times that I remember.

The birth rate has fallen because overall smart people are having way less kids. You don't see many doctors, lawyers, or other younger professionals with big families. Unfortunately if you go to the poor areas they are still breeding like rabbits. That is a major part of most problems.

[Exhibitman]

Nicolo, M2 has been contracting since February 2022 (per St. Louis Fed) and is back down to the level it was in Q2 2021. That is the result of the end of quantitative easing (QE4). I think you're spot-on about the still great returns on cards over 5+ years. Example: a PSA 8 1972 Topps Julius Erving was a $800-$1,000 card before the run, peaked at $9,000, fell to $3,000-$4.000 pretty quickly, and has steadily declined to about $1,800-$2,000 today. That's a heck of a return even if you kept the card and missed the peak: if you had to sell today you would have nothing to bitch about, really. But if you chased the wave and purchased it for $5K in the run-up and didn't take profits when you ran a bit more, pobrecito. I did real well selling into the rise but I missed some peaks and also bought a few stupidly inflated vintage cards, but at least they are big names, so I am not unhappy holding them for a while and waiting for the market to turn.

The card market in general starting inflating in 2020, really took off during the pandemic, and peaked last year; we have been in a partial downturn ever since, sector by sector. Modern is f****d; that bubble has burst and people are getting really pissed off. Which means it is too early to buy. We still need to get through the rest of the grief cycle (Denial. Anger. Bargaining. Depression. Acceptance) and get the capitulation sales under way. Then it is time to pick over the carcasses. I plan to shop for some MJ cards for the PC. I see an 87 Fleer in my future; I really like that card aesthetically speaking, just not at the current prices.

In terms of old cards, the downturn spread to postwar vintage first. Prewar vintage has started cracking in some of the mainstream issues. Still way above where it was before this started. Ryan has one (well, many) thing(s) right about cards: the biggest and best names hold value the best.

it's also really, really hard to generalize about such a diverse constellation of items that comprise the "Hobby". We are about to see an eye-popping price on that 1914 Ruth. Doesn't mean squatdiddly for the value of my 1961 Golden Press Ruth, but if someone thinks it does, my door is open. It is cool to see a card like the 1914 sell for the price of art, though. And it's a schedule card.

[brunswickreeves]

Originally Posted by KCRfan1

Someone mentioned earlier about consumers putting everyday goods and services on credit cards.

This is exactly what is happening for most households. Credit card debt is at an all-time high, over a trillion dollars. To add, the spent credit ( used credit ) and available credit is minimal at this point. People have maxed their cards for the most part.

The number of people taking hardship withdrawals, loans, against their 401k is steadily growing.

How this all gets paid back is another story. I don't see it happening though.

This is just a tip of a big iceberg though as many things are impacting our economy. Some of which are obvious, yet the true expense has not manifested itself.

As mentioned previously, the collectors market is driven by discretionary income.

Unless the collectible is unique or an early great of the game, I do not see how present value is maintained for most items. Plenty of room and time for the common collectible to decline.

‘When the tide goes out you’ll see who’s been swimming with no bathing suit.’ -Buffet (Warren, not Jimmy-rest his soul).

[packs]

Originally Posted by bnorth

How old are you? I have seen this big jump in prices 3 times that I remember.

The birth rate has fallen because overall smart people are having way less kids. You don't see many doctors, lawyers, or other younger professionals with big families. Unfortunately if you go to the poor areas they are still breeding like rabbits. That is a major part of most problems.

I know people with big families and I know people with small families or no family, but none of them have mentioned their degrees when discussing why they had children or didn't.

People with good jobs are still finding it just as hard to buy a house or afford to live where they work:

https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/...s-18164328.php

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by brunswickreeves

Amazing analysis and insights here as always. Net54 truly makes me more informed.

Agreed! When people avoid the jabs at politicians and political parties they personally don't like, these threads are quite interesting and informative.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by packs

What does overall smart people mean though? I know people with big families and I know people with small families or no family, but none of them have mentioned their degrees when discussing why they had children or didn't.

Google is your friend since the doctors, lawyers, and other professionals was not enough info. Yes I also know stupid people with no kids and very smart people with several. That does not change the overall picture.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by bobbyw8469

I can't add anything to this conversation without someone making it political. So I won't say anything. However, something HAS to change.

