How many card shops have become just like this......

[Rich Klein]

real money comes from the "new" cards. With the licensing fees MLB gets from Topps and MLBPA gets from Topps, Upper Deck and Panini, we are about one percent of the collectors.

Barry, it would be nice to get people right to vintage but you got to start somewhere and Wally World and Target are now our front lines in many locations.

And there is the "hope" factor, for example -- (as a plug here) -- read my revioews in Sports Collectors Daily and my editor now puts all my stories on Facebook. Talking about a product like Topps 2 Baseball got about 40 likes, talking about The Trader Speaks got about 10 likes and talking about some other topics got maybe five likes. In other words, lots of people like the new stuff and it's not going away any time soon.

As for the lady's store, I think at this point, if I remember the article correctly she is 89 years old and the store gives her something to do and frankly keeping up with all the new stuff is hard. You have to keep up with both players and products.

Rich

[murcerfan]

Barry, but it's Mike Trout, not Steve. At least you didn't call him Dizzy!

I pulled a Dizzy Trout once.

No wait...... different forum, sorry.

[murcerfan]

I don't even know where I'd go if I wanted to buy a pack of baseball cards.

Was in a walmart for the first time in years last night (buying another dehumidifier) and waiting at check-out I saw no BB cards on display.

I used to score packs of '70 and '71 Topps across the street from our Middle School every day at a candy store (yes, a candy store directly across the street run by a little old lady) as did most of the hoodlums that rode the bus home with me, we'd swap cards and talk baseball the whole ride home

....happy times.

We never figured out the high numbered cards came out during summer break

[barrysloate]

Hi Rich- a few thoughts about what you said.

I think there will be somebody somewhere buying newer cards, but there will still be many future collectors who will go straight to vintage. Every baseball fan has heard of Ty Cobb and Christy Mathewson so that is not a stretch at all.

Of the dwindling number of new card buyers, how many are buying to piecemeal complete sets together, and how many are buying only for the chase cards? I don't consider the latter to be a form of collecting, but more akin to buying a quick-pick lottery ticket.

How many stories have you heard about people buying packs, opening them up at the counter, and then throwing away the cards after they discover they didn't get any valuable ones? That's not collecting either.

Of course as long as new cards are being issued, some people will be buying them. But the number of buyers will be tiny compared to what we might consider the golden age of baseball cards (of which our definition may vary).

[Rich Klein]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Hi Rich- a few thoughts about what you said.

I think there will be somebody somewhere buying newer cards, but there will still be many future collectors who will go straight to vintage. Every baseball fan has heard of Ty Cobb and Christy Mathewson so that is not a stretch at all.

I'd think you be saddened by how few baseball fans have heard of Christy Mathewsonl, I think Cobb is better known but only because of that wretched movie of the 1990's. And it took his passing for anyone to remember Stan Musial outside of St. Louis, Kids today are not into baseball history the way our generation was-- for them baseball history is Mike Schmidt and Dwight Gooden and Reggie Jackson and those people who we have video of.


Of the dwindling number of new card buyers, how many are buying to piecemeal complete sets together, and how many are buying only for the chase cards? I don't consider the latter to be a form of collecting, but more akin to buying a quick-pick lottery ticket.

More than you think, however base sets are cheap enough the ways to buy the last cards you need for a set are so varied (Beckett Marketplace, COMC and tons of internet outlets, that the old school way of shows and stores to finsih sets is much less than in the past

How many stories have you heard about people buying packs, opening them up at the counter, and then throwing away the cards after they discover they didn't get any valuable ones? That's not collecting either.

Barry -- that was true about the cards beikng left on the counters in the 1980's - my late friends who ran H&H Hobbies, a truly local 1980's card store would have people come in, buy their 1985 packs and if the "rookies" were not hit, the cards were left on the counter. And I wager the kids in the 1930's if they did not hit a Babe Ruth card gave their Willie Kamm cards away.

Of course as long as new cards are being issued, some people will be buying them. But the number of buyers will be tiny compared to what we might consider the golden age of baseball cards (of which our definition may vary).

Barry -- I think you are severly underestmiating the new card market --- I do agree the new card market is no where near where it was in the early 1990's (we were bigger than detrifice (toothpaste) but come to Texas, come to this local show I set up at and see how active the new card world is

[barrysloate]

Maybe the new card market is bigger than I am assuming it is, but it is still a fraction of what it used to be. And if I'm a betting man, I would say it will continue to get smaller.

