Thoughts on T206 Hoarding/Creating scarcities

[ullmandds]

So it seems that a trend has formed over the years where some people are "hoarding" certain T206's so as to create the perception/reality that they are tough to obtain...thereby driving prices up.

Such cards are:

-Titus
-Pelty
- Shag schaughnessy
-Doyle hands above head

This "tactic" seems to be working based on the "scrambling" to obtain these such cards by members of this site.

Is this justified? Is this a legitimate/effective tactic? Thoughts?

[Mikehealer]

I don't think it's as effective as that guy that's hoarding all the Miller "big glove" cards. Now that guy knows what he's doing.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

So it seems that a trend has formed over the years where some people are "hoarding" certain T206's so as to create the perception/reality that they are tough to obtain...thereby driving prices up.

Such cards are:

-Titus
-Pelty
- Shag schaughnessy
-Doyle hands above head

This "tactic" seems to be working based on the "scrambling" to obtain these such cards by members of this site.

Is this justified? Is this a legitimate/effective tactic? Thoughts?

I was under the belief that the Doyle wasn't being hoarded as much as some people were literally trying to create a scarcity by adding some extra text.

[4815162342]

Originally Posted by Mikehealer

I don't think it's as effective as that guy that's hoarding all the Miller "big glove" cards. Now that guy knows what he's doing.

I agree with you Mike.

[ullmandds]

you guys are funny...I only want 1 of each...that's not hoarding!!!

now I agree regarding the doyle...different kind of hoarding...I suppose you can add the magie/ee to that list as well.

I'm referring to the Shaughnessees...the peltys...the titusii!

If noone wants to discuss this we can discuss mello mint/t213 type 2 hof hoarding instead!!!!!

[I Only Smoke 4 the Cards]

Not my thing but to each his own. I wouldn't fault someone for having a different collecting interest.

Some people will always do this type of thing. When I was in college I was collecting the entire universe of comic books (Valiant Universe) that I read with my dad when I was a kid. Most of the collectors were helpful because the comics are not that valuable but some guys hoarded like crazy. There were some guy who bought every copy of a particular issue that was up for sale they had literally hundreds of copies.

[markf31]

I've often thought about this phenomenon but isn't one of the problems with trying to create a perceived notion of rarity/scarcity the population reports? I know the pop reports can be quite inaccurate and misleading at times given crossovers and popping to resubmit, but that only artificially inflates the populations. Its not like someone can deflate the population numbers when they hoard.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

you guys are funny...I only want 1 of each...that's not hoarding!!!

now I agree regarding the doyle...different kind of hoarding...I suppose you can add the magie/ee to that list as well.

I'm referring to the Shaughnessees...the peltys...the titusii!

If noone wants to discuss this we can discuss mello mint/t213 type 2 hof hoarding instead!!!!!

It's only been 27 minutes since you started the thread Pete. Give it a few minutes, there will be more responses.

The hoarding of the players you mentioned is a good subject. The only one I see that way is the Shag card......and maybe the Titus, a little bit. But mainly I think they are just poses that are collected more....like your Big Glove dude and this Oakes pose...

[Jayworld]

Last year I thought I would start getting all the different backs of the Wiltse portrait with cap (not sure why I like that card, but I always have), but after acquiring a Sweet Caporal, Piedmont, and Old Mill example, I changed gears and decided to sell all but the SC and focus on getting one of each T206 that I like. So, was I a hoarder for a brief time? No, I don't think so; I think different back collecting of the same card is different than trying to buy up all examples of a certain card in the set….

Regarding the topic, are we talking about getting all cards, for example, Titus, available, or buying all the cards of a particular back, or ???

[ullmandds]

Now I'm not talking about back runs here...that is not hoarding...I repeat...NOT HOARDING!!!!!!

[Pat R]

Pete, I don't know how effective it really is, in the end the hoarder is the one
who is overpaying for most of these cards. The people who are benefitting
from this are those that are selling them for 5x+ what they payed for them.

I for one will never buy a Titus for what they are selling for now. Two recent
sales: Titus PSA 3 $290 Dahlen (Brooklyn) PSA 3 $305. I know you don't collect t206's anymore but if you did which one would you choose?

[MVSNYC]

"...so as to create the perception/reality that they are tough to obtain."

I could be wrong, but i doubt these collectors are intentionally doing this to create scarcity and drive up prices. collectors (myself included) can be very "OCD", and collecting multiples of a player (i don't do this, for the record), can be part of their collecting habits/goals.

I really don't care if someone buys 40 (or more) of the same player, to each his own. seems like the people that get pist are the ones having to pay high prices for these cards. me, i could care less.

[bn2cardz]

I consider myself a type collector, but there are a couple cards that I have hoarded. I have to remind myself to stop buying the card I have enough. It is like how Matt described it in the Rickey Henderson thread:

Originally Posted by MattyC

I feel like Mel Gibson in CONSPIRACY THEORY with Catcher In The Rye; the way he felt compelled to buy every copy he saw

I am not doing it to drive prices, but when I see the card I just have to put a bid in for it. I am not a very good hoarder because I have less than 10 and there are several on ebay that I have passed on to buy something else (though it was hard).

