Weigh in: Why the current t206 back craze--and will it last?

[GregMitch34]

There's been some discussion of this here but I haven't seen many compelling reasons offered on why the prices soared almost overnight--and if it signals a lasting trend or just a brief blip. I think too many are just fully dismissive without explaining why. I find more convincing those who have said, yes, prices are crazy--and will come dow--but something real is happening.

My own view is that even t206 collectors get bored and look for new challenges--AND there is something quite normal and valid about higher prices for rare or scarce items. The question has always been, "yes, rare, but does it matter if no one wants to buy?" But I sense that there's at least a chance that a new generation sees value in having, say, one of the three of a certain card/back ever graded etc. and that prices will fall but not by that much. Your thoughts?

[Leon]

Originally Posted by GregMitch34

There's been some discussion of this here but I haven't seen many compelling reasons offered on why the prices soared almost overnight--and if it signals a lasting trend or just a brief blip. I think too many are just fully dismissive without explaining why. I find more convincing those who have said, yes, prices are crazy--and will come dow--but something real is happening.

My own view is that even t206 collectors get bored and look for new challenges--AND there is something quite normal and valid about higher prices for rare or scarce items. The question has always been, "yes, rare, but does it matter if no one wants to buy?" But I sense that there's at least a chance that a new generation sees value in having, say, one of the three of a certain card/back ever graded etc. and that prices will fall but not by that much. Your thoughts?

Hey Greg
Not to sound repetitive, though I will, but it really has to do with the demand. I agree with you though. We all know T206s are probably the most collected pre-war series. So there is the demand. Most of the set can be obtained if you have the cash in your pocket. NOT all front/back combo's can be had even IF you have the money in your pocket. That is why I like type collecting. IF Bill Gates wanted a T231 Fans card, and John or I didn't want to sell ours, he couldn't have one. That is not the case with almost any player (front only) in T206. The Doyle is a corrected error, and super rare, but we have still seen a few of those for sale in the last 10 yrs, not so much a T231. Also, I am sure there are a few T206 front/back combos that are uniquely, or almost uniquely, known. If I collected T206 specifically I am sure I would be a front/back combo collector. It would be much more fun for me.

[g_vezina_c55]

Just a question for you leon.
I am into t206 since only a year now and you said t206 is probably the most collected set and you are corect on it i think.

My question is : t206 set is now the most collected set but it is the case since couple year or as you can remember in your past it was also the most popular set in the 60 70 80 90 ?

Thx

[Leon]

Originally Posted by g_vezina_c55

Just a question for you leon.
I am into t206 since only a year now and you said t206 is probably the most collected set and you are corect on it i think.

My question is : t206 set is now the most collected set but it is the case since couple year or as you can remember in your past it was also the most popular set in the 60 70 80 90 ?

Thx

Hey Nelson
Since I Have been in the hobby a short 16-17 yrs, T206 has been the most collected pre-war set. I can't really comment on time before that. I am sure others can and will. best regards

[MVSNYC]

As previously mentioned in several other T206 threads, there's a variety of reasons why rare backs have been so hot and prices so high. for starters, there are more than a handful of advanced collectors who are working on "master sets", every front/back combo possible. obviously a huge task, but when you have several of these collectors going head to head for certain cards, prices will get ridiculous. also, there is a great amount of research documentation on the web and here that has brought to light just how rare many of these backs are (BL 460, Drum, Uzit, etc). even though it is a hugely popular set and the cards are pretty easy to come by, there are plenty of very tuff, even very rare/scarce cards that collectors are always chasing. i've been collecting T206 for almost 25 years, and have always had a fascination with the different backs...last but not least, IMO, the artwork & typography of the various brands is just awesome and compelling.

[GregMitch34]

I guess what is most stunning lately is not that Uzits etc. have gone up in price but the much more common Tolstois, EPDG, Cycles--when not many examples seen for that player. Even Sovereigns and Old Mills in some cases soared if rare examples for that card. That's the trend that's interesting.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by GregMitch34

I guess what is most stunning lately is not that Uzits etc. have gone up in price but the much more common Tolstois, EPDG, Cycles--when not many examples seen for that player. Even Sovereigns and Old Mills in some cases soared if rare examples for that card. That's the trend that's interesting.

And to be honest, if I was going crazy on the combos, I would probably steer clear of those less tough backs. I would think there are a lot of them that are off the radar and not graded or counted, but would guess they are out there.

[Craig M]

...and all of this happening in a stagnant economy. I know it's stagnant because my accounts are having a difficult time paying my company. Even the excellent accounts are stringing their Net30 terms out to Net60 and Net90.

