How Many T206s T3s Old Judges etc are out there?

[okmaybent@aol.com]

Rifting off the "Mission Impossible" post about completing the basic T206 set gets me to thinking. How many sets of 514 do you think are possible? How many of each card do you guess-timate are still out there?

How many of each T3 do you think are out there? 300 of each player? 500?

How many of each pose of Old Judge? Mello Mint? You pick.

I suppose another way to approach it is .... if PSA and SGC combined have graded 50 of something ... what do you suppose is the number of cards that remain ungraded? 150 more? 500 more?

I would be interested in your thoughts.

[fkw]

no one knows for sure..

my guesses
est. 1,000,000 T206 cards survive, or about 2,500 of each common pose.... sounds good to me
as far as sets, the Plank and Wagner limit it to about 60 sets possible, if you take out the big 4-5 then maybe 1,000 sets possible ... its all a guess though... they ARE the most common PreWar card in existence, but having roughly 520 in a set makes the set a little tougher because of size ($$ is the main factor though)

T3s are common, but some players are very tough. Because you could choose which player you wanted, the more popular the player the more common they are. Im sure there are 10-15+X more Cobbs and Mathewsons compared to one of the action poses or some of the less popular players.
cant guess on how many survive, many many thousands Im sure...

Old Judges are common if you are just looking for a "type" but some poses and players are almost unique, Im no where near an expert on the set, but do know some pull good $$, ie the PCL players and the Anson in uniform, and its because they are very rare.... a complete set w/ all poses is impossible IMO

Now the E105 Mello Mint is a funny one to bring up compared to the common cards above, they are fairly rare and in a completely different league, only a dozen or 2 of each player probably ....if that.

[drc]

I have once or twice heard from experienced collectors that there are about 5,000 per common T206 card, but don't know if that number is true nor how to verify it.

[vintagecpa]

I suspect nearly any estimate for pre-war cards and sets would be an underestimate of the true population. There are just so many ungraded cards socked away in private collections or collections that will always stay in the family. Just using the T206 Wagner as an example, there are many more known examples of the card than were known 25-30 years ago. (I believe only 8-10 were known in 1980 compared to 60-75 today). How many more examples will exist 30 years from now?

[jp1216]

BTW, my thread wasn't titled "mission impossible". Never said it was hard. Impossible would be including the Plank and Wagner (for me). T206s are easy to find. I honestly spent 3 years putting my set (512) together. But 80% was in the past 12 months. Not hard at all. Today - with the internet (eBay and Net54) - easy...

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by okmaybent@aol.com

I suppose another way to approach it is .... if PSA and SGC combined have graded 50 of something ... what do you suppose is the number of cards that remain ungraded? 150 more? 500 more?

The above is a very good question. I once posted PSA population figures for some of the variations, asking the same.

I was told by one of the guys at T206Resource.com that they have enough information to derive multipliers for each card (independent of backs). So if you could come up with an estimate for commons, based on PSA/SGC pop reports, you should be able to apply the the multiplier and come up with a useful number for all others. You would want to do it this way, not considering the PSA/SGC pop numbers for uncommons, because the uncommons would probably be graded more frequently. Just guessing.

[E93]

Originally Posted by fkw

Now the E105 Mello Mint is a funny one to bring up compared to the common cards above, they are fairly rare and in a completely different league, only a dozen or 2 of each player probably ....if that.

Mello Mints are pretty tough in general but there is a big divide in the set. About half to 2/3 have a few dozen known each, but for about a third of the set there are only roughly 2-6 know. Cobb falls into this extremely tough category. Young is one of the easier Mello Mints.
JimB