Mantle Avalanche

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Delray Vintage

These rapid escalations are never sustainable. Yes, it seems like now everyone must own a 52 Mantle and therefore the price can only rise. We know that is how bubbles occur. Of course the Mantle is worth what someone will pay for it until the bubble pops. You have to wonder who will be the one losing a ton of money on a 150k PSA 6 which it seems will happen soon. We can all say we are in it for the joy of collecting but I want joy and a good investment. Loving my 52 at a good acquisition price will give me more joy than seeing it drop 50% in the next recession. Just saying be careful my collecting friends because crazy price rises are just that, crazy.

People probably said the same thing went it went from 1K to 3K, whenever that was.

[Delray Vintage]

Anytime a price jumps about 500% in 5 years with inflation being about 10% , it is a strange economic phenomenon. In 2010 the PSA 6 was about 18-20k. The 7 was about 35. Yes, obviously demand has increased enough to bid up the price 500%. Anytime you have such a rapid rise, it is important to ask why and is it a rationale investment. It seems we are in the classic argument made during bubbles. That is "I better buy now because in a year the price will double." Since no one can ever predict exactly when a bubble will burst it could be a PSA 7 will sell for 300k in a year, or 75k if it pops.

If investors are the ones buying and bidding up the price, then they will be the first to panic and sell if we hit hard economic times. Collectors will hold a lot longer but no one wants to take a bath. Just my two cents on the Mantle mania.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by Delray Vintage

Anytime a price jumps about 500% in 5 years with inflation being about 10% , it is a strange economic phenomenon. In 2010 the PSA 6 was about 18-20k. The 7 was about 35. Yes, obviously demand has increased enough to bid up the price 500%. Anytime you have such a rapid rise, it is important to ask why and is it a rationale investment. It seems we are in the classic argument made during bubbles. That is "I better buy now because in a year the price will double." Since no one can ever predict exactly when a bubble will burst it could be a PSA 7 will sell for 300k in a year, or 75k if it pops.

If investors are the ones buying and bidding up the price, then they will be the first to panic and sell if we hit hard economic times. Collectors will hold a lot longer but no one wants to take a bath. Just my two cents on the Mantle mania.

right when the flippers all of the sudden cant flip that's the danger time...the great great cards in collections for years or until the collector dies those are fine..but its when those flippers cant find anymore flippers..thats something to find out and see what hpapens..

[Delray Vintage]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

right when the flippers all of the sudden cant flip that's the danger time...the great great cards in collections for years or until the collector dies those are fine..but its when those flippers cant find anymore flippers..thats something to find out and see what hpapens..

I am concerned that there are a lot of people in the hobby who have a vested interest in feeding the frenzy for a hot card. Telling potential buyers in auction catalogs that Mantles are a great investment and they are likely to rise only fuels the bubble. Anyone who has one is happy with the meteoric rise, and anyone who gets a buyers commission is also thrilled to take 19%-20% of a rising price. I am a collector who bought the 52 at a decent price years ago. I am happy my card is worth a lot more, but as a collector I am concerned what this rise indicates for collectors. I know any collectible market has collectors, investors, and speculators. Each segment has its place but when speculators dominate, there is trouble ahead.

[Yoda]

My thought is that those that are willing to pay these mad prices don't care if the economy tanks simply because most likely they are the uber rich, eg. hedge and private dudes who simply want the best of a fixed supply commodity, ie. a '52 Topps Mick and have more than enough liquid funds to do whatever feels good when a copy comes around, and my what a flood we are now witnessing. Still if we go into another recession, I suspect holders of high grade copies will just sit tight rather than take a loss by selling. They didn't become the 1% by making stupid investments.

[Delray Vintage]

Originally Posted by Yoda

My thought is that those that are willing to pay these mad prices don't care if the economy tanks simply because most likely they are the uber rich, eg. hedge and private dudes who simply want the best of a fixed supply commodity, ie. a '52 Topps Mick and have more than enough liquid funds to do whatever feels good when a copy comes around, and my what a flood we are now witnessing. Still if we go into another recession, I suspect holders of high grade copies will just sit tight rather than take a loss by selling. They didn't become the 1% by making stupid investments.

