Same cert #, DIFFERENT flips and cards (52 Topps Mantle)

[calvindog]

Originally Posted by MattyC

To get a real Mantle 311 centered like this ebay example, one has to man up and pay much stronger than the 17k or whatever this seller will accept. At auction this card-- if it were legit-- would need a 20-25k bid to be in contention at the final seconds.

That card is a 4 -- and a pretty damn spectacular SGC 5.5 just sold for 29 and change in Goodwin. Maybe one doesn't have to use his balls but just his brain to get such a card for a good price?

[Ksquared]

I don't think the flip looks right for two reasons:

1- the word "topps" in 1952 topps doesn't line up over the name like Matt's card. All other examples i've looked at on VCP and ebay line up like Matt's card.

2- i always scan the bar code on cards that I have questions about. Take a bar code scanner app and scan Matt's card. You'll get a reading back that matches his cert#. Scan the other card and you get a string of numbers that don't match.

I don't think it's real.

Jim

[team-of-rivals]

Originally Posted by Ksquared

I don't think the flip looks right for two reasons:

1- the word "topps" in 1952 topps doesn't line up over the name like Matt's card. All other examples i've looked at on VCP and ebay line up like Matt's card.

2- i always scan the bar code on cards that I have questions about. Take a bar code scanner app and scan Matt's card. You'll get a reading back that matches his cert#. Scan the other card and you get a string of numbers that don't match.

I don't think it's real.

Jim

+1

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Ksquared

I don't think the flip looks right for two reasons:

1- the word "topps" in 1952 topps doesn't line up over the name like Matt's card. All other examples i've looked at on VCP and ebay line up like Matt's card.

2- i always scan the bar code on cards that I have questions about. Take a bar code scanner app and scan Matt's card. You'll get a reading back that matches his cert#. Scan the other card and you get a string of numbers that don't match.

I don't think it's real.

Jim

What happens if you scan the card in his first auction?

[Ksquared]

that flip looks better to me when I look at the font and lettering and spacing. But when I scan the bar code, i don't get a match. I scanned it a few times but didn't get a match.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Some of these must be centered? Admit I haven't checked them all. But it seems a bit ambitious to say this 4, with all that corner wear, is a 20-25K card now.

Latest Auction Prices for: PSA 4 - Average Price: $13,491.83


4/27/14 eBay Auction | Image just_collect c***4 31 $15,585.00
12/22/13 eBay Auction | Image sltnofswatcolecter u***r 25 $13,000.00
11/16/13 Goodwin Image 9 $11,890.50
3/3/13 eBay Image calembeeandme f***h 1 $10,300.00
1/1/13 eBay Image memorylaneinc c***a Best Offer $12,000.00
12/25/12 eBay Image outtasite22 a***b 15 $7,100.00
12/13/12 eBay Image sammyweng a***a 28 $9,789.89
11/19/12 eBay Image 1bostonsports s***t BIN $10,255.00
11/18/12 Goldin Image 10 $12,973.40
10/30/12 eBay Image blipchop t***c 11 $8,099.99
9/3/12 eBay Image prewarcardcollector w***m 48 $11,700.00
7/27/12 Greg Bussineau Image 13 $10,680.00
5/20/12 SCP Auctions Image 13 $11,306.40
5/13/12 REA Image 20 $10,072.50
4/15/12 eBay Image mlbfan07 b***b 56 $13,050.00
4/15/12 eBay Image wchappell s***r BIN $13,250.00
4/12/12 eBay Image yooper! i***e Best Offer $10,600.00
2/23/12 eBay Image bordinchick 3***v 40 $11,400.00
1/29/12 eBay Image antiquesandmore100 n***n 2 $10,256.60
12/3/11 eBay Image yooper! c***s Best Offer $12,500.00
10/17/11 eBay Image tbh39 1***0 Best Offer $13,000.00
8/28/11 eBay Image 7983christopher p***2 Best Offer $8,900.00
6/24/11 eBay Image auctionfvr i***k 24 $10,000.50
6/8/11 eBay Image tomh22 b***0 Best Offer $9,000.00
5/1/11 eBay Image nolifecollector k***l 23 $9,867.67

[MattyC]

Peter, quoting dated auction data is misleading. VCP is a great guide but it's still in the past. If you bid 13k for the next dead-centered 4 with a good image, you will lose the card. Take my advice or don't, it's all good. If we are talking a legit seller with a dead centered card that has no central image issues and standard corner wear, I'm bidding hard and I know three other buddies who also are-- north of 17 for sure.

