The Inevitable Demise of eBay....

[JP]

For years I've had a daily eBay search of which "psa t206" auctions are ending that day. Of course I exclude all of the outrageous "buy it nows" that dealers use to showcase, rather than sell, their inventory..

Filtering out the buy it nows, as of this moment, 9 P.M. Pacific, there are scheduled to close 10 PSA t206 auctions on Thursday, 2 on Friday and only 13 on Saturday (7 of which are from Net54's own Larry!) The next 3 days only have 25 auctions of PSA graded T-206s. Back in the day, you had at least 100 closing every day. What has happened?

I have to think that part of it must be contributed to people not wanting to compete with the current auctions....as prospective buyers have a lot of cash tied up in potential winning bids. But I think the biggest factor is those "showcase dealers" that I was referring to earlier. They make up 92.2% of the total listings! That means you have to sift through 100 "auctions" just to find 7 or 8 REAL auctions. Why can't there be a "buy it now" eBay and a completely separate auction eBay site? This is just TOO MUCH!!

[jb217676]

I agree with JP. Ebay should only have auctions. Here's to Larry, keepin' ebay alive with his auctions!

[HRBAKER]

I think that a lot of people don't want to sell in a perceived down market for more "common" pre-war items like T206s. Plus ebay has made it economical for sellers to clutter the listings with all of the "store" or fixed-price inventory and they get lost. I think I can actually see some dust starting to accumulate on some of Buy It Nows, they have been on there so long.

I would be willing to bet that I spend 25% of the time trolling/searching ebay that I did 2-3 years ago.

[JP]

The 200 T-206s I sold in auctions there last month did fine....I think it'd be a whole different story if they were for sale now. BST only for me for as long as I can take it.

[mcap100176]

Ebay isn't going anywhere. While this niche baseball card market might not be as good as it once was, the company is making money. Both, as it seems on its auction/buying business and then on its PayPal holding.

Just read the first two pages of the below.....

http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...ngsRelease.pdf

[JP]

I may be reading it wrong, but it looks like their profit in 2008 was $1.8 billion and in 2009 was $2.4 billion, but $1.4 billion of that 2009 profit was the one-time sale of Skype. That means that their auction income dropped by 50%? And that's with fees being raised?

[T206DK]

check the numbers on Ebay again.....They are not really making money. Some of those financial analysts on CNBC don't think Ebay will be around much longer in it's current form either. I distinctly remeber them using the term :jump ship: when they talked about former CEO Meg Whitman's decsion to leave the company along with several other executives. The guys on CNBC basically said she didn't want to be around when everything comes crashing down. As I have said before, if one valid competitor comes along to draw any amount of revenue away from them , they will feel it immediately and being that they are very reactionary, who knows what they will come up with next. Another new user agreement ? More new seller rules and regulations ?
I believe it will eventually be a buy it now shopping mart online for those who have no other outlet to sell from. Now the SMR has supplanted Beckett for many of these guys. My brother and I went to the Local monthly show in dayton on saturday. It was depressing. in the whole auditorium we found only 6 cards that dated pre-war. The dealers were using the SMR to price ungraded material also which I laughed at. Really, I laughed at one guy when a kid came up to buy a $5 card and the dealer whipped out his SMR and said..."it says here it's worth $21". I just wanted to look at the guy and say in my best Spicolli voice " You dick"

[t210scouts]

While I have not been following the pre-war cards for that long I have been looking on ebay for other items that I collect. I've noticed in the past year that there does not seem to be the number of items there once was. Lots more of the buy it now but for auctions - down. I also look for stamps and 19th century images and for what I'm looking for there's been very little this year. Either everyone is selling elsewhere or they are holding on to the items and hoping for a better market to sell.

[smtjoy]

I agree a lot less auctions now then back in 03-07.

My recent auction sales thou have been very strong, not sure if its because there are less auctions or that people are feeling better about the economy or what but my sales prices are up. Hope the trend continues as I have a lot of stuff I have been holding back waiting for the market to trend upward.

[lharri3600]

all points are valid. however, i believe ebay has done one hell of a job at loading the gun and pointing it at themselves and pulling the trigger. the new fee structure has forced auction listers (like myself) to pay $15.95 per month to open a store. without the "store", final value fees on auctions are outrageous! short term will make them think they are doing well. long term will have them scratching their crooked heads asking "what happened". little do they know they have done well driving sellers to different venues. i'm leaning toward what jp stated 54 and 54 only.

[lharri3600]

thank you thank you thank you

Originally Posted by jb217676

I agree with JP. Ebay should only have auctions. Here's to Larry, keepin' ebay alive with his auctions!

