RE: T206 Backs Scarcity Lists

[Chicago206]

I think its fantastic that a ranking order of back scarcity exists for the 15 different cigarette companies of T206. What would be even more useful would be a list that included the relative scarcity as expressed in a quantitative multiplier. I am aware that something similar to what im talking about has been tried before in regards to pricing. I'd love to see the same theory applied to actual surviving populations though. While the task would no doubt be purely speculative, I havent a problem with that since many facets of this hobby are merely very educated "guesses" anyway.

The info that interests me is the disparity between cards on the scarcity list. For example, its fairly safe to assume that the gap difference between a BL460 (#3) and an Uzit (#4) is significant, while the gap between an Uzit (#4) and a Drum (#5) is extremely narrow, and possible even non-existant if you believe the 2 cards are equally scant.

Is there a way to quantify these discrepencies by using some type of "multiplier" system. You could theoretically start with the Old Mill brown and assign it a number "1". If you can make an accurate assumption that perhaps 12 of these are known to exist, then the BL460 (with about 40 known copies) would get assigned a number "3", hence making the BL460 about 3x more common than the OM brown. You could then make reasonable estimates of other backs thought to still survive, lets say 300 Drums for instance. We could then assign Drum the number "25", which would make it 25x more commonly found than the OM brown, and about 8x as common as the BL460. And so on and so forth.

As I stated earlier, this project involves alot of estimates and guesswork, but thats the nature of the hobby anyway. The list im talking about shouldnt/wouldnt go all the way down the 38 card subset, but may be useful for the top 15-20 on the scarcity list. I would LOVE to know, for example, approximately how rare a red Hindu is in relation to an Uzit, or an AB460. Does anyone else think this type of list would be fun and or helpful to the hobby?

[ullmandds]

aren't there multipliers in the big book for the different backs?

[FUBAR]

i think the big book has pricing multipliers, not sure how accurate they are...i remember seeing a 1.3 multiplier for a more rare back (but my big book is old)

But my opinion is that the most common backs would get the "1" such as piedmont 150 and then the more rare would gt the multiplier. such as Red hindu gets a "30 x" or whatever .


i would like to see an "average" price for each back for a 40 grade common.

so a Piedmont would be a $50 card where a Uzit would be a $1000 card or whatever the prices are....(i dont know thats why i wouldnt mind seeing it)

[collectbaseball]

I don't deal much with backs or T206s, so I don't know how accurate this is, but here is one such list:

http://www.t206museum.com/page/price_list2.html

[FUBAR]

cant be completely accurate, it list the Ty Cobb back as a 1:1 multiplier, we all know that is not true!

[JerryTotino]

The Ty Cobb back is a 1:1 multiplier on that site because it assumes that you use the price of an actual Ty Cobb back card as a starting point. Thus, the price of a Ty Cobb back is the actual price of a Ty Cobb back times a multiplier for the grade of the card. The higher the grade the higher the grade multiplier.

Jerry

[Chicago206]

Im pretty sure that you guys are talking about price multipliers. Im talking about surviving pop multiplier. For example, a common player brown hindu in a PSA 1 might bring $200. A common player red hindu in the same grade might bring $800. So thats a price multiplier of 4x. Theres no way in the world that for every 4 brown hindus there exists a red hindu though. That might be closer to a 15-1 or 20-1 or higher figure. See my point?

[JP]

I think Brown Hindus are worth FAR less than your example ($200 for a common PSA 1???) and I think Red Hindus aren't quite as scarce in comparison. Either way, I've never heard of a population multiplier...

[Chicago206]

Originally Posted by JP

I think Brown Hindus are worth FAR less than your example ($200 for a common PSA 1???) and I think Red Hindus aren't quite as scarce in comparison. Either way, I've never heard of a population multiplier...

Please define "FAR less". If by that you mean $100 or so, I'd like to buy 10 of them. Please PM me your mailing address so I can get a check out on Monday.

[wonkaticket]

I smell a Red Hindu in the BST soon.. (Kidding)

All of these cards have ballparks in prices, but in the end are only worth what someone is willing to sell them for or what someone is willing to pay.

On any given day that price changes to some degree. There really is no set price or market value for these things just a rough area of prices which go up and down based on supply and demand.