Even the very rich take losses. Look at luxury real estate, the high end art market, jewelry. In a recession the uber rich, many of whom live well above their means, need to raise cash. They have lots of assets, but also lots of debt. Yes, the guys making a billion a year are immune, but the rest of the rich go into debt and bankruptcy like the rest of us. Just saying the guy who paid 500k for the psa 8 might need to sell in a financial crisis to prevent foreclosure on the beach house.

[Peter_Spaeth]

http://www.sportscollectorsdaily.com...-to-nail-down/

[glynparson]

Has very large price jumps when it goes up then it will level off or dip slightly for a long time before it has another huge jump. That has been the track record with this card since I got in to collecting as a seven year old in 1979. For the record I heard back then how overpriced the card was and have almost weekly since then. It still keeps going and going.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by glynparson

Has very large price jumps when it goes up then it will level off or dip slightly for a long time before it has another huge jump. That has been the track record with this card since I got in to collecting as a seven year old in 1979. For the record I heard back then how overpriced the card was and have almost weekly since then. It still keeps going and going.

Yep, I bet at 5k people were shaking their heads and saying it can't keep going up.

[Delray Vintage]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Yep, I bet at 5k people were shaking their heads and saying it can't keep going up.

Who knows who is right about the long term price. The back and forth on the Mantle mania on this board is interesting and fun to consider. My cards have been a much better financial investment than my stocks/real estate. I bought most in the late 1990's and some in the recession of 2008. I am always a little afraid that these printed cardboard pieces have no intrinsic value and will eventually be worthless. I know there will always be a market for rare cards, but when my selling mantle can fund a new Mercedes or a college education I shake my head in wonder.

[MetsBaseball1973]

Originally Posted by glynparson

Has very large price jumps when it goes up then it will level off or dip slightly for a long time before it has another huge jump. That has been the track record with this card since I got in to collecting as a seven year old in 1979. For the record I heard back then how overpriced the card was and have almost weekly since then. It still keeps going and going.

Right on the money. I'd bet most people who say it's overpriced don't have one and secretly want one, if they're honest with themselves. There's no such thing as overpriced anyway, a person will pay what they will, and that's the price at that moment in time.

I must say I am finding more discussions on baseball card forums that devolve into stock market-like talk than discussions about appreciating cards. The only certain thing is that a card brings the collector pleasure. Some seem more concerned about what the next man pays than they are about cards themselves. I doubt flippers are gambling 100k on Mantles, that's a heck of a gamble on something someone-- the flipper-- doesn't care about. I'm of the mind a 52 Mantle is more likely going to a collector who loves it and has wanted to own one for years, and whatever he pays for it his his business, certainly not mine.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Delray Vintage

Who knows who is right about the long term price. The back and forth on the Mantle mania on this board is interesting and fun to consider. My cards have been a much better financial investment than my stocks/real estate. I bought most in the late 1990's and some in the recession of 2008. I am always a little afraid that these printed cardboard pieces have no intrinsic value and will eventually be worthless. I know there will always be a market for rare cards, but when my selling mantle can fund a new Mercedes or a college education I shake my head in wonder.

Yeah I agree re no intrinsic value but that is true of almost any collectible, no? As long as people have disposable income, they will value collectibles, it's human nature And if they don't have any income it will be because the economy is so bad that stocks won't be worth anything either.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by MetsBaseball1973

Right on the money. I'd bet most people who say it's overpriced don't have one and secretly want one, if they're honest with themselves. There's no such thing as overpriced anyway, a person will pay what they will, and that's the price at that moment in time.

I must say I am finding more discussions on baseball card forums that devolve into stock market-like talk than discussions about appreciating cards. The only certain thing is that a card brings the collector pleasure. Some seem more concerned about what the next man pays than they are about cards themselves. I doubt flippers are gambling 100k on Mantles, that's a heck of a gamble on something someone-- the flipper-- doesn't care about. I'm of the mind a 52 Mantle is more likely going to a collector who loves it and has wanted to own one for years, and whatever he pays for it his his business, certainly not mine.

like I said, if we see the exact cards that had huge price increases going back on the market, like the 100k cards, then we will know its flippers and not guys like MattyC..we can only hope there are more MattyCs in the world and not flippers but time will tell.....im sure people will draw attention on this forum when the see a same card hit the market again in a year or two.....no way those sellers are those people that loved the card for the intrinsic pleasure its a flipper..we shall see

[Yoda]

I am beginning to think that The Mick has become the new Honus and the hedgies and those like them, disappointed that a Honus has not been seen in the marketplace for some time, are directing their awesome monetary firepower at the '52 Topps Mantle, the 2nd prize. If that line of logic is at all correct, then watch out the next time that a Honus is offered up, which will inevitably happen. Fireworks!

