Is it safe to buy graded? Or should I focus only on raw?

[wdwfan]

Been thinking about getting rid of all of my modern and focusing solely on vintage. But I'm needing help. I was wanting to add some quality to my PC. Am looking to change my PC up to where whenever I pass, it'll be easy for my wife or whomever to move. That's why I'm wanting to move away from modern and into vintage. Not sure if I want to focus on sets or buying just the stars. But here's my dilemma that I need help with.

Have dabbled in vintage before (built a 1958 Topps set that took over a year to build, which is way too long, partially built 1957 Topps and 1962 Topps sets and had some other stuff), but I had to sell all of my vintage at the time I sold them. Wanting to get back into it.

With all the grading fiasco going on, is it safe to buy graded vintage at this point? I would be looking for grades between 5-7 for the most part when it comes to stars and RCs. I'm not looking for 9s and 10s, which is what I'd guess would be trimmed.

So should I just focus on raw and buy raw? Or is it okay to buy graded? How do I tell if a graded card has been trimmed and graded? Heck, are raw cards trimmed too? Grading scares me, modern scares me because of the volatility and availability of autos, inserts, #d, etc.

Just at a cross roads in my collecting days. Heck, I've thought about giving up on collecting all together. But I don't want to do that. I enjoy the hobby too much. I'm just trying to focus on more quality instead of quantity.

Vintage is what I want to get into. What should I do?

[swarmee]

The answer is no, do not buy graded vintage at this point. A purge is coming.

[ALR-bishop]

I have been collecting since 1957 and among other things have collected all the Topps sets from 1948 to 2018. All of them are ungraded. But I view baseball cards as just a hobby for me.

John is right that there may be some upheaval ahead in the graded world. Buy what you like in the condition that suits you. If it makes sense you can always grade them later. But if possible buy in person and do some research on card condition issues. The upcoming National might be a great place to start

[steve B]

I'd start with a bunch of non- graded cards. Find nice ones that should grade in your target range*. Get a feel for how they are and what a factory edge looks like for that set. Once the grading thing settles out you'll have a better roadmap for how to go.
A bit over a year seems pretty quick to me for any set. But then I'm a bargain hunter with no focus sort of working on every set all at once.

*The exception would maybe be nice commons if they're available for the cost of grading or less. Or really great deals on a star card, like ungraded value plus grading fee. Eventually you may want to grade them, and you won't have to spend the fees.

[wdwfan]

Thanks everyone for the replies. I've always been against graded, but I thought it was be easier for someone to move down the line when I'm no longer able to deal in cards. I'm going to hold off on graded for now and see where that fiasco goes.

As for pickups, I've made a couple of offers to people on here for stuff they've got for sale. Mostly stars (Mays, McCovey, etc. from the 1950s-1960s). Figured I'd start slow and buy mid range cards.

As for buying in hand, the only I have around here is an LCS. It's about 40 miles one way away, and they sell everything at high BV. I can trade there, but they give 1/3 BV in trade credit. So it would take a while to build up.

Got another question though. Is there any investment potential for 1970s? I've thought about putting those sets together (or buying stars form those years). Both seem to be a bit cheaper. But I'm wondering if they'll ever appreciate. I mean it's nice to get early 1970s commons for 10 cents apiece. But will they always be worth that?

[swarmee]

Step 1: Get a COMC account.
Step 2: If you want to get into the 70s, I would recommend focusing on the High Numbers and variations. The others are just too common.

[Rich Klein]

Hughes: You can always come visit me at a show or at my house. And I'll get you to the other LCS in the area -- make a day of it

You are always welcome at either venue

Rich

[Hxcmilkshake]

I think for mid grade, your money won't get you very far vs buying raw.

Buy from reputable dealers, use commons to measure up, and always use a money back guarantee in case you get something thats not kosher.

You'll get more and more comfortable with raw and you'll be able to amass a more substantial collection this way.

Just my 2 cents

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

[Keep_it_warm]

I have been burned two times in 2019 on vintage graded purchases. It sucked the life out of me. I was simply trying to complete a 1956 set.

I felt angry the first time it happened.
I felt stupid and embarrassed the second time it happened.

I hit the pause button and switched back to my other favorite hobby for the time being...vintage BMX bikes. I know how to spot fake bike parts, so I feel more at ease spending my money on stuff I know is legit!

As for the 1956 set? It's still sitting there...at 340 cards...still shy the two cards I was burned on. I'm not sure when I will take the plunge again and re-buy the last two cards. But right now...EFF GRADED CARDS!!!!

[steve B]

Originally Posted by Keep_it_warm

I have been burned two times in 2019 on vintage graded purchases. It sucked the life out of me. I was simply trying to complete a 1956 set.

I felt angry the first time it happened.
I felt stupid and embarrassed the second time it happened.

I hit the pause button and switched back to my other favorite hobby for the time being...vintage BMX bikes. I know how to spot fake bike parts, so I feel more at ease spending my money on stuff I know is legit!

As for the 1956 set? It's still sitting there...at 340 cards...still shy the two cards I was burned on. I'm not sure when I will take the plunge again and re-buy the last two cards. But right now...EFF GRADED CARDS!!!!