[xcgrammer]

Here is what I think: I was born in 1980, so I grew up in the boom times for baseball cards the late 80's and early 90's. Even though the hobby was being over produced by every company, to the point that they were killing values and turning off a lot of people most didn't realize this at the time. It was still a purer time and kids my age were truly passionate about it. I'm talking a VERY high percentage collected then. Much greater than today, our grandfathers collected, our fathers collected. They told us about Mickey Mantle and such. We bought Becketts and flipped to the old sets in awe of the high dollar signs on things like 1952 Topps Mantle's, so we still place value on these things. In 1991 I used to dream of the great vintage cards of the 1950's. My dad had a little stack of mid 50's and early 60's cards that he gave to me. My best card was a 1961 Whitey Ford All-Star worth about 80-100 dollars according to the guide.

My fathers generation values vintage cards because they grew up buying them. That generation taught us to collect they were the golden era. That generation, the baby boomers, will not be around in 20-25 years. My generation as long as we are here will value cards, vintage and the like. However when we are gone in the next 50 or so years there will be no one left who first-hand experienced the hobby when it was hugely popular. My generation for the most part hasn't taught the kids of today to collect. We have lost this next generation and thus lost all future generations.

This simply has to at some point affect values. While there will still be small percentages collecting with massive amounts of money to blow auctions records through the roof, I HAVE to think that the bulk of the hobby will have to be devalued at some point. Simply due to the fact that with fewer collectors (over the next 50 years who grew up collecting) it is back to simple supply and demand. Eventually you are going to get to a place where it is just viewed as pieces of paper. Everyone would have to agree that kids of today place little value or know much about the history of anything. I have to think this will only get worse with time. Believe me I am the last person who wants to see this happen.

I feel often that I was born 50 years too late. I am however thankful that my dad took the time to take me to Walgreens and baseball card shops and teach me and get me hooked on the hobby. I will be forever grateful to him for this and cherish those memories. I just wish future generations would have the same experience and value it as well.

[bbcard1]

There was a time when every ten to twelve year old boy in America collected baseball cards. I owned a shop at that time and was, in my own way, a celebrity. It was a smallish town (about 75,000) and I was often on television and in the news. My wife and I virtually never went into a restaurant without some kid saying, "look, it's the baseball card guy." We tried hard and tried to trade with the kids...never made much money...I think at the peak my partner and I were probably making $24K each a year, but we also split hours so we could pursue other interests...I did freelance writing, he did some acting and building. We also probably spent 30% or our paycheck back on stuff for our collected, granted at a decent discount. Weird things happened all the time. I remember being at a show when Mark McGuire was on a tear and his rookie cards literally tripled from the show open until the show close because he hit two homers that day. People actually kept up with baseball. Another odd thing that happened at shows and shops is that dealers actually tried to conduct business and had some semblance of customer service instead of standing off to the side grousing about how bad business was. It was a good time but we'll never see it again.

[slidekellyslide]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Hi Rich- a few thoughts about what you said.

I think there will be somebody somewhere buying newer cards, but there will still be many future collectors who will go straight to vintage. Every baseball fan has heard of Ty Cobb and Christy Mathewson so that is not a stretch at all.

Cobb? Maybe, but Christy Mathewson? Nope...I actually found a 1906 New York Giants postcard with Matty on it at a garage sale last week (for a whole nickel!) I told my buddy who IS a big baseball fan and he didn't know who that was. We're in a bubble Barry, we may think everyone outside of that bubble is aware of our world, but they are not.

[barrysloate]

That's surprising Dan. I know there are many people who actively follow baseball today who have never heard of Cap Anson or Mike Kelly, but I thought Christy Mathewson was a little more widely known. No question, however, that collectors live in a bubble. We assume everybody finds baseball cards fascinating, which of course most of the population doesn't.

[RCMcKenzie]

The 70's cards I collected as a kid are absolutely worthless. A 1952 Topps common in collector grade is worth 2 dollars at best. Same for Playballs and Goudeys. As long as people follow baseball there will be a market for the cards. The older the better. See Atlantics CDV auction etc.

[MattyC]

I am 37. If the next and successive generations have caused a no-demand situation in which Balt News Ruths are selling for $500 or $5000 dollars (a scenario to which I personally don't subscribe), I do know I won't be alive to see it.

As long as my generation of collectors is part of the buying pool, the prices will be pretty stable. I know too many guys in their 30s and 40s who never saw Ruth, Cobb, DiMaggio, Mantle, or Koufax play. But we revere their names in the hobby, the sport, and even popular culture. And their cards are revered, for what they represent, their aesthetic beauty, and because as kids we did stare at them in CCPs and Becketts and dreamed of one day owning them.

