Depressing

[pherbener]

Originally Posted by orly57

Be glad. We all started off collecting new cards. It's a natural progression which only insures the future of our hobby.

Agreed. Many people colecting Trout, Judge et.al. today will move to Mantle, Ryan, Koufax and then to prewar. I'm sure plenty of us did the same thing. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if plenty of people collecting 50's and 60's PSA registry items move to prewar stuff eventually too.

[toledo_mudhen]

The Pre War Pool is still to deep for me.... Luckily tho, I find that the 50's just seem to scratch an itch for me......

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by pherbener

Agreed. Many people colecting Trout, Judge et.al. today will move to Mantle, Ryan, Koufax and then to prewar. I'm sure plenty of us did the same thing. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if plenty of people collecting 50's and 60's PSA registry items move to prewar stuff eventually too.

Yes I also started out buying new cards back in the 80's. The big(crazy) difference is back then when we bought the new must have cards we usually spent less than $100. So when they became worthless in a year or 2 it sucked but was not a huge deal. Now the new must have cards are selling for 5 and 6 figures. The only thing that is the same is most are worthless after a couple years.

[irv]

Are Judge's cards still getting crazy high prices like they once were last year?

[orly57]

Originally Posted by bnorth

Yes I also started out buying new cards back in the 80's. The big(crazy) difference is back then when we bought the new must have cards we usually spent less than $100. So when they became worthless in a year or 2 it sucked but was not a huge deal. Now the new must have cards are selling for 5 and 6 figures. The only thing that is the same is most are worthless after a couple years.

I bought up every Todd Van Poppel and Brien Taylor card I could find. Some were as much as a whopping $20. If those guys were coming into the league today, their 1/1 autos would sell for multiple thousands off the bat. Imagine what a 1/1 canseco rookie auto would sell for today if he had come into the league in 2015 and had those dominant seasons he had. And think of the drop on that card once Canseco lost his mojo. They can't all be Mike Trout...that's why he's special. I don't collect new stuff, but some members on the board whom I respect do. They are educated guys who enjoy rooting on the players whose cards they own. There is fun in that, and that's what collecting is all about. Any way you look at it, it's good that people come into the hobby and follow baseball.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by orly57

I bought up every Todd Van Poppel and Brien Taylor card I could find. Some were as much as a whopping $20. If those guys were coming into the league today, their 1/1 autos would sell for multiple thousands off the bat. Imagine what a 1/1 canseco rookie auto would sell for today if he had come into the league in 2015 and had those dominant seasons he had. And think of the drop on that card once Canseco lost his mojo. They can't all be Mike Trout...that's why he's special. I don't collect new stuff, but some members on the board whom I respect do. They are educated guys who enjoy rooting on the players whose cards they own. There is fun in that, and that's what collecting is all about. Any way you look at it, it's good that people come into the hobby and follow baseball.

+1 again, pretty much. Only it's not yet certain that even Mike Trout can continue to be Mike Trout. The home stretch isn't even in sight yet. The time to buy him, if he continues on his obvious very strong HOF path, will be in his mid-thirties' downslide, when the speculative and transient demand has vanished, and the newest latest and greatest phenom has come along. A PSA 8 NNOF Frank Thomas could have been had for approximately $500-$600 circa 2008 or so.

Highest regards, Orly,

Larry

[CurtisFlood]

Originally Posted by bnorth

Yes I also started out buying new cards back in the 80's. The big(crazy) difference is back then when we bought the new must have cards we usually spent less than $100. So when they became worthless in a year or 2 it sucked but was not a huge deal. Now the new must have cards are selling for 5 and 6 figures. The only thing that is the same is most are worthless after a couple years.

I'd say this is an almost new crop of collector who will be hit with the news that this stuff they are paying exorbitant prices for is in the same boat with the 80s junk that everyone lost nearly all value on.

[MattyC]

Originally Posted by CurtisFlood

I'd say this is an almost new crop of collector who will be hit with the news that this stuff they are paying exorbitant prices for is in the same boat with the 80s junk that everyone lost nearly all value on.

Exorbitant is different for each person. I am someone buying modern (in addition to Pre and Post war) and I can tell you when “I get hit with the news” you seem to see in your crystal ball, I won’t care what my modern is worth— I am collecting.

[CurtisFlood]

Originally Posted by MattyC

Exorbitant is different for each person. I am someone buying modern (in addition to Pre and Post war) and I can tell you when “I get hit with the news” you seem to see in your crystal ball, I won’t care what my modern is worth— I am collecting.

Good plan. An old guy told me a long time ago to buy what you like. Then when it isn't worth anything at least you will like it.

[Big Ben]

Originally Posted by CurtisFlood

I'd say this is an almost new crop of collector who will be hit with the news that this stuff they are paying exorbitant prices for is in the same boat with the 80s junk that everyone lost nearly all value on.

I agree with your post. I have not kept up with the new products, but I have to wonder about the expectations of a person paying thousands of dollars for a new card.

[MattyC]

Originally Posted by Big Ben

I agree with your post. I have not kept up with the new products, but I have to wonder about the expectations of a person paying thousands of dollars for a new card.

My expectation, when I pay thousands for a new card, is that I will enjoy my new card.

That expectation is met each and every time.

It's the same expectation I have when I buy a card from 1914, 1952, or 1975.

