Which card will sell for more

[chriskim]

Keeping cash and buy TSLA. LOL

[rhettyeakley]

Originally Posted by edjs

So, what does a 1/1 for a player that didn’t become a star go for? Or even another 5/5? What is the average Joe’s bump on these serial numbered cards?

They literally go for about $10-20, maybe a little more if they have the Major League team shown and a team collector wants it.

https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_fro...lete=1&_sop=15

[edjs]

Originally Posted by rhettyeakley

They literally go for about $10-20, maybe a little more if they have the Major League team shown and a team collector wants it.

https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_fro...lete=1&_sop=15

That’s so weird.

[Tyruscobb]

Originally Posted by Bored5000

I don't say this to diminish Cobb in any way, but come on. Trout is not a "flash in the pan." He is the best player of his generation.

In eight full seasons, he has finished top two in MVP voting seven times. He has led the A.L. in offensive WAR seven times in eight years. The only season he wasn't in the top two in MVP voting and failed to lead the league in offensive WAR, he missed a third of the season due to injury.

Be it 1910 or 2020, those are otherworldly stats.

Trout’s numbers are even with Puljos’ first 8 years. Would you pay big money for a Puljos card at this point? Exactly. His numbers have the ability to drop just like Puljos.

The Cobb value is set in stone. The Trout card’s downside is greater than the card’s upside. An all-time great v. a player who still has the ability to sustain multiple injuries and risking hundreds of thousands? It’s not even close. Hindsight is 20/20, but Cobb is the correct investment here. Buying that Trout is not really investing but more of like a casino play. It’s gambling.

[Bored5000]

Originally Posted by Tyruscobb

Trout’s numbers are even with Puljos’ first 8 years. Would you pay big money for a Puljos card at this point? Exactly. His numbers have the ability to drop just like Puljos.

The Cobb value is set in stone. The Trout card’s downside is greater than the card’s upside. An all-time great v. a player who still has the ability to sustain multiple injuries and risking hundreds of thousands? It’s not even close. Hindsight is 20/20, but Cobb is the correct investment here. Buying that Trout is not really investing but more of like a casino play. It’s gambling.

I would rather have the Cobb card in a heartbeat. I was mostly objecting to the characterization of a guy with seven top-two MVP finishes in eight years as a "flash in the pan." Even though I would rather have the Cobb card, I recognize that Trout is the best player of his generation.

When I first saw your user name, I was worried you might not be objective on the topic.

[Topnotchsy]

Originally Posted by Tyruscobb

Trout’s numbers are even with Puljos’ first 8 years. Would you pay big money for a Puljos card at this point? Exactly. His numbers have the ability to drop just like Puljos.

The Cobb value is set in stone. The Trout card’s downside is greater than the card’s upside. An all-time great v. a player who still has the ability to sustain multiple injuries and risking hundreds of thousands? It’s not even close. Hindsight is 20/20, but Cobb is the correct investment here. Buying that Trout is not really investing but more of like a casino play. It’s gambling.

Pujols is an all-time great and one of the 25 best players in baseball history, but I don't think he was as good as Trout to this point in his career, was never a 5-tool player, was never as marketable, and represents close to the worst-case scenario for Trout going forward.

Not saying the price on the Trout should be more than Cobb or anything like that, but his all-around performance and marketability is unlike anything we have seen probably since Mantle.

[darwinbulldog]

If they both retire today, I'd say Trout has had about the 30th best career in MLB history (including 8 pitchers) and Pujols about the 40th best. More to the point, Trout has done more in his first 8 seasons than Pujols had done in his astonishingly strong first 10 seasons. Statistically he's at least the best player since Barry Bonds and arguably the best since Ruth.

Pointing out that Trout won't keep up the same pace is not insightful. It's just a straw man since neither did Cobb or Ruth.

[midmo]

Originally Posted by darwinbulldog

More to the point, Trout has done more in his first 8 seasons than Pujols had done in his astonishingly strong first 10 seasons.

