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  #1  
Old 06-06-2008, 09:55 AM
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Default Vintage cards as investments

Posted By: steve

The DOW is about 500 points lower now than it was on January 1st.

Stupid me, I put my REA proceeds into stocks to further my stock holdings. I am starting to second guess my move - maybe should have just put proceeds back into high end vintage cards ?

I am a card collector, always will have fair amount $ into vintage cards. But I am also an investor.

Thoughts on what cards (and in what grades) may appreciate well over the next year or so ? If one were to put, say, $20k into cards - what investment strategy you folks recommend?

Thanks, Steve

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  #2  
Old 06-06-2008, 10:36 AM
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Posted By: Scott Levy

IMO collectibles as an investment ought to be looked at the same way as Art. In other words, don't even bother to play that game unless you're worth at least $1M liquid in which case I'd still say to limit the total $$ to 5% of your total investments. If you're able to play, invest under the assumption that it would be okay for you to lose 100% of that investment and again my opinion, buy the rarest, highest grade item you can afford. A personal favorite for me would be a T206 Plank in the best shape u can find it.

Having said all that, if you truly love cards, or art, or bottlecaps, etc... treat it like a hobby and NOT like an investment. Since I'm in this boat it's easy to explain the rules here. Collect the things that bring you joy and satisfaction, don't worry about whether they are rising or falling because if you are doing it for personal enjoyment it really doesn't matter much.

Regards,
Scott

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  #3  
Old 06-06-2008, 10:38 AM
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Default Vintage cards as investments

Posted By: Jeff Prizner

get ready for a bunch of CARDS ARE NOT INVESTMENTS, blah, blah, blah responses.

I would say invest the $20k in HOFers from very tough issues that don't come up for sale that often.

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  #4  
Old 06-06-2008, 10:43 AM
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Default Vintage cards as investments

Posted By: leon

Value is always determined by supply vs demand. Don't forget either of those sides of the equation and do what Jeff suggested. For me ...Collecting total population rarities (not grade wise) has worked pretty well but I am definitely a collector more than an investor....Maybe that's why I have done ok with it...?

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  #5  
Old 06-06-2008, 11:56 AM
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Default Vintage cards as investments

Posted By: Darren

Look at the track record of specimens of Ruth, Cobb, Wagner, Matty, & Johnson. The more scarce the issue, the higher the return over the last 10 yrs.

To keep your "investment" liquid, get'em graded by a reputable company.

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  #6  
Old 06-06-2008, 11:57 AM
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Posted By: ali_lapoint

this is kind of a weird question. i would guess 90 percent of people buy cards because they like them. i dont think too many people buy cards as investments. stocks can turn a man rich in an instant. the same can't be said for baseball cards. besides, no one who is looking for an investment invests in something that will take decades to turn a big enough profit that the investment was worth while. unless you consider turning a 10 percent or 20 percent profit a huge score.

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  #7  
Old 06-06-2008, 12:48 PM
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Default Vintage cards as investments

Posted By: Arthur Lobbe

I ONCE heard of a person who LOST a fortune in the stock market.

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  #8  
Old 06-06-2008, 12:51 PM
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Default Vintage cards as investments

Posted By: barrysloate

Scarce vintage cards are still pretty strong across the board, so why not buy the sets that you know the most about, including current market value and which cards are the toughest. I'm a strong believer in knowledge, so invest in what you know well.

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  #9  
Old 06-06-2008, 01:07 PM
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Posted By: Eric Brehm

I think the cards that will hold their value the most are ones that new people coming into the hobby in the future will want. I would go for popular players from popular sets, in the best condition you can afford. Examples would be T206 Cobb, 1933 Goudey Ruth, and (in the post-war arena) high grade Mickey Mantle cards from any issue. The supply/demand equation already makes these cards quite expensive today of course, so I'm not predicting they are going to skyrocket in value, but I think they are likely to remain valuable ('good investments' if you will), even if the general level of interest in the sportscard hobby declines.

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  #10  
Old 06-06-2008, 01:28 PM
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Default Vintage cards as investments

Posted By: Kenneth A. Cohen

Whether it be stocks or vintage cards, the easiest way to make a small fortune is to start with a large one.

