Brown Lenox Prices

[Abravefan11]

The brown Lenox back along with all other tough back T206’s has seen a dramatic price surge in the last year. But unlike other tough back prices that seem to be settling down I believe the brown Lenox prices will continue to rise.

To date just 19 different subjects have been confirmed with this back and only a small number of these have been confirmed with more than one example. The 19 confirmed are just over half of the subjects believed possible so new examples are expected to surface, but the total population will remain low in comparison to other tough T206 backs. The total number of brown Lenox examples known is a fraction of the number of Wagner, Plank or Magie and there are a third more Broad Leaf 460 subjects known.

Many collectors scoff at the brown Lenox as an insignificant color variation; however the brown Lenox are a unique group of cards, printed separately from the also scarce black Lenox. There are fewer examples known of this back than any other T206 back that was distributed in packs.*

In October of 2010 a Lajoie SGC 50 brown Lenox sold for $12,490 and at that time was thought to be a ridiculous price by some. Then in the spring REA auction an Overall PSA 5 sold for $29,375 and in the early hours of this morning a PSA 4 Al Burch sold for $12,334.

Incredible as these prices seem to some, I believe the realized prices especially the Lajoie were great buys. As the legitimacy of the brown Lenox back over the next several years gains more credibility, and the scarcity in relation to all other backs becomes common knowledge, these cards should continue to rise in value.

*The controversial Ty Cobb back is scarcer than brown Lenox however the debate continues as to whether it is a T206 or if the cards were distributed in the product. Brown Old Mill are also believed to be scarcer but were not inserted into packs.

** These are strictly my observations of the current market. I do not own a brown Lenox nor do I have one to sell.

[Leon]

Nice analysis Tim. It seems like once a card breaks a threshold price then the subsequent sales follow suite, ie...the Lajoie we sold in auction. I think, and correct me if I am wrong, that was the first time a Brown Lenox came close to that level.

[calvindog]

Originally Posted by Leon

I think, and correct me if I am wrong, that was the first time a Brown Lenox came close to that level.

All it takes is one demented madman to ruin the pricing on a card.

[wonkaticket]

http://www.scpauctions.com/viewuserd...release_july09

http://www.scpauctions.com/LotDetail...-SGC-30-(1%2f1)

[ullmandds]

That makes...a few demented madmen!!!

[oldjudge]

http://www.scpauctions.com/LotDetail.aspx?lotid=14128

Sorry Jeff! I didn't see that you posted it already

[Ease]

7k a year appreciation. Yikes! T206s are insane sometimes...

[Leon]

I either didn't remember or didn't see the Brown Lenox Bat Off Cobb.

[Cardboard Junkie]

Aloha! I have collectd t206's for many decades.....never much payed much attention to the backs, other than avoiding cards with back damage. While flipping through my 206s I see I have a T206 Al Burch in fielding position with a brown lenox back "factory 30 2nd dist NY. It is a beater with multiple creases but all the print and pic are clear. For a long time I heard that the brown ones were just washed out black ones. The back is dingy and looks a little faded, but I have had it for 30+ yrs so I don't think it was ever deliberately doctored. Would fading do this? Will try to post a pic but I am a computer idiot. dave

[calvindog]

How about the 13K price on the red Hindu M. Brown?

[Abravefan11]

Jeff - The Brown Red Hindu price was strong to say the least, beautiful card regardless and hopefully the buyer is happy, we know the consignor is.

David - I'd love to see an image of your Burch. Please post one if you can. To answer your question fading is not the cause of the brown Lenox backs. It can be difficult to tell the difference in brown and black even in person unless you are familiar with both but the brown is a different color ink.

[Gradedcardman]

I agree with the observation of the backs and the prices. I do not have eidetic memory but have paid very close attention over the last few years as to what is for sale. The brown Lenox and the red Hindus do seem to be very infrequent in auctions. The red Hindu brown was the highest grade red Hindu I have seen of late. I agree with Tim that more of the brown Lenox cards are bound to surface. In the last year I know of at least 3 collections coming out of the closet with very difficult backs included. Exciting times !!

[rhettyeakley]

Originally Posted by Abravefan11

The brown Lenox back along with all other tough back T206’s has seen a dramatic price surge in the last year. But unlike other tough back prices that seem to be settling down I believe the brown Lenox prices will continue to rise...

UNLESS, as a whole people determine that ALL t206 rare backs are overpriced and they all go down in value. I'll 100% admit I understand the draw of the T206 rare backs but at these price levels? I just don't see it continuing indefinitely. T206 rare backs are certainly the "flavor of the month" but there are things priced at a mere fraction of these prices that are rarer and more significant, which baffles me. But, to each their own. I'm not putting anyone down as we all should collect what we like.

[cfc1909]

Brown Lenox Lajoie was the buy of the century for t206 backs. Could not have happened to a better person.

I am sure a few more browns will eventually show up but that will not change its position as the toughest t206 back distributed in packs. The backs reach new levels at just about every auction and Goodwins was no different.

