Auctions prices in the latest Heritage Auction

[parkplace33]

I am seeing some chatter about how some of the cards in the most recent Heritage auction was not as strong. Thoughts? Any chance we are going to see prices come down to pre pandemic levels?

[Snapolit1]

I mean these auctions now run on an endless loop. How can fatigue not set in at some point.

[Kidnapped18]

All the cards I followed and/or bid on were still very strong price wise. 50%+ on most from last year in same/similar condition/grade.

[3-2-count]

I don’t know. Everything that I was tracking sold for a ton.

Example: Psa 6 T206 Johnny Evers portrait - after the BP $13,800.00

[oldjudge]

The W600 prices appeared very strong. A Ruth rookie with the most common ad back and no left border sold for $325,000 in 3.5. If it was centered better it probably would have sold for between $400,000 and $500,000. I don’t see any problems with the market.

[rand1com]

I didn't see any great bargains. A card here or there may have fallen through but I don't think a lot did. I'm not a T206 collector but look at prices on the key ones and they still look strong to me.

Whatever I do bid on, I almost always get outbid even when I bid much more than I meant to. Usually, I'm happy to be outbid in those instances.

I won one obscure lot that I guess few were interested in. Even on that lot, I bid my max to win.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by rand1com

I didn't see any great bargains. A card here or there may have fallen through but I don't think a lot did. I'm not a T206 collector but look at prices on the key ones and they still look strong to me.

Whatever I do bid on, I almost always get outbid even when I bid much more than I meant to. Usually, I'm happy to be outbid in those instances.

I won one obscure lot that I guess few were interested in. Even on that lot, I bid my max to win.

+1 agreed I thought the prices were strong. Perhaps some could have gone higher but I missed the bargains and other cards like 1915 CJ Joe jackson Authentic for $21,600 is very strong

[swarmee]

If you were buying PSA Goudeys, you were only getting 98% of the card... ;-)

[Carter08]

Prices seemed strong to me. Not mind blowing but no big sign of softening from what I saw.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by parkplace33

I am seeing some chatter about how some of the cards in the most recent Heritage auction was not as strong. Thoughts? Any chance we are going to see prices come down to pre pandemic levels?

I do think we see prices come down to pre pandemic levels. Mostly on second tier guys middle and lower grade. I’ve seen it at shows, people are favoring raw cards over graded. Guys buying super stars in these big auctions, inflation, gas prices up ect have little to no affect on them, so it’s harder to judge but it is moderating, people are being careful, the FOMO is over, that’s for sure. I’ll say the middle class is not going to be spending like they did at last years national. These Big Time Auction are hard to gauge. I will say I noticed a 56 mantle in psa 8 only sold for $15,000, that still to much, but here is the reality about it, last year they were insanely selling for over 20k in psa 8.

[jsfriedm]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

I do think we see prices come down to pre pandemic levels. Mostly on second tier guys middle and lower grade. I’ve seen it at shows, people are favoring raw cards over graded. Guys buying super stars in these big auctions, inflation, gas prices up ect have little to no affect on them, so it’s harder to judge but it is moderating, people are being careful, the FOMO is over, that’s for sure. I’ll say the middle class is not going to be spending like they did at last years national. These Big Time Auction are hard to gauge. I will say I noticed a 56 mantle in psa 8 only sold for $15,000, that still to much, but here is the reality about it, last year they were insanely selling for over 20k in psa 8.

Speaking of 1956 Mantles, a PSA 5 sold for $1,620. Haven't seen that price in about two years.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by jsfriedm

Speaking of 1956 Mantles, a PSA 5 sold for $1,620. Haven't seen that price in about two years.

Exactly it’s not all butterflies and daisy’s..people only wanna see the comps they wanna see....it’s pulling back especially post war....they pushed it to far the last couple of years....psa 5 Mickey Mantle is Middle class blue collar that’s a big reason why it’s coming down. It should be a $900-$1,000 card in a 5 Max

[MR RAREBACK]

Wanted the mello mint Mathewson, that sure went up a lot the last day

[Carter08]

Originally Posted by jsfriedm

Speaking of 1956 Mantles, a PSA 5 sold for $1,620. Haven't seen that price in about two years.