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  #11  
Old 06-06-2008, 01:41 PM
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Posted By: Alan

Ken -

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  #12  
Old 06-06-2008, 01:49 PM
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Posted By: steve

After debating this hard in my head, I do tend to agree with Jeff - cards can very much be a wise investment. Heck, if a coin is PCGS slabbed and because it has an "S" mint mark over a "D" - BIG money can be spent.

Seeking a yearly 10-15% profit is plenty fine - beats most other investments right now.

And your opinions are very valid - BIG names in high grade, coupled with high demand sets/cards.

From what I sold in REA, the (PSA more than SGC) T206's did the best overall. My 1939 Ted Williams PSA 8 however was the worst hammer of all my consignments.

Hmmm - looking for T206 PSA 7 (+/-) major HOFers - anybody selling?

steve

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  #13  
Old 06-06-2008, 02:09 PM
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Posted By: boxingcardman

But always fun to rehash on a lazy Friday afternoon.

The first place to start is knowledge and appreciation of the items themselves. If you learn the cards and learn the game(s) you will buy nice things you will enjoy and that in itself is a great thing.

If I was looking to invest money in cards on a strict profit-related basis, I would look for cards that derive their values from who is depicted and what sets they are in, not from condition, and would decide whether to go for quick scores or longer term appreciation.

The problem with so-called condition rarities, IMO, is that you are one slab from losing money. Low pop is great until it falls one card over the line to hi pop. I also would prefer to have my money spread in ten mid-grade first-rank prewar HOFers than one high grade star or a few high grade commons. The market for Ty Cobb and Walter Johnson is a blue chip one; the market for Joe Shlabotnik in an 8 is a much thinner one.

I'd avoid most anything postwar since it can all be readily be purchased on Ebay; not much hope for price gains there except as an overall market increases.

I'd look for issues that are underappreciated right now. If every 1920s Ruth is $500 except for strip cards at $100, I'd opt for 5-10 strip cards.

I would look to scarcer (regional) issues over mainstream issues if looking at postwar cards. My experience has been that a tough regional of a HOFer or popular player has a ready audience even when that same player's mainstream card can be a tough sell.

If the idea is quick gain versus long term appreciation, I would be looking to get into auction bulk lots, break them and sell them. The auctioneers routinely cluster together all sorts of stuff that would and should sell for more, so there is a great opportunity to break it up.

If you are really investment-oriented, you need to look away from baseball cards and into other sports and nonsports. The gains to be had in those areas are oftentimes much greater than in baseball cards.

Sic Gorgiamus Allos Subjectatos Nunc

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  #14  
Old 06-06-2008, 02:51 PM
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Posted By: Eric Brehm

Maybe the best advice to follow in this area would be that of Will Rogers: "You want to make money in the stock market? Then buy some stock. If it goes up, sell it. It it goes down, don't buy it."

Seriously, I have never thought of trying to identify under-appreciated issues, like regionals or football cards or whatever, that I thought I might make a good profit on if I 'invested' in them. I have bought what I like, which happens to be mainstream, blue chip stuff, both pre-war and post-war. My assumption is that if I sell it all someday, I'll at least get my money back, but who the heck knows.

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Old 06-06-2008, 03:04 PM
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Posted By: JimCrandell

Agree with one previous poster--you will hear a lot of bs that cards are a hobby and put your money in your house(ugh!) or cds. This is wrong.

A portion of any investment portfolio should be in hard assets or collectibles. If baseball cards are chosen and its a longer term investment, high end vintage sportscards are the way to go. Besides my oil service and drilling stocks I own(ya gotta love $130/bbl oil-ha ha) my next best investment has been vintage sportscards. And its a lot more fun building high grade vintage sets than looking at your Schlumberger stock certificate.

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  #16  
Old 06-06-2008, 04:33 PM
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Posted By: barrysloate

I wasn't looking at your Schlumberger!

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  #17  
Old 06-06-2008, 05:21 PM
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Posted By: Steve

Just remember that when it comes time to sell baseball cards are not as liquid
as some other investments. Also subtract a pct. of your gains to the auction house.
(if you choose to divest that way)



Steve

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  #18  
Old 06-06-2008, 05:23 PM
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Posted By: Eric B

You just need to make the right choices as to which cards will go up. Like who would have expected this one. Heck, it's not even a 1 of 1 pop.