So if there ever is a world with little demand for the great vintage HOfer cards of today, I'll be very, very old, and care very little. If anything, I'd probably welcome that scenario, as it will allow me to make a flurry of long-desired purchases before my number is called.

[Rich Klein]

Because he is larger than life, and with all those movies and books on him and every once in a while Topps brings him back as well -- Ruth will be just fine as a collecting icon.

The Gehrig, DiMaggio and Mantle stuff will be fine as well.

Now, Harmon Killebrew will be forgotten once the generation who saw him play begins to really die off. Sorry, that is just a fact just as that will happen with Brooks Robinson, Enos Slaughter, Big John Mize, etc.

It is what it is

Rich

[yomass]

Go long Magic cards, Ninja turtle action figures and MIB classic Nintendo games.
Those are what today's kids will be nostalgic for when they grow up.
Even those worthless beanie babies will be worth having in 2035...

[packs]

I am in the camp of hoping that in 30 years when advanced collectors today are old and selling their collection en masse that prices plummet due to an over saturated market and no demand from the incoming generation.

I know of no human outside of this board that would know who Addie Joss was. They brought his name up on Sports Center after Bailey's second no-hitter and the anchor acted like Joss was just some guy who pitched a hundred years ago. No thought as to who he was.

Personally I know no one my age that collects. At card shows I might see one other person my age looking at pre-war. There are collectors my age on the board, but I don't know if they're whales like the advanced collectors. They may turn into them, but will you need that kind of cash in 30 years? I don't think so. I would be very surprised if T206 Cobb's in a 3 are still selling for $1,000 30 years from now. And I don't see them going up after all the cards in private collections are freed up by estate sales.

Looking forward to my collection being worthless so I can have all of the cards I've always wanted while people shell out $10,000 for a Bowman Pujols.

[Vol]

Originally Posted by packs

I know of no human outside of this board that would know who Addie Joss was.

Personally I know no one my age that collects.

+1

[Bored5000]

I am also of the belief that card values on the whole will go down over time; there just aren't enough young collectors to sustain the current level of prices. I wonder how much of the lack of interest in the hobby by people under 30 is impacted by the perception that baseball cards/autographs/memorabilia is a hobby populated by shysters and scammers.

Obviously, there are many honest and ethical people involved with the hobby. But I do find myself exasperated at times by the seemingly infinite amount of people looking to rip off buyers.

I hope I am wrong about this, but I think the counterfeit cards/slabs wil keep improving to the point that it may be impossible to tell what is real and what is fake. If that is the case, I can definitely see the high end market of Ruth/Gehrig/Cobb/Jordan etc. cards collapsing as people just throw their hands up and give up.

[packs]

I mean cards have only really been expensive for the past 10 years or 15 years. Before that they were worthless. What drove the prices up? I think it was older collectors getting back into collecting to be in touch with some aspect of their childhood and with higher incomes than they ever had before, along with wider access via the internet. At least that's my opinion.

People my age aren't going to be nostalgic about anything. Maybe they'll long for the days of flip phones and MySpace, but I don't think today's world allows for nostalgia like it used to. I try to think of things that I would return to from my childhood of the early 90s and I can't think of anything.

I'm naturally interested in history and I like baseball. But there aren't too many other people like me in my circle. Or maybe I just don't know where they are. I can't see any of my friends collecting cards for any reason for the rest of their lives. If they return to the things from their past, my guess is it will be old electronics.

[Deertick]

Originally Posted by packs

I mean cards have only really been expensive for the past 10 years or 15 years. Before that they were worthless.

[Julz24]

Originally Posted by VOLnVEGAS

+1

+2


The last person that I knew that collected cards moved out of town some 20 years ago. I tried to tell a good friend at work that I collect baseball cards. He looked at me like I was an idiot and I never brought it up again. And he is a hardcore baseball fan...

We're a dying breed I fear.

[rhettyeakley]

Originally Posted by packs

I mean cards have only really been expensive for the past 10 years or 15 years. Before that they were worthless.

are you serious with this comment? So cards were worthless until 1998-2003?