Was it a centered new grade? One just auctioned on eBay for 3k.

[Casey2296]

Pre war as strong as ever, post war getting soft.

[jsfriedm]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

Pre war as strong as ever, post war getting soft.

No, it wasn't the strongest example. But plenty of equivalent ones have sold for 2-3K in the last two years. The lot I was most interested in was the complete PSA graded T205 set. I conservatively estimated that had a breakup value of about 100K, though that was definitely on the low end given recent T205 prices. It went for 117K. A solid price, but not a spectacular one.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by jsfriedm

No, it wasn't the strongest example. But plenty of equivalent ones have sold for 2-3K in the last two years. The lot I was most interested in was the complete PSA graded T205 set. I conservatively estimated that had a breakup value of about 100K, though that was definitely on the low end given recent T205 prices. It went for 117K. A solid price, but not a spectacular one.

Same thing going on in high cost real estate, deals going for 150k over ask are now going for ask, but the ask price is still high and sellers are getting their price. I do think there was deals to be had like Ryan's Plows Cobb.

[sportscardpete]

Feels like pre-war, high quality cards are as strong as ever. And people have been calling the demise of vintage for many many years. Hard to believe them now.

[jamest206]

I lost out on the main two I was bidding for. Lundgren(was too tired to stay up, long work week). It sold decently, a green Cobb Portrait as well. Probably should have put all my cash on the Lundgren T206 and gave up on the pipe dream I bid of about 6k for the nice SGC A Cobb green portrait. Or forgot about both of these and just went after the 1933 complete Goudey. Prices on this looked really auction looked really good. The thing that did piss me off was some sort of lock up right before overtime on some bids I did want to make. REA has a decent auction going now. My lesson has finally been learned, focus on ONE THING and get it!!!!! The last big REA was the one that surprised me on pricing for the Spring though

[DeanH3]

E93 Cobb PSA 4 $11.5K and an SGC 1.5 just under $4K are strong prices. T206 prices looked strong as well. Maybe we see a pullback later on? We shall see.

[molenick]

I was bidding mainly on Diamond Stars. I managed to win some but found the bidding very competitive and the prices to be strong. There were some "bargains" but they all seemed to be for cards I already had. I think that just means that people collecting this set are all finding the same cards to be difficult (either based on condition or rarity) and are willing to pay to get them.

[brianp-beme]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

Same thing going on in high cost real estate, deals going for 150k over ask are now going for ask, but the ask price is still high and sellers are getting their price. I do think there was deals to be had like Ryan's Plows Cobb.

Out of curiosity I looked up the selling price of the Plow's Candy Cobb (great card by the way Ryan), and saw that it had sold for almost exactly 3x the amount the same exact card, in same holder, sold for 6 years ago (in fact exactly six years to the date...kinda cool).

In a normal world (which I mean the past in our hobby) that would be a great profit for the seller, but the market for BIG NAME HOF'ers has, as everyone and their doctor knows, gone nuts the last several years, so yes indeed I think this particular card came at a great bargain price.

Brian

[Rhotchkiss]

Brian, I agree with you. I by no means thought the plow’s Cobb went cheap. This is from VCP and shows psa 4 sales since 2006. They are all the one I bought except the top one which was a different psa 4. I think the card went for about the right amount in this market, and certainly represents a very strong increase in 5 years.

What’s most important to me on this chart is that the card has always increased in value (even is only slightly)

[robertsmithnocure]

Originally Posted by brianp-beme

Out of curiosity I looked up the selling price of the Plow's Candy Cobb (great card by the way Ryan), and saw that it had sold for almost exactly 3x the amount the same exact card, in same holder, sold for 6 years ago (in fact exactly six years to the date...kinda cool).

In a normal world (which I mean the past in our hobby) that would be a great profit for the seller, but the market for BIG NAME HOF'ers has, as everyone and their doctor knows, gone nuts the last several years, so yes indeed I think this particular card came at a great bargain price.

Brian

I agree with Brian and Ryan also. The E300 Cobb is a great card, but it sold for about what I was expecting. It has the highest population of any of the E300 Plows cards and of the 8 PSA graded examples, there are 5 that are actually graded higher than this one. Also, and not they they always accurate, but Heritage’s estimate was $50K vs the $63K that it realized.