WARNING: Sit down before opening.

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&rd=1&item=160245483888&ssPageName=STRK:MEWA:IT&ih=006>

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Old 06-06-2008, 05:59 PM
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Posted By: Marc S.

Surely you can't invest in those companies about which you provide research reports, right?

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  #20  
Old 06-06-2008, 06:28 PM
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Posted By: Rob D.

Thanks for posting that link, Eric, because it illustrates one of the pitfalls of investing in cards. That card and holder sold for $11,000-plus. If that card were in a PSA 9 holder, it would sell for roughly half that -- maybe. At least if I invest in a work of art, the piece will hold its value no matter what kind of frame is around it. Where's the value in that Three Stooges card? Obviously, a lot of the value is in the holder. I think most people would agree that if they were to invest in cards, they'd choose graded ones. Given the uncertainty in accuracy that's been commonplace within the grading industry in recent years, I'd be hesitant to "invest" a lot of money in a product that's going to rely heavily on the holder that a card rests in.

Another possible negative that I think folks on this board overlook is it wouldn't be that easy to predict what cards will appreciate. Sure, everyone can remember buying that lot of 30 pre-war cards for $300 15-20 years ago and later selling them piece by piece for a total of $3,000. But everyone blocks out the cards they bought and sold at a loss because the market was soft when they chose to sell. It's like when you're playing craps and have a feeling that an 11 is coming on the next roll and are correct. You tell that story for years about how you hit a 15-1 shot. What you forget is all the times when you had that feeling -- and maybe didn't bet it -- and the next roll was a 9. We have a lot of experts on this board, but I honestly think only a handful could take $50,000-$100,000 and turn a profit investing in cards. I'm not talking about dealers. I mean collectors who go into a transaction buying only for investment.

And let's say you have the skill and knowledge to pull it off, Would you be willing to sink a lot of money into an issue or card that's totally off most people's radar screens, that's not "hot" -- and then be willing to wait the required amount of time for demand to drive prices to a point that you'll make money? Kudos to you if you fit that mold.

Plus, as someone already pointed out, cards aren't all that liquid. Even if you're on the mark with your picks and you've built profit on paper, you still need to find a buyer.

It's easy to say, "Buy rare cards or Hall of Famers in high grade if you're going to invest." The trouble is, your competition for these cards are collectors who aren't buying for investment, and therefore likely will push the price beyond a level in which you'll be able to make a profit. On Monday I can make a call and buy all the IBM stock I want. So can you. So can my neighbor. So can your neighbor. We all can't do the same with near-mint to mint pre-war Hall of Famers.

Finally, given that the original post on this topic includes the lament that the stock market has underperformed for a period of -- gasp -- five months, I wonder who many collectors would have the stomach to "invest" in a largely unregulated marketplace in which grading services, auction houses and other third-party marketplaces (like eBay) are continuously questioned about their business practices.

Maybe it's semantics, but I think making money as a result of collecting cards and investing in cards are two different things. And I think the second one is a lot tougher than people think.

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  #21  
Old 06-06-2008, 08:24 PM
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Posted By: Cy

Eric,

If you noticed, ONE extra bid on the Three Stooges card cost the winner $6K

Cy

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  #22  
Old 06-06-2008, 08:58 PM
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Posted By: jeffdrum

I've just seen the first 4 Stooges card! - Just Kidding!

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  #23  
Old 06-06-2008, 09:40 PM
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Posted By: Steve

Nyuk Nyuk Nyuk



Steve

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  #24  
Old 06-06-2008, 10:14 PM
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Posted By: John Basilone

Take a look at that guy's feedback. I believe he's spent approx $50k in 3 Stooges cards in the past month!

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  #25  
Old 06-07-2008, 08:21 AM
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Posted By: boxingcardman

Having just filled out and sent in my claims form for my Enron losses, I wouldn't call American big business or Wall Street a paragon of virtue either. You are hoping to roll an 11 with stocks too, but with considerably less information about the odds. If you took all of the scandals and questionable practices of card graders, sellers and buyers and lumped them together they would not even come close to the "business as usual" practices of Wall Street. All the ex-con card folks I know did their prison time for offenses committed in other areas of life.