[rdwyer]

If eBay sold only BIN's, their profit would drop 99%.

[drc]

Perhaps they could completely separate the auctions and sales, and not intermingle them.

[Shouldabeena10]

How in the world could a company that basically manufactures nothing, produces nothing, and delivers nothing, run their business into the ground so badly?

The "eBay system" has got to be 99% automated, so outside of management you're basically just employing tech's, R & D, marketing, and some customer service reps to keep the thing running.

Just thinking about the millions of auctions running on eBay every day, 24/7, and the % of money they make off of all their fees ... you'd think it wouldn't be possible to sink that ship. Unintentionally, at least.

[drc]

I describe eBay's recent ways as follows: They had the world's best and biggest auction house, so they decided to change that.

[rdixon1208]

The internet (primarily ebay) has made collecting so much easier. Many long-term collectors have posted about how much easier it is to find cards. I wonder if this easy access has led to more and more people collecting pre-war over the last few years...and more and more peolple holding their cards (less auctions) while they build there collections.

[slidekellyslide]

I'm liking the new free listing format.. List something for .99 cents and it's a free listing..if it sells ebay takes 10%, if it doesn't sell then I'm out nothing. I have a ton of items like postcards, ephemera and photos that I would never list if they didn't have free listings like this. That may clog up some categories, but it shouldn't bother those that do specific searches. Last night I had 4 stereoview cards end at about $1,000 that I would have been happy if they'd sold for $10 each...I had no clue they were worth that much and I never would have wasted the listing fee to try them at $9.99 each. The downside to listing .99 cent items though is that I had a postcard sell for the opening bid and I have to ship it to the Netherlands.

[Exhibitman]

I've run across a few $0.99 openers with $9.00 mailing costs lately.

FWIW, I think 10% to sell an item still is a good deal. An auctioneer will take twice that at least (BP + Comm), if your consignment is accepted at all.

[slidekellyslide]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I've run across a few $0.99 openers with $9.00 mailing costs lately.

FWIW, I think 10% to sell an item still is a good deal. An auctioneer will take twice that at least (BP + Comm), if your consignment is accepted at all.

I'm assuming the $9 shipping charge is out of line for what they're auctioning? and I agree that 10% is not bad...and almost everyone pays with paypal so that ups it to 13%. Of course anything I'm listing for 99 cents is something that I probably wouldn't have listed and it would have filled up a box in my basement.

[T206DK]

Ebay's demise was probably forseen by many of the more mature employees back in 2005-6. They don't work there anymore ! I think at that time the oldest person working in their customer service department was around 25-27 years old. The oldest person at the Utah location was 31 when my friend Steve worked there. They used to have an indoor basketball court inside the work premises, and a video game room for employees to hang out in.

[D. Bergin]

I wonder if people realize there's actually a Tab at the top of every search page that easily separates the Auction items from the Buy It Now items if you want.

[slidekellyslide]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

I wonder if people realize there's actually a Tab at the top of every search page that easily separates the Auction items from the Buy It Now items if you want.

Yep...never had to use it until recently. My search for "Nebraska Baseball" within the title and body of the auction used to bring up about 500 hits...now it's over 4,000...with the large majority of those being BIN's.

[T206DK]

here's another thing that's wrong with the new Ebay business model. My brother just got 2 positive feedback comments on his account and his rating actually driopped. Unbelievable !

[autograf]

Yep.....all my dozens of searches are now screwed up. Not a HUGE deal to separate auctions from BIN's but different. I'm slooooowwwwllllyyy getting used to it. I think eBay exists solely just to change crap when they really don't need to. They had a great business model and they just keep striking out while updating things that such a miniscule minority of people would even care about. I also think they have cow-towed to their legal department so much that the whole system is about useless. It's like they have malpractice insurance and they have to change EVERYTHING just to be compliant. Still tough to find somewhere else that has any real amount of the stuff we're looking for though.......

[JP]

The real problem with eBay is that they let auctions like this happen. No way does that person have that card....and no feedback in forever, so obviously a hijacked account!

[4815162342]

Well, he had a "smooth etopps transaction"!

[Boccabella]

eBay isn't going anywhere. While collectors of the type of material found in this forum have options, most of the rest of the collectors/dealers who handle less rare or more modern material simply don't.

For all of its "issues" and tweaks, eBay is still a very effective way for millions of average people to buy and sell. If eBay's "demise" is so imminent, who's replacing it? Whatever better models are out there have a LOT of work to do to get to their level.

