PWCC E98 Black Swamp (De-Identi-) Find

[T206Collector]

Including last night's (April 9) auction, over the past month (since March 12), PWCC has auctioned 62 E98s, many of which were very high grade, and almost none of which were identified on the flip as Black Swamp Find (perhaps just two: Bender Red PSA 9, and Bridwell Orange PSA 7)

As far as I can tell, up to 59 of these appear to be new additions to the BSF universe (not the Wagner Blue AUT, or the Bender, Bridwell), as opposed to cross overs or reholders -- albeit not labeled as so. For example, there are no BSF Brown Reds below a 7:

https://www.psacard.com/pop/baseball...8-set-30/36067

But, on March 12, PWCC sold a 6 which looks like it came from the same collection:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1910-E98-Se...p2047675.l2557

Similarly, there are no BSF Bresnahan Reds below a 6. But last night, PWCC sold a 5 from the same collection:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1910-E98-Se...IAAOSwh8xcn6cv

Here is the PSA cert link for that Bresnahan, which shows that it was sold by PWCC last night (and that there are only 3 graded higher - of course, only if you don't count the BSF reds, where 17 more are graded higher):

https://www.psacard.com/cert/42404232/

If I am right -- as I previously mentioned on this thread (http://www.net54baseball.com/showthr...ighlight=swamp) -- I think what is happening here is the BSF family members (or their associates) have held onto some of these since 2012, and are "strategically" leaking them into the market. As I mentioned in that thread, I have exchanged a few correspondence with the family, and understand that their deal with Heritage was for 5 years, which expired in 2017.

And the serial numbers line up in HUGE quantities. So, if someone is reholdering a bunch of "Black Swamp Finds", why did they leave Bender Red 9 and Bridwell Orange 7 off the list?

Spot checking a lot of these, I identified 175 newly holdered E98s:

From 42404231 through 42404280 (50 cards)

From 42404294 through 42404323 (30 cards)

From 42404331 through 42404374 (44 cards)

From 41243594 through 41243644 (51 cards)

That's 175 new E98s that have been certified by PSA, 59 of which were sold by PWCC over the past month. The ones that are identified as publicly sold on PSA's website are all, I believe, identified as PWCC sales. This suggests that PWCC has (perhaps well) over 100 left to sell in upcoming auctions.

I'd be really interested to learn whether someone thinks these are just PSA re-holders or cross-overs from SGC. Though why somebody would spend so much money to reholder 175 E98s to remove the BSF designation would certainly surprise me. Otherwise, this means there could be well over 100 minty fresh E98s still to hit the market from the 2012 find. And, sadly, it lends credence to the conspiracy theory that someone is still minting these...

Somebody please prove me wrong! I encourage you to check my work at https://www.psacard.com/cert/14635406

[x2drich2000]

I think these may be new releases held back from the original find. When the show Strange Inheritance aired about the BSF, the primary contact admitted on the show that some family members decided to hold onto their portion of the collection and not consign them to Heritage. The show claimed the total number found was over 800. How many were originally held back and what the actual total was, who knows.

However, just to put some rough numbers to it, a search of Heritage website for "Black Swamp Find" comes up with 570 past results including 1 lot of 29 and 1 lot of 27 for a total of 624 cards (not factoring in any BSF cards resold or keyword hyping/spamming). Add the 175 newly graded examples and you get 799.

DJ

[bigfish]

I think there’s a lot more that were held back that are now being sprinkled into the market. I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a lot more to come.

[groundskeeper]

The PWCC BSF Bender sold for $2000 more than a Memory Lane BSF Bender (of the same grade) 3 days prior. Maybe the drug dealer/money launderer who bought it will feel bad when he finds out there's a bunch more cards yet to hit the market.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Paul good research, to me the most likely explanation is the family held some back and/or moved some other than to Heritage.

[mechanicalman]

Originally Posted by groundskeeper

The PWCC BSF Bender sold for $2000 more than a Memory Lane BSF Bender (of the same grade) 3 days prior. Maybe the drug dealer/money launderer who bought it will feel bad when he finds out there's a bunch more cards yet to hit the market.

Wow. Aggressive.

[RCMcKenzie]

My understanding is that he found them in grandpa's attic and the rest is history. It sort of ruined e98's for me as I have not bid on one since 2011.

