Are Baseball Cards going to disappear

[Rich Klein]

In our lifetime.

There is a story going around about 9 things that will disappear in our lifetime. Here is a c and p of one of those 9 things

"Many of the very possessions that we used to own are
still in our lives, but we may not actually own them in the future. They
may simply reside in "the cloud." Today your computer has a hard drive
and you store your pictures, music, movies, and documents. Your software
is on a CD or DVD, and you can always re-install it if need be. But all
of that is changing. Apple, Microsoft, and Google are all finishing up
their latest "cloud services." That means that when you turn on a
computer, the Internet will be built into the operating system. So,
Windows, Google, and the Mac OS will be tied straight into the Internet.
If you click an icon, it will open something in the Internet cloud. If
you save something, it will be saved to the cloud. And you may pay a
monthly subscription fee to the cloud provider. In this virtual world,
you can access your music or your books, or your whatever from any
laptop or handheld device. That's the good news. But, will you actually
own any of this "stuff" or will it all be able to disappear at any
moment in a big "Poof?" Will most of the things in our lives be
disposable and whimsical? It makes you want to run to the closet and
pull out that photo album, grab a book from the shelf, or open up a CD
case and pull out the insert"

So, does this apply to Baseball cards and if so, will they disappear and thus any future interest per se in them

Regards
Rich

[Leon]

I have many of the cards in my collection on my website for all to see. If it goes poof I still have the cards and can replace the scans if I need to. I think people still like owning things. Nice question though....

[ls7plus]

Nah, baseball cards won't disappear. People like history, especially (but not limited to) early, significant Americana, they can hold right in their hands. Check out shows like Pawnstars, Classic Car Chasers (not sure I've got the title right, but two well-heeled bidders recently went hot and heavy after a barn-find, late '30's (?) Bugatti with frozen brakes that didn't even run, and had been in storage for nearly 50 years--car went for over $800,000!), Antique Roadshow, etc. The desire to have a tangible link to the past seems to be something embedded deeply within human nature, that isn't likely to change anytime soon.

Prices may be somewhat cyclical, especially the more common stuff, but we'll be around for quite awhile.

Best to all,

Larry

[Brendan]

Are you talking about cards that were already printed or cards that have not been printed yet? If you're talking about cards that haven't been printed yet, there is a legitimate chance that new cards don't come out anymore. People seem to go in that new card stuff for a few years, then move onto other things. Prewar collectors are very steady and I bet more will come in to replace the collectors of today.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by Brendan

Are you talking about cards that were already printed or cards that have not been printed yet? If you're talking about cards that haven't been printed yet, there is a legitimate chance that new cards don't come out anymore. People seem to go in that new card stuff for a few years, then move onto other things. Prewar collectors are very steady and I bet more will come in to replace the collectors of today.

Brendan, I would agree with you about new cards to come except for one thing: there are regionals coming out all the time (Detroit News/Free Press 2006 Tigers and 2010 Fatheads Tigers, in my area come to mind), and they tend to expose new, potential collectors to cards and stimulate at least some interest in the more mainstream issues. But I understand where you're coming from--a lot of the present demand for new issues is speculative and/or transient in nature. I wouldn't want to be sitting on a $2,000 Mauer Gold Refractors Rookie right now, for example. However, I believe that out of the present new card mess some long term collectors will be born. I am a "glass is half full," rather than "half empty" type, though, as I have learned in my law practice over more than three decades that a significant percentage of the cases others have thought were better off abandoned can be won with some creativity and perseverance.

Larry

[doug.goodman]

Originally Posted by Rich Klein

"Apple, Microsoft, and Google are all finishing up their latest "cloud services." That means that when you turn on a
computer, the Internet will be built into the operating system. So, Windows, Google, and the Mac OS will be tied straight into the Internet. If you click an icon, it will open something in the Internet cloud.

Speaking as a guy who traveled with a "laptop" before any (ok, ok, most) of the rest of you, before the term "laptop" was coined, all I can say is :

The "cloud" is crap. Remember when computers were going to mean a "paperless" society?

Anybody who worships at the alter of "the cloud" will find a new place of worship as soon as they spend a couple days with no internet access, yet in desperate need of info from "the cloud".

At least, that's what I think,
Doug

[teetwoohsix]

I agree Doug. Also, say good-bye to privacy when "the cloud" blocks out the sun........Section 5.2 of the Amazon Cloud Drive Terms of Use:

“5.2 Our Right to Access Your Files. You give us the right to access, retain, use and disclose your account information and Your Files: to provide you with technical support and address technical issues; to investigate compliance with the terms of this Agreement, enforce the terms of this Agreement and protect the Service and its users from fraud or security threats; or as we determine is necessary to provide the Service or comply with applicable law”

Ugh.

