Heritage prices are revealing of market (already)

[bravos4evr]

Originally Posted by JustinD

The post war is in a ridiculous boom right now that will not last IMHO. These have numerous precedents of prior boom and busts, all material things follow these rules.

The buying habits of people are fickle and change with the winds. While I do believe the long term investment (even though it is my preferred collection) is leaning toward poor future values on prewar as the interest in those players will wane as the the baby boom generation thins and post war will stay on more steady ground longer. If you are hoping for a temporary boom to get a good ROI on a prewar collection, there will likely be at least a few in the next 10-15 years before the demand from the current largest contingent of prewar collectors (baby boomers) becomes smaller over time.

My personal beliefs are that the majority of cards and sports collectibles are in a unsustainable boom right now. Once the investors drop out and move to the next fad and it is back to a limited actual collector market, thus bringing supply and demand closer in line prices will drop exponentially. I have slowed my purchases as I strongly believe this. I feel a market correction will be within the next few years and I am young enough to be patient. I would rather pause and increase my purchase power at a lower price point.

I think you are half right. I think the CRAZY prices on some post war stuff won't last, but I think the higher prices in general, are caused by the boomers and post boomers getting older and having more disposable income to spend on their idol's cards. I doubt a PSA 9 Rose rookies will stay at $150k (or wtvr) but I think that the prices will stabilize more over time and remain high (as the scarcity of higher grade cards won't increase much, unlike junk era to now, which will push some of the more modern collectors into pre 80's eventually)