Not to make this thread about Trout vs Pujols, but here's the stats...

first 9 years:

Mike Trout - ROY, MVP-1 (3), MVP-2 (4), MVP-4 (1), SS (7)
AB=4340, R=903, H=1324, 2B=251, HR=285, RBI=752, SB=200, AVG=.305
postseason game wins=0

Albert Pujols - ROY, MVP-1 (3), MVP-2 (3), MVP-3 (1), MVP-4 (1), SS (5), GG (1)
AB=5146, R=1071, H=1717, 2B=387, HR=366, RBI=1112, SB=61, AVG=.334
2006 World Series Champion

or if you want to take out Albert's 9th year to make the ABs more similar here's his first 8 years:
AB=4578, R=947, H=1531, 2B=342, HR=319, RBI=977, SB=45, AVG=.334

[LincolnVT]

+1

Originally Posted by bnorth

I voted Trout, he seems to be this generations Albert Pujols.

The price difference in 15 years from now would be nice to know? I would pick the Cobb in that one.

[bounce]

Originally Posted by midmo

Not to make this thread about Trout vs Pujols, but here's the stats...

first 9 years:

Mike Trout - ROY, MVP-1 (3), MVP-2 (4), MVP-4 (1), SS (7)
AB=4340, R=903, H=1324, 2B=251, HR=285, RBI=752, SB=200, AVG=.305
postseason game wins=0

Albert Pujols - ROY, MVP-1 (3), MVP-2 (3), MVP-3 (1), MVP-4 (1), SS (5), GG (1)
or if you want to take out Albert's 9th year to make the ABs more similar here's his first 8 years:
AB=4578, R=947, H=1531, 2B=342, HR=319, RBI=977, SB=45, AVG=.334

Frank Thomas was another that I thought might be interesting, first 9 seasons - 2 MVPs, 5 AS
AB=4406, R=894, H=1416, 2B=281, HR=286, RBI=963

Then there's Griffey, probably a better comparison considering they both play the same position? First 9 seasons - 1 MVP (really he only won it once?!?!), 8 AS
AB=4593, R=820, H=1389, 2B=261, HR=294, RBI=872

I think these stats tend to show these other guys hit for better average than Trout, and may have had better teams around them (?) when looking at the RBI differentials. The BB totals aren't hugely different, so that doesn't seem to be a factor. I didn't bother to look at Ks, but again I doubt there's a substantial impact from that which would change this analysis.

I can't believe I'm saying this, because Trout is really good, but is it just possible he's not as good as we want him to be?

Or, does it possibly say anything about the elite caliber of other players in MLB during this era? I don't know - it's fun to think about though, especially the impacts of collecting.

Anyway, I voted Trout on this and it won't even be close.

[RCMcKenzie]

As an Astros fan, if there is a runner on 2nd and 2 outs, I don't want them to walk Trout to get to Pujols, even now. Pujols has always destroyed Astros' pitching. Trout swings and misses at high fastballs a lot.

I think my vote for Trout was wrong, I think the Cobb sold for more than the Trout will go for. Last I saw, the Trout was still at 200K.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by Topnotchsy

Pujols is an all-time great and one of the 25 best players in baseball history, but I don't think he was as good as Trout to this point in his career, was never a 5-tool player, was never as marketable, and represents close to the worst-case scenario for Trout going forward.

Not saying the price on the Trout should be more than Cobb or anything like that, but his all-around performance and marketability is unlike anything we have seen probably since Mantle.

Trout was never a 5 tool player either. He is average defensively and has an average arm. He even played quite a bit of left field earlier in his career, not where you would stick a good fielder with a strong arm. Albert Pujols and Frank Thomas were significantly better offensively than Trout at his peak, that makes up for Trout's speed and base running. At one time Thomas and Pujols were hot and cooled off when their performance dropped. Unless Trout can play at a high level through his 30s like Cobb, Ruth, Clemente, Mays, Aaron, Williams, etc. he will too.

If Trout is at or passing his peak, then this card is also and has little upside. The Cobb will continue to rise and some think it actually sold low, even at 300k.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by darwinbulldog

If they both retire today, I'd say Trout has had about the 30th best career in MLB history (including 8 pitchers) and Pujols about the 40th best. More to the point, Trout has done more in his first 8 seasons than Pujols had done in his astonishingly strong first 10 seasons. Statistically he's at least the best player since Barry Bonds and arguably the best since Ruth.

Pointing out that Trout won't keep up the same pace is not insightful. It's just a straw man since neither did Cobb or Ruth.

Really? At age 36 Ruth led the majors with 10.5 WAR as well as HR, OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+ with 218. Age 37 OPS+ 201. Age 38 OPS+ 176. Age 39 OPS+ 160.

