Market Exuberance (or “If I was smart, I’d sell now…”)

[paleocards]

(Posted this on the PSA boards, but I thought there'd be interest here too...)

I track the “performance” of my “blue-chips” through eBay’s sold auctions, major auction house results and VCP. I started doing this soon after I bought and slabbed my first PSA cards in 2005, so I have over 10 years of data for some of my cards. I collect baseball HOFers in as high a grade as I can afford, and I can confidently state that I’ve never seen the baseball card market as explosive as it is now.

The recently-ended Spring auctions by some of the major houses (including REA, Mile High, Memory Lane, and Goldin) provide cases-in-point, but eBay (and not just PWCC) have provided some recent stunners as well.

Here’s some data:

REA (closed 5/1/16) auctioned 7 cards that I have in my collection in the same grade, with five of the seven hammering-down at unprecedented levels (according to my records).

1968 Topps #280 Mickey Mantle PSA 8
New record sale (w/juice): $1080
Previous record: $854 (PWCC “certified,” 12/10/15)
Sales tracked: 320 since 12/9/09

1933 Goudey #92 Lou Gehrig PSA 4
New record sale (w/juice): $2700
Previous record: $2133 (Huggins & Scott, 6/13/13)
Sales tracked: 42 since 1/18/12

1955 Topps #123 Sandy Koufax RC PSA 7
New record sale (w/juice): $4200
Previous record: $3561 (PWCC, 3/8/16)
Sales tracked: 313 since 11/21/07

1959 Topps #514 Bob Gibson RC PSA 8
New record sale (w/juice): $4500
Previous record: $2577 (PWCC, 4/12/16)
Sales tracked: 236 since 10/24/05

1955 Topps #164 Roberto Clemente RC PSA 5
New record sale (w/juice): $5100
Previous record: $3150 (PWCC “certified,” 2/8/16)
Sales tracked: 27 since 5/4/15

Mile High (closed 5/6/16) auctioned 9 cards that I have in my collection in the same grade, with four of the nine hammering-down at unprecedented levels (according to my records).

1956 Topps #292 Luis Aparicio RC PSA 8
New record sale (w/juice): $1020.60
Previous record: $583 (eBay BIN, 12/31/14)
Sales tracked: 84 since 1/8/09

1969 Topps #95 Johnny Bench PSA 9
New record sale (w/juice): $1827.36
Previous record: $1050 (PWCC, 3/13/14)
Sales tracked: 85 since 1/24/06

1966 Topps #50 Mickey Mantle PSA 8
New record sale (w/juice): $3202.80
Previous record: $1450 (eBay BIN, 4/5/16)
Sales tracked: 257 since 8/29/05

1955 Topps #123 Sandy Koufax RC PSA 7 (again!)
New record sale (w/juice): $4393.94
Previous record: $4200 (REA, 5/1/16)
Sales tracked: 315 since 11/21/07

Memory Lane (closed 5/8/16) auctioned 9 cards that I have in my collection in the same grade, with two of the nine hammering-down at unprecedented levels (according to my records).

1971 Topps #26 Bert Blyleven RC PSA 8
New record sale (w/juice): $684
Previous record: $650 (eBay BIN, 7/15/13)
Sales tracked: 63 since 1/14/13

1963 Topps #553 Willie Stargell RC PSA 8
New record sale (w/juice): $684
Previous record: $671 (PWCC, 11/5/14)
Sales tracked: 140 since 3/7/08

And then…another Stargell RC in 8 sold on eBay 12 days later (5/17) for $961.01!

Goldin (closed 5/8/16) auctioned 2 cards that I have in my collection in the same grade, with one of the two hammering-down at an unprecedented level (according to my records).

1949 Bowman #84 Roy Campanella RC PSA 7
New record sale (w/juice): $1037
Previous record: $949 (eBay best offer, 4/13/16)
Sales tracked: 33 since 1/14/12

And of course there’s the PSA 8 Nolan Ryan RC that’s just going ballistic:
New record sale: $8095 (eBay auction, NOT PWCC, 5/15/16)
Previous record: $5000 (PWCC, 5/12/16)
Sales tracked: 272 since 1/6/09

[begsu1013]

ahhhh the mental aspect of collecting.

gotta love it.

and you're not alone.

[Exhibitman]

So...do you sell or hold on? Or downgrade and sell? Vexing questions for collectors.

[Flintboy]

This is a small group of buyers buying all this high grade stuff up. Key rookies in the 50's and higher grade Mantles.... Not all Mantles, just certain years...Pretty genius when it comes right down to it, directing the price point on certain cards.....

[swarmee]

Most investment advisors would recommend taking profits at this time and diversifying.

[MRSPORTSCARDCOLLECTOR]

Originally Posted by Flintboy

This is a small group of buyers buying all this high grade stuff up. Key rookies in the 50's and higher grade Mantles.... Not all Mantles, just certain years...Pretty genius when it comes right down to it, directing the price point on certain cards.....