[KingFisk]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Yep, I bet at 5k people were shaking their heads and saying it can't keep going up.

While the 52T has been been taking off like a rocket, the same seems to be holding true for the 51B. I had been in the market for one all year and then my hopes of getting a nice one -centered, no roller marks - in a low grade steadily dwindled. I finally ended up getting a PSA 2 with those criteria but I spent more than I wanted to (I began the year with hopes of getting a PSA 3 around $3K - ended up getting a 2 for closer to $4K). Three PSA 2s went over the weekend - Goldin and a couple on ebay in the $3500-4500 range. Is any of this price correction for a seemingly undervalued card? If the 52T averages $11K in PSA2, certainly the "true rookie" card should be at least half as much in same condition? Speculators or price correction amongst collectors?

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by KingFisk

While the 52T has been been taking off like a rocket, the same seems to be holding true for the 51B. I had been in the market for one all year and then my hopes of getting a nice one -centered, no roller marks - in a low grade steadily dwindled. I finally ended up getting a PSA 2 with those criteria but I spent more than I wanted to (I began the year with hopes of getting a PSA 3 around $3K - ended up getting a 2 for closer to $4K). Three PSA 2s went over the weekend - Goldin and a couple on ebay in the $3500-4500 range. Is any of this price correction for a seemingly undervalued card? If the 52T averages $11K in PSA2, certainly the "true rookie" card should be at least half as much in same condition? Speculators or price correction amongst collectors?

eh its a whole different animal..many collectors don't even collect bowman..only topps for postwar......plus dead centered can impact value as much as 20-40% versus cards of the same grade in these waterfront property cards..

[pokerplyr80]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

eh its a whole different animal..many collectors don't even collect bowman..only topps for postwar......plus dead centered can impact value as much as 20-40% versus cards of the same grade in these waterfront property cards..

I think the difference could be 100% or more. Take that 6 that just sold for 120k. And off center tilted 6 that just missed being OC would probably go for for less than half of that

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by MetsBaseball1973

Right on the money. I'd bet most people who say it's overpriced don't have one and secretly want one, if they're honest with themselves. There's no such thing as overpriced anyway, a person will pay what they will, and that's the price at that moment in time.

I must say I am finding more discussions on baseball card forums that devolve into stock market-like talk than discussions about appreciating cards. The only certain thing is that a card brings the collector pleasure. Some seem more concerned about what the next man pays than they are about cards themselves. I doubt flippers are gambling 100k on Mantles, that's a heck of a gamble on something someone-- the flipper-- doesn't care about. I'm of the mind a 52 Mantle is more likely going to a collector who loves it and has wanted to own one for years, and whatever he pays for it his his business, certainly not mine.

+1 on both. The "big boys" can throw hundreds of thousands (or more) around like nickels--they aren't "investing," they just want and can afford the best available. It's only a sign that our hobby is maturing, just like coins did, but faster, due to the facilitation of communication between prospective buyers and sellers regarding any scarce to rare items through use of the internet. As I've said before, in the '90's, you used to either have to go to a lot of quality shows to find that highly sought after card, or get lucky through an SCD ad. Now, the large number of prime auction houses and a continuing search on ebay makes task of finding even a pretty rare item far easier.

Regards,

Larry

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by Yoda

I am beginning to think that The Mick has become the new Honus and the hedgies and those like them, disappointed that a Honus has not been seen in the marketplace for some time, are directing their awesome monetary firepower at the '52 Topps Mantle, the 2nd prize. If that line of logic is at all correct, then watch out the next time that a Honus is offered up, which will inevitably happen. Fireworks!

That would be a treat, indeed, for those of us holding Wagners far rarer than the T206--a rising tide lifts all ships!

Happy collecting,

Larry

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Yeah I agree re no intrinsic value but that is true of almost any collectible, no? As long as people have disposable income, they will value collectibles, it's human nature And if they don't have any income it will be because the economy is so bad that stocks won't be worth anything either.