While some may try to politicize it, it's not really a partisan issue. It wouldn't matter which party is in charge. This is a global issue. Nearly every country is experiencing significant inflation right now. We're actually doing much better than the entire western world with respect to inflation.

[packs]

I was hoping you might expand on what you’re saying. Your opinion is that smart people aren’t having children but why? Is it because it’s prohibitively expensive and they recognize that? Or some other reason?

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by bnorth

Google is your friend since the doctors, lawyers, and other professionals was not enough info. Yes I also know stupid people with no kids and very smart people with several. That does not change the overall picture.

What's Yiddish for "birth control"? Grad school My landsmann get it.

My wife and I decided to limit our kids to 1 because of the cost of raising them. We figured on her staying home and with one we could do that and give her everything we wanted for her, including grad school, but with more, she either had to work or it was three hots and cot and take some loans for college. Wasn't an appealing plan. My daughter ended up graduating an Ivy with an advanced degree and has an enviable first job (better beni's than I ever dreamed of...and free snacks and beer in their lounge).

[raulus]

Originally Posted by packs

I didn't mention anything about what I was doing to achieve my goal. Only that I had them and they don't seem outrageous or even that much different than society has ever had. However, they seem to be much harder to get.

Do you not agree? the birthrate has fallen 23% in the last 15 years. The number of US households from 2010 to 2020 was the smallest gain in any decade between 1950 and 2010.

The idea that if you don't have what you want you aren't working hard enough is also outdated. This isn't a meritocracy and there's no such thing as working harder than everyone else to achieve more. I think it's much more likely that many people will work themselves to death and not gain very much in the process.

Time to fire up the class wars and dig in a bit. With any luck, this will turn into a shouting match that devolves into ad hominem attacks and denials of our common humanity.

If you're struggling to acquire the necessities of life, then I'd recommend cutting back on buying cardboard.

If you're struggling to make important financial investments like buying a house or sending your kid to school, then I'd also recommend cutting back on buying cardboard.

I do think that the current home buying market is incredibly difficult, and I wouldn't want to buy a house in this market. If you're in the market to buy a house but find that it's not currently attainable, and if you want my advice, which isn't worth much, then my advice would be to continue to save for your down payment and wait for the right opportunity. Certainly that's what we did from 2002 to 2008 while living in the SF Bay Area, which was a crazy housing market in its own way. A lot of our friends took out stupid loans they couldn't afford simply because the bank would give it to them. We waited and saved, until the time was right to pull the trigger.

I also think that when it comes to education, not everyone needs to go to college. There are plenty of really great jobs in the trades to be had without a college degree. And if your kids do go to college, then make sure to be wise about that investment. Go to a school that doesn't cost an arm and a leg to attend. If necessary, then spend a year or two at a community college to accumulate GE credits. Whatever you do, study in a field that is marketable. If you're expecting everything to turn out peachy by dropping $70k per year on an expensive private school while studying in a field where you are unlikely to ever make more than $50k per year, then you should probably reevaluate your strategy.

I do think that in general, we have to be willing to work hard and sacrifice for the nicer things in life, including that house or that education. Usually that means being willing to make some important decisions about what we really want out of life, and what we can sacrifice today in order to achieve those goals.

I can't speak for anyone else, but I can tell you that we made a lot of sacrifices for a very long time to accomplish all of the things that you mention. I toiled long, long hours for over a decade to work my way up in my organization. Others bailed for an easier job and a quick bump to get 20% higher pay, while I stuck it out and kept my eye on the ultimate prize.

We lived in a 2-bedroom apartment with 3 kids so that we could save for a down payment on our house. I commuted 1.5 hours each way every day so that we could save on rent. We watched every penny, drove old beater cars, and denied ourselves a tremendous amount of potential stuff so that we could save for our kids' educations. Most of our peers around us were living the good life, buying everything they saw and going on fancy vacations, but we lived well beneath our means to save for the future.

To take it a step further, when we were ready to buy, we moved to a less expensive part of the country so that we could actually buy a house. Our kids are going to less expensive universities so that they don't have to take out gigantic student loans that will loom over them for decades to come like a veritable sword of Damocles. On that note, my son declined admittance to Stanford just last year, because spending $300k on an undergraduate degree didn't make much sense from a cost/benefit perspective.