At age 35, Cobb hit .401 with an OPS of 1.026 despite only hitting 4 home runs and was 2nd in oWAR. At age 38 Cobb hit .378 and led the league in OPS and OPS+ and hit a career high 12 home runs. That season, upset about all the talk of Ruth's Home Runs, Cobb told writers he could hit home runs if he wanted to and went out and hit 3 home runs along with a double and 2 singles going 6 for 6. The next day he hit 2 more setting a MLB record for most HRs in back to back games that still stands. Then Cobb went back to playing his "dead ball era" style.

[JunkyJoe]

None of these prices for modern cards makes any sense, without there being an underhanded catalyst involved. Here's my take: a card dealer owns multiples of a very low production serial#'d card of a "hot" player. The dealer consigns one of these super-rare super-hot cards through a major auction house and, either by himself or with the help of his associates/employees/family members, shills up the auction from multiple bidder accounts and then essentially buys the card from himself. After the smoke and mirrors show is produced for the collecting/investing public, no money has actually traded hands. The market is now primed for the next auction of this super-rare super-hot card from a different seller (or, so we're led to believe). The same dealer has another one of his super-rare super-hot cards consigned, this time by a family member, friend, or possibly even a fellow shady dealer who takes a pre-negotiated cut of the final sale price. And yes, unfortunately, there are plenty of trust fund dimwits out there foaming at the mouth to be the next high roller / "baller" who spends record bucks on that card.

[mouschi]

Originally Posted by rats60

Really? At age 36 Ruth led the majors with 10.5 WAR as well as HR, OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+ with 218. Age 37 OPS+ 201. Age 38 OPS+ 176. Age 39 OPS+ 160.

At age 35, Cobb hit .401 with an OPS of 1.026 despite only hitting 4 home runs and was 2nd in oWAR. At age 38 Cobb hit .378 and led the league in OPS and OPS+ and hit a career high 12 home runs. That season, upset about all the talk of Ruth's Home Runs, Cobb told writers he could hit home runs if he wanted to and went out and hit 3 home runs along with a double and 2 singles going 6 for 6. The next day he hit 2 more setting a MLB record for most HRs in back to back games that still stands. Then Cobb went back to playing his "dead ball era" style.

I **LOVE** This.

[nat]

Trout is a little bit less than halfway to Cobb's career WAR, but he's beating everyone in history for his various ages up until now. (This will almost certainly not continue after we lose this season.) Any detailed Cobb/Ruth comparisons are premature, but we are definitely watching one of the all-time greats.

Pujols more or less matched Trout's yearly production in his 20s, but Trout started a year younger than Pujols did, which accounts for his higher totals at each age. At his established level of production, Trout's career will equal Pujols' in value in 3+ years. He could, of course, crater like Pujols did, but that's pretty much a worst-case scenario. (Sort of like rivaling Ruth is a best-case scenario. Neither one is likely.)

[todeen]

Originally Posted by Stampsfan

Ugh. Artificial scarcity has never made sense to me.

My ex-wife has boxes of limited edition Bradford Exchange plates.

+1
LOL

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using Tapatalk

[BeanTown]

Final call to vote and I updated the current positions of each card.

[55koufax]

Vegas Dave, there is little chance Cobb is the winner. This clowno will pay anything for high end, ultra rare Trout cards. Go to you tube and put his name in and see.

Vegas Dave and Holly Sonders were an item til recently too. Good to see she is not as brainless as previous actions indicated.

I am rooting for The Trouter Man to tank the rest of his career (not really) just to see this Vegas Dave lose millions for trying to openly monopolize the Trout market.

[BeanTown]

Originally Posted by 55koufax

Vegas Dave, there is little chance Cobb is the winner. This clowno will pay anything for high end, ultra rare Trout cards. Go to you tube and put his name in and see.

Vegas Dave and Holly Sonders were an item til recently too. Good to see she is not as brainless as previous actions indicated.

I am rooting for The Trouter Man to tank the rest of his career (not really) just to see this Vegas Dave lose millions for trying to openly monopolize the Trout market.

Ive never heard of him. He must have somekind of large bankroll to affect the market on Trout. Sounds like the Hunt Brothers of the 70s trying to corner the market on Silver

[rats60]

Originally Posted by 55koufax

Vegas Dave, there is little chance Cobb is the winner. This clowno will pay anything for high end, ultra rare Trout cards. Go to you tube and put his name in and see.

Vegas Dave and Holly Sonders were an item til recently too. Good to see she is not as brainless as previous actions indicated.

