Aaron Judge

[packs]

Again, I have to disagree.

Jim Thome was 24 before his first full season.

Mariano Rivera was 25 and 26 before he recorded his first save.

Trevor Hoffman was 25 and missed induction by 1 percent last year.

Edgar Martinez was 27 when he entered his first full season. He got almost 60 % of the vote last year and has been climbing every year he's been eligible.

David Ortiz was 27 too before his first season on the Red Sox. A lot of people see him as a HOFer.

Ichiro was 27.

I don't think age really is an indicator.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

Again, I have to disagree.

Jim Thome was 24 before his first full season.

Mariano Rivera was 25 and 26 before he recorded his first save.

Trevor Hoffman was 25 and missed induction by 1 percent last year.

Edgar Martinez was 27 when he entered his first full season. He got almost 60 % of the vote last year and has been climbing every year he's been eligible.

David Ortiz was 27 too before his first season on the Red Sox. A lot of people see him as a HOFer.

Ichiro was 27.

I don't think age really is an indicator.

Boggs was 24. The brilliant Red Sox management kept him in the minors for years lol.

[orly57]

Originally Posted by packs

Again, I have to disagree.

Jim Thome was 24 before his first full season.

Mariano Rivera was 25 and 26 before he recorded his first save.

Trevor Hoffman was 25 and missed induction by 1 percent last year.

Edgar Martinez was 27 when he entered his first full season. He got almost 60 % of the vote last year and has been climbing every year he's been eligible.

David Ortiz was 27 too before his first season on the Red Sox. A lot of people see him as a HOFer.

Ichiro was 27.

I don't think age really is an indicator.

How are all those guys' rookie cards doing these days? I know, I know, cards weren't "limited" back then. I am sure that an Edgar Martinez 1/1 blue, triple refractor, auto-patch would be worth hundreds of thousands.
Of all the guys mentioned, I would grant that if Mariano had one of those 1/1 cards, it would be worth big bucks. But Mariano is an all time great. He's a once in a lifetime talent. Talk about chasing a needle in a haystack.

[MattyC]

"If" a rookie wins MVP and ROY in the same season, while setting the rookie HR record, and chasing a triple crown— that's sounds like one heck of a talent to me.

It would be one season, yes— yet every player starts with just one season.

If the needle/haystack is in reference to how some are looking at Judge, I would respectfully offer that instead of raining on the Aaron Judge parade, why not smile and enjoy a kid who is playing the right way, providing enormous entertainment and excitement— and creating positive energy for both baseball and the card hobby. Not to mention he's showcasing all the physical and mental skills a player needs to keep on raking.

There's a whole journey that is a player's career; fans and collectors can enjoy that journey without worrying what the player's rookie cards will be valued at when their careers are over. And if Mr. Judge can average 33.3 HRs from 25-40, while winning a WS or three along the way, for the biggest market team on earth, all the better. Time will tell. And for many collectors and collector-investors of current/modern players, watching that time play out in the present is something of value in and of itself.

There are movies and books that one has seen and read, and the outcome is known. Those can always be picked up and enjoyed again. Then there is the thrill of watching a story unfold, where you don't know the outcome. That's also enjoyable. These two types of entertainment are not mutually exclusive.

It seems that when we have great young players performing in the present, we're in such a rush to know or determine what their final career counting stats will be. I guess what I am talking about is living in and enjoying the moment. There was a time when Shoeless or Hornsby or Cobb or Ruth or Mantle were young, and people loved collecting them at that time; imagine someone coming along and going, "Man, that Mantle just got terribly injured and ripped his knee apart, and he K's a ton, and they already sent him down once, and I heard he almost quit, why are you wasting your time with him? He won't get 3000 hits. What's his rookie gonna be worth when his career's over?"

* I will add this, since the value topic was brought up: my Aaron Judge cards have thus far gained more value percentage-wise, and at a faster pace, than any vintage piece I've ever owned. That said, as a collector I love all my cards the same.

[packs]

Originally Posted by orly57

How are all those guys' rookie cards doing these days? I know, I know, cards weren't "limited" back then. I am sure that an Edgar Martinez 1/1 blue, triple refractor, auto-patch would be worth hundreds of thousands.
Of all the guys mentioned, I would grant that if Mariano had one of those 1/1 cards, it would be worth big bucks. But Mariano is an all time great. He's a once in a lifetime talent. Talk about chasing a needle in a haystack.

My post was only in reference to another poster who said a guy who begins his career at 25 doesn't have much of a shot at making the HOF.

As far as "values" go, look at Manny Machado. He's hitting 225 right now. His auto rookie is still selling for a few hundred bucks a piece. So you can't really talk about Thome or Edgar Martinez's rookie cards in respect to the modern rookie card. They were manufactured in the millions vs thousands and then hundreds and then dozens. It's apples to oranges.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Values are really fickle. Just for kicks I bought a couple of Bellingers and literally within a week before I even had them (a few HR later I guess) the same cards were selling for double and even more. Crazy.

[orly57]

Of course the prices of current players will go up quicker than the images of the dead guys. They have one or two big weeks and their cards are buzzing on eBay like the NY stock exchange. The issue is whether or not that young player can sustain that pace over a long period of time. High-risk stocks always give higher yields than lower-risk blue-chips.
And Matty, no one is rooting against Aaron Judge (except Red Sox fans). His sample-size keeps growing and he keeps performing like a stud.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by orly57

...
Of all the guys mentioned, I would grant that if Mariano had one of those 1/1 cards, it would be worth big bucks. But Mariano is an all time great. He's a once in a lifetime talent. Talk about chasing a needle in a haystack.