Also these price swings (up) are often driven by hype and someones need for a card. Example a Red Hindu Murphy to me is worth more because of my Murphy collection. But using that possible sale price as a line in the sand to set prices for any other Red Hindus is most likely not the norm.

Example JP will not see near the same cash for his Auth Plank as the previous Auth Plank from the last REA. For a number of factors.

John

[packs]

I don't think its outside the realm of possibility to get Brown Hindu commons for $100 or slightly over $100. You might have to pay $200 for a "nice" poor example. A Fred Clarke 10 just went for $177 last week, a George Brown 2 went for $260. A Bergen SGC 50 just went for $600.

[JP]

Originally Posted by Chicago206

Please define "FAR less". If by that you mean $100 or so, I'd like to buy 10 of them. Please PM me your mailing address so I can get a check out on Monday.

A common PSA 1 should be worth about $100, maybe a scratch more. A Hall of Famer PSA 1 might be $200 or a little less, but no way does a common 1 cost that much. I used to have 50 different Brown Hindus and am constantly watching their market value as it is one of my favorite backs. Sold half of them on B/S/T two years ago and then the other half on eBay and most of the buyers ended up being Net54ers. You may be gauging the price on the insane buy it nows, shilled auctions, or RARE commons that have sold for more recently.

Originally Posted by wonkaticket

Example JP will not see near the same cash for his Auth Plank as the previous Auth Plank from the last REA. For a number of factors.

John

John,

Biggest example being that there wasn't an AUTH Plank in the previous REA....at least not that I can find.

I still think as a far better looking example, and being a rarer Sweet Cap 150, my Plank is going to exceed all recent AUTH sales...

[FUBAR]

my statement didnt have anything to do with population and the multiplier.

All i stated was i wish there was a rough back price list for a 40 grade common

ie: Piedmont 150 - Approx $50
Sweet Cap - Approx $52 or whatever the amounts would be

[wonkaticket]

Originally Posted by JP

John,

Biggest example being that there wasn't an AUTH Plank in the previous REA....at least not that I can find.

I still think as a far better looking example, and being a rarer Sweet Cap 150, my Plank is going to exceed all recent AUTH sales...

http://www.robertedwardauctions.com/.../2009/890.html

Sneeky those REA listings...

[packs]

I don't think a Red Hindu common would run you $800 either. I remember not too long ago I had the opportunity to buy an Uzit 1 without any paper loss for $750. I would think a Red Hindu would be more in the $500 range.

[Chicago206]

Originally Posted by packs

I don't think a Red Hindu common would run you $800 either. I remember not too long ago I had the opportunity to buy an Uzit 1 without any paper loss for $750. I would think a Red Hindu would be more in the $500 range.

Best of luck in that search!!! I just bought one for $875, and it was a great deal compared to the $1250 asking price on another PSA 1 in a prominent dealer's inventory. You made a poor choice in not buying that Uzit by the way....a very poor choice!

[JP]

John,

Damn...there is a page two to the auction results. But yes, no AUTH will beat any card with the Gretzky designation.

I'd pay $500 MAX for a common PSA 1 Red Hindu. There are a lot out there...you just have to be patient.

[Rob D.]

Originally Posted by wonkaticket

http://www.robertedwardauctions.com/.../2009/890.html

Sneeky those REA listings...

No fair. You had to go back all the way to 2009 to dig that one up.

[packs]

Thank you for the well wishes in my search and for your clear wisdom on spending my money.

[JP]

Whatever prominent dealer is asking for $1275 for a common red, I'm sure is one of the same dealers we are complaining about in another thread. Chicago, in your quest to finish so quickly, you may have missed that there are PLENTY of lower prices to be had than what you paid.

[packs]

Plus why are you so obsessed with back prices when you just sold your back collection?

[JP]

Originally Posted by Rob D.

No fair. You had to go back all the way to 2009 to dig that one up.

I clicked on 2009 results and CTRL+F for "Plank" but didn't realize there was more than one page of results...

[ChiefBenderForever]

http://www.milehighcardco.com/LotDet...archvalue=t206

[JP]

Originally Posted by packs

Plus why are you so obsessed with back prices when you just sold your back collection?

I think that is what drives his learning process. Fine by me as long as it doesn't blow up again into a Chicago vs. The World again...