Which two cards? And are you picky about condition?

Love vintage BMX, I only have a couple lower end ones. I totally missed the boat on them. I was collecting other bikes when the old BMX was still really cheap.

[jchcollins]

I've always bought graded vintage online, even though I only collect mid to lower grade, with the idea that buying a 5 can save you a raw card that is described as "Excellent", but arrives with a big old crease you couldn't see in the scan. Here anymore though, I don't know. I would hope that people wouldn't stoop (as I mentioned in another post) to altering something like my 1970 Topps Nolan Ryan PSA 6.5, but with all that is coming out, who knows. I know they altered a bunch of 1948 Leaf cards to make VG-EX examples EX-MT or NM, but not sure where they stopped. It's certainly frustrating to not be able to know. And besides Mr. Moser - we don't even know the extent of who "they" are yet...

For the moment, I might suggest buying raw, but make sure you buy from a trusted dealer with 100% positive feedback and a good return policy. I would agree there are some rough waters ahead for PSA and others - and it may affect more than just the most expensive cards in the hobby.

[Exhibitman]

It really depends. I collect a lot of cheap crap so most of my purchases are raw cards.

What do you think of as vintage? If you are talking postwar, there is a great deal of raw available, esp if you are not a condition bug.

On eBay, look for big, clear scans. Not cell phone picks. Identify some quality dealers and look at their stuff first. I hear Greg Morris is good for raw cards. Even so, when you purchase lots expect that there will be some hairline creases and overgrading.

If you are interested in the 1970s, there is a ton out there. I personally prefer to visit my LCS and go through their $0.50 boxes to look for cards I need. Nice way to spend a few free hours. I spend a ton of time at the National hunting through junk boxes. I enjoy it. Doesn't hurt that I have the occasional hit too. Last year I pulled a 1970 Bobby Orr insert from a $0.10 box, which I was looking through only because as I walked by the table I saw a 1979 FB HOFer peeking out the top and figured it might be worth a look. I must've pulled 100 cards from that dime box for my 1970s sets, most of which were $2+ at retail HOFers.

[Promethius88]

Just a thought....all graded cards were raw at one point. Since I personally believe that the vast majority of slabbed cards are legit, as there are millions of them, I would still buy graded...but that's just me. Nothing wrong with raw either, but the truth is, unless you measure and put every single card under a microscope, you could be getting an altered card. Now, depending on what happens, graded could take a plunge and raw could see a surge. Which, in my mind would be completely insane as you can take that card out of a holder and sell it raw...still the same card.
If you are doing intfor the enjoyment, buy what you like, raw or graded, whatever you feel you are getting a better deal on and call it a day. If you worry about it too much, it will just take the fun out of it and you might as well just take up gardening full time.
Best of luck!!

[swarmee]

Originally Posted by Promethius88

you can take that card out of a holder and sell it raw...

This happens all the time on PSA 5s and 6s that look like 8s. Sell better raw. Remember all the threads wondering about the Greg Morris auctions which started outpacing some PSA 9 prices for GM's NM-MT categories? Those cards weren't even "dead nuts centered" as they say.

[Promethius88]

Originally Posted by swarmee

This happens all the time on PSA 5s and 6s that look like 8s. Sell better raw. Remember all the threads wondering about the Greg Morris auctions which started outpacing some PSA 9 prices for GM's NM-MT categories? Those cards weren't even "dead nuts centered" as they say.

Indeed. Been working on a 61 Topps set raw in NM or better and was outbid over and over on GMC auctions so I've had to take a rest from it for now. Hoping to find some decent stuff at the National

[Keep_it_warm]

Originally Posted by steve B

Which two cards? And are you picky about condition?

Love vintage BMX, I only have a couple lower end ones. I totally missed the boat on them. I was collecting other bikes when the old BMX was still really cheap.

Clemente and Jackie Robinson...lol....figures, right? I bought both, gray backs, graded 7, and both cards had issues. Fortunately, I was able to get my money back on both occasions.

[wdwfan]

Didn't think I'd get this many replies, but thanks to everyone.

I want to collect 50s-early 60s stars and semis (I just don't think commons are going to appreciate like the stars will) to start then maybe go back into the 40s and older. I'm not a condition bug. In other words I don't need the mintiest, mint of all cards. The Ex stuff will work as long as it's got decent centering and corners, no paper loss, no writing, etc.

At the same time, I don't want to spend the time and effort buying low grade and have cards that look like they've been run over while in the bicycle spokes.

I will not buy anything from Greg Morris, PWCC, Probstien, etc. It appears to me, judging from my own inexperienced eye, that those guys bid on their own stuff. I mean how else can you explain the winning bidder having like 75-100% of their bids with this one seller and then the item getting relisted. But I digress.

I am about to close on a vintage purchase from someone on here for some mostly 60s stars with a few 50s sprinkled in. I'm really excited about potentially getting these cards and restarting my vintage collection. As I said, I may go back into the 40s and earlier after that as I study more about the older game. I've been watching Ken Burns' Baseball, and I want to try and pick up some of those guys I've been seeing.