I don't buy the doom and gloom and the talk that it's impossible to achieve our dreams. I do absolutely find that it is not easy, and requires a lot of work and sacrifices for an extended period of time that the average American is loath to actually undertake and really work in a dedicated fashion to accomplish.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Nicolo, M2 has been contracting since February 2022 (per St. Louis Fed) and is back down to the level it was in Q2 2021. That is the result of the end of quantitative easing (QE4).

And that's why inflation is down a lot the last couple of months, compared to 12-24 months ago.

There's also the issue that inflation has lags that are long and variable. So changes in M2 don't translate into immediate changes in inflation rates.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by raulus

Time to fire up the class wars and dig in a bit. With any luck, this will turn into a shouting match that devolves into ad hominem attacks and denials of our common humanity.

If you're struggling to acquire the necessities of life, then I'd recommend cutting back on buying cardboard.

If you're struggling to make important financial investments like buying a house or sending your kid to school, then I'd also recommend cutting back on buying cardboard.

I do think that the current home buying market is incredibly difficult, and I wouldn't want to buy a house in this market. If you're in the market to buy a house but find that it's not currently attainable, and if you want my advice, which isn't worth much, then my advice would be to continue to save for your down payment and wait for the right opportunity. Certainly that's what we did from 2002 to 2008 while living in the SF Bay Area, which was a crazy housing market in its own way. A lot of our friends took out stupid loans they couldn't afford simply because the bank would give it to them. We waited and saved, until the time was right to pull the trigger.

I also think that when it comes to education, not everyone needs to go to college. There are plenty of really great jobs in the trades to be had without a college degree. And if your kids do go to college, then make sure to be wise about that investment. Go to a school that doesn't cost an arm and a leg to attend. If necessary, then spend a year or two at a community college to accumulate GE credits. Whatever you do, study in a field that is marketable. If you're expecting everything to turn out peachy by dropping $70k per year on an expensive private school while studying in a field where you are unlikely to ever make more than $50k per year, then you should probably reevaluate your strategy.

I do think that in general, we have to be willing to work hard and sacrifice for the nicer things in life, including that house or that education. Usually that means being willing to make some important decisions about what we really want out of life, and what we can sacrifice today in order to achieve those goals.

I can't speak for anyone else, but I can tell you that we made a lot of sacrifices for a very long time to accomplish all of the things that you mention. I toiled long, long hours for over a decade to work my way up in my organization. Others bailed for an easier job and a quick bump to get 20% higher pay, while I stuck it out and kept my eye on the ultimate prize.

We lived in a 2-bedroom apartment with 3 kids so that we could save for a down payment on our house. I commuted 1.5 hours each way every day so that we could save on rent. We watched every penny, drove old beater cars, and denied ourselves a tremendous amount of potential stuff so that we could save for our kids' educations. Most of our peers around us were living the good life, buying everything they saw and going on fancy vacations, but we lived well beneath our means to save for the future.

To take it a step further, when we were ready to buy, we moved to a less expensive part of the country so that we could actually buy a house. Our kids are going to less expensive universities so that they don't have to take out gigantic student loans that will loom over them for decades to come like a veritable sword of Damocles. On that note, my son declined admittance to Stanford just last year, because spending $300k on an undergraduate degree didn't make much sense from a cost/benefit perspective.

I don't buy the doom and gloom and the talk that it's impossible to achieve our dreams. I do absolutely find that it is not easy, and requires a lot of work and sacrifices for an extended period of time that the average American is loath to actually undertake and really work in a dedicated fashion to accomplish.

I sense we are at rather opposite ends of the spectrum politically, yet I find myself in near complete agreement with your post. Many Americans are magical thinkers: they believe money will find them rather than understanding that choices and sacrifices are still necessary components of life, even in the most prosperous nation the world has ever seen. I was very, very lucky in that respect. As a non-neurotypical person, I never understood or gave a darn about status, branding, rules of polite society, feelings (as many here can tell) etc. A car is transport, not a statement, so I buy good ones and drive them into the ground. A house is where you fart, not a showplace, so it has to be comfortable, not big, and not filled with crap I then have to buy, maintain, clean and insure. And so on. My wife shared my values, so it worked out great. We planned for my daughter's college and grad school (well, we got blindsided a bit when she wanted medical school, but she got over that after dealing with patients in a clinical setting as a volunteer; sick people suck), and we planned for our retirement and declines. We don't get the elaborate vacations: We spent that money for a long-term care policy, so we would not be broken by living expenses at the end of life.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by raulus

To respond to your question about why it has to be this way, while economists love to debate what drives inflation, I’m a big believer in M2 - when the supply of money goes up without a corresponding shift in the number of available goods, then prices will rise. And to avoid politics behind why M2 increased, I’ll leave it at that.