[Brendan]

Originally Posted by ls7plus

However, I believe that out of the present new card mess some long term collectors will be born.

I do have to agree with this- just most of them end up in prewar or vintage! (like me)

[mark evans]

I can't imagine cards disappearing in my lifetime. Then again, I'm 61.
But more to the point, I think there will always be folks who collect things, regardless of "cloud" developments. So, so long as there is baseball, I suspect there will be baseball cards.

[martyogelvie]

My cards disappear all the time. At least until I remember where I put them!

Originally Posted by doug.goodman

The "cloud" is crap. Remember when computers were going to mean a "paperless" society? Doug

It's happening, it's just been a very long transition. I'm 99% paperless for my job after swimming in paper just 10-15 years ago. With the exception of gifts, items with sentimental value, or vintage collectibles, I don't buy or own CDs, DVDs, books or magazines; I read a LOT, and listen to music a LOT, and watch movies, but for me virtually everything is digital. I'm 54, and I've operated this way for a couple of years already. It's pretty liberating. My entire library of music, video, photos, magazines, books and business files goes wherever I go, takes up no shelf or drawer space, and is easily searchable and available on demand.

For my daughter, who is 25, and her friends and aquaintences, this is a way of life. My daughter has never maintained any paper files, and hasn't bought any "artifacts" like books or CDs in years.

[tbob]

Originally Posted by teetwoohsix

I agree Doug. Also, say good-bye to privacy when "the cloud" blocks out the sun........Section 5.2 of the Amazon Cloud Drive Terms of Use:

“5.2 Our Right to Access Your Files. You give us the right to access, retain, use and disclose your account information and Your Files: to provide you with technical support and address technical issues; to investigate compliance with the terms of this Agreement, enforce the terms of this Agreement and protect the Service and its users from fraud or security threats; or as we determine is necessary to provide the Service or comply with applicable law”

Ugh.

George Orwell 1984

[teetwoohsix]

Originally Posted by tbob

George Orwell 1984

Good one.....

Here's an interesting article about "the cloud" and "The Patriot Act"........

http://www.zdnet.com/blog/igeneratio...e_skin;content

Sorry to stray OT in this thread. Baseball cards won't disappear- your cloud files, on the other hand, may.

Happy 4th of July !!!
God Bless the U.S.A., keep our troops safe and BRING THEM HOME !!!!
The Declaration of Independance, The Constitution, Liberty, and Freedom !!!
A great day to reflect on what this Country is all about......

Sincerely, Clayton

[joeadcock]

My industry is attempting to go paperless.

Hard to imagine baseball cards going away. It is something to hold and value. As said before, maybe future new baseball cards will disappear. Not the old stuff.

[ls7plus]

The new market seems dominated by speculative and transient demand (with the latter meaning that as long as a young player is hot, his card will stay that way, but when he's in his '30's and on the downside, its days as a hot commodity are done, as some new exciting phenoms will have come to rule the roost). But that's not so different from what we had in the '80's to early
'90's, and I can't be the only one who managed to gravitate from new cards then to older cards, with a little help along the way. The same can happen with these "collectors" now--given a genuine interest in baseball, all that's required is a change in focus, especially if there's no aversion to reading about the days of old, or watching some of MLB or Fox's old baseball classic programs.

I'm probably in the minority on this, but I also think that there may eventually be a strong market for something like a Joe Mauer Bowman Chrome Gold Refractor (one of 50), assuming he recovers physically and is able to resume a Cooperstown-bound career for a long enough period of time. The time to buy that card of course is not now, at $1500-$2000 or so, but when Mauer is in his downslide '30's, or shortly after his retirement, when he's out of the everday spotlight. I'm guessing a '68 Topps Bench rookie is about $900 in PSA 9, and that the pop count numbers should be similar to the Mauer. My conclusion would be that the Mauer Gold Refractor would be a reasonably good buy at $100-$200, when all of that speculative hype and transient interest has run its course, and the card has a chance to grow into its real value, apart from the hype. As a HOF collector, if Mauer does indeed persevere and stay on that path, I know I would want what I would consider his best, or one of his best cards--its just that right now, his course is cloudy, and there are a lot better vintage cards to spend that kind of money on than a gold refractor!

Thoughts, anyone?

Larry

[teetwoohsix]

I think modern cards will eventually climb in value (in general), but how far down the road is the million dollar question.