As Tim said the browns will continue to rise in value. There are very few to be had and unlike the brown Old Mill with southern minor league players the brown Lenox comes with major league players and HOF players that will be a huge plus at auction. As the browns gain recognition it will be the ultimate tough back to have a brown with a HOF player on the front and even better a top tier HOFer like Cobb or Lajoie.

LenoxBlackOldringb.jpgLenoxBrownLakeb.jpg

[egbeachley]

Originally Posted by Cardboard Junkie

Aloha! I have collectd t206's for many decades.....never much payed much attention to the backs, other than avoiding cards with back damage. While flipping through my 206s I see I have a T206 Al Burch in fielding position with a brown lenox back "factory 30 2nd dist NY. It is a beater with multiple creases but all the print and pic are clear. For a long time I heard that the brown ones were just washed out black ones. The back is dingy and looks a little faded, but I have had it for 30+ yrs so I don't think it was ever deliberately doctored. Would fading do this? Will try to post a pic but I am a computer idiot. dave

The way to tell is easy.

When you look at it and say "I think it's brown....yep it's not black, definitely a brown tint to it.....yes, I'm almost certain it's brown"....then it's a faded black.

When you say "Holy Geez...now THAT'S a brown one!"...then it's brown.

[Abravefan11]

Originally Posted by rhettyeakley

T206 rare backs are certainly the "flavor of the month" but there are things priced at a mere fraction of these prices that are rarer and more significant, which baffles me.

Rhett - Great comments and for the most part I agree with you. I believe that some of the current T206 tough back prices are stronger than the market can support in the long term but I don't see any of them taking a dramatic step back like other issues in the past.

This is in large part due to the previous limited knowledge of the average collector regardng how difficult one particular T206 back is in relation to another. It's only been within the last several years that quality information has been shared by the most knowledgeable collectors that has shed the light on these backs and brought the scarcity levels to the attention of the hobby.

The toughest backs are reaching prices that only a small percentage of the collecting pool can afford. This has caused a trickle down effect as collectors that also want to own a back other than Piedmont or Sweet Caporal who can't afford Lenox, Red Hindu or Uzit and are buying American Beauty, Cycle, Tolstoi, EPDG and Polar Bear. There is actually a larger pool for these mid range tough backs and prices are reflecting this group of collectors desire to own them.

There are many more cards that are rarer and scarcer in the hobby than any of these cards but they all lack the number of collectors that desire to own one. I personally own several cards that have single digit examples known and that I find incredibly fascinating, but the demand for them just isn't there to bring a comparable sales price.

Love them or hate them, T206's have an incredible following and even though they may not be the rarest cards in the hobby, there are some cards or backs within the set that simply can not meet the demands of the number of people that desire to own them.

[teetwoohsix]

Great post above Tim, I agree 100%. Also, great observation in the OP.

It's also interesting trying to figure out why these particular cards were printed with this different color back. Could it have been a card included in maybe a test run on a "new premium blend" of Lenox? Or, just got a different batch of Brown ink?

Either way, it seems certain that many collectors are very aware of the rarity of the Brown Lenox back, and I agree that the Lajoie SGC 50 was a great buy !!!

I also agree that there's now more competition for the mid-level backs (Tolstoi, EPDG,CB,Sov,etc- those are more in my range as well). I do focus mainly on the fronts but I want a well rounded collection with a variety of backs as well.

Thanks for the thread-

Sincerely, Clayton

[tedzan]

Here is my theory on the T206 brown LENOX cards.....just a theory, guys, for you to ponder.....so, don't go "wacko" on me.

GIVEN......

1....All (or most) brown LENOX cards are Factory cut; therefore, not "scrap". I view them as legitimate color printing errors.

2....LENOX cards were printed (concurrent with UZIT cards) during the tail-end press runs of the T206 issue (American Litho-
graphic records, circa..early Spring 1911, confirms this).

3....the Brown ink is the same ink used to print the T206 fronts and their captions.

Then, perhaps during these late T206 press runs of the LENOX backs, the printer inked the printing plates with brown ink instead
of black ink. And, printed a few brown LENOX sheets

If so, I think we can predict with better than 50/50 probability which 350/460 series and 460-only T206 cards may be found with
the brown LENOX back by correlating with the subjects of the confirmed UZIT lists....listed here:

The bold listed subjects on this list of confirmed UZIT's are also the currently confirmed brown LENOX cards

350/460 series

Ames (hands in air)
Berger
Bradley (bat)
Burch (fielding)
Cobb (bat off shoulder)
Conroy (bat)
Crawford (bat)
Jennings (one hand)
Jennings (two hands)
Jordan (bat)
Lajoie (bat)
Lake (St Louis-no ball)
Leach (cap)
Leifield (bat)
Manning (pitching)
McQuillan (bat)
Mullin (bat)
Overall (yellow sky)
Pelty (vertical)
Pfeister (throwing)
F. Smith (Chicago & Boston)
Steinfeldt (bat)
Tinker (bat off)
Wagner (bat on right shoulder)
Doc White (pitching)
Wilhelm (bat)
Willetts
Willis (bat)
Wiltse (pitching)