I am much more optimistic about this hobby than most I guess based on the comments thus far. I think people are over analyzing things. As long as there are people that like both sports and history the future is probably fine. There are tons of hobbies out there that don't require one to have collected that item as a child to ensure that they collect as an adult. Heck, as a kid I was way more into Star Wars figures than I was baseball cards but only have a passive interest in them now. There is a portion of the population that likes to collect things, some couldn't care less. Those that have an interest in sports and like to collect things will be driven to this hobby. The overall limited supply of prewar sports cards actually IMO bodes well for this hobby. This is a hobby where a total population of under100 items is rather normal, a hobby such as coins and stamps any item with a total population in that range would be viewed as ultra rare and highly collected.

I think there will still be collectors they just might not follow the same path to the hobby as many of us did to get here. Again, I may be overly optimistic in the way I see it but only time will tell.

[packs]

Well what would you say the average price for a VG T206 Cobb any pose would have run you in 1998? Now you're going to pay somewhere around $1,000 on average.

I don't mean worthless as in zero value. My opinion (and it's just an opinion) is that cards didn't see real value until the internet became readily accessible.

[wonkaticket]

Originally Posted by yomass

Go long Magic cards, Ninja turtle action figures and MIB classic Nintendo games.
Those are what today's kids will be nostalgic for when they grow up.
Even those worthless beanie babies will be worth having in 2035...

+1

[MattyC]

Originally Posted by Bored5000

I am also of the belief that card values on the whole will go down over time; there just aren't enough young collectors to sustain the current level of prices. I wonder how much of the lack of interest in the hobby by people under 30 is impacted by the perception that baseball cards/autographs/memorabilia is a hobby populated by shysters and scammers.

Obviously, there are many honest and ethical people involved with the hobby. But I do find myself exasperated at times by the seemingly infinite amount of people looking to rip off buyers.

I hope I am wrong about this, but I think the counterfeit cards/slabs wil keep improving to the point that it may be impossible to tell what is real and what is fake. If that is the case, I can definitely see the high end market of Ruth/Gehrig/Cobb/Jordan etc. cards collapsing as people just throw their hands up and give up.

If they can't fake fine art to the point where prices of Van Goghs to Basquiats collapse, the forgers won't collapse the market on Ruths and Mantles. The money to be made now in faking cards is great; the technology available today is great; and yet, we can still discern real from fugazi. I doubt some miracle technology will appear that blows the game open with respect to forging.

We all have different definitions in our heads, when we wonder where "cards" will be in value down the line. My money is on the big HOF cards with eye appeal only appreciating in the years if not decades to come.

And let's say those seeing a collapse due to low-demand are right; when will this happen? 50 years, when guys in their mid 30s now are 80s? There are enough of us in our 30s and 40s to sustain current prices and then some. Even guys who are 50 today have at least, on average, a quarter century left of active buying. So color me unconcerned about what happens 25+ years out.

I don't know many people who project and act on 25 or 50 year windows. 2 years, 5 years, maybe even 10. Buy once we are talking about what happens around half a century down the line (or even a couple decades) I think it all just becomes too impossible to say.

[dabigyankeeman]

Originally Posted by packs

People my age aren't going to be nostalgic about anything. Maybe they'll long for the days of flip phones and MySpace, but I don't think today's world allows for nostalgia like it used to. I try to think of things that I would return to from my childhood of the early 90s and I can't think of anything.

The problem is that right now you are too young to be nostalgic about anything. Wait 30+ years, and you will see that things from your youth all of a sudden become neat, they become great old memories, they bring back your youth, and so on. You will see, remember when it happens, i predicted it here and now!!

[brett 75]

Speculation is a wonderful thing . Ask anyone who invested in real estate . If you could really tell which way the card market was going you would already be a billionaire . How about enjoying it for what it is a Hobby . Brett

[cardaholic]

It's sort of fitting that the leader of the dinosaur media sought out a dinosaur hobby shop for their article.
The internet has changed the card business, both vintage and modern. The chase card explosion (autos, game-used, etc.) has further changed the modern card business. The Times chose a card dealer who hasn't been with the times in decades and who seems to be running a store as a hobby to keep busy. They also got a choice quote from Upper Deck's "marketing guru", who when he's not busy urging collectors on the UD blog to be their local card store's sugar daddy [seriously - read it and retch] is only too happy to go along with the absurd idea that collectors still aren't used to buying and selling cards on the internet.

The modern card market is strong, but not much of it is about set collecting any more - Topps, Heritage, and Allen & Ginter are the big exceptions. Now, it's primarily player or team collecting, and collectors buy differently. A few years ago, team slots in online box breaks were almost unheard of. Now, it's how most high-end modern sets are sold and opened.

It's not surprising that the major retail stores are selling fewer and fewer cards. Between pack searchers and lousy odds for the expensive cards in retail packs, many collectors of modern cards avoid the retail card aisles.