I know this is a tangent of a tangent, but why does anyone think this about Mariano? He was just a great closer when that position started becoming more integral in the game. He wasn't a once in a lifetime, he was just the first great closer. You look at Craig Kimbrel, a pitcher that was groomed for the position, and he is better than Mariano was.

[packs]

Originally Posted by bn2cardz

I know this is a tangent of a tangent, but why does anyone think this about Mariano? He was just a great closer when that position started becoming more integral in the game. He wasn't a once in a lifetime, he was just the first great closer. You look at Craig Kimbrel, a pitcher that was groomed for the position, and he is better than Mariano was.

Seriously? He is perhaps the greatest inning by inning pitcher of all time. Craig Kimbrel doesn't sniff him at all. First off, Kimbrel has only been pitching for 8 seasons. Mariano pitched for 19. Everyone knows that closers burn out bright, which is what made Mariano's career remarkable. Kimbrel could easily be Papelbon two seasons from now.

Secondly, Mariano will always be a legend for what he did in the post season. In the World Series, the penultimate moments of any season and career, Rivera has a 0.99 ERA over 24 games. Over 96 career post season games Rivera's ERA is 0.70. No one will ever be as clutch or automatic as Rivera was.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Yeah, when he got beaten in a big game -- as he did by the Sox in 04 of course -- it was an event. He should be in the HOF for his nickname alone.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by packs

Seriously? He is perhaps the greatest inning by inning pitcher of all time. Craig Kimbrel doesn't sniff him at all. First off, Kimbrel has only been pitching for 8 seasons. Mariano pitched for 19. Everyone knows that closers burn out bright, which is what made Mariano's career remarkable. Kimbrel could easily be Papelbon two seasons from now.

Secondly, Mariano will always be a legend for what he did in the post season. In the World Series, the penultimate moments of any season and career, Rivera has a 0.99 ERA over 24 games. Over 96 career post season games Rivera's ERA is 0.70. No one will ever be as clutch or automatic as Rivera was.

Ok so because Kimbrel's career isn't over we can't compare them? That has become the root of this entire thread. I understand that Mariano played 19 seasons.

Let me compare Kimbrel's first full seasons (2011 to 2016) to Mariano's equivalent (1997 to 2002). Also keep in mind that Kimbrel's first full season as closer came at age 23 compared to Mariano age 27.

Kimbrel:
391 Games / 380.2 IP
255SV/280SVO = 91.07%
WHIP: .935
ERA: 1.94
SO 606
SO9 14.3


Rivera:
368 Games / 404.1 IP
238SV / 272SVO = 87.5%
WHIP: 1.021
ERA: 2.25
SO 338
SO9 7.5


This isn't to say that Rivera wasn't great, but there is nothing in these stats that would merit someone stating "Craig Kimbrel doesn't sniff him at all". I will state it again, Mariano appeared to be the greatest because he came into the position when it was still in its inception. Now, though, player's are groomed for the position. Kimbrel was groomed as are others that will follow him in. I do understand that Kimbrel would have to play 11 more seasons to match Rivera's career but he may be able to accumulate the stats quicker with the pace he is on., but that doesn't change the fact that inning for inning, Kimbrel is starting out on pace or better than Rivera did.

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Yeah, when he got beaten in a big game -- as he did by the Sox in 04 of course -- it was an event. He should be in the HOF for his nickname alone.

His losses became a story, but Kimbrel giving up a hit was considered a bad outing in an ESPN article today:

Craig Kimbrel had a bad outing Thursday.

He actually allowed a hit.

http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/p...s-of-home-runs

[packs]

How do account for the difference in WAR over 8 seasons? Mariano's is 26 and Kimbrel's is 16.5. Kimbrel's highest single season total was 3.3. Mariano eclipsed 3.3 WAR 9 times in his career. That's a pretty big difference for two pitchers you say are similar.

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by packs

How do account for the difference in WAR over 8 seasons? Mariano's is 26 and Kimbrel's is 16.5. Kimbrel's highest single season total was 3.3. Mariano eclipsed 3.3 WAR 9 times in his career. That's a pretty big difference for two pitchers you say are similar.

Innings pretty much. Mariano faced more batters and likely did it against better opposition, in tougher ballparks, and also did it right in the heart of the steroid era.

Even then, as a reliever, most weren't running out and buying up Mariano rookie cards. He started old and most expected him to peter out. It wasn't until many years later when people realized what a generational talent he was.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by packs

How do account for the difference in WAR over 8 seasons? Mariano's is 26 and Kimbrel's is 16.5. Kimbrel's highest single season total was 3.3. Mariano eclipsed 3.3 WAR 9 times in his career. That's a pretty big difference for two pitchers you say are similar.

I don't know what 8 years you are comparing for Mariano, but Kimbrel hasn't played a full 8 seasons yet. So you can't compare 8 seasons. For the years I compared (Kimbrel's full seasons 2011-2016, and Rivera's first 6 full seasons as a reliever 1997-2002) then the numbers are Kimbrel 13.6 and Rivera 17.5. This still puts the favor in Rivera, but not nearly the difference you have. It also backs up my theory, though, that Rivera didn't have many comps when he played. Today Kimbrel is, arguably, not even the best this season, but doing better than Rivera.

Again I would like to remind you that I am not saying Mariano wasn't great. I am refuting the idea that "He's a once in a lifetime talent". The game is changing and Kimbrel is a sign of this.

On this subject of the game changing here is an interesting article from earlier this week:

http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/news...a1drgug56ipj9x