[clydepepper]

Earlier this year, seeing the high prices everyone seems to ask for their graded cards, I decided to find the best raw Mantles I could - at significantly lower prices than those already graded.

I believe I found some cards that I can have graded at a later date with much less outlay of cash.

Obviously, you have to be careful...more careful than buying graded cards, though those are not 'bullet-proof' by any means.

I purchased from sellers I either had previously dealt with or ones I vetted in every way possible - and had a max price I was willing to spend in each case.

I'm far from an expert, but I believe it will work for me.


Good Luck.



.

[jchcollins]

The “raw card phenomenon” is definitely a thing with the bigger dealers. I had a ‘56 Clemente that I busted, was a BVG 5. Nothing super special, it was very well centered and had great eye appeal but even raw - to my naked eye it was not a super high-end, undergraded PSA 7 or higher card or anything. Won’t say who, but I sold it on eBay to one of these “big” dealers for $205. That dealer then turned around and sold it raw for nearly $700.

Shill bidding going on? I won’t level that accusation, but if no monkey business - that is a hell of a markup just because it was sold by a dealer who is large and has a recognizeable name. Whoever got that card was seriously taken, if they really paid that much for it - that’s all I’ll say. And to this dealer’s credit - they didn’t try to hype it for more than it was, it was listed as an EX+ to EX-MT card. Raw, I could go along with that. Just doesn’t make much sense to me when for that price, someone could have gone and bought a graded PSA 7.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[jchcollins]

To my knowledge, this latest “altered card” scandal does not extend to SGC, does it? Yes,they had their issues earlier with the fake autos, but I have not heard anything from the PWCC bs leveled at SGC...

I really hope they won’t be implicated somehow. Every big grader makes mistakes, that much is obvious by now - but I have always felt that SGC on the whole has been very fair and consistent in their grading of vintage cards.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[steve B]

Originally Posted by jchcollins

The “raw card phenomenon” is definitely a thing with the bigger dealers. I had a ‘56 Clemente that I busted, was a BVG 5. Nothing super special, it was very well centered and had great eye appeal but even raw - to my naked eye it was not a super high-end, undergraded PSA 7 or higher card or anything. Won’t say who, but I sold it on eBay to one of these “big” dealers for $205. That dealer then turned around and sold it raw for nearly $700.

Shill bidding going on? I won’t level that accusation, but if no monkey business - that is a hell of a markup just because it was sold by a dealer who is large and has a recognizeable name. Whoever got that card was seriously taken, if they really paid that much for it - that’s all I’ll say. And to this dealer’s credit - they didn’t try to hype it for more than it was, it was listed as an EX+ to EX-MT card. Raw, I could go along with that. Just doesn’t make much sense to me when for that price, someone could have gone and bought a graded PSA 7.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

That increase for a recognizable name is a pretty common thing.

I have a friend who collects/deals in 16mm films. At one point I was listing some of his "junk" for him, educational films mostly, and most were in average condition.
On though... educational, sure (Massive production, so they're rarely expensive)famous story pretty well done... And new enough that it wasn't on film that fades to red, and was mylar, with almost no use. Really beautiful example. I listed it at 24.99, no takers, relisted, nothing. Talked to him and he convinced me to start it at 9.99... Still no. Gave it back to him, he listed it at 24.99 and it sold for 50! He copied and pasted my description and used my pictures so the listings were essentially identical.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by swarmee

This happens all the time on PSA 5s and 6s that look like 8s. Sell better raw. Remember all the threads wondering about the Greg Morris auctions which started outpacing some PSA 9 prices for GM's NM-MT categories? Those cards weren't even "dead nuts centered" as they say.

Yet. Give Moser some time to get to them...

[swarmee]

Yep, his eBay account is still active and Painthistorian has some nice raw ending tonight. Had an early bid on that 1952 Topps #1, but it sold for $227. Would be a shame if it gets Mosered.
Ricky-leo is what he changed his Ebay handle to. Hopefully everyone who sells on eBay cancels his purchases and informs the FBI where his current address is.

[Steve D]

I will definitely continue to buy graded/slabbed cards.

I have always been one who "buys the card, not the holder". Once I see a card that is in the grade range I'm looking for, I examine the card (even on the internet), and determine if it has the "eye appeal" I'm looking for. If it doesn't meet my expectations, I pass on it. It isn't really that difficult, as long as you can zoom the picture.

I remember very well, the days before the TPGs came into existence. 1953 and 1971 Topps that were colored-in with magic markers, trimmed cards, outright counterfeits..........

I believe the TPGs have, while there are valid concerns right now, greatly improved the hobby. I am confident they will continue to do so.

Steve

[dio]

continue to buy graded, these issues will get over in a few months.
PSA/SGC if later you found out it's altered, they have gurantee, they will pay you back, come on. this is part of the reason why you're paying premium.

Buying raw , bigger risk on fake cards. tons of them. and when you buy a nr-mint, when you get it, it might be ex or below only. even able to return you waste your time and effort keep on returning.

Scandals will happen and will continue to happen. I'm sure PSA/SGC , good company will find a way to work things out.