I agree with almost everything Rich Klein has said in this thread, although I don't think Brooks Robinson will be forgotten - he has achieved legend status in Baltimore such that kids there know who he is.

[t206fix]

Originally Posted by packs

Well what would you say the average price for a VG T206 Cobb any pose would have run you in 1998? Now you're going to pay somewhere around $1,000 on average.

I don't mean worthless as in zero value. My opinion (and it's just an opinion) is that cards didn't see real value until the internet became readily accessible.

Yeah - but if you factor in inflation (look it up - gas was $1.06 a gallon back then...) and the fact that none of us had the internet readily available like we do now, and that vg Cobb is probably priced right for 1998. If I had a time machine, I would travel back to 1988, and I wouldn't have spent $$$ chasing Gregg Jeffries, Devon White and Bobby Bonilla RCs - and all my money would have been going into t206 Cobbs. But... there was no marketplace for them - I wouldn't know where to find one and, if I did, I would have paid probably $1000 at the local card shop for it.

The big game changer is in the internet. There is a market place out there right now for these cards where everyone in the whole world can compete for these cardboard gems. In 1998, I wouldn't know where to find a t206 cobb or even a t206 Danny Murphy Batting (I'm putting together a back run - if you've got one, let me know) Right now, I can go on the PSA/Sgc pop reports (I know the sgc pop report is lame) and see how many cards are out there graded. I can go on to VCP and Cardtarget and see how much these cards have been sold or priced at. If I buy a card with intention of flipping it, I know that that the everyone out there has seen what I paid for it... Information is everything, and right now, we have it at our fingertips. (Except for Leon, who must have government clearance on some of the searches he does... How many times do we need to see a post from him saying... "Look what I picked up on ebay. It's a 1914 Global Pirate Coupon (Ultra Rare Back only sold in Savannah, GA) Tris Speaker and I didn't spend that much on it ($7). It's the only one ever made!" Who knows about all these different cards unless he does have some sort of gov't clearance... right, Leon Your secret is safe with me...)

(DJ - start the Star Spangled Banner music in the background)

I love America and our free market ('Merica - love it). Because of this little thing called ebay (I know, I hate it too, but I also love it...) and Auction Houses, we know now that we can purchase a PSA 2 Red t206 Cobb from Henry Puffe in Lander, Wyoming for $540, or an SGC 20 from Merle Finkleberger in Jupiter, Florida for $495, and we know that we are not getting ripped off. But, if I see one going on ebay for a BIN of $800, well, buyer beware. Also, there's a 90% chance that we can resell that card for the same or an even higher amount in a year if needed (except in a global economic collapse or alien invasion).

So, anyhow, what is the point of my beer induced, way too long post...
I think that our hobby/addiction has never been better. If I wake up tomorrow, and t206 Cobbs are going for $75 (if you are selling a t206 cobb for $75, pm me first, I'll take it), then I know there will be trouble (not really, I'll still buy them from you). Right now, I can't even sniff a t206 cobb sgc10 for $400, so I'm pretty confident the market will stay stable. And yes, my 9 and 11 year old sons know who Ty Cobb is, and they'll buy a t206 cobb from you for $75 also.

Right now, check ebay and see how much a Mike Trout RC would run you, and ask yourself, have we changed since 1991? All of us on the vintage side say these are crap (or carp) cards, but are they, if they are really going for this much. Somebody's buying it...

[HOFAUTOS]

Take a visit to the Blowout Cards forum or FCB. Then visit YouTube and see all the mail day videos. Once you're done with that visit Vaughnlive.tv or ustream and see all the group case breaks. The hobby is huge and there are plenty of kids/teenagers in it. They might not buy cards from Wal Mart (they're smarter and know hobby product is better than retail) but they are active all over the Internet.

[Rich Klein]

There wsa a 13 year old (or so) dealer doing his first show and his whole family was into collecting including his grand mother.

He was mentioning to one of the other dealers (I only caught part of the conversation) about some really new scholl internet trading forum which invoved doing everything with videos on line. I'll find out more but the kids who get into collecting will be using new tools to collect we do not know about.

Heck, I'm not on this yet but apparently reddit is where it's at for social media and facebook is over the hill

Rich

P.S. While I like when people agree with me -- I still think Brooks will fade into history (outside Baltimore) as Cal will be the forever legend in Baltimore.

Heck, at yesterday's show for the first time I've been dong that show, I actually had people asking for Pudge and Ryan cards and their best days were only 10-20 years ago.