I am rooting for The Trouter Man to tank the rest of his career (not really) just to see this Vegas Dave lose millions for trying to openly monopolize the Trout market.

Vegas Dave is selling this card. I am sure he is making a huge profit.

[phikappapsi]

funny - just yesterday I was scrolling through ebay just wasting time. And got curious; Pat Mahomes signed rookie cards with mint grades; $50K+++ Peyton Manning signed rookie cards, also mint, $1-2k.

In what world does that make sense (yet?) the recency bias in the modern market is insane. Just buy known quantities, at the end of their career or retirement. The speculation on the front end of careers is just lunacy.

[Goldin Auctions]

https://goldinauctions.com/2009_Bowm...-LOT57497.aspx

No switching your votes

[VintageBen]

Originally Posted by Goldin Auctions

https://goldinauctions.com/2009_Bowm...-LOT57497.aspx

No switching your votes

I was just about to switch mine

[MattyC]

Not saying it is the case here with this card, but we all know that sometimes an unscrupulous person will gladly pay even a hefty AH fee to get a big sale number in the data record.

In such a case the owner might be sitting on a few similar or identical cards, and then even if they sell later direct at a beefy discount from the AH hammer, there will be substantial profit.

Enough profit where paying the AH fee on a "sale" paid off well.

It's happened before in the hobby and will happen again.

[mantlefan]

$420 K with the hammer. Amazing. And the case is scratched. Good luck to the guy who cracks that baby out to re-holder.

[MRSPORTSCARDCOLLECTOR]

Originally Posted by BeanTown

Final call to vote and I updated the current positions of each card.

Cobb.

[BeanTown]

The auction is stil going on. Looks like Trout is the winner. Now the question is.... By how much?

[Goldin Auctions]

Trout wins by $500,000
$780,000 total.
you will be able to see it in completed auctions spring auction session 1 tomorrow

MAKE THAT $900,000
STILL GOING

[Steve D]

Originally Posted by Goldin Auctions

Trout wins by $500,000
$780,000 total.
you will be able to see it in completed auctions spring auction session 1 tomorrow

MAKE THAT $900,000
STILL GOING

Speaking as someone (who relies on the measly military retirement and VA disability pay) who has to scratch and claw for the money to buy the cards I want, the obscene prices cards are getting right now make me absolutely sick and disgusted.

A PSA 3 '86 Fleer Michael Jordan is going for $2K+ right now!!!!!

I'm seriously wondering if I should just throw in the towel and give up

Steve

[swarmee]

Originally Posted by Goldin Auctions

Trout wins by $500,000
$780,000 total.
you will be able to see it in completed auctions spring auction session 1 tomorrow

MAKE THAT $900,000
STILL GOING

Is it still going? Just extend the auction a few more days...

[BeanTown]

Now that the auction has closed for the Trout. The voting ended up being 96 votes for Cobb 46% compared to 114 votes for Trout at 54%. The vote was very close and almost split while both auctions were active. After Trout pulled ahead of Cobb (Cobb closed over month ago), votes kept coming in for Trout.

I have to admit the FV of both items surprised me. I thought the Cobb should have gone for more and the Trout should have gone for less. My hunch is there was not much of a bidding war on the Cobb, and the Trout had 2 people fight it out.

If the Trout card comes up for auction again or one just like it.... Maybe we will have a T206 Wagner to compete with it next time.

May 21 2020

[x2drich2000]

Originally Posted by Steve D

Speaking as someone (who relies on the measly military retirement and VA disability pay) who has to scratch and claw for the money to buy the cards I want, the obscene prices cards are getting right now make me absolutely sick and disgusted.

A PSA 3 '86 Fleer Michael Jordan is going for $2K+ right now!!!!!

I'm seriously wondering if I should just throw in the towel and give up

Steve

Steve, not to get off topic with this post, but the last few PSA 10 Jordan's have been getting up around $85k.

[GasHouseGang]

The Trout closed at $922,500! Wow.

[BeanTown]

Maybe ESPN can start covering auction houses when extended bidding starts. Then a couple hobby personalities can hype up cards when they get a bid or when they are surprised a lot is still low. Works good for car auctions.

[rjackson44]

wonder if this will be paid for ,,

[BeanTown]

I think Ken Goldin is going to be very transparent about this particular sale. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see him post

[swarmee]

Originally Posted by BeanTown

I think Ken Goldin is going to be very transparent about this particular sale. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see him post

He has been posting up a storm on blowout, including releasing email messages from bidders on the board. He declared that he will notify the public when the card gets paid for and delivered. Says that the top two bidders are regulars with his auctionhouse:
https://www.blowoutforums.com/showth...1378669&page=3
See posts 62 and 68.

