$15,000 to spend on 1-5 cards...WWYD?

[Aaron Seefeldt]

A Babe Ruth Exhibit, the earlier the better.

[anchorednw]

Originally Posted by Aaron Seefeldt

A Babe Ruth Exhibit, the earlier the better.

This seems to be a recurring theme. I do like me a good-looking early Babe Exhibit.

[anchorednw]

Now that we've heard everyone's opinion on player/card/set, the real question is "at what price point", which has been bantered about earlier in the thread.

Personally, I (in my limited knowledge) see some value/upside in:

25-29 Exhibit Babe Ruth
1949 Bowman Jackie Robinson
1951 Bowman Willie Mays

Myself, I am eager to learn more about some early 20's items that some may feel haven't run up in price compared to others.

Is there such a thing as undervalued early 20th century items?

[G1911]

Timing the market, in the sense of absolute peaks and highs, is a fools errand.

However, it is usually very easy to see when things are on the higher end, or the lower end. If everything has doubled recently, it's usually not the best buying time. When everything has been falling for awhile, it's usually a good buying time.

When the government shifts signaled that there was going to be an economic boom in 2016, I bought quick and then held. When government shifts later signaled that they were going to kill the economy, I stopped buying. A few more months and it will be time to start looking at more buying as things have fallen significantly this year. Will I buy at the bottom? Almost certainly no, but I will be ensuring I am buying at a low point in the market and not a high one.

It's pretty similar for cards. Just like when stocks 'go bad', some actually do well and make big gains if you picked the right ones, but the majority tend to follow the same basic rules. You can't time perfectly, but you can generally ID the better buying times.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by G1911

Timing the market, in the sense of absolute peaks and highs, is a fools errand.

However, it is usually very easy to see when things are on the higher end, or the lower end. If everything has doubled recently, it's usually not the best buying time. When everything has been falling for awhile, it's usually a good buying time.

When the government shifts signaled that there was going to be an economic boom in 2016, I bought quick and then held. When government shifts later signaled that they were going to kill the economy, I stopped buying. A few more months and it will be time to start looking at more buying as things have fallen significantly this year. Will I buy at the bottom? Almost certainly no, but I will be ensuring I am buying at a low point in the market and not a high one.

It's pretty similar for cards. Just like when stocks 'go bad', some actually do well and make big gains if you picked the right ones, but the majority tend to follow the same basic rules. You can't time perfectly, but you can generally ID the better buying times.

The research I have seen suggests that over the long haul, you can't really even time approximately and beat the market. Look at all the countless professionals out there trying to do it. Over a long period of time, most of them do not beat the indices. Unless they have insider information.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

The research I have seen suggests that over the long haul, you can't really even time approximately and beat the market. Look at all the countless professionals out there trying to do it. Over a long period of time, most of them do not beat the indices. Unless they have insider information.

You absolutely can, and it is not hard. Most don't, because most people are putting money in when things look all sunny and happy because they follow the narrative of the moment. Many people then panic at the next downturn, and sell.

It takes about 30 seconds to determine if the market is generally high or generally low. We know in real time if things are generally speaking good or bad in the stock market. We know it's low right now. If you buy a diversity of blue chips and/or into properly managed index funds (which are not difficult to identify, less than 20 minutes of research) when it's low and hold, it is incredibly difficult to lose over the long run.

It does not take me to partake in insider trading to do this. It takes a little patience and common sense, no more. It barely takes any of one's time even.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by G1911

You absolutely can, and it is not hard. Most don't, because most people are putting money in when things look all sunny and happy because they follow the narrative of the moment. Many people then panic at the next downturn, and sell.

It takes about 30 seconds to determine if the market is generally high or generally low. We know in real time if things are generally speaking good or bad in the stock market. We know it's low right now. If you buy a diversity of blue chips and/or into properly managed index funds (which are not difficult to identify, less than 20 minutes of research) when it's low and hold, it is incredibly difficult to lose over the long run.

It does not take me to partake in insider trading to do this. It takes a little patience and common sense, no more. It barely takes any of one's time even.

Buying and holding blue chips and index funds is, I would absolutely agree, a winning strategy. I would doubt though that ex ante you can determine the optimal times to buy with any consistency. The vast majority of professionals out there can't do it, research shows. Let's suppose we each had a hypothetical amount to invest and we agreed on how to allocate it. I invest X percent of it at regular, predetermined intervals over a Y year period. Your timing is at your discretion over the same period. I bet you don't beat me.

[Smarti5051]

Giving investment advice is so difficult, because it is unique to your situation. If you are 50 years old with two kids in college with hefty 529s to pay for it, live in a house that is paid off, have $200K in your checking account and $4 million in the market, then $15-25K in sportscards as an "investment" can be fun and arguably sensible. If you are 30 with two kids under 10, have $40K in the bank and $50K in your 401K/IRA and are saving $500/mo after expenses, then a $15-25K investment in sportscards can be a different story.

If you have $4 million in the market, are you in your lifetime going to even notice the extra $25K deposit you make today vs opening that box, digging through the packing peanuts, removing the bubble wrap, separating the cardboard to reveal a nice 52 Topps Jackie or a 33 Goudey Ruth (especially if this card becomes the crown jewel of your collection)? I think there is a psychological dividend to holding a grail card when you already have enough in traditional investments. And when you see your portfolio swing $25-50K a day, it sure is nice to go back and look at that grail card and see it is still the same.

[BobC]

Here's a somewhat different, and definitely outside the box, take in response to your question. Do some research into sets/issues that PSA does not currently grade, or that they have only started grading very recently so there are only an extremely small number of PSA graded examples from that set/issue out there, so far.

No guarantee you can easily find such an eligible candidate set/issue, if at all. But if you did come across a potential prospect, maybe go after raw cards of the major stars/HOFers in that set/issue, in the nicest condition you can find/afford. Then hopefully you can have them graded by PSA in the future when they do start to grade them, or if they've already started grading them, get PSA to grade them right away while the overall PSA graded pop of such a set/issue is still extremely small. This strategy may be highly time and timing dependent as well, so obviously no guarantees of success.

Certainly not a necessarily easy or predictable thing to do. But then, when has any type of such a riskier investment strategy ever really been that easy or predictable?

[anchorednw]

Originally Posted by BobC

Here's a somewhat different, and definitely outside the box, take in response to your question. Do some research into sets/issues that PSA does not currently grade, or that they have only started grading very recently so there are only an extremely small number of PSA graded examples from that set/issue out there, so far.

Though not something I would even begin to invest a large amount in (cardboard-wise), a very interesting project and maybe something fun to do on a smaller scale.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by anchorednw

Now that we've heard everyone's opinion on player/card/set, the real question is "at what price point", which has been bantered about earlier in the thread.

Personally, I (in my limited knowledge) see some value/upside in:

25-29 Exhibit Babe Ruth
1949 Bowman Jackie Robinson
1951 Bowman Willie Mays

Myself, I am eager to learn more about some early 20's items that some may feel haven't run up in price compared to others.

Is there such a thing as undervalued early 20th century items?

Everyone thinks his favorite cards are undervalued. I would stay away from that whole subject, honestly. You're not going to get any consistent answers asking a few random people participating in a thread.

[Republicaninmass]

Another word of advice....when everyone is saying the same items are guaranteed to go up....they already have, and smart money is getting out.

For decades low-mid grade t206s and 33 goudeys littered auction houses. They were likely the most collect and printed cards of the prewar era. Couple that with people saving everything of the superstars of the day, newpapers, photos, etc and you have a big supply. Demand is always the other side of the coin, but the supply side is only curtailed when people want to hang onto their items.