This is not to take anything away from the card at all, but I do not think that it is a good example of Heritage’s prices being soft.

[MVSNYC]

Originally Posted by 3-2-count

I don’t know. Everything that I was tracking sold for a ton.

Example: Psa 6 T206 Johnny Evers portrait - after the BP $13,800.00

+1

I agree with Tony...T206 prices continue to be very strong.

[Exhibitman]

The only honest way to answer this sort of question is to create a spreadsheet of prices on specific cards and then track them over time. I've done that with about 100 cards, mostly prewar. I think the highest prices on most issues were last Fall during Omicron, but they haven't fallen much from there.

[EddieP]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

What’s most important to me on this chart is that the card has always increased in value (even is only slightly)

Interesting. I’m far from being an expert in this but it appears that this card is mimicking a T-Bill @ ~ 3.0 to 3.5% interest ( with the interest that you would otherwise earn in cash being factored into the price of the card).

[DCJayhawk]

As someone who won a T 206 Cobb, prices were strong, but there were a few that slipped through the cracks or got overshadowed by the same card in a slightly higher grade. Everything Ive seen shows prewar and specifically T 206 prices are as strong as ever with no signs of it stopping.

[rjackson44]

nothing was cheap market very strong

[ejharrington]

I was shut out on some cards I fully expected to win as I was intent on bidding whatever it takes.

Also in the last couple of weeks I got outbid on a PSA 10 1979 Topps Rick Burleson and a 1985 Fleer PSA 10 Steve Balboni for over $600 and $300 respectively. I put in huge snipe bids and I wasn’t even the first underbidder on either.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by EddieP

Interesting. I’m far from being an expert in this but it appears that this card is mimicking a T-Bill @ ~ 3.0 to 3.5% interest ( with the interest that you would otherwise earn in cash being factored into the price of the card).

I am not sure what other investments the “return” can be compared to, but I do recognize that it is hardly a home run (going back to 2006) and that there are likely many other, more profitable investments. With cards, I am not going for the home run. Instead, I am going for preservation and safe growth; total bonus that I love cards, I get to hold and show the investment, and get to buy things I think are cool.

For me, the role that cards play is a slow and steady protector and grower of wealth that happens to be really fun and cool. This is why I collect/buy what I do - old and rare items of blue chip HOFers. And, even with this game plan, I sometimes hit home runs, which adds a little “alpha” to an otherwise safe allocation; I also miss sometimes on items but never huge.

If I wanted to day trade, I would buy the shinny stuff. If I wanted a higher return, then I would put my card money elsewhere or maybe into other cards. So, when I see a 15 year history of value increase on a rare Ty Cobb card, I hit the buy button.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I am not sure what other investments the “return” can be compared to, but I do recognize that it is hardly a home run (going back to 2006) and that there are likely many other, more profitable investments. With cards, I am not going for the home run. Instead, I am going for preservation and safe growth; total bonus that I love cards, I get to hold and show the investment, and get to buy things I think are cool.

For me, the role that cards play is a slow and steady protector and grower of wealth that happens to be really fun and cool. This is why I collect/buy what I do - old and rare items of blue chip HOFers. And, even with this game plan, I sometimes hit home runs, which adds a little “alpha” to an otherwise safe allocation; I also miss sometimes on items but never huge.

If I wanted to day trade, I would buy the shinny stuff. If I wanted a higher return, then I would put my card money elsewhere or maybe into other cards. So, when I see a 15 year history of value increase on a rare Ty Cobb card, I hit the buy button.

Ditto, but substitute Ruth or Jackie Robinson, for me. Not a big Cobb fan, tho I have several. What's your favorite, Ryan? Mines the Colgan's. Love that Horner portrait.

[Johnny630]

To me It’s a tale of two markets,

REA/Heritage/Goldin Equals
Wall Street Buyers/White Collar Buyers-inflation has zero affect on their spending habits, so that being said the high end market card are fine.

