Do you worry about our hobby dying?

[ajjohnsonsoxfan]

I don't think it's a secret that baseball continues to lose fans to the NFL, NBA and Soccer. Is there a possibility that long term card prices decline as there are less and less people interested in the sport and as a result card collecting as a hobby. Is the finite supply of pre-war cards a blessing or a curse in attracting new collectors? Would love to see some data on the health of the hobby over the last 20-30 years and future projections....

[Louieman]

I'd hold off on baseball's obituary because of the problems the NFL has, as well as the ref problem in basketball. Baseball was so weak in 1994, and its bounced back big time since then. America is a football nation, don't get me wrong. But I think baseball has been around for too long to fade into nonexistence. It's part of our cultural identity at this point. I think the memorabilia that goes with it will hang around just fine, even if the country itself falls down. Cards and other stuff like that are already treated like museum pieces, imagine what it will be like tens or hundreds of years down the road.

[Econteachert205]

I wonder about collectors outside the us, baseball being a global game and all.

[insccollectibles]

According to the players contracts, which in part is a reflection of advertising dollars the game is doing fine.

[ksabet]

Not sure about what will happen to baseball...but I don't worry about it.

[Sean]

I'm a lot more worried about me dying than I am about the hobby dying.

Baseball games televised nationally have been steadily losing ratings, but ratings for local broadcasts and attendance are up over the last 20 years.
I don't know which specific sets will do well, but vintage cards in general should continue to be popular, IMO.

[Ladder7]

Don't worry. ARod'son the way back!

[auggiedoggy]

Originally Posted by Sean

I'm a lot more worried about me dying than I am about the hobby dying.

Baseball games televised nationally have been steadily losing ratings, but ratings for local broadcasts and attendance are up over the last 20 years.
I don't know which specific sets will do well, but vintage cards in general should continue to be popular, IMO.

I don't worry about the hobby or myself dying. My wife might worry about me dying or at least, she's putting on a convincing act that she's concerned.

[ATP]

I wouldn't have any worry at all about the next thirty or forty years at least. There are a lot of folks in their twenties and thirties who collect...and finally now have the expendable income. They grew up collecting in the eighties and nineties...likely got out of the hobby for a little while around high school and college age, then come back to it when life settles down a little more.

A lot of people I talk to are in their thirties and they assume they must be part of the younger group, but that group is actually quite large.

Collectors typically collect until life no longer allows them to, so there are quite a few good decades left from that group alone. There are also a lot of people in their teens who collect modern, and occasionally drift to vintage. Beyond fifty years or so who know what people will be doing, but I don't think most of us here will have to worry about it dying out during our lifetime.

[bigtrain]

Are you a baseball fan to the exclusion of all other sports?
I am not and I am guessing that few are. Considering the growth
Of the US population, I would guess that there are
more baseball fans today than ever. I have no concerns about
baseball or the hobby going away.

[Al C.risafulli]

Not at all.

More than 73 million MLB tickets were sold in 2014. Just north of 30 million were sold in 1974. This past season, the team ranked lowest in attendance - Tampa Bay - drew 1,446,000 fans. That would have ranked them 7th in 1974. This past season, 11 teams outdrew the #1 ranked team in 1974.

None of that factors in all the heavy cable TV contracts, 24-hour sports news networks, sports talk radio, and big money transactions in our hobby that make news on a regular basis. I think there's more awareness, exposure, an interest in our hobby than ever before, and as people get older and want to reconnect with nostalgia, I think that's only going upward.

-Al

[Brian Van Horn]

Just perusing the comments.

If we are talking about baseball, no problem.

If we are talking about card collecting, and in particular before WWII card collecting, there is a problem.

For the hobby of Pre-WWII card collecting to continue-not so much flourish-you need new blood. You also need a combination of historically curious combined with baseball enthusiast. That mindset has been shrinking and to an extent dying. It's not a large group these days. Just hoping for some new fans of old collecting.

[JollyElm]

I certainly see the death knell coming. Whereas in my youth (during the 70's) we collected like crazy, always buying more cards with whatever nickels and dime we could rustle up. After we got our cards home and sorted everything into teams, the very first thing we'd do is trade with our friends, trying to get our favorite players and complete that year's set. Flipping cards was also the norm and yes, you'd put the scrubby players into your bicycle spokes to make that great noise. This is what summers were about and nobody, I mean NOBODY, cared about condition or centering. We would wrap our cards in rubber bands or put bunches of them in our back pockets.