I had a hard time following what was what in modern cards, to the point where it was so confusing for me trying to look cards up in the Beckett big book that I just gave up. Still have tons of modern cards in binders w/ Ultra-Pro sleeves, and occaisionally will look through them, but I really don't know what is worth $$ and what is a dime a dozen. I also think if this is slightly complicated for an adult, it must be for a kid.

It would be nice if Topps "kept it simple" and quit mass producing cards, and quit selling "complete sets".......I think the modern "set" would be way more valuable if you had to put it together yourself.

I'm just rambling, sorry.......

Sincerely, Clayton

[ls7plus]

No, you're not rambling, Clayton--you've made some very good points. If I'm interested in a good young player, and want one of his better cards, I find its far too unwieldy to try to use Beckett's endless listings. It's far better simply to go to e-bay and search for his rookie cards by name, which gives you a pretty quick and dirty education of what's what out there. I did that with Brennan Boesch last year to acquire an orange refractor (one of 25) and recently checked on what comparable Alex Avila rookies were going for using exactly the same method. As you can see, I'm a Tigers fan, and enjoy watching the development of some of their better youngsters. A good card of them simply allows me to share to some extent in their successes and failures vicariously, all the while realizing it is highly unlikely any of them will be HOF'ers, and that the purchase is only for entertainment. I don't think this process is much different than what I did as a kid with Topps cards in the '60's, when I wanted to have my favorite players. Baseball cards, even new ones, can still be fun!

Good thread,

Larry

[teetwoohsix]

Thanks Larry.

Every now and then I search around on ebay to see what modern cards are doing and it seems like a lot of cards do not even get 1 bid. This is where the mass production is killing it. I have a lot of those refractor cards, also quite a few cards with #'s (1 of 99, etc.) but probably nothing too special.

Look at the Strasburg phenomena.....that was pretty wild !!!! I can't think of another modern card that went for that kind of $$ !!

Pre-war cards are by far way more fascinating to me, but I won't toss out my modern cards just yet either

Sincerely, Clayton

[slidekellyslide]

There will always be a market for non-virtual new cards...there may be fewer collectors for these items, but there will always be collectors. Cards are not like music which evolved from wax to vinyl to tapes to CD to MP3s. The evolution of music delivery makes sense..there are still collectors of all of those forms of delivery though. Cards are cards..have always been cards aside from making them shiny, I don't see virtual cards as the future of card collecting.

[mark evans]

As the discussion has evolved from the existence of future cards to the value of cards in the future, I can't resist offering the view that the vast majority of cards produced in the future, as with the cards produced over the last 30+ years, will fail to retain their original retail value. Once cards became "collectibles," the manufacturers simply began to issue far too many for demand to keep up with supply.

And, I don't think "insert" cards will offer an exception in the vast majority of cases because a short supply based upon manufacturing contrivance does not have the same relationship to demand as a genuine short supply based upon the passage of time, as with vintage cards. So, for example, while a 1/1 Strasburg autograph card might have once brought serious money, I would suspect that, over time, its value (even assuming his future prominence) would decline substantially due to the ready supply of other Strasburg autograph cards.

[Al C.risafulli]

I coach a team of fifteen 10 and 11-year-old boys. I believe 13 of them collect baseball cards.

We are the Cardinals. One of the things I do as part of coaching them is give them the name of a player from Cardinals history, then ask them to go home, research that player, and come back in and tell the rest of the team about him. Or I'll be hitting them ground balls, and I'll say "Which Cardinals player was nicknamed the 'Fordham Flash'?" and wait for someone to give the correct answer.

Anyway, when I do this with the kids, about half of them come in with a baseball card of that player, which was pulled out of some pack of shiny cards.

At our last practice, one kid brought his entire collection for me to look at.

So no, I don't think they're going to disappear. Kids still collect, they just collect differently than we did.

-Al

[scmavl]

I do not think they'll disappear. Nor do I think paper books will ever totally disappear. My wife is a writer and the people who bought paper copies of her book FAR outnumber the amount of Kindle/Nook purchases. And she was even in the Top 5 of Kindle sales in her genre (Contemporary Fiction).

[Big Six]

Originally Posted by scmavl

I do not think they'll disappear. Nor do I think paper books will ever totally disappear. My wife is a writer and the people who bought paper copies of her book FAR outnumber the amount of Kindle/Nook purchases. And she was even in the Top 5 of Kindle sales in her genre (Contemporary Fiction).

What is her name?

[Leon]

My wife reads a ton of books. She bought two hardbacks a few days ago (and owns a Kindle) as she said she needed to "hold" them....I guess book readers need their fix just like we need our cards .

[Brendan]

As far as technology goes, there's nothing like the real thing. The new generation understands that.

So no, books won't disappear and nor will baseball cards. (in the seeable future)