Ripple Effect on Vintage

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by T205 GB

examples:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1954-Red-He...torefresh=true


https://lelands.com/bids/bidplace?itemid=87918

I don't see a ton of spillover for a lot of players, but I gets it's somewhat logical that as a crown jewel card goes through the roof others will try to grab say the 2nd or 3rd "most special cards" both (a) assuming they too will rise in price and (b) because they've thrown in the towel on ever owning the crown jewel card. Have seen that with Mantle and maybe some Jackie cards. Not many others. I can't see it with more modern players like Jeter and Trout, who have one or two really rare cards. JMHO.

[KMayUSA6060]

The most comparable cards to the one the skyrockets see the quickest reactionary increase, while cards that have less similarities are still of the subject may take longer to increase.

[T205 GB]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

I don't see a ton of spillover for a lot of players, but I gets it's somewhat logical that as a crown jewel card goes through the roof others will try to grab say the 2nd or 3rd "most special cards" both (a) assuming they too will rise in price and (b) because they've thrown in the towel on ever owning the crown jewel card. Have seen that with mMntle and maybe some Jackie cards. Not many others. I can't see it with more modern players like Jeter and Trout, who have one or two really rare cards. JMHO.

Makes perfect sense.

[Exhibitman]

Of course it can and should be expected to happen: it is an Econ 101 concept, an imperfect substitute good. A substitute good is a good with demand that is increased when the price of another good is increased. Imperfect substitutes have a lesser level of substitutability. If you can’t afford a high grade 1952 Mantle, a lower grade card is an imperfect substitute with a fairly high level of substitutability. If you cannot afford even a beater 1952 Topps Mantle and you want a Mantle card, you might go for a decent 1956 Mantle instead. I think that is what is going on with a lot of collectors. Most of my Mantle cards are low to midgrade because I wasn’t going to pay for a high grade example.

As for other cards, it happens all the time, just not at the high $$/very public profile of the Mantles. When I decided to buy some early Ryan cards, I opted for a 1969 Topps Ryan in really nice condition instead of a 1968 Topps RC. I'd have done the same for Bench except I bought a collection that happened to have a Bench RC in it.

[packs]

What kind of metric could you really produce for a guy like Mantle though? His cards are already at a pretty high tier in comparison to other HOFers like, say, Frank Robinson. If a PSA 10 1957 Topps Robinson rookie sold for big money I really don't think you'll see an increase in the price for 1961 Frank Robinsons. Mantle and players like him are distinct to me in that they're a head above everyone else and different rules apply.

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by packs

What kind of metric could you really produce for a guy like Mantle though? His cards are already at a pretty high tier in comparison to other HOFers like, say, Frank Robinson. If a PSA 10 1957 Topps Robinson rookie sold for big money I really don't think you'll see an increase in the price for 1961 Frank Robinsons. Mantle and players like him are distinct to me in that they're a head above everyone else and different rules apply.

I guess all I would say is that there is a certain demographic of men with the disposable income to spend 85K or 200k or
500K on a card and for many of them their childhood idol was disproportionally Mickey Mantle. They are wealthy and set and they can afford to buy a piece of cardboard that costs as much as a home. Why do a lot of 60 year old men spend big bucks on vintage Camaros and Mustangs. Because it means something to them. No value judgment from me. Mantle is the closest thing to Ruth out there. Iconic. Larger than Life to some. Marilyn Monroe vs Jayne Mansfield. Elvis vs Carl Perkins. Andy Warhol vs whoever.

[packs]

I agree. What I'm trying to say is that there will only ever be a ripple effect for a guy who commands a ripple. I don't think you'll ever see a ripple effect for Enos Slaughter independent of any price any of his cards command on a day. The others won't go up because of a large sale, at least I don't think so.

[conor912]

Originally Posted by packs

I don't think you'll ever see a ripple effect for Enos Slaughter.

My dreams are officially crushed

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by packs

I agree. What I'm trying to say is that there will only ever be a ripple effect for a guy who commands a ripple. I don't think you'll ever see a ripple effect for Enos Slaughter independent of any price any of his cards command on a day. The others won't go up because of a large sale, at least I don't think so.

I agree.

[irv]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

I don't see a ton of spillover for a lot of players, but I gets it's somewhat logical that as a crown jewel card goes through the roof others will try to grab say the 2nd or 3rd "most special cards" both (a) assuming they too will rise in price and (b) because they've thrown in the towel on ever owning the crown jewel card. Have seen that with Mantle and maybe some Jackie cards. Not many others. I can't see it with more modern players like Jeter and Trout, who have one or two really rare cards. JMHO.

I've been watching this one that is posted in modern and it got me thinking, before this thread, now that it is getting out of reach for many, what is/will be the 2nd most popular card of his to start climbing exponentially?
https://www.ebay.com/itm/1993-SP-Foi...la8&rmvSB=true

Doing a quick Google/E-Bay look, I came up with this one but there are a ton of refractor and other current unique cards of his that currently are commanding more money so who knows for sure?
https://www.ebay.com/itm/1993-Pinnac...-/362316090966
https://www.ebay.com/itm/1993-Pinnac...-/352347656463

Likely most of his cards will rise despite the current PWCC one but in my opinion, once word gets out what this one sells/sold for, I think it will speed up considerably.

[T205 GB]

Originally Posted by irv

I've been watching this one that is posted in modern and it got me thinking, before this thread, now that it is getting out of reach for many, what is/will be the 2nd most popular card of his to start climbing exponentially?
https://www.ebay.com/itm/1993-SP-Foi...la8&rmvSB=true

Doing a quick Google/E-Bay look, I came up with this one but there are a ton of refractor and other current unique cards of his that currently are commanding more money so who knows for sure?
https://www.ebay.com/itm/1993-Pinnac...-/362316090966
https://www.ebay.com/itm/1993-Pinnac...-/352347656463

Likely most of his cards will rise despite the current PWCC one but in my opinion, once word gets out what this one sells/sold for, I think it will speed up considerably.

That SP Foil is a tough card in that grade. Regardless the bid history is total BS and the price is bogus.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by irv

I've been watching this one that is posted in modern and it got me thinking, before this thread, now that it is getting out of reach for many, what is/will be the 2nd most popular card of his to start climbing exponentially?
https://www.ebay.com/itm/1993-SP-Foi...la8&rmvSB=true

Doing a quick Google/E-Bay look, I came up with this one but there are a ton of refractor and other current unique cards of his that currently are commanding more money so who knows for sure?
https://www.ebay.com/itm/1993-Pinnac...-/362316090966
https://www.ebay.com/itm/1993-Pinnac...-/352347656463

Likely most of his cards will rise despite the current PWCC one but in my opinion, once word gets out what this one sells/sold for, I think it will speed up considerably.

People will just buy PSA 9s instead or the BGS 9.5s that got rejected by PSA because they were cut small at the factory. That price reflects that only 22 have been graded PSA 10 out of over 100k that were made. Any rise in his cards will be in other grades above 8 of that Jeter and not in other rookie cards with print runs of ~ 1 million. There are ~8600 PSA 8 SP Jeter, so that will always provide a reasonable alternative for someone wanting a Jeter RC.

[Touch'EmAll]

Consider the percentage increase. You can have a $10k card increase $5k to $15k, thats a 50% increase. You can have a $500. card increase $250. to $750, thats the same 50% increase. I have a run of PSA 8 Hank Aaron's. Not that many years ago what used to be a $1k card now is a $2k+ card - over a 100% increase. Am sure PSA 8 Mays' have done the same - extremely well. If on more of a budget, nice for the grade PSA 7's of Hank and Willie could be good current values.