Absolutely a big +1. People like collecting history, especially Americana in this country, and a key card has every bit as much intrinsic value as any other collectible. The card is an instant, just a single moment in the prime of the player's life left behind, which connects you to him and takes you back to the time. That is value--psychological value, but substantial value nonetheless. The 1933 Double Eagle that auctioned off at $7+ million would have a bullion value of a microscopic fraction of that, and people don't spend 8 figures on a '60's Ferrari to drive it around, not even at the Monteray vintage car races. They spend that kind of money because they like these objects, they gain prestige in owning the best for their collections, and they are able to do so.

Good posts,

Larry

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by ls7plus

Absolutely a big +1. People like collecting history, especially Americana in this country, and a key card has every bit as much intrinsic value as any other collectible. The card is an instant, just a single moment in the prime of the player's life left behind, which connects you to him and takes you back to the time. That is value--psychological value, but substantial value nonetheless. The 1933 Double Eagle that auctioned off at $7+ million would have a bullion value of a microscopic fraction of that, and people don't spend 8 figures on a '60's Ferrari to drive it around, not even at the Monteray vintage car races. They spend that kind of money because they like these objects, they gain prestige in owning the best for their collections, and they are able to do so.

Good posts,

Larry

status symbol....but I don't see people buying a beat up mantle for that...it would be the better looking ones.....those 60's Ferraris that are bought are always in excellent shape..not beat up

[Delray Vintage]

Yes, a very nice centered 6 on Goodwin. But 111k already and still time to bid. Will enjoy watching where this one nets out tonight. Will we see 150k with the premium?

[Iron Horse]

Wonder when the bubble will burst lol
Reminds me of the good old days in the real estate market 2005-2007
Fun to watch i will admit. Wish i had a Mantle to sell.
Kind of seeing these outrageous #'s for lots of high end cards and even some mid grade ones.
Enjoy

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by Delray Vintage

Yes, a very nice centered 6 on Goodwin. But 111k already and still time to bid. Will enjoy watching where this one nets out tonight. Will we see 150k with the premium?

a lot of times on the big cards 90% of the bidding is already completed sometimes even the highest bid....days to go or hours to go is meaningless sometimes...the excitement already over but we shall see

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Delray Vintage

Yes, a very nice centered 6 on Goodwin. But 111k already and still time to bid. Will enjoy watching where this one nets out tonight. Will we see 150k with the premium?

Is someone thinking that card has a bump in it? Otherwise the price seems absurd. A very nice 6 was hanging around ebay forever unsold at 60. Then again, Matty C can probably defend it.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Is someone thinking that card has a bump in it? Otherwise the price seems absurd. A very nice 6 was hanging around ebay forever unsold at 60. Then again, Matty C can probably defend it.

a 6 for 60k would be a steal!!

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1952-Topps-M...3D401019500585

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Leon

a 6 for 60k would be a steal!!

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1952-Topps-M...3D401019500585

Yeah we are starting to border on the absurd.

[Delray Vintage]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Yeah we are starting to border on the absurd.

Looks like that mid level 6 on mile high will go for 67+ so 70-75 seems like the new normal for the 6. I see the ebay 6 got re-listed for much more.

[pawpawdiv9]

impressed by seller 'stuffbysil' selling 3 1952 Micks --holy cow!! and sold one in past 6 months.
a 8oc, 6, and a 4 talking big volume for what looks like a jeweler/card collector. Defintely HIGH-END stuff he has.
These prices are pure madness to think a '2' is reaching 15k prices.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by pawpawdiv9

impressed by seller 'stuffbysil' selling 3 1952 Micks --holy cow!! and sold one in past 6 months.
a 8oc, 6, and a 4 talking big volume for what looks like a jeweler/card collector. Defintely HIGH-END stuff he has.
These prices are pure madness to think a '2' is reaching 15k prices.

I remember not going higher on a beautiful 4 when it went for around 8k or so.....Anything halfway decent is 5 figures now.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by pawpawdiv9

impressed by seller 'stuffbysil' selling 3 1952 Micks --holy cow!! and sold one in past 6 months.
a 8oc, 6, and a 4 talking big volume for what looks like a jeweler/card collector. Defintely HIGH-END stuff he has.
These prices are pure madness to think a '2' is reaching 15k prices.

Why he has two scans and one tilted (badly) phone pic is beyond me.