I'm with you on that. M2 is a manipulable inflationary pressure and a leading indicator. It certainly had a significant effect on this hobby. More than most people realize. The boom wasn't only because people were stuck inside. Although the causes for its increases are multi faceted. Not being able to travel or go out and blow our money had a lot to do with it too. It wasn't entirely the result of policy decisions, though they certainly contributed significantly.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I sense we are at rather opposite ends of the spectrum politically, yet I find myself in near complete agreement with your post.

Apologies if this is viewed as political...but

I would posit that it's theoretically impossible to be at the opposite end of the political spectrum from me. Because I'm about as middle as they come these days. Unless, of course, there's something that is the opposite of the middle!

I suppose that's a rather self-imposed identification, and you may beg to differ, but I'll cling to it anyway.

[bcbgcbrcb]

I have no college degree, 30 years of retail experience and a heart that operates at about 50% capacity. I would love to have $500-$700 monthly income coming in. Since 2017, I have collected a grand total of $1,200 from employment. That's in nearly 7 years!!! Maybe now, some here can see and begin to understand where I am coming from not only with the hobby these days but the U.S. economy in general. And, yeah, I know, there is always somebody else worse off than you are.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by bcbgcbrcb

I have no college degree, 30 years of retail experience and a heart that operates at about 50% capacity. I would love to have $500-$700 monthly income coming in. Since 2017, I have collected a grand total of $1,200 from employment. That's in nearly 7 years!!! Maybe now, some here can see and begin to understand where I am coming from not only with the hobby these days but the U.S. economy in general. And, yeah, I know, there is always somebody else worse off than you are.

Apologies if this is lacking in empathy, but I’m not sure I understand where the economy makes a big difference. I promise I’m not the world’s largest jerk, even if some may beg to differ based on this post.

But if inflation is 2% or 20%, it seems like you’re in an incredibly impossible situation either way.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by raulus

Apologies if this is viewed as political...but

I would posit that it's theoretically impossible to be at the opposite end of the political spectrum from me. Because I'm about as middle as they come these days. Unless, of course, there's something that is the opposite of the middle!

I suppose that's a rather self-imposed identification, and you may beg to differ, but I'll cling to it anyway.

Oh, there certainly is....

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by bcbgcbrcb

Ground beef was $7.99 two years ago, now $11.99. Bag of chips was $3.49 two years ago, today $5.29. 2L bottle of Coke was $2.75 two years ago, today $3.75. Box of cereal was $4.99, today $6.79. I could keep going on and on and on. EVERYTHING is indeed up 30-40% over the past two years. Where in history have we seen price increases at this rate? Of course, let's blame it all on COVID like everything else. While sports cards are average DOWN 30-40% over the past two years. At the start of 2021, gas was $1.99/gal., been over $3.00/gl. since the start of 2022.

Thank you for posting real time, boots on the ground numbers. Others in the arm chairs sitting back quoting figures the see on TV are in the dark. Electricity rates are double what they were as well. Gone from .07 khw to .15 khw and up to .25 during peak summer hours

[jingram058]

If you're struggling now to make ends meet, and you're less than 34 years old, and in good health, I recommend the service. Doesn't matter which one. If you simply do as you're told, and don't be a problem child, you'll advance steadily in rank, you and your family will have health care, and if you live within your means, you will most certainly save money. You will have your education paid for. If you choose to leave, you have the GI Bill, education and home loans guaranteed with no money down. If you stay, you can retire at 20 years with 50% your base pay. 2.5% for each year past 20 for a max of 75% at 30 years. Where are you ever going to find a retirement plan like that, realistically? If you stay, when you retire you have health care paid for the rest of your life, either TriCare or VA. You can use either one. You will be young enough to have a 2nd career, and employers will welcome you with open arms due to your acquired experience and skill. You will most certainly have the wherewithal to participate in "the hobby" or any other hobby, frankly, should you desire to do so.