Sic Gorgiamus Allos Subjectatos Nunc

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  #26  
Old 06-07-2008, 08:42 AM
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Posted By: MVSNYC

rarity + condition is the formula...(as mr. levy elluded to with his plank example). i recommend the highest graded T206 rare backs you can get...Drum, Uzit, Red Hindu, BL 460, etc...

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  #27  
Old 06-07-2008, 08:54 AM
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Posted By: leon

I also think high grade rare backs would be a good way to go too.....however, one thing we haven't really touched on is the "buy" prices. On the recent D304 Cobby that went for 109k, I would think it would be a great investment type card but that buy price is going to take some time to catch up to it.....imo. I heard it could have gone higher too.....all I can say to that is "wow". SO all of the discussion we have had about this really should include the "buy" price imo. I am pretty sure I have some great cards that would be great investments but I might have overpaid for them when I bought them. Knowledge is the key.....Timing is important too...

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Old 06-07-2008, 09:26 AM
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Posted By: MVSNYC

Leon- you are correct...it goes without saying that you want to get in on the "ground floor" or at least as cheap as you can...overpaying is never a good thing, especially when you are buying for investment purposes.

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  #29  
Old 06-07-2008, 09:56 AM
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Posted By: Rob D.

All the ex-con card folks I know did their prison time for offenses committed in other areas of life.

I guess the above is a statement of endorsement?

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  #30  
Old 06-07-2008, 11:36 AM
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Posted By: boxingcardman

Every time there is another Wall Streeter doing a perp walk I have only one thought: "Please not Jewish"

Sic Gorgiamus Allos Subjectatos Nunc

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  #31  
Old 06-07-2008, 12:38 PM
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Posted By: ali_lapoint

baseball cards for the most part are wise investments for future generations. all the vintage cards you have were worth nothing when 90 percent of the owners had them. that said, if you spend 50K on a baseball card now you're going to have to wait an awfully long time for it to get high enough to make a significant profit from it. 50K is a big number, and it'll take quite a few years for a card already valued that high to increase further in value. you probably won't live to see your 50K card rise to the 100-200K price range especially if you're a middle aged man now.

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  #32  
Old 06-07-2008, 12:46 PM
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Posted By: steve

In the BST section - T206 Lajoie PSA 9.

At $14k current offer. Is it worth a $14.5K offer ?

What is population (my PSA membership expired) in PSA 9, assume one ?
How many PSA 9 pops in other major HOFers?
Any recent sale info for PSA 9 major HOFers in T206?
Gut feeling from you folks regarding price?

Thanks, Steve

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  #33  
Old 06-07-2008, 01:01 PM
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Posted By: Bruce Dorskind

Investing In Baseball Cards

We have been active as serious collectors of rare high condition baseball cards for three decades. We have found that baseball cards, much like other collectibles, are good investments when three criteria are met:
(1)One acquires the item in an “investment grade condition”
(2)One is willing to hold the item for a reasonable period of time-probably two-three years
(3)One acquires items for which there is an established market

Many years ago, we built a modest pattern coin collection. Whilst all the coins we acquired were investment grade condition, and we owned the collection for more than four years, the market for US patterns is relatively thin. A $100,000 investment realized about $87,000 (after selling fees).

We track the market performance of all the $1000+ cards that we acquire. Generally, they have appreciated, but the baseball card market, like other collectible markets can be quite fickle. Several years ago we sold a large group of PSA 8 1915 Cracker Jacks and PSA 8 1941 Playballs (there were more than 100 cards involved, and only 20 were Hall of Famers (with no big name Cracker Jacks). We owned the cards on average for 30+ months. Yet, in the end with selling fees, we barely covered our original purchase price.

Generally, we agree with most of the comments. Baseball cards can be a good investment. Generally, they are not liquid, and on a macro basis it only makes sense to invest in relatively rare, high grade cards. If one is going to be a true investor, than one should be willing to take advantage of an opportunity. If a card that one has acquired for $5000 suddenly is “hot” and someone offers $50,000 sell it. The market is very, very thin. This point can not be overstated.