[barrysloate]

It's nearly impossible to corner the market on any T206 when there is so many of each player available. Buying thirty or forty Tituses won't make a dent when there are several thousand out there. Eventually a collector doing that will burn out...hopefully.

[tedzan]

Hey Pete

I don't know about Pelty and Titus......but, as you know the Joe Doyle is a known phenomena dating back to the early 1980's (ala Larry Fritsch, etc.).

The Shaughnessy card has always been a "toughie", going back to the 1970's. Frank has always had a strong following.....he is in 3 - Canadian HOF's,
former International League President, etc., etc. His T206 is not tough because someone(s) are hoarding it.




TED Z

[DeadBallEraCubs]

Before I had to sell my collection off in 2008-09, I collected strictly Cubs T206's with the "CUBS" across the chest. These were the cards I liked to collect the most, many of which had Hindu backs. I of course went after the Hindu's but then started focusing on the Lundgren EPDG back and of course my favorite card from the set back then, Reulbach (Glove Showing).

I ended up hoarding these cards but it wasn't to drive prices up. I tend to find myself appreciating "weathered" cards more then higher grades. I think each individual card exhibits character this way and has a story. Where has it been, who owned it, how did it survive 100+ years?? For that reason, I collected as many of my favorite cards as I could. When it was all said and done, I had 38 Reulbach (Glove Showing) and 17 Lundgren (Chicago). Those were the ones I collected the most but still had a whole slew of the other "CUBS" cards that I collected multiple backs for.

I think there may be a few out there that have an idea that they can drive the market up by hoarding but I think everyone else that does it, does it because they appreciate each and every card. Just my .02

[frankbmd]

Pete, would my harem be considered hoarding by your definition?

[Paul S]

I think that's considered nirvana.

[ullmandds]

As long as you share with me, Frank...I'm cool with that!

[MVSNYC]

Barry- not so sure there's "several thousands" of each player out there. maybe for some, but i'd guess most players are less than that.

[ctownboy]

A little off topic.....I don't know if they are still doing it but years ago there was a person or family in Madison, Indiana who was buying all the 1933 Goudey Tommy Thevenow cards they could find. Thevenow was from Madison and he was their relative.

The last I heard, they had many (a hundred or more?) of his cards and were paying what ever it took to get them. I heard they were, at first, buying them to be able to give one card to each relative in the family.

David

[DeadBallEraCubs]

Originally Posted by MVSNYC

Barry- not so sure there's "several thousands" of each player out there. maybe for some, but i'd guess most players are less than that.

I agree. If there were that many, population reports would reflect it. I think that we can all agree that for the most part, pop reports are not accurate but they are a nice start in gauging how many of a particular card are out there. I think that most cards these days are submitted for grading (some, multiple times further jading the accuracy of pop reports) as folks know that this is a way to maximize your profits.

[Cardboard Junkie]

Originally Posted by DeadBallEraCubs

I agree. If there were that many, population reports would reflect it. I think that we can all agree that for the most part, pop reports are not accurate but they are a nice start in gauging how many of a particular card are out there. I think that most cards these days are submitted for grading (some, multiple times further jading the accuracy of pop reports) as folks know that this is a way to maximize your profits.

I disagree. I think a very large percentage of T206's are not graded.
Most are still "raw".

[barrysloate]

Hi Michael- I would venture to say nearly all T206 players are represented in the thousands. Maybe not the toughies, like Demmitt and O'Hara, but I would think nearly all of them still survive in great numbers.

[darwinbulldog]

Yes, most of them are still raw, and I would say that there are thousands left of almost every card in the set. Most of them it wouldn't make sense to get graded anyway, even if everyone in the world had complete knowledge of what they and their older relatives had and what it was worth and how grading works. If there's a difference between the price of a raw common in poor or fair condition and a graded one, it's less than the grading fee.

I know about the history of the Doyle discovery, but I'm wondering if there is (or ever was) someone who had any success in trying to hoard Wagner. Does anyone today own more than a few of them (or even more than 1 of them)?

[Cardboard Junkie]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Hi Michael- I would venture to say nearly all T206 players are represented in the thousands. Maybe not the toughies, like Demmitt and O'Hara, but I would think nearly all of them still survive in great numbers.

+1 Tens of thousands

[Pete Pyro]

I thought I remembered the number produced being around 370 million total and slightly less than 2 million still in circulation.

[MVSNYC]

Originally Posted by Pete Pyro

I thought I remembered the number produced being around 370 million total and slightly less than 2 million still in circulation.

I think Scot Reader wrote something along those numbers in his book. i thought it was around 1 million that survived, so if you do the math, it's less than 2,000 per player, and in many cases, i believe, much less.