[Goudey77]

I guess i'm not understanding why this ruins the demand or why collectors would fall out of favor for the e98's? They are still relatively scarce. The recent sale prices show that there is little impact to the demand.

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by Goudey77

I guess i'm not understanding why this ruins the demand or why collectors would fall out of favor for the e98's? They are still relatively scarce. The recent sale prices show that there is little impact to the demand.

Relative to what? PSA 3 T206s?

[swarmee]

This set has a weird dichotomy that prior to the find, a PSA 5 was a wonderful conditioned card and would sell for a premium since the majority of known examples were in lower grade. So everyone that bought in to mid-grade cards prior to the find spent a bunch of money.
Once the find occurred, those original collectors probably felt bait and switched just because their classic set which was high grade at the time, relatively speaking, would now be considered low to midgrade forevermore, because of BSF.

I'd probably feel the same about the thousands I've spent on accruing the highest graded PSA set of T51 Murad cards, but I knew that was a risk when I started it.

[RCMcKenzie]

When I first heard about the BSF I thought the backstory would be something like:

( " hey all, my great grandfather was the senior v.p. at Old Put Cigars and he took these 700 cards in f-nm home directly from the producer and they have not seen the light of day until now. Enjoy.")

Instead they are in nm/mt to gem mint pristine with basically no explanation.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by RCMcKenzie

When I first heard about the BSF I thought the backstory would be something like:

( " hey all, my great grandfather was the senior v.p. at Old Put Cigars and he took these 700 cards in f-nm home directly from the producer and they have not seen the light of day until now. Enjoy.")

Instead they are in nm/mt to gem mint pristine with basically no explanation.

I think Paul alluded to this, is there any serious theory that these are not period?

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by RCMcKenzie

When I first heard about the BSF I thought the backstory would be something like:

( " hey all, my great grandfather was the senior v.p. at Old Put Cigars and he took these 700 cards in f-nm home directly from the producer and they have not seen the light of day until now. Enjoy.")

Instead they are in nm/mt to gem mint pristine with basically no explanation.

And all terribly miscut, when I can't remember ever seeing any miscut like this, before the BSF

[brianp-beme]

In the low-brow collecting world of my mind the Black Swamp Find should make E98 beaters more expensive than their much more common top grade compatriots.

Brian (In order to be fully transparent, I will disclose that I am owner of some E98 beaters, and thus would likely benefit from such a hierarchial flip-flop).

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by x2drich2000

I think these may be new releases held back from the original find. When the show Strange Inheritance aired about the BSF, the primary contact admitted on the show that some family members decided to hold onto their portion of the collection and not consign them to Heritage. The show claimed the total number found was over 800. How many were originally held back and what the actual total was, who knows.

However, just to put some rough numbers to it, a search of Heritage website for "Black Swamp Find" comes up with 570 past results including 1 lot of 29 and 1 lot of 27 for a total of 624 cards (not factoring in any BSF cards resold or keyword hyping/spamming). Add the 175 newly graded examples and you get 799.

DJ

If I added correctly, the PSA Pop Report shows only 616 graded and in most instances only 18 of each player have been graded. 616 in the Pop but 799 based on the count???? Also seems odd that with as many cards as were found and the different quantities that there would be such a uniform population of each player. Is it possible PSA is not updating the Pop for these cards?

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by RCMcKenzie

My understanding is that he found them in grandpa's attic and the rest is history. It sort of ruined e98's for me as I have not bid on one since 2011.

I totally agree!!!! I collect color runs...and I have an e98 color run of jennings. It took me years to complete...as these cards are/were really hard to find especially in a certain color background...and as has been stated I think there were a few higher grade e98's out there...but nothing like the BSF provided!!!!

I was glad there were few jennings cards in the find...but I always felt these BSF cards shouldn't warrant similar values to "original" circulated ones.

[ullmandds]

I suppose the more I think about it the BCF find is very similar to the high-grade find of 1952 topps cards that Mr. mint bought many years ago. And likely overtime the black swamp cards will find their ways into new holders not linking them to the find and they Will get snatched up by collectors who do not know the backstory for large sums of money!!

[RCMcKenzie]

Peter- My official position is that I don't have enough information to offer an opinion as to when they were made. I don't know, and am not an expert on e98.

Pete- remember the Tango Egg find? They were not all in Mint condition, but I think it was in Louisiana and maybe Ohio has a nicer climate.