I did 26 years in the Navy. I started out a boot E-1, seaman recruit, and wound up an O-4 Lieutenant Commander. I have a beautiful house with a pool in Florida. In the Navy I was able to acquire such things as a Babe Ruth signed ball (Gehrig and Cobb, too), a 1933 Goudey Ruth and Gehrig, lots of other good cards too, all kinds of working antique radios, and anything else I really ever truly wanted. I'm able to take trips and vacations whenever I feel like it. I use the VA for my health care; my wife uses TriCare. Our cars are paid for.

I found out early on that life is what you make it. If you're in an awful situation, one way to turn it around is in the service.

[bcbgcbrcb]

Ok, this is my last post here regarding this subject. You guys can continue to have at it if you want. Nothing positive is going to come out of this for me. This is really just my social media outlet as I don't participate on FB, IG or anything else. Everybody has to get their frustrations out to the world somewhere, I guess. My apologies, starting this thread was not the best way of handling my anger.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by bcbgcbrcb

Ok, this is my last post here regarding this subject. You guys can continue to have at it if you want. Nothing positive is going to come out of this for me. This is really just my social media outlet as I don't participate on FB, IG or anything else. Everybody has to get their frustrations out to the world somewhere, I guess. My apologies, starting this thread was not the best way of handling my anger.

Rants are always welcome!

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

Thank you for posting real time, boots on the ground numbers. Others in the arm chairs sitting back quoting figures the see on TV are in the dark. Electricity rates are double what they were as well. Gone from .07 khw to .15 khw and up to .25 during peak summer hours

We are lucky in the electricity part here. It has been .09 to .11 here since the 80s that I have been paying a bill. It still doesn't stop the locals from saying how much the price of electricity has gone up by complaining constantly when in reality it hasn't.

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by raulus

Rants are always welcome!

as is projecting and redirected anger!

Still waiting for some to ADMIT (again) they sent their PPP money ON CARDS!

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by bnorth

We are lucky in the electricity part here. It has been .09 to .11 here since the 80s that I have been paying a bill. It still doesn't stop the locals from saying how much the price of electricity has gone up by complaining constantly when in reality it hasn't.

HA! Amazing isnt it? My bill Only 20% of other similar homes since I am just mindful about usage. The 7 cents on 34 KWH per MONTH wont kill me, but eventually it will hurt others.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

Thank you for posting real time, boots on the ground numbers. Others in the arm chairs sitting back quoting figures the see on TV are in the dark. Electricity rates are double what they were as well. Gone from .07 khw to .15 khw and up to .25 during peak summer hours

Yeah anecdotal numbers are much better than aggregated figures....

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

as is projecting and redirected anger!

Still waiting for some to ADMIT (again) they sent their PPP money ON CARDS!

Everyone needs a "Rookie" Mickey Mantle in their collection. I closed my business way before Covid so I didn't have that opportunity. Honestly I might have took the cash. Why not they were handing that stuff out like candy on Halloween.

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by bnorth

Everyone needs a "Rookie" Mickey Mantle in their collection. I closed my business way before Covid so I didn't have that opportunity. Honestly I might have took the cash. Why not they were handing that stuff out like candy on Halloween.

HA! I knew it, POS edited his post in that thread I believe! SEE PM

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

Yeah anecdotal numbers are much better than aggregated figures....

You bill likely doubled

Maybe I misinterpreted your comment.

People in my neighborhood with pool heaters and lights on all day said their bills WERE 600-1k per month, I havent checked in recently

[Yoda]

Originally Posted by jingram058

If you're struggling now to make ends meet, and you're less than 34 years old, and in good health, I recommend the service. Doesn't matter which one. If you simply do as you're told, and don't be a problem child, you'll advance steadily in rank, you and your family will have health care, and if you live within your means, you will most certainly save money. You will have your education paid for. If you choose to leave, you have the GI Bill, education and home loans guaranteed with no money down. If you stay, you can retire at 20 years with 50% your base pay. 2.5% for each year past 20 for a max of 75% at 30 years. Where are you ever going to find a retirement plan like that, realistically? If you stay, when you retire you have health care paid for the rest of your life, either TriCare or VA. You can use either one. You will be young enough to have a 2nd career, and employers will welcome you with open arms due to your acquired experience and skill. You will most certainly have the wherewithal to participate in "the hobby" or any other hobby, frankly, should you desire to do so.

