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Old 10-09-2008, 04:13 PM
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Default The Death of Direct Sales

Posted By: Bruce Dorskind



It is perfectly clear to us that the current stock market conditions will make it
nearly impossible to sell high priced baseball cards other than through auctions.

Most card dealers, with a very few notable exceptions, have very little cash.
They attempt to carry limited inventories -especially when said inventory
includes rare, expensive and somewhat obscure items.

Dealers are afraid to buy an item at any price approaching true market value.

We have also found that some prominent collectors, whilst refusing to buy an item
outright for $1200 were perfectly willing to pay $1450 + a 15% buyers premium
in an auction less than six weeks after they had an opportunity to buy the same card
for 33% less than they ultimately paid.

As you know, we predicted a depression back in March and a stock market at 8500.

We now see the market closing the year at closer to 6300. Unless the new President
takes action in partnership with the current administration on the day after election
day this depression will make the 1932-36 look like a cake walk.

We see a dramatic slowdown in card sales because sellers, unless they are desperate,
are going to wait to put their rare and high priced items in auction.

While there will no doubt be a few quiet trades, we expect to see a 33% drop in high
grade cards between now and April 1, 2009. It is sad, unfortunate, but mark our
words, the depression is going to cause everyone to suffer.


Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List

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Old 10-09-2008, 04:26 PM
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Default The Death of Direct Sales

Posted By: boxingcardman

C'mon Bruce, aren't you guys rich? Think of all the great buys to be had from people who need to eat, pay for medicine, pay the rent, etc. There'll be rare cards a poppin' and for a fraction of the current prices. Happy days!

Best of all, you boys'll be able to walk in with your dates on Saturday night to any restaurant in town and get a table right away.

Remember, it's only a Depression if your job is lost; otherwise, it's a fire sale!

Sic Gorgiamus Allos Subjectatos Nunc

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Old 10-09-2008, 04:32 PM
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Default The Death of Direct Sales

Posted By: barrysloate

Bruce- I certainly hope you are wrong. The market is down 1800 points in the last four days but at some point it has to level off. It already has affected the card market.

Maybe it's not the best thing to be predicting a depression. We might just pull out of it yet.

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Old 10-09-2008, 04:33 PM
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Default The Death of Direct Sales

Posted By: Dan Bretta

Those who worked on Wall Street will be fine...you know why you don't see any of them jumping out of windows? Because they are all rich beyond belief....they screwed away our money while taking theirs. Lehman brothers still intending to give out over a billion dollars in bonuses while going through bankruptcy??? That's outrageous. AIG officials taking a 1/2 million dollar junket less than a week after receiving a federal bailout??? These people are sick.

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Old 10-09-2008, 04:38 PM
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Default The Death of Direct Sales

Posted By: barrysloate

Hopefully when President Obama takes office he will implement a new set of tough rules to keep all these scoundrels at bay. It won't be easy- he will have a very difficult job on his hands.

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Old 10-09-2008, 04:38 PM
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Default The Death of Direct Sales

Posted By: Bruce Dorskind



Adam


We never have a problem securing a reservation at any restaurant we want to visit/

As for rare cards- we think all but the most desperate sellers will think
twice before placing any significant piece on the market.

The hobby, particularly at the ultra high end, is addicted to auctions.
If one or two of the four whales pull back (for any reason) the ultra rare
high end card market could fall by 30-50%

Low priced cards (under $100) are not likely to be affected.

Middle priced, middle grade cards have already fallen significantly
and are likely to fall another 30%.

So many Board Members have longed for the day when collecting cards
was a hobby again -like it was in the early 1970's- thanks to a series
of "perfect storms" they are about to have their wish granted.


Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List

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Old 10-09-2008, 04:40 PM
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Default The Death of Direct Sales

Posted By: Dan Bretta

You may be right Bruce, but I think cards priced less than $100 will take a harder hit than the ultra high grade cards do because most of those cards are held by people who can afford to get through a recession or god forbid a depression.

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Old 10-09-2008, 04:44 PM
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Default The Death of Direct Sales

Posted By: David R

Only kings, presidents, editors, and people with tapeworms have the right to use the editorial "we."

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Old 10-09-2008, 04:44 PM
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Default The Death of Direct Sales

Posted By: Jim VB

Dan,

That "junket" story isn't what it's made out to be. It was the reward in a year end sales contest for their independent sales agents. Most of the attendees were NOT AIG employees, but instead, independent agents who can sell any brand they want.

They only AIG employees there were a handful (7-8 I read) of managers from Sales who were there to thank these independent contractors for a job well done.

And before anyone jumps on the "job well done" phrase, this was the Insurance division which has performed extremely well, not the Financial Services division which caused the downfall.

This was booked far in advance and the room cost, which was more than 50% of the total, would have had to have been paid, even if they cancelled.

I was as outraged as you at first, but when I looked into it, I calmed down. If they renege on a contest prize to Independent Insurance Agents, they could close their profitable division next year as these guys would all sell something else.

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Old 10-09-2008, 04:46 PM
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Default The Death of Direct Sales

Posted By: Dan Bretta

I think at this point "we" all should get over Bruce's use of the "royal we". We know he's going to use it, we know he's not going to change. We need to adapt and get on with the business of this chatroom. We passed beating a dead horse at least a year ago.

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