[Chicago206]

Originally Posted by JohnnyHarmonica

http://www.milehighcardco.com/LotDet...archvalue=t206

Wow...a PSA 2 of a common player hindu red for $1,400+? I'd just absolutely LOVE to see where these "plentiful" $500 PSA 1's are all hiding! Heres a hint....they are hiding in 2005.

[Chicago206]

Originally Posted by packs

Plus why are you so obsessed with back prices when you just sold your back collection?

This thread wasnt even about prices. Its about back scarcity relative to surviving populations....nothing to do at all with prices.

But to answer your question about why im interested, its because I decided to keep the Drum card and refocus only only the rarest backs. I picked up a red Hindu recently, and have bids in on several Uzits in auction. This thread went slightly off course when certain prices were mentioned that we disagree on. Most specifically that red Hindu you guys claim can be found easily at $500. I posted a BST challenge on that by the way. Lets see just how many I can snag at that $500 level.

[cfc1909]

Lake.jpgLakeb.jpg



pretty sure this is the Uzit that was offered at 750-I didn't pass...

Thank you Steve.

[JP]

Originally Posted by Chicago206

Wow...a PSA 2 of a common player hindu red for $1,400+? I'd just absolutely LOVE to see where these "plentiful" $500 PSA 1's are all hiding! Heres a hint....they are hiding in 2005.

Actually, I think if anything that Hindu was overpaid for, but if a 2 was worth $1400, a 1 would be worth half that....and I wouldn't pay $700 for a PSA 1 Red Hindu Hummel....I don't think most would. Here is a PSA 4 Hummel in last year's biggest auction, and with buyer's premium it only sold for $2115, and it was a PSA 4!

http://robertedwardauctions.com/auction/2009/168.html

And here are a couple recent sales of Red Hindu Hall of Famers

10/2009 Frank Baker - $763.65 - PSA 1 (Hall of Famer)
03/2009 Hugh Duffy - $950.08 - PSA 2 (Hall of Famer)

[packs]

That was the Uzit. Great card, just decided to spend elsewhere. I'm not saying that Red Hindu's are plentiful, but $870 plus sounds high to me. You come off strong. I can't tell if these are gotcha posts or just talking collecting experiences. I could care less how many you find in the BST. It doesn't sound like you are the type of collector to be patient and wait, which is probably why you overpay. For less than another $100 you could have gotten a HOFer a full grade higher. But you would have had to wait.

[Chicago206]

Originally Posted by packs

That was the Uzit. Great card, just decided to spend elsewhere. I'm not saying that Red Hindu's are plentiful, but $870 plus sounds high to me. You come off strong. I can't tell if these are gotcha posts or just talking collecting experiences. I could care less how many you find in the BST. It doesn't sound like you are the type of collector to be patient and wait, which is probably why you overpay. For less than another $100 you could have gotten a HOFer a full grade higher. But you would have had to wait.

That was over a year ago. I could have bought a Drum in a PSA 2 for about $1800 a year ago. I could have bought a common player Uzit for quite a bit less a year ago. I could have bought an ounce of gold, a car, a gallon of milk, a box of diapers...all cheaper a year ago. How can you compare prices of a year ago to today's pricing? Especially in a series as hot as rare backed T206? Johnny Harmonica gave us an example of a PSA 2 common player that sold for over $1400....not from a year ago, but rather a few months ago. Since I buy cards now, and not a year ago, I think its important to look at what cards are selling for now.....not a year ago.

[packs]

You want to buy cards now. No doubt about that.

[Chicago206]

Well, as much as I'd like to buy cards a year ago, my flux capacitor is on the fritz. So im stuck in the here and now with here and now pricing.

[packs]

You're right. About everything. Thank you for sharing your hobby knowledge. As a felow collector I really appreciate your insight.

[Wite3]

Chicago,
I think you are talking apples and oranges anyway...the brown and red hindus were printed in different series. Therefore, you really cannot compare the two fairly. Nearly all the higher series cards seemed to be in less quantity than the lower series whether you are talking piedmont or hindu. Not to mention, it is nearly impossible to decide a rarity multiplier because things come to market or are discovered all the time which changes your ratings.

Look at T205s as example. 20 years ago, Hindu T205s were a rumor. Then a small find came to market and it was thought they were rarer than Drums. Then another small Hindu find was made and suddenly T205 Drums were rarer. In the last 3 years at least two finds of T205 Drums has made the two backs about even again with Drum maybe pulling ahead a bit. Market rarity is very hard to determine and even the best multiplier will be a range (i.e. 5x-7x).