I did 26 years in the Navy. I started out a boot E-1, seaman recruit, and wound up an O-4 Lieutenant Commander. I have a beautiful house with a pool in Florida. In the Navy I was able to acquire such things as a Babe Ruth signed ball (Gehrig and Cobb, too), a 1933 Goudey Ruth and Gehrig, lots of other good cards too, all kinds of working antique radios, and anything else I really ever truly wanted. I'm able to take trips and vacations whenever I feel like it. I use the VA for my health care; my wife uses TriCare. Our cars are paid for.

I found out early on that life is what you make it. If you're in an awful situation, one way to turn it around is in the service.

James, when are you going to open your own Naval Recruiting Station? Makes me want to enlist, but, hell, I already did that and served with the Naval Security Group (CT) for 3 years in Rota, Spain, which was a terrific duty station, then stayed with the Reserves for several years. Ended up as an E6, just missed CPO. As you know, it is the Chiefs who run the Navy.
You make a strong, valid case for considering a military career.

[gunboat82]

Originally Posted by bcbgcbrcb

Ground beef was $7.99 two years ago, now $11.99. Bag of chips was $3.49 two years ago, today $5.29. 2L bottle of Coke was $2.75 two years ago, today $3.75. Box of cereal was $4.99, today $6.79. I could keep going on and on and on. EVERYTHING is indeed up 30-40% over the past two years. Where in history have we seen price increases at this rate? Of course, let's blame it all on COVID like everything else. While sports cards are average DOWN 30-40% over the past two years. At the start of 2021, gas was $1.99/gal., been over $3.00/gl. since the start of 2022.

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

Thank you for posting real time, boots on the ground numbers. Others in the arm chairs sitting back quoting figures the see on TV are in the dark. Electricity rates are double what they were as well. Gone from .07 khw to .15 khw and up to .25 during peak summer hours

"Boots on the ground" numbers where? The organic section of a Whole Foods on Oahu?

Yes, prices are generally up on groceries and other essentials.
Yes, the Consumer Price Index fails to account for the whole picture.
No, anecdotal references to $11.99/lb. ground beef do not provide a boots-on-the-ground glimpse into the state of the economy.

I live in Massachusetts, which is often the butt of jokes about being overpriced. Just last week, I purchased $3.99/lb. ground beef at Roche Bros., a chain that is often the butt of jokes for being overpriced. The most I've paid anywhere since COVID is $5.99/lb. And the last time I saw a $3.75 2L bottle of Coke was at a mom-and-pop convenience store with low inventory and low turnover.

Perhaps Massachusetts grocery stores have tapped into some supply-chain mojo that allows them to sell hamburger for 50-67% less than the rest of the country pays. But my takeaway is that we shouldn't use what one person reportedly pays for hamburger or Coke as a barometer for the entire national economy.

I'm too young to remember 10% mortgage rates, but I'm old enough to remember mid-2008, when gas prices were over $4.00/gallon after nearly doubling over a three-year span. 15 years later, folks are complaining that gas is over $3.00/gallon and treating it like a sign of the apocalypse.

I'm not smart enough to know whether we're headed for economic collapse. But I do know that, if we are, we can't reliably predict it using short-term fluctuations in food and fossil fuel prices.

[G1911]

If you work a full time job, you should be able to afford a roof and to provide for your child. If you are willing to work there should be work for you. The fruits of your labor should primarily benefit your loved ones. Simplistic, but the goal usually is.

I have not seen a whole lot of correlation between hard work and incomes; in my experience it seems to have far more to do with politics (the corporate and personal kind). Laborers work harder than I ever have in my life, they don’t make as much. It’s an attractive notion I like, but it’s not really true. Some people work very hard and make a ton, some people work very hard and make nothing. Some barely work and rake it in.

The system doesn’t seem to be working all that well right now (measured against a goal, rather than measured against third world nations), we have completely failed a large number of our citizens who don’t even have a roof, we have people willing to work without work, we have a majority apparently living paycheck to paycheck or close to it. There’s not a lot of time (probably beyond the lifespan of some of the board, but not long in historical terms) before we have to have massive unemployment as a consequence of automation. What do we do when the work to live paradigm starts to end, as appears likely? I wish that was a subject of citizen discourse rather than some of the absurdities people are debating in the present instead.