We believe that many items which realize prices which are significantly greater than the “current market value” have been driven by one or two non-investor collectors. With some notable exceptions, it is rare that the same card realizes a record price the second and third time it is sold.

If one is going to be a true investor, then one must always be willing to strip away the collector mentality and sell at the right price.

Our hope is to build the country’s foremost ultra high grade type collection, and some day donate the collection to several different museums including the Museum of the City of New York, The Negro League Museum, The New York Historical Society and perhaps, if they are interested, Cooperstown.

Bruce Dorskind
America’s Toughest Want List




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  #34  
Old 06-07-2008, 01:31 PM
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Posted By: barrysloate

Excellent post Bruce.

I too can say that most of the very high prices I get in my auctions are the result of two bidders. Take one out of the equation and the price realized would plummet.

But for more pedestrian meat and potatoes material the market is deep and the prices are strong but not spectacular. Sometimes they are even disappointing. Oddly, even with a deep pool of bidders a somewhat common lot will only achieve average results. So rarity is certainly a factor for an investment.

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Old 06-07-2008, 01:34 PM
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Posted By: MVSNYC

steve-

over the past 2 years, i purchased about half of the PSA 9 T206's that hit the auction blocks (7 out of about 14 or so)...mostly were commons in the $7-9K range. i did purchase a PSA 9 Keeler with bat, from mastro's in december for what i think was a steal ($9K)...i think that card is conservatively worth $12-13K...i have since traded or sold all of my 9's. i think they are GREAT investments. out of 80,000+ T206 cards PSA has graded, less than 300 have achieved Mint 9.

with all that said, i think the Lajoie 9 is worth about what they are asking...

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Old 06-07-2008, 01:56 PM
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Posted By: Brian

The Bruces forgot one item on the list, and that is to purchase the card well below market value.

The best way to make money in baseball cards? Find an uneducated seller.

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  #37  
Old 06-07-2008, 03:28 PM
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Posted By: Bruce Dorskind



To steal a line from the Sy Syms

"An uneducated seller is our best customer."

We have made countless purchases from our advertising and aggressive networking.

We have found the best way to obtain the ultra high grade rare cards that we are looking
for is to educate the seller (if he/she needs it) about the items he has.

We have obtained 6 Boston Garters and a complete E 125 American Caramel set from
people living in the sticks. In each case, we paid above market at the time.
Those same people referred us to others.

Truly rare cards are extremely difficult to acquire cheaply. Sometimes the effort associated
with attempting to steal a card will cost one the opportunity.

In any case we are not investors. We only sold when a personal situation arose and/or when we trade
up, obtain duplicates or switch areas of focus. As a collector our focus is obtaining the best
card we can afford.....we are not investors.

Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List

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  #38  
Old 06-07-2008, 04:52 PM
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Posted By: leon

Your last post is absolutely positively wrong.....but good guess.....email me if you are interested....but what you said couldn't be farther from the truth...

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  #39  
Old 06-07-2008, 05:46 PM
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Posted By: boxingcardman

that royal wee thing is hard to read. Perhaps it's about time for His Weenis to retire it?

Sic Gorgiamus Allos Subjectatos Nunc

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  #40  
Old 06-07-2008, 06:12 PM
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Posted By: Brian

<<We have made countless purchases from our advertising and aggressive networking.>>

How many from Mastro or REA?

If ya'll pay top dollar, then you win cards in big auctions, right?

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  #41  
Old 06-07-2008, 08:09 PM
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Posted By: Bob

Pre-war mid grade cards continue to be a very good investment. Over the last 15 years I have completed sets, sold them for a profit and plowed the money back in to more card sets. I've sold 2 T207 sets, for example, and have one in the safe. The current T207 set was paid for completely with the profits generated from the first two sets. While I won't rank up there with the guys who can toss 10k+ for a single card, steady collecting, trying to buy low and sell high with mid grade cards is the way for the average collector to go. Besides, if the cards suddenly have zero value, I still have a bunch of beautiful card sets which I love. If they retain their value or go up (almost all have), I have a nice nest egg. The only time I go after the high graded cards is when I need a particular card for a set, otherwise mid-grade cards with nice images and eye appeal are fine with me.
I understand why some collectors think it is great to have a PSA 6 E90-1 Joe Jackson, and how much the up-side is, but the down side is kind of scarey to Joe Collector.
Probably not what some of you want to hear but there is steady growth in the vg and vgex pre-war cards and although the upside is not as great, the down side is not too much either.
Just my 2 cents

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  #42  
Old 06-07-2008, 08:21 PM
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Default Vintage cards as investments

Posted By: JimCrandell

Good stuff Bruce. Focusing on quality and rarity will certainly be a good investment even though that is not your primary purpose.

