|
|
#1
|
||||
|
||||
Quote:
What I said was that he is NOT Hall of Fame material, but that if he had had a few more great years (like he did from 2004-2010) his overall performance would have been higher, and then he would have been HOF material. Which sounds a lot like what you just wrote. Unless you are saying that someone who hits 40 homers, 35 doubles, and walks 100 times a year can NEVER be HOF material--no matter how many times he does it--so long as he's slow and strikes out a lot. Which may be a legitimate point of view, although it might mean we'd have to kick out people like Ralph Kiner and Harmon Killebrew. (Killebrew, by the way, has stats that are somewhat comparable to Dunn in his prime, but Killebrew maintained the high level of play for longer.) But again, I specifically said that Dunn is not HOF material. Just that he could have been. Last edited by pbspelly; 09-02-2014 at 02:52 PM. |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
I would add Reggie Jackson to that list too. Reggie only made it to 500 homers by playing 4 more seasons after hitting .194 for the Angels in 1983. He is as much of a compiler as anyone but was voted in first ballot and by 93 percent of voters.
I don't think Dunn is a HOFer either but I like him and think his abilities should be more respected than they are. He was only 4 homers away (two straight seasons of 38) from hitting 40 homers seven years in a row. Only Babe Ruth has ever done that in the history of the game. Last edited by packs; 09-02-2014 at 01:03 PM. |
#3
|
||||
|
||||
Also, I think it's great that Dunn was almost able to do one thing that Babe Ruth did, and I also am gleaning from this thread, that everyone is in agreement that Dunn can hit a lot of HR's. If HR's were the only aspect of baseball that counted, then Dunn would be a HOF'er for sure.
Ruth lifetime batting average: .342 Dunn lifetime batting average: .237
__________________
$co++ Forre$+ |
#4
|
||||
|
||||
Quote:
EDITED TO ADD: Also, Dunn never even led his league in HRs, while Killebrew led the MAJORS in HR three times, tied for first one year and finished 1 behind Mays in another.
__________________
If we are to have another contest in the near future of our national existence, I predict that the dividing line will not be Mason and Dixon's but between patriotism and intelligence on the one side, and superstition, ambition and ignorance on the other. - Ulysses S. Grant, military commander, 18th US President. Last edited by nolemmings; 09-02-2014 at 02:00 PM. |
#5
|
|||
|
|||
Quote:
Dunn may have never led the league in HRs, but I would bet my left testicle that he never used PEDs either. |
#6
|
||||
|
||||
So far, the tally:
Not a HOFer: 100+?? a HOFer if he hits 500HR: 1 A brave man stands alone.
__________________
My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. |
#7
|
|||
|
|||
101+, no way is Dunn a HOFer, not even close...
|
#8
|
||||
|
||||
I agree that Adam Dunn is not a Hall of Fame caliber player, but to say it's "not even close" is a bit of a stretch in my opinion.
|
#9
|
||||
|
||||
Adam Dunn reached the 40 HR mark five times, once in the AL where he finished behind Bautista, Hamilton, Encarnacion and Curtis Granderson - hardly juicers row.
On one of the four occasions in the NL, Dunn didn't finish in the top 10 in MLB, and couldn't even pass Carlos Beltran or Andruw Jones (among others) in his own league. The three other times he fell short of Adrian Beltre, Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols, not Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa. Other seasons he chased the likes of Mark Reynolds, Derek Lee, Paul Konerko, Carlos Pena, Adrian Gonzalez and Prince Fielder. His failure to rise to the top of his own league much less all of MLB is not a story attributed others' PED use.
__________________
If we are to have another contest in the near future of our national existence, I predict that the dividing line will not be Mason and Dixon's but between patriotism and intelligence on the one side, and superstition, ambition and ignorance on the other. - Ulysses S. Grant, military commander, 18th US President. |
#10
|
||||
|
||||
You may be correct. I didn't spend a lot of time analyzing the numbers.
Last edited by pbspelly; 09-02-2014 at 03:13 PM. |
#11
|
|||
|
|||
Hypothetical Question
I've stated that if this is indeed Dunn's last year, then he doesn't make the HOF. But let's say this isn't Dunn's last year. Let's say he goes on to play 3 more years and averages 30 HRs a year and finishes his career with around 550 HRs. Is he a HOFer then?
|
#12
|
|||
|
|||
Dunn not making the cut aside, I don't see how someone can say that if a player hits home runs well that doesn't warrant a HOF induction. Until the very recent past there was a number of home runs you could hit and make the HOF automatically.
Last edited by packs; 09-02-2014 at 03:41 PM. |
#13
|
||||
|
||||
Quote:
Quote:
David - I'm not trying to be contentious here. I think that Dunn's batting average could suck, but there could be other things he does, above and beyond what the other 500+ guys did, that could make up for it. For example, if he was a great-fielding second-baseman, or stole bases and scored a lot of runs. I think his OBP is worth considering, but I don't think that's enough.