Also happened in comics a few years ago. A group of people bought up Amazing Fantasy #15 first Spider-Man.
The effect is 7 years ago the entry level to buy a low grade Amazing Fantasy 15 was $2500 and now it`s about $12,500.
Get the key baseball card rookies now before the price entry is too high.

[savedfrommyspokes]

Originally Posted by Flintboy

This is a small group of buyers buying all this high grade stuff up. Key rookies in the 50's and higher grade Mantles.... Not all Mantles, just certain years...Pretty genius when it comes right down to it, directing the price point on certain cards.....

Seems as though this anonymous group have not yet begun to pursue the 57 #95 Mantle or the any of the 52 on up Bowman Mantle cards. A 53 Topps PSA6 Mantle recently sold for approximately the same as a centered PSA 7 53 Bowman Mantle.

[Leon]

My guess is at least some of the record prices are due to exceptional cards for the grade. The best always go for more.

[Bestdj777]

Originally Posted by savedfrommyspokes

Seems as though this anonymous group have not yet begun to pursue the 57 #95 Mantle or the any of the 52 on up Bowman Mantle cards. A 53 Topps PSA6 Mantle recently sold for approximately the same as a centered PSA 7 53 Bowman Mantle.

The 53 Topps is a better card than the 53 Bowman, which is small and kind of boring.

[Mishu2nite]

Originally Posted by paleocards

And of course there’s the PSA 8 Nolan Ryan RC that’s just going ballistic:
New record sale: $8095 (eBay auction, NOT PWCC, 5/15/16)
Previous record: $5000 (PWCC, 5/12/16)
Sales tracked: 272 since 1/6/09

Crazy the Ryan psa 8 just sold for 12,000 yesterday.

[paleocards]

It actually was a "Best Offer" that was accepted for $8600 - another "new record" sale but not quite 5-figures yet.

[KCRfan1]

It seems that just a few cards and players are driving the market right now. Years ago, I remember a successful card shop owner telling me that 99% of the cards out there just aren't worth much. It's the 1% that will always have a market and value.

Is that what everyone is seeing right now? Has it always been this way?

[MRSPORTSCARDCOLLECTOR]

Originally Posted by KCRfan1

It seems that just a few cards and players are driving the market right now. Years ago, I remember a successful card shop owner telling me that 99% of the cards out there just aren't worth much. It's the 1% that will always have a market and value.

Is that what everyone is seeing right now? Has it always been this way?

It`s like that in every hobby. The keys and holy grails go up,while the rest lose value.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by KCRfan1

It seems that just a few cards and players are driving the market right now. Years ago, I remember a successful card shop owner telling me that 99% of the cards out there just aren't worth much. It's the 1% that will always have a market and value.

Is that what everyone is seeing right now? Has it always been this way?

More collectors are player collecting than set building so it seems. (Investors don't want to build sets .)

To answer your question, from my knowledge I don't think it's always been this way. Maybe some but not as much as now. I know as a kid in the late 1960s and 1970s we did sets and teams....

[begsu1013]

Originally Posted by paleocards

It actually was a "Best Offer" that was accepted for $8600 - another "new record" sale but not quite 5-figures yet.

kinda biased, but i have always thought the koosman rc was severely undervalued / underappreciated and sorta still is*...especially centered examples.

obviously each key rc has it's own issues of flaws, but the 68 runs the gamut...

ya have to contend w/ general horrific centering not only on the front, but the back as well.

then ya have major tilt issues, burlap borders/corners, several different pd factors and then differentiating from the reg and the mb.

(if you are doing his basic topps player run, the mb card cant be used)

once ya get past all that, then there's 2 more versions to snag.

the opc and the veni.

my nine is a mb, and while it would carry more value in the mb holder, i havent sent her in because of this very reason.

other than all of that, does any other hof rc card have so many issues and different variations? in any sport?

oh yeah, and it's an uncorrected error card! ("senational" spelling on back)

* i do not think that sgc 98 that is currently on the bay is a 1.2 million dollar card, however i could see decent 8s pushing the gas to about the 15 mark before finally leveling off for a little while.

[Jdoggs]

Clemente PSA 8 rookie is a good example of a card selling for four figures a few years ago to six figures now.

[begsu1013]

Originally Posted by Jdoggs

Clemente PSA 8 rookie is a good example of a card selling for four figures a few years ago to six figures now.

wow! such substance.

nominate this one for post of the year.

[MW1]

Originally Posted by begsu1013

kinda biased, but i have always thought the koosman rc was severely undervalued / underappreciated and sorta still is*...especially centered examples.

...

* i do not think that sgc 98 that is currently on the bay is a 1.2 million dollar card, however i could see decent 8s pushing the gas to about the 15 mark before finally leveling off for a little while.

Tell us what you think it is worth?

[begsu1013]

since it's your card I will send ya a pm.