T206 back scarcity and pricing analysis

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Posted By: Frank C

I subtotaled the T206 PSA populations by listed back and came up with the following chart. I'm no economics expert, but if this sample is representative of the total population and there were no major hiccups in my subtotaling, the trend indicates that the market may need an adjustment on a few of these multipliers. If a subscriber to SGC could do the same maybe we could learn something. Maybe I should have started accumulating Broadleaf 350s before posting this

Back PopMult
Piedmont 6881 1
Cap 3009 1
Old Mill 613 1.3
polar bear4511.3
sovereign4051.3
el principe1661.3
tolstoi 1072
hindu 674
cycle 602
american beauty512
carolina brt225
lenox 1217
uzit 1030
broad leaf98
drum 565

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Posted By: Jim Dale

I take it the Broadleaf 350 and 460 are not divided?

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Posted By: barrysloate

I'm not sure every T206 collector would agree that that is the precise order of scarcity. I would put Sovereign at third most common, and Cycle and Hindu are tougher than American Beauty, to cite two.

That is only a list of cards submitted for grading, and does not represent the total population of T206.

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Posted By: Frank C

jim - unfortunately the PSA population report does not differentiate between different series of the same back. In fact for many cards backs are not listed at all.

barry - I understand this just a sample of the overall T206 population, but I would argue that it would be a relatively unbiased sample, as opposed to the distribution of fronts (subjects), where you'll find many more Cobbs than Hinchmans. Unlike fronts, the back pricing is purely a function of scarcity. I'd be interested to see as large a sample as we could get - to see how well the numbers correlate with the perception.

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Posted By: barrysloate

There are many past threads that go into relative back scarcity, and the multiplier effect, in great detail. A collector by the name of Bill Brown has done perhaps the most comprehensive study to date, and there are other board members with data, too.