[Republicaninmass]

Apparently nobody here does their own food shopping. Our bill is 25-30% higher. I tend not to believe a number that doesnt include what I'm buying or spending. Food /shelter/insurance

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Editing this is raw foods picked up a varierty of stores, Shoprite, traders Joes, and small amounts at HMart

rarely eat out, as yes those costs have dramatically increased. One restaurant I know said they can no longer off "buffalo"(chicken) wings because they would need to charge 15$ an order and people wont pay that for 6 wings

[Exhibitman]

I haven't seen the massive spike in my food costs. It has been in line with the inflation figures. That said, I am a cook and we do not buy much in the way of processed foods (no soda, cereal, chips, prepared meals, etc.), so I don't know how much those have changed relative to raw ingredients. Also helps that I live in one of the best agricultural states and I get a lot of my produce, eggs and meat locally. My utility costs have been pretty steady too, but that is probably more the weather than anything else. We had a very mild summer in SoCal this year so we rarely ran the AC for more than a few hours and we are technically out of drought so there are no premium water charges. The only really vicious cost increase for us is medical: 17% premium increase for 2024.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Our food buying is pretty much like yours but our bills are way up.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Our food buying is pretty much like yours but our bills are way up.

Mine are up, but up in line with the inflation stats. Might be the local aspect. On my last trip to NY, I noticed that produce costs a lot more in the East than it does out here. Moving veggies from Bakersfield to LA is a heck of a lot cheaper than from Bakersfield to MA or NY. But our average pizza sucks, so you have that going for you, which is nice.

[packs]

Do you guys go out to eat at all? I'm paying $8 for a medium coffee and plain croissant every morning in NYC. And that's at Pret A Manger. Not even a fancy independent place.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by packs

Do you guys go out to eat at all? I'm paying $8 for a medium coffee and plain croissant every morning in NYC. And that's at Pret A Manger. Not even a fancy independent place.

There could be a hint in there about why you're feeling strapped financially.

[packs]

Originally Posted by raulus

There could be a hint in there about why you're feeling strapped financially.

I doubt it since I don't feel strapped financially. I do think it's a little much to be paying for a no frills breakfast.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by packs

I doubt it since I don't feel strapped financially. I do think it's a little much to be paying for a no frills breakfast.

Right on. Glad to hear you're doing all right financially. You had me worried earlier with some of your posts.

But turning to your breakfast, I'm a simple man with a small brain, so I apologize if this is obvious, but I guess I'm struggling to understand why you would keep doing something every day if you feel like it's a bad bargain?

But maybe there's some other important non-economic element here, like it's an important part of your superstitious routine, or maybe you're there to support your wife who manages this location?

[SteveMitchell]

Originally Posted by bobbyw8469

I can't add anything to this conversation without someone making it political. So I won't say anything. However, something HAS to change.

Without specifically being political, many problems we are confronting today stem, at least in part, from political action. Inflation itself (which has been debated many times in my lifetime) IS a function of government. Price increases (or decreases) are generally reflections of a free market responding to a distorted money supply which, again, is a function of government or approved agencies (such as the FED). Our elected officials have distanced themselves (to varying degrees for decades) from the U.S. Constitution to the point that today's dollar (quite literally) buys what pennies purchased when T206's were issued. A mere 2% inflation rate devalues our dollars considerably within just a few years and given that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) no longer includes such fundamentals as food and energy, what can such government figures truly mean? If CPI were calculated as it was during an earlier great inflation (the 1970s), the official government numbers would be, as has been mentioned by others, 4X to 5X today's "official" figures.

[packs]

Originally Posted by raulus

Right on. Glad to hear you're doing all right financially. You had me worried earlier with some of your posts.

But turning to your breakfast, I'm a simple man with a small brain, so I apologize if this is obvious, but I guess I'm struggling to understand why you would keep doing something every day if you feel like it's a bad bargain?

But maybe there's some other important non-economic element here, like it's an important part of your superstitious routine, or maybe you're there to support your wife who manages this location?

I'm not sure what you're referring to. I've said that generally speaking, it's harder to do things like buy a house or have a child today because it's gotten to be prohibitively expensive for some people.

I get breakfast on my way into work for the same reason people buy a newspaper instead of reading it online. I like to.

[BioCRN]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Also helps that I live in one of the best agricultural states and I get a lot of my produce, eggs and meat locally.

California and Arizona produce/meat and most non-processed food costs are way out of whack with most of the nation. The meat is generally reasonably priced and they're practically giving away produce compared to what is going on in the Mid-West and East-Coast.

I'm not talking about a 10-pound bag of dried beans (though it's also very cheap), but a variety of field-fresh stuff.