__________________
$co++ Forre$+ Last edited by Runscott; 09-02-2014 at 04:35 PM. |
#14
|
|||
|
|||
Quote:
|
#15
|
|||
|
|||
Quote:
Speaking of great fielders, look at Ozzie Smith. He sure didn't get in on his offensive numbers. He was known as a great defensive player - look at all the Gold Gloves. What did he do offensively? Not jack! He's has 2460 hits, only 28 career home runs, 793 RBIs, a .262 lifetime batting average. Had he been just a mediocre third baseman defensively, he would not be in the HOF. In other words, he got in ONLY on his defensive skills. He was a one trick pony. I realize we're talking about 2 different position players, but my point is this. Why does Smith get in with only one set of skills, but not Dunn? |
#16
|
|||
|
|||
Quote:
|
#17
|
|||
|
|||
Quote:
I don't believe that same number will be used to measure players that used PEDs. But for players that didn't use PEDs (and I truly belive Dunn has not), I believe that is still the magic number. I believe that any player that hits 500 HRs and is not associated with PEDs should automatically make the HOF regardless of any other statistics. If you disagree, that is fine. That's just my opinion. |
#18
|
||||
|
||||
Quote:
__________________
My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. |
#19
|
||||
|
||||
Quote:
I respect that you are an Adam Dunn fan. I think he's been a great power hitter, and I also think he's been more than just a power hitter with the walks he's taken. And I think if he reaches 500 home runs without taking any PEDs in an era when many did, he is to be commended. But I still don't think he's a Hall of Famer. If he manages to hit 500 home runs, he did it by being one of the top home run hitters in the Majors for quite some time. But he was never the best home run hitter. He never led the American league in runs, home runs, RBI, average, slugging average, OBP, or OPS. Not once. In 14 seasons, he never led his league in any of the premier hitting metrics. He's never won an MVP. But not only has he not won an MVP, he's never finished in the top 5 of any MVP vote. He's never finished in the top 10, or the top 15, or even the top 20 of any MVP vote. His best finish in an MVP race was 21st in 2010. That means every single one of the fourteen years he played, the Baseball Writers thought there were at least 20 other players in the American League...not even in all of baseball, but just in the American League, that were better than Adam Dunn. Adam Dunn has never won a Silver Slugger. That means he was never even the best power hitter at his position in the American League. There was always somebody better. There just isn't anything remarkable about Dunn's career. He gets points for longevity, and consistency. I am a baseball fanatic. I watch 100 games at least every year. I watch the races. I read the newspaper. I subscribe to Baseball America, and MLB.tv, and watch the MLB channel religiously. At no time in the near decade and a half since Adam Dunn has been a Major Leaguer did I consider him a superstar, or Hall of Fame worthy. Again, he walks more than people probably were aware of. But besides the walks, Dunn is a home run hitter with a nearly 35% career strikeout rate. There isn't anything more to him. You know how many 30 home run seasons there have been between 2001 and 2014? 371 Hitting 30 home runs is good. It is nothing special, however. What about 40 home run seasons? There have been 83 40 home run seasons between 2001 and 2014. Ok, that's, of course, tougher to do. Dunn appears on this list six times. Dunn's best season is good for 33rd on the list of best individual home run seasons since 2001. There have been 13 seasons of 50 or more home runs. But typically, people that hit a lot of home runs and make the Hall of Fame did other things well. Mays and Aaron, Ruth, Frank Robinson, Mike Schmidt, Jimmie Foxx, Willie McCovey, Ted Williams, Ernie Banks, Eddie Matthews, Ken Griffey Jr, Barry Bonds. The other guys were great hitters. Some were elite fielders. Most of them were the best players in baseball at least once or twice in their career. Dunn never finished in the top 20 of any MVP vote! Adam Dunn should, and will be remembered as a great power hitter. But he wasn't, at least in my educated opinion, an elite baseball player. He could hit the ball out of the park. When he wasn't hitting a home run, he really wasn't contributing to his team much in an other way. I just don't see him in Cooperstown. Edit: by the way, JAWS (Jaffe War Score System) has Adam Dunn listed as the 133rd best left fielder of all-time.