And don't forget...if you take your cards off eBay, you also lose the periphery..that is, the eyes of people who may not be die-hard collectors but for one reason or another decide to bid on your item.

[M's_Fan]

eBay has pushed the "Buy it now" model to sellers in order to compete with Amazon, and many sellers are signing on because they are always leary of dumping their cards at low prices in a recession.

As eBay buyers become more sophisticated, they will learn to use the "auctions only" tab, and sellers will be forced to sell at auction or not.

Consider when the internet first came out, people clicked on all sorts of advertisements. Now studies have shown internet users don't even see the banner advertising on the sides. Ebay buyers will adjust, and this trend will die down. Ebay will remain the trading ground, and the auction houses reserved for high-end product....

[bcornell]

There's an easy explanation, although it sucks for collectors.

Collectibles are fundamentally different than commodities, because the supply & demand of the two are completely unalike. eBay is now religiously focused on commodities, the stuff that everyone knows the 'value' of. BINs makes sense for this stuff - if I want a DVD or an appliance, I know what I'm willing to pay and I don't want to wait 3 to 7 days to find out if I won it. I want it now.

Unfortunately, they've blanketed the whole site with the same model, and this hobby has suffered for it. We're now stuck with collectibles that have crazy BIN prices because the sellers have no idea what their merchandise could realistically sell for, or they're horribly greedy, or both.

It's nearly killed the site for collectibles. And for those who always say that "eBay doesn't care", you're now correct.

I fully agree with Boccabella that eBay isn't going away. Bringing together buyers and sellers is a hell of a lot tougher than most people imagine. eBay has done that.


Bill

[JP]

Originally Posted by 4815162342

Well, he had a "smooth etopps transaction"!

Reported it and barely was able to fit this in under the limitation of characters in the description of complaint:

"If that seller can provide you with a picture of that card with today's newspaper, I'll eat my hat."

[pscolgrafs]

Ebay is not going anywhere. They really don't care about the pre-war people. It is a small fraction of their sales and every single time a new auction company threatens them, they crash and burn.

It's eBay's world. It has an invisible monopoly and we have to agree by their terms. I have a friend who has a 100% feedback and his dashboard is cluttered with high marks (around 4.9). He is called away and is late on one auction and his dashboard star for...Shipping...decreases to 4.6 and he gets eBay warnings when he logs in. Does that make sense?

That $9 shipper guy will get low stars and that same warning if he continues to be in the shipping business.

Nothing eBay does make sense and I HATE the fact that they didn't separate auctions from stores from the get go. The only people that like this are those who start everything off at $1 and hope to get a $1 for a ten Mike Scoscia First Day Covers or an autographed index card by Joe Pepitone.

[mintacular]

I don't see how anything that has happened to eBay is "inevitable". In fact, just the opposite....the title of this thread should have been the "evitable" demise of ebay :

[quinnsryche]

Unfortunately ebay is still the best option for purchasing items difficult to find elsewhere. Other than the big auction houses, who most normal collectors can't even afford the buyer's premium, a limited few decent web sites and the scant local show, where can the average collector add cards to his collection? There are hundreds of thousands of cards of every type available to all types and levels of collectors, that's pretty cool. This site is a great option, but you can't always get what you want here (I know, I've tried) and we're not only talking about rare or scarce stuff. I'm not sticking up for ebay or the way they run their business, I'm just pointing out that it is a viable option for a great many people (buying and selling).
Just my opinion, take it or leave it.

[yawie99]

Originally Posted by bcornell

There's an easy explanation, although it sucks for collectors.

Collectibles are fundamentally different than commodities, because the supply & demand of the two are completely unalike. eBay is now religiously focused on commodities, the stuff that everyone knows the 'value' of. BINs makes sense for this stuff - if I want a DVD or an appliance, I know what I'm willing to pay and I don't want to wait 3 to 7 days to find out if I won it. I want it now.

Unfortunately, they've blanketed the whole site with the same model, and this hobby has suffered for it. We're now stuck with collectibles that have crazy BIN prices because the sellers have no idea what their merchandise could realistically sell for, or they're horribly greedy, or both.

It's nearly killed the site for collectibles. And for those who always say that "eBay doesn't care", you're now correct.

I fully agree with Boccabella that eBay isn't going away. Bringing together buyers and sellers is a hell of a lot tougher than most people imagine. eBay has done that.


Bill

Well said. I suppose I'm still grateful for the presence of a relatively democratic marketplace like eBay, but the site's shift away from the auction model that made it such a great venue in the first place has probably sucked as much vitality from the hobby as has the flagging economy.