Ted, Brian W, Jim/Tim, Wonka...jump in here. i may be wrong.

[Cardboard Junkie]

I think I heard K. O. has/had 2? Not sure and Red Wimmer wrote an article about a guy in Detroit that had 2 Wagz. Article was in SCD in the late 80's/ early 90's? I may be misremembering.

[GasHouseGang]

I wouldn't think one person could drive up the prices by purchasing all of the cards he could find of one player. However, I remember an article being written about Reggie Jackson going to a bunch of baseball card shows and purchasing all of his 1969 Topps rookie cards he could find. I don't know if it was his goal, but at least temporarily the price went up on that particular card.

[hshrimps]

What about people who are "hoarding" all those miscuts, ghosts, etc to create a price peak on those "used to be junk" cards? That's the same thing IMO.

[barrysloate]

Pure guesstimate, but I would say closer to two million survived, with the more common ones represented by over five thousand examples each. It would be interesting to have other long time collectors post their estimates too. I bet if enough people responded, and we averaged their answers, we could be reasonably close to how many are out there. Unscientific, of course, but maybe more accurate than we might think.

Anyone else?

[Cardboard Junkie]

My guess is 10,000+ examples of any common . I believe that most are in collections, raw, and haven't "circulated" in the hobby in years if at all.

[z28jd]

Take it from someone who "hoards" a particular non-T206 card strictly as a collector and not for resale. The person who ends up paying the most is the hoarder. You would really need to do something on the down low for it to eventually pay off. Once people know you want something, they suddenly want it too and the price keeps going up. That's how I ended up spending 2-3x the value on the last 4-5 I bought. That's fine if the value goes from $20 to $50 as a T206 common, but for Old Judge cards, it means a lot more.

[sago]

IIRC, Don Lepore (dealer from NJ) had 3 Wagners in the late 70's.

[Exhibitman]

There are certain cards I will bid on whenever I see them because I feel they are undervalued and would not mind owning them at my price point. I consider that smart trade fodder stockpiling. There is one card that I hoard, 1928 Exhibit Ray Miller:



No variation will get past me if I see it and I will usually win any duplicate of cousin Ray's card as well.

I can understand the frustration of people who can't work whatever project they are on because of the hoarding, but that just means you have to out bid the hoarders. I got outbid late last year on what would have been card #10 for me.

On the 1969 Jackson, I read that RJ was collecting a copy for each of his home runs, which he intended to autograph and market. As I recall, he got a few hundred and then the Oakland Hills wildfire destroyed his home with the cache of cards in it. Doesn't seem to have affected the supply...

Last note, on Shag Shaughnessy, I always thought that hairdo on the card was a prank but now I see the picture of him and holy crap, he really does have that 'do! I guess if I had a head of hair like that I'd wear it like bird plumage too. Won't have to worry about that unfortunately...

[Koufax32fan]

I am only looking to buy 1 of the Pelty horizontals, for a "fair" price. I am in no hurry.

I don't understand the idea of hoarding, just to hoard. I do have some duplicates - one might be offcenter, one might have better registry, and I just have not found the right one. I am trying to find all of the poses for the Old Judge Doc Oberlander, but that is not hoarding.

A number of years back Ken Holtzman worked at our local JCC so I bought a 100+ lot of his cards on eBay. I thought he might want to hand them out to kids; he wasn't interested. I don't think of that as hoarding. Over time I have been giving them away. Who wants or needs fifteen 1977 Holtzman cards (look at the stache). The kids seem to like to have cards from the 70's (at least for a few minutes).

Is the motivation for hoarding really to try to corner the market and gain some economic advantage? Even the Hunt Brothers learned that is hard to do (or maybe it was the fact that they leveraged themselves to the hilt to buy all that silver). So, who is the guy buying cards of Titus or Pelty on margin?

[Cardboard Junkie]

Originally Posted by sago

IIRC, Don Lepore (dealer from NJ) had 3 Wagners in the late 70's.

Source on this please?Dave.

[vintagechris]

I estimate 3to 4K of each card still in circulation. You might be able to come up with a good estimate if you could estimate the number of people who collect the set possibly?

[thehoodedcoder]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Pure guesstimate, but I would say closer to two million survived, with the more common ones represented by over five thousand examples each. It would be interesting to have other long time collectors post their estimates too. I bet if enough people responded, and we averaged their answers, we could be reasonably close to how many are out there. Unscientific, of course, but maybe more accurate than we might think.

Anyone else?

if that was the case, say 5k of each card, and you paid 20 bucks a pop for them, for 20k you could sop up 20 percent of the availability.

that is a huge number and its not out of reach. to think that won't affect price is absurd. if you came to the game with the intent to get them as fast as possible, you would be winning every card available. the people that want one would have to go nuts to beat you out of the card.

kevin

[sago]

Originally Posted by Cardboard Junkie

Source on this please?Dave.

There was an article in one of the trade papers, either Baseball Hobby News or SCD, that also had a picture of him holding all 3.

David