Brian, here's one I have that "presents nicely for the grade"...(I think I still have it, it's an old scan.)

[CobbSpikedMe]

Here's one of my low grade E98s. I love this card because it was from the Lionel Carter collection. The condition is horrible, but I like that Lionel was ok with it enough to have it in his collection too.


.

[pokerplyr80]

Originally Posted by groundskeeper

The PWCC BSF Bender sold for $2000 more than a Memory Lane BSF Bender (of the same grade) 3 days prior. Maybe the drug dealer/money launderer who bought it will feel bad when he finds out there's a bunch more cards yet to hit the market.

I'm not too familiar with the process, but if you wanted to launder drug money through the hobby wouldn't you buy cards for cash at a show, then sell through PWCC or another AH?

[ullmandds]

My non bsf jennings run

[T206Collector]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

My non bsf jennings run

Beautiful! From a scarcity standpoint you picked the right guy to do the run. Just one BSF Jennings and it is a 1.5.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by T206Collector

Beautiful! From a scarcity standpoint you picked the right guy to do the run. Just one BSF Jennings and it is a 1.5.

ya I lucked out in that regard!!!! there were times at nationals I'd be looking for e98's...only to find maybe a small handfull...at the whole national!!!!! That all changed after the BSF!!!!

[glynparson]

Well it wouldn’t be the internet if we didn’t have a bunch of fools with limited knowledge spouting bs conspiracy theories.

[T206Collector]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

If I added correctly, the PSA Pop Report shows only 616 graded and in most instances only 18 of each player have been graded. 616 in the Pop but 799 based on the count???? Also seems odd that with as many cards as were found and the different quantities that there would be such a uniform population of each player. Is it possible PSA is not updating the Pop for these cards?

Is your 616 just BSF? Because the 175 are not labeled BSF, but definitely came from that find.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by T206Collector

Is your 616 just BSF? Because the 175 are not labeled BSF, but definitely came from that find.

Yes just BSFs. So none of the newly graded 175 have the BSF designation? Anyway to determine if these 175 are fresh to the market as opposed to reholders for the purpose of removing the designation? And any ideas what the Pop Report figures show now on the BSF as compared to when the cards were initially graded by Heritage?

Also I have seen quite a few higher graded E98s in SGC holders some of which have the BSF designation as well.

[T206Collector]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Yes just BSFs. So none of the newly graded 175 have the BSF designation? Anyway to determine if these 175 are fresh to the market as opposed to reholders for the purpose of removing the designation? And any ideas what the Pop Report figures show now on the BSF as compared to when the cards were initially graded by Heritage?

Also I have seen quite a few higher graded E98s in SGC holders some of which have the BSF designation as well.

This link has the pop reports from 2012.

http://forum.net54baseball.com/showt...54#post1660954

A quick read suggests some reholdering for purposes of improving the grade going on. But 175 times? Seems unlikely to me, but who knows. E.g., Possible a few PSA 8 and 8.5 Benders were resubmitted and got 9s.

[swarmee]

It's also possible that people crossed over to SGC and then the next buyer moved them back to PSA. If they were cracked, they're still in the pop report. If they were crossover submissions, I think SGC should have returned the flips to PSA so they could be removed from the POP report. Heck, the people who crack them should as well.

[glchen]

I really don't get this conspiracy theory at all in that someone is still minting these. That just sounds absurd to me. For one thing, where are all the Mathewsons? After Cobb and Wagner, this would the third best card in the set.

As others have said, I think there was just a massive find where someone unearthed a bunch of these, and now are slowly releasing to the market. Who knows how big the final number is. It may be huge. That's why I've always been very cautious about buying E98's because we don't know what the final number will be at this point. However, if someone is willing to sell me a Cobb is 9 grade (PSA or SGC), I'll be happy to buy one for $3K! Still hoping it reaches that level.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by glchen

I really don't get this conspiracy theory at all in that someone is still minting these. That just sounds absurd to me. For one thing, where are all the Mathewsons? After Cobb and Wagner, this would the third best card in the set.

As others have said, I think there was just a massive find where someone unearthed a bunch of these, and now are slowly releasing to the market. Who knows how big the final number is. It may be huge. That's why I've always been very cautious about buying E98's because we don't know what the final number will be at this point. However, if someone is willing to sell me a Cobb is 9 grade (PSA or SGC), I'll be happy to buy one for $3K! Still hoping it reaches that level.