The last 4 jumped up a good bit, hit 15.5, and was centered way high with tilt. Perfect centering takes it to baseline 17k, and from there it's just competition so who knows. Just my two cents and I have no crystal ball; would love to buy several for 13k and hold them.

[MattyC]

Originally Posted by calvindog

That card is a 4 -- and a pretty damn spectacular SGC 5.5 just sold for 29 and change in Goodwin. Maybe one doesn't have to use his balls but just his brain to get such a card for a good price?

That SGC 5.5 is nowhere near as nicely centered as this fake 4. And PSA slabs sell for more. When the next PSA 4 centered like this fake one surfaces, you bid under 20k and tell me if you win it. You won't. All the brains in the world won't create a reality where a centered PSA 4 with clean surface sells for 17k. I'd bid 20 myself.

[calvindog]

Originally Posted by MattyC

That SGC 5.5 is nowhere near as nicely centered as this fake 4. And PSA slabs sell for more. When the next PSA 4 centered like this fake one surfaces, you bid under 20k and tell me if you win it. You won't. All the brains in the world won't create a reality where a centered PSA 4 with clean surface sells for 17k. I'd bid 20 myself.

Did you not see the corners on the SGC 5.5? They're sharp, not mushy. That's why the card is a 5.5 and not a 4.

As for your comment that you'll be "bidding hard" on the next centered 4, trust me, everyone on the board knows.

[MattyC]

Calvin-- if you like a sharp corner over centering, hey, to each his own. But there's a group of collectors who place an enormous premium of centering, especially for the 311. Sometimes I wish I wasn't one of them. But I love the rare dead centered card that is usually OC, and will happily collect as many as I can. It's no different than a group of guys who love 1975 mini commons and bid some up to 1k in heated competition. It's a small subset but they are passionate and active, and there's nothin wrong with that.

[calvindog]

Lolol

[Ksquared]

looking at VCP, this card (cert#) sold twice:

9/30/09 for $13,200 at a Huggins and Scott auction
8/28/11 for $8,900 on ebay

the flip and bar code look the same as this image (link #1) as best I can tell. the bar code scans correctly for the two listed with this cert on VCP. kept trying the image on ebay for this auction but still can't get it to read the cert#. i'm not sure if it is the clarity of the scan or a bad flip.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Over the short term a few guys or even one guy can drive up the price of anything, but over the long term -- especially if the buyers become sellers -- I am skeptical. So I would place more faith in stable historical prices than recent aberrations, myself. But that's just me -- a guy who can't see paying 2x for a card no matter what the eye appeal.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Over the short term a few guys or even one guy can drive up the price of anything, but over the long term -- especially if the buyers become sellers -- I am skeptical. So I would place more faith in stable historical prices than recent aberrations, myself. But that's just me -- a guy who can't see paying 2x for a card no matter what the eye appeal.

Not 2x usually but how about 1.25x to 1.35x ?

I think we go from seeing examples of cards that don't have good eye appeal selling for 50%-75% of a decent one, so that swing over on a great one, isn't unrealistic to me.

[calvindog]

Moral of this thread: when you keep needing to publicly convince yourself that you didn't wildly overpay for a card you love -- you've wildly overpaid for a card you love. Which isn't necessarily a bad thing unless you now can't pay for food or shelter.

[itjclarke]

Originally Posted by calvindog

Did you not see the corners on the SGC 5.5? They're sharp, not mushy. That's why the card is a 5.5 and not a 4.

Originally Posted by MattyC

-- if you like a sharp corner over centering, hey, to each his own. But there's a group of collectors who place an enormous premium of centering, especially for the 311

I naturally lean corners/image over centering (been that way for 20+ years and feel no urge to change)... but in general to me- cards, sets, different images and examples are way too varied to lock into any one or even two pre-established traits before seeing them. I always thought I was weird when I had trouble giving simple answers to the "what's your type?" question about girls. Then as I got older I realized that until I had met and talked to each one, it didn't matter what color her hair or eyes were if all the individual pieces fit together well. Often times you surprise yourself and that can be the most fun! This is exactly how I feel about cards, and several strong traits can almost always outweigh one negative IMO (key being my "O", so not trying to sway anyone). Put more simply- if it looks good to me when I see it, I like it.

From what I read, my version of "eye appeal" may not align with the majority here (maybe a good poll question?), and my OC cards may be dinged if I were to auction them off.. but I like them and I'm not planning to sell them. Here's a few favs...