How will the impending lockout effect The Hobby?

[Seven]

With Jeff Passan, reporting that neither side of the table is even close to having meaningful conversations, let alone an agreement, one has to think that should we lockout, the Hobby might be effected in a negative way.

The last time a lockout occurred, the Hobby suffered deeply. Assuming one happens again I do not think the dropoff will be as significant, as COVID more or less caused all collecting to take on a life of its own. I think modern takes most of the brunt, but I do think Vintage sees a small pullback should any sort of delay takes place. Which I think is possible. If spring training is delayed than that will be the real indicator.

[Carter08]

Gut feeling is I’m not seeing how it would help in any way but also don’t think it will affect much. Interest in Cy, Ty, Ruth, Aaron, etc seems almost completely untethered to today’s game.

[Wanaselja]

Originally Posted by Carter08

Gut feeling is I’m not seeing how it would help in any way but also don’t think it will affect much. Interest in Cy, Ty, Ruth, Aaron, etc seems almost completely untethered to today’s game.

Yeah, I don’t see the blue chip stuff pulling back. As much as I’d love to see I’d be pretty surprised if it did.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by Carter08

Gut feeling is I’m not seeing how it would help in any way but also don’t think it will affect much. Interest in Cy, Ty, Ruth, Aaron, etc seems almost completely untethered to today’s game.

I think the Ruth's, Gehrigs, Cobbs, and Mantles of the world stay the way they are for the most part. I think modern would most likely get hit the hardest. I could see the lower tier of Hall of Famers, who did see some moderate increases fall back to earth.

[egri]

My first thought was that modern would be impacted if we lose part of the season, but we lost over 100 games in 2020, and prices still went crazy. I realize we're not as locked down now as back then, but with this new variant, who knows?

[mrreality68]

Unless we lose the entire season I do not believe the collection industry will be hurt
1. Fanatics buying Topps means they believe on the industry and they are investing pretty heavy to get into it
2. So much new money coming into the hobby that it is no longer a true hobby and becoming more of a commodity like stocks and also less impacted
3. Vintage minimal to no impact while modern has more to lose but enough cards and enough activity to cover for an extended period
4. So much no interest, new stories and news about the industry and with each auction when a top level card goes for top dollar more people see it and more get the “investment” bug

[Peter_Spaeth]

I think it will affect people who spend a lot of money gambling on young players with the hope of flipping them if they get hot. I doubt that's a huge portion of the hobby and in any case the impact will be temporary.

I guess too if it looks like a long work stoppage, it could affect Trout's values, as his career prospects have already started to dim a bit missing so many games.

Is there anyone on a milestone quest that would seriously be impacted by loss of a big part of a season, not sure.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by egri

My first thought was that modern would be impacted if we lose part of the season, but we lost over 100 games in 2020, and prices still went crazy. I realize we're not as locked down now as back then, but with this new variant, who knows?

I think most people are willing to combat the latest variant. I can't speak for other states, but here in NY cases of Omicron are through the roof, yet Restaurants, Schools, Businesses really aren't slowing down for the most part.

Peter I would agree, the prospect flippers, would probably be effected most by this. With our transition from a Hobby to an Asset Class, I think modern has the most to lose.

[jburl]

If Pujols can convince someone to give him another year, he can continue his quest for 700 HR. Striking distance of Babe on the RBI list. Missing the season would hurt his chances of another season.

Sent from my SM-G781U using Tapatalk

[todeen]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I think it will affect people who spend a lot of money gambling on young players with the hope of flipping them if they get hot. I doubt that's a huge portion of the hobby and in any case the impact will be temporary.

I guess too if it looks like a long work stoppage, it could affect Trout's values, as his career prospects have already started to dim a bit missing so many games.

Is there anyone on a milestone quest that would seriously be impacted by loss of a big part of a season, not sure.

Isn't Miguel Cabrera within striking distance of a new milestone?

Edit: 13 hits from 3k, 3 doubles to 600.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using Tapatalk

[todeen]

I wanted to add, I said it in another thread, I hope the lockout lasts into the season or wipes out the season. I am a fan of the modern game, and it has some real underlying problems that need to be addressed. Cough*tanking*cough

Since I collect players of my youth, I'm not very concerned about the latest new products and when or how they are released. However, I could see prices for lower tier HOF increasing in price due to flipping, similar to Rickey Henderson RC.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using Tapatalk

[jchcollins]

I'd love for it to mean that vintage takes a nosedive, and certain cards I want / need become wildly affordable again. But we all know that ain't happening.

[jsfriedm]

On its own I'm not sure it would impact high-end vintage too much, but combined with a significant Fed pullback causing a fall in asset prices, I think the impact could be significant.

[Rich Klein]

If History of 1994-95 is any guide AND this lasts a long-time expect vintage (to loosely mean 2005 or back to have a nice bump in interest and people collect the cards of earlier eras.

I know that's not everyone's definition of vintage but I'm going with the historical precedent here

Rich

[Snapolit1]

If those overpriced cry babies go on strike again that will be the last straw. Prices on cards will plunge. Baseball is dying already and no one cares. Another labor action will probably be the end of the national pastime as we know it. Kids today don't care about the game already. Most fans never came back after the last strike. One more strike like that and you wont be able to give away tickets to games.



(None of the above is true. Not one word of it. But I thought maybe I will save some other person from having to write it.)