Private Sales BST/ or In Person at shows are blue collar Main Street buyers.
Inflation has definitely affected their spending habits, they’re not spending on middle and lower grade I’m sorry they’re just not spending as much.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

To me It’s a tale of two markets,

REA/Heritage/Goldin Equals
Wall Street Buyers/White Collar Buyers-inflation has zero affect on their spending habits, so that being said the high end market card are fine.

Private Sales BST/ or In Person at shows are blue collar Main Street buyers.
Inflation has definitely affected their spending habits, they’re not spending on middle and lower grade I’m sorry they’re just not spending as much.

100% accurate. The average collector has absolutely pulled back spending on cards. Might not be impacting people who focus on REA/HA type venues, even if they are not Wall Street types but demand overall has slowed down significantly. Harder to see it, now, in an auction that takes place every 3 months and takes place over a given night. Hearing more and more from guys who are selling on eBay that it is getting quiet.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

To me It’s a tale of two markets,

REA/Heritage/Goldin Equals
Wall Street Buyers/White Collar Buyers-inflation has zero affect on their spending habits, so that being said the high end market card are fine.

Private Sales BST/ or In Person at shows are blue collar Main Street buyers.
Inflation has definitely affected their spending habits, they’re not spending on middle and lower grade I’m sorry they’re just not spending as much.

Where do you put the National, since that is a live, in-person, show?

[chriskim]

Jordan RC PSA-10 isn't going back to $700k level that's for sure.

However, t206 Plank Auth sold for $120k is about right.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Ditto, but substitute Ruth or Jackie Robinson, for me. Not a big Cobb fan, tho I have several. What's your favorite, Ryan? Mines the Colgan's. Love that Horner portrait.

The collector in me likes the M131 Newsboys best bc they were given out only in 1911 and only to kids who delivered newspapers in Baltimore; plus, you could redeem the whole set for a $1. This set is so rare and it has all the cool E94 poses.
Aside from the HOFers (Cobb, Wagner, Young, Speaker, etc), I don’t think the set is the best investments though

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by BobC

Where do you put the National, since that is a live, in-person, show?

Bob this is a good question I would put the National on the same page as above.

Big ticket items, if the right buyers are there will sell well. Not as good at Chicago, white collar guys likes the ease of Auctions, and Atlantic City I wouldn’t consider swanky enough for the Uber wealthy, Chicago is much better. Not beating down any town or talking one up I'm just telling it like it is.

Lower ticket items, blue collar guys affected by fuel and food inflation won’t be spending as frivolous as last year, especially on low grade raw, it will be a struggle. It will be a lot of bargain hunting, don’t expect anyone paying up on off grade raw cards, I just don't.

This is just my opinion but I feel like I have a good pulse on the market.

[parkplace33]

Ive seen a lot of commentary on this auction and recent auction prices across net54 and boards.

I do believe the market for cards has turned south recently. Ask yourself this question… how easy would it be to sell a 5 figure card privately right now (at fair market)? I say not very easy.

Truth is reality.

[hcv123]

The last 3 shows I set up at were ridiculously busy (Valley Forge - February, Hofstra and Chantilly in April). Plenty of buyers at all price levels.
As noted above, I do see the prewar market incredibly strong as well as the high grade (= low supply) post war stuff. While I haven't seen it yet, I agree that low-mid grade post war is more susceptible to price weakness. Mantle, Mays, Clemente and Jackie being excepted.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by parkplace33

Ive seen a lot of commentary on this auction and recent auction prices across net54 and boards.

I do believe the market for cards has turned south recently. Ask yourself this question… how easy would it be to sell a 5 figure card privately right now (at fair market)? I say not very easy.

Truth is reality.

For the right card a deal could happen all day long, and does happen every day.

It just has to be the right card....(this isn't for sale but what type card I am talking about, not run of the mill)


.

[rjackson44]

Originally Posted by Leon

For the right card a deal could happen all day long, and does happen every day.

It just has to be the right card....(this isn't for sale but what type card I am talking about, not run of the mill)


.

Omg leon

[T205 GB]

The 33 Gehrig stalled out on what was set to be a great run up in price finally. Buying more now Thanks to a massive dump of all grades and then relisting of the same cards in high grade killed the market right away. No one wants to buy the same PSA 6 over and over Heritage! Just a big museum for me to look at.

It is not just Gehrig. Heritage is just a big ebay store window.