You can eat very well on the cheap in most of Cali and Arizona if you're cooking it yourself and you shop to value availability rather than simply whatever your heart desires.

I'm uh...staying out of the other parts of this thread. I'm just really impressed by how much fresh produce I can get for next to nothing when I'm around that part of the West Coast and the meat is rather reasonably price, too.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by packs

I'm not sure what you're referring to. I've said that generally speaking, it's harder to do things like buy a house or have a child today because it's gotten to be prohibitively expensive for some people.

Cool, cool. I probably made the mistake of inferring that your original comment was autobiographical, and you were asking for a friend. My mistake.

Originally Posted by packs

I get breakfast on my way into work for the same reason people buy a newspaper instead of reading it online. I like to.

Fair enough. Sounds like as good a reason as any. And it sounds like you've decided that the pleasure derived from this breakfast is worth the $8 outlay.

[packs]

I do but to turn my observation back to the subject of the thread, I would of course prefer to pay less and was paying less up until inflation ramped up three years ago.

[jingram058]

Originally Posted by Yoda

James, when are you going to open your own Naval Recruiting Station? Makes me want to enlist, but, hell, I already did that and served with the Naval Security Group (CT) for 3 years in Rota, Spain, which was a terrific duty station, then stayed with the Reserves for several years. Ended up as an E6, just missed CPO. As you know, it is the Chiefs who run the Navy.
You make a strong, valid case for considering a military career.

Wow, I was a Pacific Fleety for almost my entire Navy career, with the exception of Charleston, Key West and schools. So I missed out on Rota. Everyone I know who was there says it is awesome. Thanks for your service, sir! I was an Aerographer's Mate (AG, weather guesser) before I got commissioned. Yes, Chiefs do run the Navy! I made AGC while on board USS Independence CV-62. Sad to say she's razor blades now. Indy was a good ship.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by BioCRN

California and Arizona produce/meat and most non-processed food costs are way out of whack with most of the nation. The meat is generally reasonably priced and they're practically giving away produce compared to what is going on in the Mid-West and East-Coast.

I'm not talking about a 10-pound bag of dried beans (though it's also very cheap), but a variety of field-fresh stuff.

You can eat very well on the cheap in most of Cali and Arizona if you're cooking it yourself and you shop to value availability rather than simply whatever your heart desires.

I'm uh...staying out of the other parts of this thread. I'm just really impressed by how much fresh produce I can get for next to nothing when I'm around that part of the West Coast and the meat is rather reasonably price, too.

I was extremely impressed by the large number of very large greenhouses growing produce in Arizona. When attending the U of A for growing produce in greenhouses we got to tour a few. As someone who grew produce commercially for a few years. Price is mostly determined by the subsidies received. It is in all honesty the most important part of growing produce for profit.

[timzcardz]

Originally Posted by packs

Do you guys go out to eat at all? I'm paying $8 for a medium coffee and plain croissant every morning in NYC. And that's at Pret A Manger. Not even a fancy independent place.

I go to an independent place, the coffee cart right outside or Pret A Manger (29th and 7th), Large coffee and two buttered rolls, $6 including a tip!

And he usually gets it ready for me between the time he sees me down the block and when I get to the cart.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

You bill likely doubled

Maybe I misinterpreted your comment.

People in my neighborhood with pool heaters and lights on all day said their bills WERE 600-1k per month, I haven't checked in recently

My total average cost of electricity was 14.0 cents per kWh in 2020.

My total average cost of electricity was 16.0 cents per kWh over the last 12 bills ending in November, 2023.

Do I think this modest increase is indicative of national inflationary trends?
No, I do not. It is a mere localized sample.

You can't draw broad conclusions from the cost of an item at your local store.

Also, people don't seem to understand how compound interest works. If inflation was 7% annually, the cost of goods would nearly double every ten years. Even moderate amounts of inflation cause the cost of goods to go up significantly (in nominal, not real values).

[BioCRN]

Originally Posted by bnorth

I was extremely impressed by the large number of very large greenhouses growing produce in Arizona. When attending the U of A for growing produce in greenhouses we got to tour a few. As someone who grew produce commercially for a few years. Price is mostly determined by the subsidies received. It is in all honesty the most important part of growing produce for profit.

I miss UArizona's greenhouse webcams. It was nice to see what they happened to be working on.

I used to work in research agriculture (BASF, Syngenta), but I currently work in a lab environment government position focusing on post-harvest testing.