[JollyElm]

Let me just say this. I had no idea that a lockout was even happening, and besides my Mets, I barely know the names of any other current major leaguers, so it's not going to have an affect on me at all. There are probably a helluva lot of other collectors who are in the same boat.

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

If those overpriced cry babies go on strike again that will be the last straw. Prices on cards will plunge. Baseball is dying already and no one cares.

Edited to remove everything I said, as I obviously did not read to Steve's last line. Well put...

[doug.goodman]

I don't collect much (if anything) that involves players who are currently locked out, and who could potentially go on strike after their lockout ends.

So, it won't really change anything about the hobby for me.

Doug

[Rich Klein]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

If those overpriced cry babies go on strike again that will be the last straw. Prices on cards will plunge. Baseball is dying already and no one cares. Another labor action will probably be the end of the national pastime as we know it. Kids today don't care about the game already. Most fans never came back after the last strike. One more strike like that and you wont be able to give away tickets to games.



(None of the above is true. Not one word of it. But I thought maybe I will save some other person from having to write it.)

Just as a factual note; The OWNERS have LOCKED OUT the players. Please place blame on those who deserve this stoppage.

[bmattioli]

https://springtrainingcountdown.com/

[doug.goodman]

Originally Posted by bmattioli

https://springtrainingcountdown.com/

The only app I have on my phone

[Seven]

Originally Posted by Rich Klein

Just as a factual note; The OWNERS have LOCKED OUT the players. Please place blame on those who deserve this stoppage.

I'm pro player I will say this though, it does get tiring about Millionaires, yelling at Billionaires though. Too much money has permeated the sport, (all sports really, and a handful of other things in life as well, but I'll keep the discussion on topic)

Related, what angers me the most are the things the guys in the Minors have to go through. I've read some horror stories, from wages, to lodgings, to means of travel. Is it so much to ask for the owners to pony up, and treat the minor leagues a bit better? Absolutely ridiculous. Though I hear the most recent agreement has made things a bit more livable for the players in the lower levels.

[Snapolit1]

It's a fascinating aspect of American culture that the man on the street always takes the side of the billionaire against the millionaire. Every time.

[Snapolit1]

And I saw an interesting statistic recently that only 30% or so of major leaguers (can't remember the precise number) are actually making a million dollars.

[doug.goodman]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

And I saw an interesting statistic recently that only 30% or so of major leaguers (can't remember the precise number) are actually making a million dollars.

Doesn't surprise me. There are certainly many more making the minimum (or pretty close) than there are making 8 figures.

I have a buddy who made it to the bigs with the Tigers and Red Sox, if you include the time he spent in the minors and before, doing what he needed to do to make it to the bigs for little or no pay, I made more money in the same time frame as a roadie for bands you guys never heard of than he made as a professional baseball player.

But, he had Topps baseball cards, and I don't, so he wins.

[Exhibitman]

The only thing I know for sure about the lockout is that Clayton Kershaw will spend at least 60 days of it on the DL.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

The only thing I know for sure about the lockout is that Clayton Kershaw will spend at least 60 days of it on the DL.

And DeGrom more than that, and Trout all of it.

[Wanaselja]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

It's a fascinating aspect of American culture that the man on the street always takes the side of the billionaire against the millionaire. Every time.

One of many baffling aspects.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

It's a fascinating aspect of American culture that the man on the street always takes the side of the billionaire against the millionaire. Every time.

I don't want to be misunderstood, the Owners are the problem with this situation. Everything from how they abuse the luxury tax policies (from treating it as a salary cap, to just pocketing the money from revenue sharing), to manipulating players service time, to colluding to keep certain players out of the game (You're telling me no team could've used Bonds in 08?), the list goes on. I'm vehemently pro player, without them, well there is no baseball.

[Casey2296]

Every thread needs a card.
-

[Johnny630]

I think baseball will start on time without the lock out affecting any of the regular season.

[doug.goodman]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

The only thing I know for sure about the lockout is that Clayton Kershaw will spend at least 60 days of it on the DL.

Harsh! Hahahaha

[Leon]

A lockout would make no different at all to me. I never came back from the '94 one. I don't think it will affect vintage cards if there is one.

and a card...
.

[FrankWakefield]

A continued lockout will affect old card prices.


Stop and think about it... when you initially started collecting cards, what were they. I don't think any of us would answer T206s, Old Judge's or American Caramels. Most likely, we started with cards contemporary with when we starting. For me, I bought a very few packs of 1964 Topps... in 1964. In 1965, I bought a bunch of cards, all 1965 Topps. And in 1965, as I could bicycle over to a contemporary collector friend's house, I could then trade cards. And he had some cards handed down from his older brother... wow, there were ballcards from 1959. I traded for a very few 1963 cards. And it would be 20 years more before I collected anything old enough to be of interest here on this board.


The point is, the collectors of the old cards were initially young collectors of contemporary cards. Some stay with it and eventually get interested in the old cards. Some pause, then come back to the hobby, sometimes with several pauses. Some stop collecting and abandon the hobby.

The lockout will sour some of the potential new collectors of the old stuff. I'm not saying the lockout will be significant or disastrous for the vintage market; but to think there will be no effect seems naive to me.

The lockout will really screw up players who were looking for "one more year" (like Wainright and Molina), it'll screw up everyone: owners, players, retired players, future players, workers at ballparks, parking structures and the like, front office people, StubHub, and others.