Fast forward to today. A kid goes into a baseball card store, spends the money his mom or dad gave him on a ridiculously overpriced pack of cards. When he finds the ubiquitous insert, he immediately tilts it in the light, checking out the corners and what not and says to his friends, "This is definitely a 9, maybe a 9.5. Hand me that Beckett over there." Does he trade, flip or do anything else but care about the value of the card?? No frickin' way. And before anyone else even has a chance to touch that card, he has it in a soft sleeve and a top loader.

So it's tough to see how these kids will, as they grow older, develop an actual appreciation for the cards themselves. How they tie into the great game of baseball and the wonderment of their youth. They might as well just spend their money on gold instead, like William Devane is always yapping about in those commercials.

[Mountaineer1999]

Originally Posted by JollyElm

I certainly see the death knell coming. Whereas in my youth (during the 70's) we collected like crazy, always buying more cards with whatever nickels and dime we could rustle up. After we got our cards home and sorted everything into teams, the very first thing we'd do is trade with our friends, trying to get our favorite players and complete that year's set. Flipping cards was also the norm and yes, you'd put the scrubby players into your bicycle spokes to make that great noise. This is what summers were about and nobody, I mean NOBODY, cared about condition or centering. We would wrap our cards in rubber bands or put bunches of them in our back pockets.

Fast forward to today. A kid goes into a baseball card store, spends the money his mom or dad gave him on a ridiculously overpriced pack of cards. When he finds the ubiquitous insert, he immediately tilts it in the light, checking out the corners and what not and says to his friends, "This is definitely a 9, maybe a 9.5. Hand me that Beckett over there." Does he trade, flip or do anything else but care about the value of the card?? No frickin' way. And before anyone else even has a chance to touch that card, he has it in a soft sleeve and a top loader.

So it's tough to see how these kids will, as they grow older, develop an actual appreciation for the cards themselves. How they tie into the great game of baseball and the wonderment of their youth. They might as well just spend their money on gold instead, like William Devane is always yapping about in those commercials.

+1 spot on

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by JollyElm

I certainly see the death knell coming. Whereas in my youth (during the 70's) we collected like crazy, always buying more cards with whatever nickels and dime we could rustle up. After we got our cards home and sorted everything into teams, the very first thing we'd do is trade with our friends, trying to get our favorite players and complete that year's set. Flipping cards was also the norm and yes, you'd put the scrubby players into your bicycle spokes to make that great noise. This is what summers were about and nobody, I mean NOBODY, cared about condition or centering. We would wrap our cards in rubber bands or put bunches of them in our back pockets.

Fast forward to today. A kid goes into a baseball card store, spends the money his mom or dad gave him on a ridiculously overpriced pack of cards. When he finds the ubiquitous insert, he immediately tilts it in the light, checking out the corners and what not and says to his friends, "This is definitely a 9, maybe a 9.5. Hand me that Beckett over there." Does he trade, flip or do anything else but care about the value of the card?? No frickin' way. And before anyone else even has a chance to touch that card, he has it in a soft sleeve and a top loader.

So it's tough to see how these kids will, as they grow older, develop an actual appreciation for the cards themselves. How they tie into the great game of baseball and the wonderment of their youth. They might as well just spend their money on gold instead, like William Devane is always yapping about in those commercials.

+1

Then all the scammers are getting much better at what they do. I do not think it will be long before even the grading companies can not tell the difference between real and fake. Even graded cards now are a crap shoot, SGC and old PSA slabs are super easy to crack and put in a reprint, trimmed, or lower end card and then you have the guy in Mexico from the PSA scam.

[chipperhank44]

Originally Posted by JollyElm

I certainly see the death knell coming. Whereas in my youth (during the 70's) we collected like crazy, always buying more cards with whatever nickels and dime we could rustle up. After we got our cards home and sorted everything into teams, the very first thing we'd do is trade with our friends, trying to get our favorite players and complete that year's set. Flipping cards was also the norm and yes, you'd put the scrubby players into your bicycle spokes to make that great noise. This is what summers were about and nobody, I mean NOBODY, cared about condition or centering. We would wrap our cards in rubber bands or put bunches of them in our back pockets.

Fast forward to today. A kid goes into a baseball card store, spends the money his mom or dad gave him on a ridiculously overpriced pack of cards. When he finds the ubiquitous insert, he immediately tilts it in the light, checking out the corners and what not and says to his friends, "This is definitely a 9, maybe a 9.5. Hand me that Beckett over there." Does he trade, flip or do anything else but care about the value of the card?? No frickin' way. And before anyone else even has a chance to touch that card, he has it in a soft sleeve and a top loader.

So it's tough to see how these kids will, as they grow older, develop an actual appreciation for the cards themselves. How they tie into the great game of baseball and the wonderment of their youth. They might as well just spend their money on gold instead, like William Devane is always yapping about in those commercials.

