Market wisdom--'28 Exhibit Gehrig?

[ls7plus]

It is amazing how much valuable information is available in the archives here. I was sifting through them with regard to the 1958 Kahn's Clemente when I came upon Adam/Exhibitman's posts back on October 15 & 16, 2009. I don't think there's any question that if you're interested in value appreciation as well as collecting (as I am--insofar as the collecting aspect goes, the cards connect you vicariously to the player and take you back to the time, and are thus part of the history of the game you can literally hold right in your hands), Exhibitman hit the nail precisely on the head when on 10/15/09, he posted in pertinent part:

"The basic problem with high grade mainstream postwar cards is that
they aren't all that uncommon. I don't think there is an 8/88 out there
that can't be found readily...If you really care about value maintenance,
stop collecting plastic [postwar, in high grade slabs] and start collecting
classics--go prewar & go rare when you do. When a rare prewar card
surfaces it does well in almost any market..."

All of which is a roundabout way of getting to the topic of a 1928 Exhibits Lou Gehrig in SGC fair, which was apparently recently sold by Baggers 77 (a dealer with whom I have some experience) for $1,000.00 on e-bay. I know Leon's opinion re the pop reports--snap, crackle, pop--but believe these begin to have some real relevance when you're dealing with prewar that you know from years of looking are't around in any real quantities. The '28 Exhibits Gehrig is on my want list ( I think its a great batting/follow-through pose--you can almost see Gehrig just having ripped a long drive to right center an instant before the photo was taken). It popped up on one of my saved e-bay searches when the seller listed it, but it went very, very quickly, before I could get to it. Anyway, the PSA pop on this card was ten total, in all grades. Collecting stars and hall-of-famers with an eye to future appreciation, I generally seek out '20's and '30's Exhibits in at least VG/EX, and was surprised at the price this one fetched from a buyer who pretty obviously had been looking for one for some time, as I had. However, my offer would have been in the $500-$600 range at best (I don't currently have access to vintagecardprices.com, and would have based my offer on other fairly recent Exhibits purchases I have personally made, such as a 1926-1929 Gehrig in SGC EX; 1926-1929 Foxx, SGC EX; 1926-1929 Hack Wilson, SGC VG/EX; 1921 Ruth, high-end SGC VG; 1921 Hornsby, high-end PSA VG/EX and 1931-32 Ruth from the movies stars set, PSA EX).

Since many of you know the Exhibit market, and Adam/Exhibitman probably knows it best of all, I was wondering what you guys--especially Adam, in light of his 10/15/09 post, thought about this transaction. Did the buyer pay too much? Does the pop report at least reflect some true degree of difficulty in obtaining this card? Is it an example of Adam's impeccable logic--"when a rare prewar card surfaces, it does well in almost any market?"

Thanks for your input.

Larry

[glchen]

Overpaid. I recently purchased the 28 Exhibit set with Gehrig in Poor condition for less than 2K at Link

[ls7plus]

Unless he didn't have $2,000, didn't know about the Legendary auction offering, or didn't care to be bothered unloading all the additional stuff he didn't want in the set beyond the '28 Gehrig.

Maybe he was on a quest, the way one of our members was some time ago, offering first $5,000 for a '58 Kahn's Clemente (PSA pop report 4, last time I checked, all likely secured in private collections for long periods of time) in SGC NrMt, then $5,000 for the same card in graded EX, when the first offer was unproductive. Sometimes when the fever takes over, you just have to have something you've been without for quite some time, and damn the torpedos, full speed (and $$$ ) ahead!

I know how that goes--Id set a limit of $5,000 for the purchase of the 1923 Lections Babe Ruth in a Mastronet auction a few years back, and allowed myself to get caught up in it, eventually spending just over $6,000 to secure the card, including buyers premium and shipping, handling and insurance, when I could have had another card I was interested in in the same auction, a T222 Walter Johnson for an amount within the limits I had set.

My feeling is that time may more than make him whole on that card, despite its less than desireable condition--we may see the '28 Gehrig appear in the low hundreds in the pop report eventually, but by the time that happens, it may well be considered a truly, if not extremely rare card. I don't think anyone would suggest that there are thousands or even upper hundreds of examples out there--Adam might be in the best position to know.

Thank you for your input--I do appreciate it!

Larry

[glchen]

I guess I just don't feel the 28 Exhibits Gehrig is one of his key cards (e.g, 25 Exhibit, 33/34 Goudey, Delong, US Caramel). Adam or Scott could probably answer better on the scarcity of this Exhibit. I've always liked the 26-29 Exhibits Portrait look better than the 28 Exhibit. I would've guessed that this one in SGC 20 would've gone between 400-500.

The Lections Ruth on the other hand is very rare and very in demand. Type collectors are happy with any Lections, and Ruth collectors simply cannot get their hands on a copy of this card. It's very tough.

[fkw]

Example picture....

Picked this up in trade last year........ and sold last years, both valued in the $350-$400 range.

Its a nice attractive card, but not a key Gehrig IMO compared to the others mentioned.

[Rickyy]

Yep nice card, but I got mine in the same condition for $200 plus change....

[HRBAKER]

I agree with has been said. I have one of these and have never considered it either close to being rare or a "key" Gehrig card. Now of course a card doesn't have to be rare to be considered key, the two '34 Goudey Gehrigs are certainly not rare and they are considered keys I would say. If you are patient you can pick one up at a decent price. I think much of the increase in price is due to the fact that there has been an appreciation long term in the amount Exhibits are bringing compared to the old days when they were considered low caste hobbywise and it has been a way to pick up a legitimate, playing days Gehrig card and player/HOF type collectors have driven the price up.

[ls7plus]

Appreciate the input, guys. I really like Frank's card for eye appeal (can't see any creases on the scan--appears back damage only was what downgraded the card), which is something that seems to hover in that gray area between subjective and objective. I would have been happier with Frank's than the one Bagger77 sold in SGC fair--despite seller Dave's comments in the description on e-bay, I really thought it's eye appeal was quite marginal.

Thanks for taking the time to comment.

Larry

[Exhibitman]

Thanks for the kudos, guys.

The 1928 is the 4th straight year of that pose, BTW.

Not much surprises me on Exhibit pricing. They're just tough enough that someone frustrated over a few auction losses might just jump on a BIN. I'd have guessed more like $500-$600 for a lower grade one but you never know.

[smtjoy]

I would put the price about the same as adam, I have been looking for a VG one for years with no luck and would pay a very strong price for it.

Gary you got a great deal on the two sets you purchased, it was bad timing for me on them or they would have went a lot higher. I have seen the same sets in similuar condition go for double that.

[ls7plus]

Thank you very much, gentlemen. The chance to tap into your cummulative knowledge is sincerel appreciated.

Larry