__________________
Building these sets: T206, 1953 Bowman Color, 1975 Topps. Great transactions with: piedmont150, Cardboard Junkie, z28jd, t206blogcom, tinkertoeverstochance, trobba, Texxxx, marcdelpercio, t206hound, zachs, tolstoi, IronHorse 2130, AndyG09, BBT206, jtschantz, lug-nut, leaflover, Abravefan11, mpemulis, btcarfagno, BlueSky, and Frankbmd. Last edited by the 'stache; 09-05-2014 at 12:42 AM. |
#20
|
|||
|
|||
Bill,
Thank you for taking the time to answer my question while others overlooked it. Although it was a hypothetical question (but a realistic possibility), I thought it was a valid question. You may be right, 550 HRs may not be enough to get him into Cooperstown, who knows? But regardless of all his other stats (low BA, all the SO, etc), there has to be a point where they have to let him in just because of the number of home runs overshadows all the other stats. For example if he ends up playing another 5 years (puts him at 39 years old - again a realistic possibility) averaging 30 HRs a year, he would end up in the ballpark of 600 HRs. I don't think you can keep him out at that point, I don't care if his BA drops to .200 and he SO on every 4/5 ABs. 600 HR is HOF worthy no matter what (again not considering PED issues) in my opinion. I get what you're saying about no MVP, SS, GG, etc. But there are other players in the HOF that never one any of those titles either. Look at Nolan Ryan. He never won a CY, won only 20 or more games twice in his 27 years, an ERA title only once and lost more games than he won 7 years. Yeah, he won 324 games in his career, but when you consider he played for 27 years, that's only 12 wins a year. He never had any of the accolades that you're (and others) saying Dunn never had. Don't get me wrong, I love Ryan and think he is great. We're from the same home town and I even played ball with his oldest son. But all I'm saying is that all of these titles you're (and others) saying Dunn has never won, well the same can be said for many HOFers. Regards, David Quote:
|
#21
|
||||
|
||||
The last two posts are, in my opinion, the clearest (and most civilized) articulations of the two sides of the Adam Dunn HOF issue that I've read so far. We ought to just erase all the other posts--including my many longwinded and argumentative comments--and close the thread, agreeing that there are differences of opinion over Adam Dunn's value and what truly makes someone HOF-worthy.
|
#22
|
||||
|
||||
No problem, David.
Regarding Nolan Ryan, I don't put a lot of weight in his win-loss record. He played for so many bad teams. I'd be willing to bet he was on more losing teams than winning ones. Maybe I'll look at that later tonight. But some of the best pitchers today, like Felix Hernandez and Clayton Kershaw, only have a few 20 win seasons between them, and that's not because of anything they've done. A great pitcher can win fewer games than a good pitcher if that good pitcher has a great defense, and a really potent offense behind them. In 1987, Nolan Ryan led the National League with a 2.87 ERA, in strikeouts, in Fip, in strikeouts per 9 innings pitched, in K:BB ratio, and ERA +. But he was 8-16. Those numbers don't reconcile in my brain. Ryan has more strikeouts, and more no hitters than anybody in history, and really, there's nobody close to either figure. He has an 839 strikeout lead, and the guy he leads is retired. And the nearest active strikeout pitcher is more than 3,300 strikeouts behind Ryan. And while Dunn didn't lead in any major category, Ryan led his league in strikeouts 11 times, and ERA twice. He holds the single season strikeout record, too, with 383. And he never won a Cy Young, but he finished in the top 5 in Cy Young voting six times. Also, his 6.6 hits per 9 innings pitched is the best ever. And he did that while pitching 5,386 innings. I don't know what Adam Dunn would have to do to get in. I don't think there's anything he can do. Even if he hit 600 home runs, I don't think he gets in. He's playing in an era where home runs are plentiful. His one claim to fame is home runs, but he's never been the best at it. Every year, there was at least one guy better than him. He finished second in the league in home runs three times. Third once. Fourth twice. Fifth twice. So again, he was pretty good, but never the best. If he were a big time run producer, that might be a little easier to overlook. But he's not even that great an RBI guy. He's hit 462 homers, and driven in 1,162 runs. He's driven in 700 other base runners besides himself. If you look at the first two 500 home run guys he'll meet if he gets to 500, here's how they'll match up RBI-wise. Adam Dunn 462 home runs, 1,162* RBI Eddie Murray 504 home runs, 1,917 RBI Gary Sheffield 509 home runs, 1,676 RBI Say Dunn plays one more year, hits 38 home runs, and drives in 100 RBI. He's at 1,262. He's 414 RBI behind Sheffield, and 655 behind Murray. Dunn's best RBI seasons are as follows: 106 RBI 2007 105 RBI 2009 103 RBI 2010 102 RBI 2004 101 RBI 2005 100 RBI 2008 Why are his RBI totals so low? Adam Dunn is a career .225 hitter with runners in scoring position. He is a .229 career hitter in high leverage situations. He is a career .237 hitter in medium leverage situations, and a .242 career hitter in low leverage situations. You want your power hitters to perform well in high leverage situations. Quote:
__________________
Building these sets: T206, 1953 Bowman Color, 1975 Topps. Great transactions with: piedmont150, Cardboard Junkie, z28jd, t206blogcom, tinkertoeverstochance, trobba, Texxxx, marcdelpercio, t206hound, zachs, tolstoi, IronHorse 2130, AndyG09, BBT206, jtschantz, lug-nut, leaflover, Abravefan11, mpemulis, btcarfagno, BlueSky, and Frankbmd. |
#23
|
||||
|
||||
I have no idea how you made that leap of logic from what I posted.