I think there are a number of younger collectors on this board (myself included) who obsessed over perfect corners, serial numbers, shiny refractors, and strong sub-grades. But sooner or later the allure of owning something that is actually rare and not just manufactured to create the appearance of rarity takes over and vintage collecting is the next step. Also, getting burned by a few can't miss prospects or dealing with the inevitable depreciation of modern cards eventually turns collectors eyes to the appealing predictability of the vintage market. Then, once you buy your first vintage card, you experience the history and the work of art you are holding and it's hook line and sinker. IMO, as long as there is a modern card market, there is a pipeline of new vintage collectors.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by bigtrain

Are you a baseball fan to the exclusion of all other sports?
I am not and I am guessing that few are. Considering the growth
Of the US population, I would guess that there are
more baseball fans today than ever. I have no concerns about
baseball or the hobby going away.

This. Tom nails it. The idea that baseball is losing fans to football, hockey, basketball, soccer, etc is flawed. I love football, though I do admit that I've lost interest somewhat recently because of rule changes, and the scandals going on with some of the players. I also think the NFL Commissioner is an idiot that needs to step down. But, I've been a die hard Green Bay Packers fan pretty much since birth. I think my first word was Lombardi. I will love the Packers until the day I drop dead, and therefore, I will support the NFL, too. But I have loved the game of baseball, and the Brewers, for nearly as long. I love going to baseball games. I love watching it on television. I love reading about it, watching documentaries about it. Seeing old clips. And, of course, I love collecting baseball cards.

Baseball attendance in 2014 was about 74 million people. That's the seventh highest in the history of the game. Viewership of baseball might be down, but I think it's because there are so many more choices now. The game itself is not hurting at all. In fact, I would say that it's thriving.

I'm not worried about the hobby, either. I see new people joining the forum, and a good portion of them are much younger. That's encouraging. They're not only getting into the hobby, they're expressing an interest in the history of the game, and the vintage and pre-war periods. And if these new members are having fun, they're telling their friends, and some of them will join, too. When they come here, I will welcome them. I will offer to do whatever I can to help them. If I can provide advice, or education to help them make smart decisions, I will do that. I encourage people to send me messages with questions they might have. I will spend all the time needed to help them, and if I don't know an answer, I will work with them to find that answer.

Life is too short to worry about something that is beyond my control. I will enjoy the hobby as much as humanly possible while I am here. I will do everything I can to help my fellow hobbyists of all ages do the same. For my part, I will treat the people I meet with respect. I will deal with them honestly. I will do everything I can to set a good example, and I will report people I see that are trying to cheat, or steal from other hobbyists. That is all I can do. If everybody on this forum pledges to do the same, then I think our hobby will continue on for a long time. Baseball is always going to have a following. And naturally, there will always be people who want to learn about the game's history. And as long as there are baseball fans interested in the game's history, our hobby will continue on.

[MattyC]

I agree the whole "losing fans to NFL" logic is specious. They are not mutually exclusive. Not to mention the problems plaguing the NFL at the moment. In fact, my broader circle of friends and I have grown disinterested in the NFL in our 30's and more interested in MLB and NBA.

The "hobby future" thread seems to surface every few months in one form or another. There are enough passionate collectors out there to sustain it for many, many years. America's pastime, its fans, and the collectors of its historic memorabilia will be doing just fine in the decades to come.

And as someone else above said so well, our own health and well-being is much more likely to encounter problems-- so we better enjoy our cards while the getting's good.

[Bosox Blair]

Every month or two somebody starts a post wondering about the future of the hobby. These posts usually start with some assumed premise that we are all meant to accept. My problem is that most of these are untrue.

The 2014 MLB season had the 7th highest attendance of all time. The last 10 years have been among the best attended seasons in history.

So by this measure baseball is not losing fans.

Then we get the "card collectors are all old guys" premise for the hobby dying. Yet every poll on Net54 shows that pre-war collectors average only about 40 years of age.

Based on the actual facts, there is nothing wrong with the health of baseball or the hobby.

Cheers,
Blair

[tschock]

Originally Posted by Bosox Blair

The 2014 MLB season had the 7th highest attendance of all time. The last 10 years have been among the best attended seasons in history.

So by this measure baseball is not losing fans.

Not to mention record setting minor league attendances as well.