[sreader3]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shock...194455858.html

Offered without comment.

[RCMcKenzie]

I think it's good pub for the hobby. I saw the yahoo finance article earlier, and thought they might have mentioned that McKenzie picked up another n172 Chicago Maroons card, but the article didn't say anything about that.

[Goldin Auctions]

Originally Posted by BeanTown

I think Ken Goldin is going to be very transparent about this particular sale. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see him post

100%
Will do same here
Very important sale for the hobby

[brian1961]

Originally Posted by Steve D

Speaking as someone (who relies on the measly military retirement and VA disability pay) who has to scratch and claw for the money to buy the cards I want, the obscene prices cards are getting right now make me absolutely sick and disgusted.

A PSA 3 '86 Fleer Michael Jordan is going for $2K+ right now!!!!!

I'm seriously wondering if I should just throw in the towel and give up

Steve

Hey Steve, Brian Powell here. Just a fellow collector who also has to scratch and claw for hobby money. I've collected cards since 1961, and entered the adult hobby in '72. In that virtual lifetime of collecting, I have seen a lot of trends. Some of those have disappeared because the items were just tough challenging to hunt down. Another trend, rookie collecting, sprung up in the 70s as collectors found they liked collecting that niche. Dealers quickly noticed, AND BEGAN JACKING THEIR PRICES UP HIGHER AND HIGHER, UNTIL WHAT YOU SEE TODAY. When the hobby seemed to explode in the 80s, rookie card speculation of modern day rookies became its own niche, and rampant. The belief was that some of those players would become Mickey Mantle. Rarely, as you probably know, did any of them get half as good as Mick.

Then, in the early 90s, chase cards blossomed on the scene. Artificially rare, but so what? They were indeed rare as hen's teeth. Thus came those ultra rare Michael Jordans collectors discuss with the shaking of the head..... The filthy stinking rich have always seemed to play these kind of conniving games with their collecting interests. Sometimes there's absolutely nothing conniving about it----2 blokes with deep pockets love the same kind of cards, and they have an auction dogfight. In the end, expensive gets reinvented. Let's face it, the motivation of 75% of younger collectors today is buying for resale, which is speculative. Whether they buy boxes or cases and have their ripping games and events, or flat out "invest" in what they honestly believe has great potential in the coming years, it all seems to reflect the gambling mentality that is so prevalent in today's society, which is absorbed with lottery ticket gambling, or going to the casino. They wish to take "that chance". At times I cannot blame them one bit; after all, what kind of interest does your bank pay you on your savings account? If it's like mine, then essentially nuttin'.

Precisely.

Friend, deep, deep, down, if you love the cards, keep collecting for your love of the cards. Avoid over-paying where possible. All in all, collect what brings a big huge smile to your face. Me, I love Mickey Mantle and Roger Maris. The prices today---oooh boy. By the grace of God, I was able to hold onto most of my childhood Mickeys and the ones I was able to procure in the 80s and 90s. My enjoyment in recent years has been finding modern day Mantle & Maris cards that have lots of eye appeal to me, with a great photo and a clever design. Many of the modern cards fall short in these areas. Most collectors turn their collective noses up at modern cards of the greats. Nuts to them; if I love them, I will collect them and display them---for me. I didn't get them so they would appreciate in value; I got them because I appreciate how they look. The period photos of Mick and the Rajah hail back to their glory days with the Yanks---so to me, that's great. That's what it's all about.

Believe me, I understand. Nobody, but nobody, wants to throw their money away on worthless cards, or vintage cards that millenials or the baby just born may not be interested in 20-30 years later. Life is full of choices and chances, as you well know. Thank you for your service to our country, sir.

In the end, keep your collecting for FUN; otherwise, find another hobby that IS fun to you.

A brotherly hug to you, buddy. --- Brian Powell

[sayheykid54]

Without question I would personally want the Cobb. It's not even close. ANY modern card selling for $500K is simply insane.

[Goldin Auctions]

We just wanted to inform everyone in the forum that we have received a wire for the full amount of the Mike Trout Card sale.
the sale if confirmed
thank you all for your interest in this historic sale.

https://goldinauctions.com/2009_Bowm...-LOT57497.aspx