__________________
$co++ Forre$+ |
#24
|
||||
|
||||
Quote:
You wrote that Dunn had some great years and hit a lot of homers yet his "overall performance" was not HOF-worthy. So the question is, what does the word "overall" mean. It either means (a) his overall career stats, in other words, the number of great years where he hit a lot of homers, or (b) his overall skillset (his game apart from homers and doubles and walks). Since I conceded in my original post that he had not had enough great seasons, it seemed that you had to be arguing that his overall skillset was not HOF-worthy, not that he hadn't had enough great years. In which case, you are saying that averaging 40 homers, 35 doubles, and 100 walks a year (Dunn during his prime) does not make you a Hall of Famer if the rest of your overall performance is unexceptional. Which is a perfectly legitimate point of view. Just not one that I share. Last edited by pbspelly; 09-02-2014 at 03:14 PM. |
#25
|
||||
|
||||
Rather than dealing with exactly what I said, you added "Unless you are saying". Now you are stating "You wrote that..." There is no need to put words in my mouth - I was saying exactly what I said - no straw man, no twists, just plain simple English. So we disagree - no big deal. The HOF if full of guys who shouldn't be there - add Adam Dunn. What the heck.
__________________
$co++ Forre$+ |
#26
|
||||
|
||||
Quote:
whatever |
#27
|
|||
|
|||
Quote:
Killebrew won an MVP, Dunn hasn't. Killebrew was in the top 5 in MVP voting 6 times, Dunn never has been. Killebrew was an 11-time AS, Dunn was twice. Killebrew was a 6-time HR champ, Dunn never has been. Killebrew was a 3-time RBI champ, Dunn never has been. Killebrew was in the top 5 in RBI 9 times, Dunn never has been. Killebrew was in the top 5 in SA 10 times, Dunn was once. Killebrew's BA was 3 points below the league average, Dunn's is 30 below. Killebrew's SA was 116 points above the league average, Dunn's is 66 above. Killebrew's OPS was 160 points above the league average, Dunn's is 94 above. Killebrew led the league in strikeouts just once to Dunn's 4 times Killebrew was in the top 5 in SO only 5 times to Dunn's 11 Dunn has struck out an incredible 64% more frequently than Killebrew (despite Harmon's hit-or-miss reputation, his strikeout frequency was only 3 percentage points higher than the league average during his career) My favorite stat for Harmon is one I've never seen published anywhere: In 10 different seasons he hit 25 or more home runs in an 82 games or fewer stretch, with 33 in 81 games in 1964, 30 in 82 games in both 1959 and 1969, and 29 in just 75 games in 1967. |
#28
|
||||
|
||||
I will concede that Killebrew was a better player. Certainly over his career.
My point was about individual seasons in their prime. Take a look below at typical seasons in their prime and see if you can tell which are Dunn and which are Killebrew and you'll see what I meant. 106 runs, 20 doubles, 2 triples, 49 hrs, 140 rbi, 145 walks, 84 strikeouts, .427 on base pctg, .585 slugging average 107 runs, 34 doubles, 0 triples, 46 hrs, 102 rbi, 108 walks, 195 strikeouts, .388 on base pctg, .569 slugging avg 79 runs, 23 doubles, 0 triples, 40 hrs, 100 rbi, 122 walks, 164 strikeouts, .386 obp, .513 sa 85 runs, 21 doubles, 1 triple, 48 hrs, 126 rbi, 106 walks, 142 strikeouts, .366 obp, .545 sa |
|
|
Similar Threads | ||||
Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
What Are the Chances? | barrysloate | Watercooler Talk- ALL sports talk | 12 | 09-23-2012 07:43 AM |
Joe Dunn in a Jack Dunn Slab | bjcunningham | Net54baseball Vintage (WWII & Older) Baseball Cards & New Member Introductions | 5 | 09-12-2011 10:34 PM |
What are the chances? | tlwise12 | Net54baseball Sports (Primarily) Vintage Memorabilia Forum incl. Game Used | 2 | 03-09-2011 12:23 AM |
What can ruin a card's grade? Show them here! | SethY | Net54baseball Vintage (WWII & Older) Baseball Cards & New Member Introductions | 26 | 01-23-2010 06:25 PM |
Chances | Archive | Net54baseball Sports (Primarily) Vintage Memorabilia Forum incl. Game Used | 1 | 12-13-2008 06:30 PM |