[HalChaseCollector]

I am 16 and think I can say in confidence that we have no interest in baseball cards. I do but I have never met a single other kid who collects modern or vintage. Also most kids don't even care about anyone who played because 1950 unless their name is Babe Ruth or Ted Williams. None of my friends know who Tris Speaker is or Walter Johnson! They think why have a baseball card when you can look up everything on the Internet? Also modern cards are kind of seen as a little kid thing. 6 and 7 year olds collect but give up when they get older. I'm starting to ramble but here is my general message- my generation doesn't appreciate cards and that is bad for the future of the hobby.

[Rollingstone206]

...

[freakhappy]

Do I worry about our hobby dying...not at all. What I do believe is that it will probably change with time, like a lot of things do. When I was growing up in the 80's and 90's, collecting baseball cards wasn't something you did because you thought about the amount of money a card was worth or resell necessarily, you did it because you loved baseball and being able to collect your favorite players and team made it worth your while. It's a lot different nowadays...a great deal of people are solely in it for the money. There are people on this site that don't give a lick about baseball...couldn't tell you much history about the game throughout any decade, but they have stellar card collections...this is what worries me. Card collecting has become a money thing more than collecting, but I can't blame anyone as this is how the hobby has shifted for the most part. Card collecting used to be simple and enjoyable, now it's mostly about money and a card collector that actually does so for enjoyment is a rarity.

Me, personally...I don't think much about the state of the hobby, I'm just enjoying the ride. I will attempt to get my boys to like sports and possibly ball cards, but this isn't something I will try to force them to do. They are growing up in a different era and looking back, it was a whole lot different than thirty years ago...cards were easy to collect, a lot of kids collected them, they were relatively cheap to buy and you could do anything with them and have fun! Today everything is so condition sensitive, it drives me nuts!

I still collect modern cards, mainly a few players that I enjoyed when I was a kid...nothing like turning back the clock or obtaining the cards that you never thought you would be able to when you were a kid...priceless!

[the 'stache]

There is a romanticism to the game's early years that today's game will never have. You'll still have people that closely identify with the players they grew up watching, but Mike Trout will never have the mystique that Babe Ruth or Willie Mays had, and still have.

[barrysloate]

The hobby might get a little smaller, and prices certainly can soften a bit, but there will always be a market for baseball memorabilia, and there will always be people collecting cards, photographs, autographs, etc. It might not even be such a bad thing if there was a little retrenchment in the future. Prices for some things are incredibly high, and many collectors are priced out. A softening of the market might even make the hobby a little more accessible.

But the hobby won't die. It will merely seek its own level.

[SteveMitchell]

My concern is not about the hobby dying. It has definitely changed since the days of 300+ page SCD's and 100,000 National Convention attendees. I'm more concerned about the economic outlook for the United States in particular and the world generally.

[bobbyw8469]

Originally Posted by SteveMitchell

My concern is not about the hobby dying. It has definitely changed since the days of 300+ page SCD's and 100,000 National Convention attendees. I'm more concerned about the economic outlook for the United States in particular and the world generally.

Amen brother.

[alaskapaul3]

My two cents :There is no immediate concern, but

For those of us that still have brick and mortar card stores to go to.....when you stop in , do you see a lot of kids in the store ? Of the kids that are in the store, how many of them are going through baseball cards versus football and basketball and Pokemon cards. The young posters on this thread made some very valid points.

Coin collecting had a serious upturn in the past 15 years with the production of the state quarters. It caught the kid's interest and cost next to nothing for them to start. My guess is some of those kids will be buying slabbed coins 20 years from now, and not just 21st century coins , but also 18th,19th and 20th century coins as they have more of a budget to do so. Cheap packs of cards from the card companies would be a good way of ensuring future collectors in the hobby.

-Paul

[packs]

I don't think this has been brought up in the thread yet.

For all of you who think the hobby will be fine, what do you think about the emergence of card museums and the same dealers at every show?

I've been going to White Plains shows for years. I rarely ever see a new vintage dealer. It is always the same five or six guys with the same material with the same stickers on them.

If the hobby is going to be fine and new blood will always pour in, how come there aren't any new dealers? Maybe this is just a product of White Plains. But I get the feeling there is stale blood at all the shows based on the post-show reports I read for other areas.

[ullmandds]

I have voiced my skepticism regarding the future of the hobby numerous times...ask archive! I think the rarities and hobby icons should be ok for the foreseeable future...although I DO feel that down the road...maybe 20-40 yrs from now there will be a glut of vintage...especially the common/not so desirable stuff which may drag down values across the board.

The hobby needs something new and exciting to drag youngsters with the collecting gene into the hobby.

Like at the very least all ballparks should give away cards to the kids atleast one time/yr(giveaway day). Or offer a card to every kid upon entering every or select home games with some form of lottery/raffle/prize/interactive activity at stake.

I think a "grassroots" movement at the ballparks could help.