460-only series

Abbaticcio (blue sleeves)
Ball (Cleveland)
Bell (follow thru)
Bridwell (portrait-cap)
Howie Camnitz (arms up)
Harry Camnitz (arms side)
Chance (bat)
Chase (trophy)
Geyer
Herzog (Boston)
Lake (St Louis-with ball)
Latham
Marquard (follow thru)
Merkle (throwing)
Murray (portrait)
Oldring (bat)
Overall (blue sky)
Schaefer (Washington)
Schlei (portrait)
Schlei (bat)
Schulte (back view)
Seymour (portrait)
Tinker (bat on)
Wiltse (portrait-cap)


I have identified 19 brown LENOX cards. Now, I'm aware of two other brown LENOX cards that have been reported, Willis (throw-
ing) and CYoung (glove). However, these two subjects do not exist with UZIT backs. Therefore, they are either anomalies to my
theory or they have been mis-reported ? ?

I expect that more brown LENOX cards will surface. So, please show or tell us of any additional ones not identified here.

Thanks,

TED Z

[Abravefan11]

Ted –

To answer your question the Vic Willis (Throwing) and Cy Young (Glove Shows) on your check list are bad confirmations. I have spoken to the person that confirmed the Willis and they directed me to the auction listing for the card and it was a Vic Willis (w/ Bat) brown Lenox. Right player, wrong pose. The Cy Young was advertised for sale on the B/S/T as a brown Lenox but turned out to be a black Lenox example. The current owner of this card is a board member who without question knows the difference between the brown and black and was able to clear this up.

I have been able to narrow down the number of possible subjects that were printed with a brown Lenox back to about 40. In doing so I haven’t seen any connection between Uzit and brown Lenox. Most cards that can be found with a brown Lenox will also be found with a Uzit but I don’t believe one to be a determining factor for the other.

[tedzan]

Thanks Tim for confirming that the Willis (throwing) and the CYoung (glove) were bad inputs. I had a strong feeling that they were;
but, I had no proof of this.

Regarding the linkage that I have hypothesized between UZIT and brown LENOX, it might be a coincidence (as you are suggesting).
However, the circumstances that I have been looking at indicate that a linkage is plausible.


TED Z

[wonkaticket]

Tim I think has some very good points in this thread. While I do see some ups and downs with some backs I think Tim’s points are correct in that, more folks get their start with T206 or come home again later in collecting if you will.

I also think more folks are becoming more educated and also seeking education in depth for ways to collect this group of cards. I think more folks are seeking little nuances to carve a way to collect this set. Because quite frankly doing it soup to nuts can be a bit out of most folk’s budgets me included. That is why it is so important to make sure whatever info we share is correct and concise.

Tim made a good point that I have seen going on for some time. As more obscure backs and variations price themselves away from folks people will go next in line to brands such as Sovereign, EPDG, American Beauty, Cycle etc. and hence you will see increases in demand and prices.



I was happy to add a second brown Lenox this auction to my collection and deranged mad man or not I thought the price was very fair if not almost cheap.

Cheers,

John

[Gradedcardman]

Congrats John. They are awesome cards and I hope to get a secong one myself one day !!

[wonkaticket]

Adam, you have a nice one if I recall....correct?

[White Borders]

Lots of good discussion guys

However, I'm still unclear as to whether ALC intentionally printed the Brown Lenox with brown ink, or did they mistakenly use brown instead of black?

By intentional, I mean something similar to knowingly and purposefully changing the Sovereign 350s from forest green to apple green. Or like issuing Joe Doyle as N.Y. Nat'l and then changing it to just N.Y.

By mistake, I mean something like the Beck or Sweeney no "B" in which they forgot the red ink pass. Or the Nodgrass or Dopner in which something went amiss with the plate/stone and they didn't notice, or maybe did notice but went ahead and sent them to the factories anyway.

Any enlightenment would be most appreciated.

Best Regards,
Craig

[Abravefan11]

Hi Craig - The cards missing red ink and printing anomalies like the Nodgrass were the result of quality control issues during the printing process. I don't believe that the brown Lenox were caused by an oversight or mistake.

Throughout the production of the T206 set back advertisement ink colors remained very consistent. That is unless an intentional change was made like with the Sovereign 350 forest to apple green or Hindu brown to red.

During the 460 series there were two backs that had a color change mid production, Lenox and Piedmont 42. I've been studying these two groups for a while and have a better understanding of them now, but there is still more to learn. I can say that it's my opinion that these subtle color changes were deliberate and not a simple mistake.

[Gradedcardman]

John, you are correct. It was quite the thrill to see that card in the collection I bought last year !! It really got me on the current path of Back collecting.