These rare backs are going to go "BONKERS" when the economy really starts humming whenever that will be. Who knows!

These are great buy prices right now.

[drc]

As a non-T206 collector just an observer, the attention to back details seems excessive to me. However, it's not a recent phenomenon. People have focused the minutia double prints, red inks etc for some time now.

Now if you are talking about the basic brands like Drum versus Sweet Caporal versus Toilsoi, that's definitely no fad. Drum, for example, has had a value premium for years now. That's no craze.

One thing I find interesting about T206s, and this is a testimony to its popularity, is something that would be considered a defect on a 1975 Topps (printing error, ghost) is considered valuable on a T206.

[DerekMichael]

I am only a rookie collector, but for me, I can simply go onto Ebay and find plenty of cool HOF with common backs that are just lovely, but when I want a rare back, I have to be verrrrrry patient and when I finally do land one, it is very rewarding and exciting.

I guess it is the thrill of the chase, so to speak. The rare backs just add this entirely different element that I absolutely love.

I just wish I had collected these when I was younger, because the prices today can be similar to a swift kick in the groin.

Totally worth it though

[prewarsports]

Simple anwswers.


1. Who the hell knows, its weird!

2. No it wont last!

Rhys Yeakley

[Craig M]

Originally Posted by drc

"One thing I find interesting about T206s, and this is a testimony to its popularity, is something that would be considered a defect on a 1975 Topps (printing error, ghost) is considered valuable on a T206."

DRC, you are right.

I don't know what it is about these T206's but these anomalies are all over the place on the T206's and it's fun finding them and then collecting them. Included are two of my SCHLEI cards with an anomaly between the L and E on both cards while other SCHLEI cards are missing the anomaly.

It's interesting to note that one card is a PD150 and the other a SC150 so the anomaly was not cleaned up while running the PD and SC backs in the 150 series yet I have seen SC350's with it gone and cleaned up.

I'm still doing my research on them and collecting more.

[AMBST95]

As already mentioned, the collector is just a lot more educated on rarity. There are a lot of 30-40 somethings coming back to card collecting and they all got hosed in the 90s as kids. As a result, they are more inclined to purchase a hard to find rare back over a more common one. The information available online now really helps to empower the buyer to make smarter choices than they may have in the past. This is why you are seeing the prices blow up. This should continue for awhile, as this generation of collectors start amassing their collections. Eventually as the hobby as a whole starts to decline, these values will come back to Earth, but I'm talking 20 years from now when today's kids want nothing to do with cards in general.

[lharri3600]

Unless the world ends tomorrow, this craze is here too stay!

[travrosty]

IF Bill Gates wanted a T231 Fans card, and John or I didn't want to sell ours, he couldn't have one.




if bill gates wanted it bad enough, bill gates would get it.

[Shoele$$]

Nothing in life lasts forever. Yes eventually the craze will settle down just like everything else. Everybody thought rarer candy and bakery cards were going to continue to skyrocket as well....we saw how that turned out. Guys that paid $8-10K for a Fair condition Tip Top bread Wagner 5 years ago are completely hosed right now as prices are litterally half that for that grade range right now. Happens all the time.

To be honest, the outlook is grim as hell for all overpriced cards these days, as most guys in their 20's and 30's have absolutely NO interest in vintage baseball cards. 20-25 years from now, I can see a MAJOR hobby crash due to a complete lack of interest from the next generation.

[nolemmings]

I think the back craze will be around for awhile. Although I don't collect T206, it seems there are so many t206 in circulation that completing the "basic" 520 is just a matter of money. I'm somewhat guessing but I believe many are becoming more intrigued with collecting subsets of particular backs, which may explain why the medium backs are doing so well, as they present a more challenging chase. I either know collectors or have seen posters here who have focused on Polar Bears, Tolstoi, Sovereign, Cycle 460 and EPDG. And then of course there's Ted

A long, long, long time ago on this board I posted scans of three different backs of Chief Myers in a thread, and a couple people said that looked cool. I wasn't by any means the first and take absolutely no credit for player back runs but I note that the number of people who began posting their own has grown dramatically since. I wonder if the members here who have posted their back subsets have helped inspire others to begin collecting that way too.

[Jlighter]

People here keep predicting the demise of the hobby, but these claims are highly unfounded.

In 15 years we may have fully autonomous cars, making manually driven cars obsolete and superfluous. Yet we still see cars selling for high prices.

In the coming decades we may see coins being taken out of circulation for Plastic or even electronic forms of payment. Yet we still see coins selling for high prices.

The amount of mail being sent is dwindling by the day, the next generation of children may not be aware of what a Stamp is. Yet we still see stamps selling for high prices.

