How many cards are out there

[Archive]

Posted By: Paul

In one of the other recent threads, someone estimated that there are about 1 Million T206 cards in existence, or about 2,000 examples of each common card.

Does anyone out there have informed guesses for how many copies of each card exist in other sets? For example, how many copies of your average Mayo are out there? How about E-107 or any of the other (more common) E cards? I know that Alan Hager's book (yuck) took a rough stab at this with a rarity rating system, but I don't know how accurate his estimates were.

Thanks.

[Archive]

Posted By: David

Considering no one knows the exact number of T206 Wagners, the most famous and followed card, it's going to be tough getting a handle on most mainstream issues.

[Archive]

Posted By: brian parker

Although no population numbers are mentioned, Pete Calderon's Caramel Card site offers a great chart on his opinion on the scarcity of the various E90 to E107 issues. Having been a collector for many years, his listing of relative scarcity within these issues coincided very closely with my ideas too, so I feel he has a good feel for the subject. Here is his website:

http://www.caramel-cards.com/


Brian

[Archive]

Posted By: jeff s

I figure that coming up with correct numbers is probably impossible.

BUT...perhaps there are ways to get a decent grasp on the numbers.

I've heard estimates that there are ~50 T206 Wagners. This we may have to take as faith, but as more attention has been paid to that card than most others, the estimate is credible.

Surely we can determine how many T206 Wagners have been publicly sold over the course of the last year. Let's say, for the sake of demonstration, that there have been two public sales. Thus, let's generalize to all T206s and say that for every ONE T206 card of a certain player sold per year, there are 25 in existence.

Then, let's say we do a survey for a year, or three months, or something, and figure out how many T206 Malarkeys (or somebody) are publicly sold, including those in sets, lots, etc. Not an easy task, but possible. Multiply that number by 25 and the total is some indication of how many are out there.

Of course there are problems with this type of common multiplier. The first two I can think of are these:
1. Extremely popular & rare cards are traded hands more frequently because of their high value and their consistent collecting interest.
2. Cheap cards are traded hands more frequently because people buy them as parts of lots when they may not really want them (and thus resell, altering the "public sale" numbers), and because they are cheap -- i.e. more people can buy them more often.

To some extent, I would think those cancel each other out.

There are problems with a one-year survey, too, b/c of varying collector interest in different issues, players, and the like, but I would think that using a multiplier from, say, research on T206 green portrait Cobbs may well be applicable to other T206s, or other Cobbs that are not exceedingly rare.

[Archive]

Posted By: Marc S.

I find it somewhat surprising that only 21 of them have been graded so far...

I know of at least five that are ungraded in private or public collections -- however, I nonetheless find it a surprising claim that there are more ungraded than graded, for a card of this value and stature.

Of the 21 that are graded, they are all graded by PSA. SGC has not, to my knowledge, graded a T-206 Wagner to this day.

19 are graded by PSA

1 is graded PSA 8 NM/MT and is Brian Seigel's hands.

1 is authenticated, but not graded, because it is the "partially burned" example.

Does everyone else out there believe that there are 20-30 ungraded of this Honus Wagner T-206 card out there that are a) known to exist and b) not graded by PSA (or any other reputable grading company...?)

[Archive]

Posted By: Glen V

I would expect many Wagners to be in the hands of long time collectors. They've probably been collecting before PSA existed, and know a thing or two about cards. Why would they need a grading company to handle (then mis-label) their prized card?

Grading cards isn't rocket science, I hope most of us can do it. At times I feel crazy spending $1,000 for a piece of cardboard, but don't want to pay $2,000 just because the cardboard has plastic around it.

[Archive]

Posted By: jay behrens

Many of the Wagner's are in the hands on long time hobby veterans that would never, under any circumstances, slab one of the cards in their collection.

Jay

[Archive]

Posted By: B Hodes

I think that the only reason T206 Wagners get graded (and the reason its PSA) is that they going to be sold -- it is only at that point grading of such a card becomes a worthwhile proposition.
By the way despite the number of errors the grading companies make I think they would be careful to label a T206 Wagner correctly.
The other problem with relying on the grading companies Pop reports for the true number of any card (especially an expensive card) that exists is resubmitting. When you think of it the "Pop reports" of a rather deceptive misnomer -- i.e. they are really submission reports and only measure how many time a given card has been submitted. As we all know a given specimen of card may be submitted over and over and over (especially if its in a dealer's hands) because of the extraordinary difference in price between grades. I don't know if any Wagner specimens have been resubmitted -- but certainly that would skew the "Population Reports" as measures of the population of a card rather than the number of times a card has been submitted.

[Archive]

Posted By: Wayne Grove

It would be interesting to know just exactly how many exists. This is something that I have tried to determine for some time and it is interesting how many times some of them have changed hands. I think Brian is correct in stating that they get graded when they are getting ready to be sold. In Beckett Sports Collectibles Vintage issue #131 we discussed the Wagner's history and came up with 16 different cards that we have scans for (all are pictured in that issue). We had one that we were able to get a scan of before it was restored, after it was restored and then after most of the restoration was removed that was quite interesting. There are at least 4 others that we know of that we did not have scans for.

[Archive]

Posted By: Julie Vognar

No surpirse: There are far far more Old Judges than any other kind of 19th century card. There are a surprising number of Mayos. There are almost no Yum Yums. There are 10 Peck and Snyders (not further broken down) reported.

Even though only some 19th century card owners rerport faithfully, it's still interesting.

[Archive]

Posted By: Brian C Daniels

And there are several men with giant dollar valued collections who know nothing about us,the currect market or SMR's et.........there are 75 plus known Wagners....ask the guys who run the big auction houses because they are always trying to get the old timers to sell them the stuff!

[Archive]

Posted By: fkw

My number of Wagners That Ive been useing for years has been 65, with only 2-3 being Piedmont. How many Piedmont Wagners do you think/know are out there? I dont know where I got the 65, it was most likely from a reliable source I read up on /or talked with back in the early 80s.

I believe the numbers in existance of most of the rarer "Type" cards are in numbers well below 25 of each, some closer to 5. Thats why many of the "uncataloged" cards are still being discovered and cataloged each year. Some sets Im sure have less than 100 total cards known, as you only see a couple examples for sale each year. By the way.... How many of you (besides Leon ) have a E123, E222, T217, Western Playground, Honey Boy, Ullman Postcard, etc. in your collection??? There arent many of them around. Frank

[Archive]

Posted By: dan mckee

Known Wagners are well over 75 probably pushing 100, I agree with Brian on this.

[Archive]

Posted By: Julie Vognar

...

[Archive]

Posted By: David

This thread clearly proves my earlier assertion that no one knows exactly how many T206 Wagners there are.

[Archive]

Posted By: jay behrens

I remember talking to old time collectors back in the early 80s and up to that point it was pretty much known where all the Wagner's were. I remeber one guy telling me that one time someone owned 4-5 Wagners at the same time back in the 60s.

As always, Mark Macrae would be the guy with the most knowledge in this area.

Jay

[Archive]

Posted By: leon

Julie, I want to thank you for making me laugh. And that is in a good way I hope we meet someday and can talk about stuff in person...not sure where our conversation would lead as I believe we both could have some pretty good stories, about cards AND other stuff......I agree with Frank on this issue of rarity...regards all

[Archive]

Posted By: David

Julie's correct. The correct total of Wagners is probably not a whole number.

[Archive]

Posted By: Julie Vognar

...especially Leon.