Ted can correct me on the T206s as I am not as familiar with them as with T205.

Joshua

[tedzan]

Why is the "wheel being re-invented", again ? Jim Rivera had an excellent thread on this same subject 3 weeks ago.
http://www.net54baseball.com/showthr...ght=t206+backs

Chicago206......either you are too lazy to do a SEARCH before you post, or you are a plagiarizer, or you have some
sort of an "agenda"......which is it ?


Joshua (Wite3)......regarding your......
" Chicago, I think you are talking apples and oranges anyway....the brown and red hindus were printed in different
series. Therefore, you really cannot compare the two fairly. Nearly all the higher series cards seemed to be in less
quantity than the lower series whether you are talking piedmont or hindu."

You are absolutely correct. The Brown HINDU's were issued in the 1st series (150 Subjects). The Red HINDU's were
printed in very late 1910; and, were issued with the last (460) series cards in late 1910 and early 1911.

Furthermore, you are also correct in stating that "higher series cards seemed to be in less quantity"....e.g., BROAD
LEAF, DRUM, LENOX, Red HINDU, UZIT.
This is the same phenomena that occurred with the post-war issues (Bowman & Topps cards), where the Hi # cards
are always tougher to find than the Lo # cards (simply due to lesser Hi # quantities printed).


TED Z

[Chicago206]

"Why is the "wheel being re-invented", again ? Jim Rivera had an excellent thread on this same subject 3 weeks ago.
http://www.net54baseball.com/showthr...ght=t206+backs

Chicago206......either you are too lazy to do a SEARCH before you post, or you are a plagiarizer, or you have some
sort of an "agenda"......which is it ?"



Ted, do you ever reply to any posts without using that cliche?

Ted, did you actually READ my opening post?

Ted, did you notice that I posted several times in Jim's thread?

What Jim's list did not include is the DISPARITY between the ranks on his list. Of course, if you yourself were not too lazy to read my opening post in this thread, you would have understood the type of information im talking about. But my wager is that you simply read the title of my post and decided you had found another opportunity to use your cute little wheel cliche. If im coming off a bit harsh sounding here its because according to your response, im either a "lazy" person, a "plagierizer", or someone with an "agenda". Since none of those 3 choices is very flattering, and you obviously did not take the 30 seconds to read my initial post, I dont mind "firing back". What the hell is wrong with some of you? Its as if you cannot wait to start bickering and assume the role of internet tough guy.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by packs

You're right. About everything. Thank you for sharing your hobby knowledge. As a felow collector I really appreciate your insight.

Best post of the morning. I am soaking it in like a frog on a log.

[cfc1909]

do not take this negative but maybe if you kept notes for 3 to 5 years you could make this list you talk about and share it with the board.

Most of the information here comes from years of collecting expirience and is shared with the board. Looks like you want to be a part of that but it is not going to happen overnight.

Board members helped you with aquiring cards and we know how that went so I am sure they will shy away from their giving nature at this point.

Only time and you can change that...

[Chicago206]

"Board members helped you with aquiring cards and we know how that went so I am sure they will shy away from their giving nature at this point."


This statement confuses me. A few board members DID sell me cards. The money I sent in return was real, and prompt. So where does the "we know how that turned out" come into play? Ask anyone on this forum if I have not been completely professional in the buying and selling of cards. I have always paid immediately, and always sent out a card that I sold very promptly. I have never backed out of a deal (except in the Blunder case), and im about as reliable as you will find when it comes to making a transaction here. It seems the biggest problem I have is that I wasnt aware that im not allowed to have an opinion about cards until I have been collecting for 25 years. I wish that was a part of the registration that I had to fill out for Leon. Something to the effect of:

"You may browse this forum all you want, but unless you have 25 years of experience, please do not think for yourself."