People like to collect things, people WILL collect Baseball Cards.


To regress to the original question. I think HOFers with rare backs will at least maintain value if bought for an appropriate price. But when someone buys a rare back common for 10X actual value, that is excessive.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by drc

As a non-T206 collector just an observer, the attention to back details seems excessive to me. However, it's not a recent phenomenon. People have focused the minutia double prints, red inks etc for some time now.

Now if you are talking about the basic brands like Drum versus Sweet Caporal versus Toilsoi, that's definitely no fad. Drum, for example, has had a value premium for years now. That's no craze.

One thing I find interesting about T206s, and this is a testimony to its popularity, is something that would be considered a defect on a 1975 Topps (printing error, ghost) is considered valuable on a T206.

I think some of it is that there are backs and combinations that are less common than collectors used to think. If the mid range backs like tolstoi, cycle, and a couple others were taken as an individual set they'd be considered to be somewhat tough.

And I think that at least some people are looking at them that way.

The bit about printing oddities being sought in T206 but not in modern cards is true, bit I think it has a lot to do with the people that collect the cards. With modern cards Beckett has had a huge influence, and in my opinion was in turn influenced by dealers and licensing people. The way they determine "value" is skewed towards hype rather than any actual rarity or realistic ideas.
Before the 80's rookie cards were actually a bit tougher than established stars because fewer were saved. (If you were rescuing some 54 topps from mom in 55, did you save Mantle, or that kid Aaron who only hit 13hrs for Milwaukee) Since about the early 80's the rookie cards were saved in ever increasing proportions.
Beckett also sort of defined what was valuable with some odd reasoning.
Misprints were not valuable. Unless you found a player collector who wanted them. Most of them still aren't at all common, but since Beckett says they're worthless.........
Cards from certain sets can't be "rookie" cards because Beckett says those sets aren't major nationally released sets. Even though those sets are sometimes larger and more common than some sets that are major nationally issued sets. (84 Fleer update is just as large as 86 Fleer basketball, and probably about as common. The Clemens isn't an official rookie, the Jordan is?!)

I think both reasons are senseless unless you view it from the perspective of what cards can a dealer get a good supply of and profit from the hype. Printing errors aren't usually common, and most dealers missed out on 84Fleer update. But 86 fleer basketball was readily available from wholesalers.

The unlicensed cards are supposedly worthless because "The people responsible can just reprint them" ..........Like Upper Deck has been caught at at least twice But they're ok
(Ok, they probably had to cave to the licensing departments on that one.)

Since modern collectors largely follow Beckett, those things have become the rule.
Prewar collectors generally seem to follow their own path.
I think that's a good thing.
It may be because Beckett didn't cover the old stuff well or usually at all. It may go back farther to when there were few checklists and finding them wasn't easy.
Either way you can see the result in some of the discussions here. Did Burdick get it right having T213-1 as its own set? Are T205 and T80 actually closely related?
In maybe 1980 I heard a discussion about a T213. The guy had found a T206 that seemed normal except for the blue caption. He wasn't sure it was real. Nobody else seemed real sure about it either.

Things have really changed.

Steve B

[auggiedoggy]

Originally Posted by Shoele$$

To be honest, the outlook is grim as hell for all overpriced cards these days, as most guys in their 20's and 30's have absolutely NO interest in vintage baseball cards. 20-25 years from now, I can see a MAJOR hobby crash due to a complete lack of interest from the next generation.

One reason why lately I have become more of a seller than a buyer. I'll stick to upgrading two of my completed ITC lacrosse sets. I'm still a buyer of mid to high PSA grade C46s. Other than that I tend to keep away from the insanely priced T206s. I have lots of shinny, over-produced crap from the 80s and early 90s hiding in my wine cellar. Perhaps I should start selling that to the new generation collectors.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by travrosty

IF Bill Gates wanted a T231 Fans card, and John or I didn't want to sell ours, he couldn't have one.




if bill gates wanted it bad enough, bill gates would get it.

Yes, he would.

[Bridwell]

It used to be, back in the 70's, 80's and 90's that 1933 Goudey was the set most everybody liked the best. It was just as popular as T206 back then. The next most popular was 1952 Topps. That's a set that people were awed by.

Now T206 as taken over as number one. If the Set Registry guys are collecting a set then that's a good one to invest in short term. There's a few wealthy collectors who will pay any price to get a card they don't have. T206 rare backs is the perfect formula for that.

[glchen]

I think commons will eventually take a dive. HOFers should hold their value especially high end HOFers like Cobb. I think in the hobby's history, there are few examples of commons holding high end value unless they were short prints within a "basic" set or card #1 in the set.