[orly57]

Originally Posted by MattyC

My expectation, when I pay thousands for a new card, is that I will enjoy my new card.

That expectation is met each and every time.

It's the same expectation I have when I buy a card from 1914, 1952, or 1975.

Matty, we get that you collect for the sheer purity, love and enjoyment of the hobby. You can afford it, and could care less if Aaron Judge (or whoever) becomes a bust and you lost several thousands on their cards. But I think you are in the minority there. Just because you are an intelligent collector with means, it doesn't follow that many others aren't risking big bucks chasing the promise of the next Mike Trout. We all got burned in the 80's, but that was CHUMP CHANGE compared to the money being spent on speculative prospects like Strasbourg. I think that is the greater point of this thread. But as I mentioned in a previous post, I think any form of collecting cards is good for our hobby, and I'm all for it.
I will also echo Sam's sentiment from a previous post in that I would love to buy the cards of modern players, but just hate that each guy has 1,000 rookies IN DIFFERING YEARS. There are too many to choose from. I don't want to just buy his 472nd "best" rookie, but I also don't want to spend 5-figures on one of his top 5 rookies. I will spend it on Ruth or Cobb because the cards are awesome and their status as immortals is already secured.

[Snapolit1]

The mania surrounding the Otani autographs in the new Topps Heritage set is instructive. A ton of mania out of the box to get these cards and get on eBay. People who were asking $75,000 a month ago. If someone paid that they are a sorry sorry guy, because they are now a few thousand last time I checked. This is just people buying a lottery ticket.
Manufactured scarcity. Signing in different ink colors and then trying to say a certain color is more valuable. Cmon. That’s nuts.

[MattyC]

Originally Posted by orly57

I will also echo Sam's sentiment from a previous post in that I would love to buy the cards of modern players, but just hate that each guy has 1,000 rookies IN DIFFERING YEARS. There are too many to choose from. I don't want to just buy his 472nd "best" rookie, but I also don't want to spend 5-figures on one of his top 5 rookies. I will spend it on Ruth or Cobb because the cards are awesome and their status as immortals is already secured.

In all fairness the PreWar "rookie" space is not as cut and dry as you make it seem, relative to modern. Look at the debate that swirls around Ty Cobb or Babe Ruth and what their "rookie" card is. When I first ventured into PreWar I found it disorganized, relative to what I saw as the direct, clear-cut Post War space. I took the time to wade in and learn, from reading and fellow collectors, and was soon able to select cards I wanted. I am sure anyone could do the same for modern, if they so choose. I have far too much fun watching baseball and rooting for certain players to abstain from collecting the cards of theirs which I find awesome, just because they may not achieve immortal status. Their status is already secured with me, based on the fun I have in the present watching, rooting, and collecting. That is why, when I look at my cards, I smile at the Gooden, Strawberry, Mattingly, and Bo Jacksons the same way I smile at the Ruths and Cobbs.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by orly57

Matty, we get that you collect for the sheer purity, love and enjoyment of the hobby. You can afford it, and could care less if Aaron Judge (or whoever) becomes a bust and you lost several thousands on their cards. But I think you are in the minority there. Just because you are an intelligent collector with means, it doesn't follow that many others aren't risking big bucks chasing the promise of the next Mike Trout. We all got burned in the 80's, but that was CHUMP CHANGE compared to the money being spent on speculative prospects like Strasbourg. I think that is the greater point of this thread. But as I mentioned in a previous post, I think any form of collecting cards is good for our hobby, and I'm all for it.
I will also echo Sam's sentiment from a previous post in that I would love to buy the cards of modern players, but just hate that each guy has 1,000 rookies IN DIFFERING YEARS. There are too many to choose from. I don't want to just buy his 472nd "best" rookie, but I also don't want to spend 5-figures on one of his top 5 rookies. I will spend it on Ruth or Cobb because the cards are awesome and their status as immortals is already secured.

Very well stated, as usual, Orly. It brings to mind the thought that just over 1% of the players who ever played major league baseball actually made the HOF. Even Trout is not yet anywhere near a sure thing. This game is essentially one for vigorous young men in their twenties, and for a small few, their early thirties, by and large. Check out Bill James' studies on player performance versus age. By age 35, even the few good enough to still play at a major league level are then producing at a rate of only about 65% of their peak, and it's downhill from there for almost all. The last time Willie Mays was really Willie Mays was 1966, when he was 35 years old. Aaron appeared to play at a higher level longer, but the Fulton County "Launching Pad" masked a lot of his decline--check his home/road splits after the Braves moved to Atlanta. I enjoy watching Trout, because he's the closest thing I have seen to Mickey Mantle since I have been a baseball fanatic in the very early sixties, but sorry, he's only really reached second base, and is still far from home.

Best to you,

Larry

[Big Ben]

Originally Posted by MattyC

My expectation, when I pay thousands for a new card, is that I will enjoy my new card.

That expectation is met each and every time.

It's the same expectation I have when I buy a card from 1914, 1952, or 1975.

Ok. I get that. I use that rational when I purchase a pre World War II card. I fully understand the price fluctuations that can happen in the hobby. But if you paid let’s say $1,000 for a newer card and the value drops precipitously in the following years after the purchase, will you be enthusiastic about spending that type of money on a newer card in the future? Personally I would not.