Yeah I do not think these are still being printed. Seems a bit far fetched absent evidence to the contrary. I too am waiting for prices on the Cobbs and Wagners to level out. Would love to own one of each but gonna wait until the dust settles.

[pitchernut]

Don't know if this has been posted before and sorry if it's old news but found it kind of interesting.
https://youtu.be/7W3NkTBScOo

[Vintagecatcher]

Thanks for sharing the great video. I saw the cards at the Baltimore National so it's nice to know the whole story!

Patrick

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by pitchernut

Don't know if this has been posted before and sorry if it's old news but found it kind of interesting.
https://youtu.be/7W3NkTBScOo

thx for posting...awesome video...BUT if the cards were tightly bound in twine id think they'd all have wear in that area?

[ullmandds]

Does anyone have the breakdown of the find...I know I've seen it in the past...but I can't seem to find it?

[tbob]

Originally Posted by swarmee

This set has a weird dichotomy that prior to the find, a PSA 5 was a wonderful conditioned card and would sell for a premium since the majority of known examples were in lower grade. So everyone that bought in to mid-grade cards prior to the find spent a bunch of money.
Once the find occurred, those original collectors probably felt bait and switched just because their classic set which was high grade at the time, relatively speaking, would now be considered low to midgrade forevermore, because of BSF.

I'd probably feel the same about the thousands I've spent on accruing the highest graded PSA set of T51 Murad cards, but I knew that was a risk when I started it.

Agree 100%. When I put my E98 set together there were several SGC 50's and 60's because they were the highest or 2nd highest at the time. Little did I know the Black Swamp Find was on the horizon. Luckily I bought 5 Black Swamp cards as upgrades to my set but waited until the prices started to fall. I do feel your pain though because of the glut of high graded BSF cards on the market. Still glad I have it as it is a nice small set. I'm just hoping there is never a "White Meadows Find" of pristine E94s lol...

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

Does anyone have the breakdown of the find...I know I've seen it in the past...but I can't seem to find it?

The 102nd post on this thread http://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=152726 lists the cards with cert numbers and grades that had been initially submitted.

[T206Collector]

Post 102

http://www.net54baseball.com/showpos...&postcount=102

[ullmandds]

thank you guys!

[calvindog]

Originally Posted by glchen

I really don't get this conspiracy theory at all in that someone is still minting these. That just sounds absurd to me. For one thing, where are all the Mathewsons? After Cobb and Wagner, this would the third best card in the set.

As others have said, I think there was just a massive find where someone unearthed a bunch of these, and now are slowly releasing to the market. Who knows how big the final number is. It may be huge. That's why I've always been very cautious about buying E98's because we don't know what the final number will be at this point. However, if someone is willing to sell me a Cobb is 9 grade (PSA or SGC), I'll be happy to buy one for $3K! Still hoping it reaches that level.

+1

[steve B]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

thx for posting...awesome video...BUT if the cards were tightly bound in twine id think they'd all have wear in that area?

It is surprising to see stuff stored like that with little or no damage.
It was fairly common at the time. While they're more flexible than cards, stamps were often packed that way in large quantity. Not twine, but thread, and usually a stack of 100. Usually too tight to peek at what's in the stack, but seldom any damage. In that hobby it's called bundleware.


I bought a boxful a few years ago, and when I counted, it worked out to 37,000+ of essentially the same stamp from the 1890's. A small sample found about 25% of them were a slightly less common type that has a book value of $5... so probably about 50K in catalog value.

But a $5 stamp is a harder sell then a similar card. Half catalog is common and way less in bulk. I won't live long enough to sell them individually, and my kids probably won't either.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by steve B

It is surprising to see stuff stored like that with little or no damage.
It was fairly common at the time. While they're more flexible than cards, stamps were often packed that way in large quantity. Not twine, but thread, and usually a stack of 100. Usually too tight to peek at what's in the stack, but seldom any damage. In that hobby it's called bundleware.


I bought a boxful a few years ago, and when I counted, it worked out to 37,000+ of essentially the same stamp from the 1890's. A small sample found about 25% of them were a slightly less common type that has a book value of $5... so probably about 50K in catalog value.

But a $5 stamp is a harder sell then a similar card. Half catalog is common and way less in bulk. I won't live long enough to sell them individually, and my kids probably won't either.

WOW...steve!!!