Also very generous to plan on donating your collection to a museum. If my son turns out not to want my collection I have thought of buying a building and converting it to a museum to put my collection on permanent display.

Jim

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Old 06-07-2008, 09:34 PM
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Default Vintage cards as investments

Posted By: Christopher

Stocks in general haven't moved up much since the Tech bubble crash in 1999 nearly 10 years ago. The market as a whole has basically been treading water.

How about the price of real estate 3-5 years ago vs. now?

Compare high-end vintage card price appreciation over the same period.

I'm not saying anyone should put all their eggs in one basket like baseball cards. However, a well-diversified portfolio can certainly include collectibles, precious metals, art, etc.

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Old 06-07-2008, 11:30 PM
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Default Vintage cards as investments

Posted By: Bobby Binder

If you want to get the best return on your investment then this is what I suggest you do. Check out the set registries and see what sets the whales are currently collecting. Then buy the highest grades of all the sets they don't have yet. Then watch them and see when they start buying the cards you have then start selling them and you will be sure to get huge dollars in return.

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Old 06-08-2008, 12:51 AM
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Default Vintage cards as investments

Posted By: Rhett Yeakley

Call me crazy, but what is the motivating factor for people to donate ANYTHING to a museum, other than a tax write off?

Why would you want your prized items to rot in a basement of some museum, never to be seen again (a la the Burdick Collection)?

It is something that people throw around and I have never really understood!!! If I die tomorrow I would want my wife to sell my stuff to the people here on the forum (or people like you) that will appreciate the cards for what they are, not some stuffy Museum.

Just my 2-cents
-Rhett

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Old 06-08-2008, 04:56 AM
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Default Vintage cards as investments

Posted By: JimCrandell

Rhett,

Two points:
1)I would not donate them to a museum to have them sit in the basement. I would open a museum entirely devoted to displaying my collection.

2)The purpose would be so that more people could see the collection than if it was broken up and sold to others.

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Old 06-08-2008, 04:59 AM
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Default Vintage cards as investments

Posted By: barrysloate

Another problem with donating baseball cards to a museum is that if the general public is allowed to view them over time some will certainly be stolen. That has happened in almost every museum or library where security was lax and anyone who made an appointment could see them.

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Old 06-08-2008, 08:14 AM
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Posted By: Frank Wakefield

Collecting ball cards is fine. Fooling yourself into thinking that it is a wise investment isn't fine. Notwithstanding posts to the contrary; invest in mutual funds, stocks, bonds, an education, home, real estate, buy land and plant hardwood saplings... those are reasonable investments. Ball cards; one is merely justifying overspending on a passion by mislabeling the passion. This topic shows up every 6 to 8 months. I think it was Vin Scully who said something along the lines of how a drunk uses a lamp post for support, not illumination. Until the 'investors' see the light, they'll continue to lean on their faulty, wishful reasoning.

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Old 06-08-2008, 08:23 AM
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Default Vintage cards as investments

Posted By: Steve

Cards can be a very good investment, but it seems that the best returns are on those that
bought in as a hobby.

Can people make money on cards? Of course they can, but those that do usually
are the ones that did not try.


Steve

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Old 06-08-2008, 08:43 AM
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Default Vintage cards as investments

Posted By: Tim

I think buying cards strcitly for investments is not wise. If you're looking for a true investment there are many more places to put your money to insure a return, or at equal risk net a bigger return.

I have cards I've gotten at incredible deals that I could easily flip for a quick profit, but I was looking for them because I wanted them, not to sell them. Thankfully those offset the one's I have overspent on

I always refer to my cards as my "collection" and never as my "investment."

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