[albrshbr]

Chicago,

Let me see if I can address your original post. Like you, I am new to collecting pre-war, although I've been collecting cards for over 30 years. I took the advice of many on this board, and picked up examples of many different issues to help me narrow my decision on what to collect. I then started reading as much as I could about the different issues. I kept running across many posts about the different backs on the T206's, T205's, and e92's in particular. I found that although the different T206 backs are highly collected, not much attention (or price differnce) was paid for the tougher T205 backs. That's when I ran across the research that Joshua Levine (and Shawn Adkins) had done on the T205 backs. Joshua kept detailed records for 10+ years and expressed the rarity based on percentages of overall backs seen rather than as a "multipier" system. Needless to say, I'm now happily working on a T205 set, trying to pickup tougher backs whenever possible.


When I first read your post, I assumed that this type of research was already readily available regarding the T206 backs, because they are so much more collected than the T205's. I've spent quite a bit of time over the past couple of days looking for the info you're asking about, but I haven't run across it (I may have just overlooked it). I have seen a lot of lists ranking the scarcity, but no real numbers.

To more directly answer some of your questions, if the research was done you should be able to come up with a multipier system based on the percentages. I absolutely believe that this type of list would be fun and helpful to the hobby. As I stated earlier, it was this same type of list that led me to collect the T205's.

If you (or someone else) really wanted to compile a list like this, I think the initial data would be easier to obtain now than ever before. I believe Joshua had said he used data by looking at 17,000 cards over the years. The SGC population report now lists just over 17,000 cards that they have graded. This is info that was not available to him at the time. When I compared his data/conclusions to the SGC pop reports, they came out pretty close to each other. At the same time, I learned a bit more and came up with my own theories/conclusions. As you stated, this would still be very speculative, for many reasons (cracks and resubmits, cards not graded, possibly larger numbers of rare backs graded vs common backs, etc.), but I still think it would be helpful. You'll run across "anomolies" like the T206 Al Shaw, which shows 5 Hindu's, 5 Sovereign's, and 3 EPDG's. Another problem is that SGC (nor PSA) does not differenciate between the different backs of the companies. This would require more research, and take quite a bit of time. I wish the best of luck to anyone willing to take this on.

Since this is by far my longest post ever on this site (and probably my longest post anywhere), I'd like to thank Joshua for all the research he did over the years, and for sharing it with us. I am really enjoying collecting the T205's, and he is a big reason why.

[steve B]

I think you're missing the point.

A bit of an analogy...In baseball, there's "inside baseball" The little differences in how things are done that vary depending on what level you're at. Hopefully, minor leaguers have learned most of the major points before they make the big leagues. But they still make "rookie mistakes" until they've learned more. Even guys like Ichiro.

I was really impressed that you put together a basic backs collection so quickly.

And some elements of your questions are actually pretty good.

What bothers some of us is that when an idea or question of yours gets misunderstood there's little attempt at clarification, but a defensive stance.

Thinking for yourself is more than fine, but ignoring all that's gone before and reinventing the wheel isn't all that productive. The learning process is gradual, and should optimally include owning, viewing, or otherwise handling a large number of cards before you really KNOW the cards in question.
Or - Have some valid background experience that applies.

I've put forward a couple theories about the actual printing, and Ted graciously added some scans that indicated I might be wrong. I did a few more scans of my own, and realised that maybe I was wrong, or that there was another explanation for what I was seeing compared to how I'd thought things would have been done. In the end what I thought I knew got added to what Ted knows, and the result was an answer to a tiny part of a big question that became it's own small question. Now I'm pretty sure something didn't happen a particular way, and that gets us all closer to knowing what did happen.

So feel free to contribute and think, but be willing to adjust that thinking if the facts don't support the ideas. (Oooooh my science teacher would be so happy to read that!) Also be willing to clarify what you're asking if we don;t get it. Not everyone thinks the same way.


Steve B

[Sixtofan]

Bruce, nice thoughts. Most of the rest of the thread just makes me tired

edited to add, steve b added another good post while I was typing

[steve B]

Speaking of clarifying, my post was intended for Chicago, not Bruce.

Steve B

[albrshbr]

David G - many thanks for the kind words.

Steve B - I fully understood your comments were for Chicago.

Yes, it appears that perhaps Chicago made some "rookie" mistakes, but he's not the first to start a collection only to decide to change direction and start selling to support his new collection (he just did it in record time). And yes, some of his responses haven't sat well with some of the more veteran collectors, but he does seem to have a genuine interest in T206 backs. Although I do not collect T206's, I have read many posts about their backs and their scarcity levels. I've really enjoyed Ted Z's survey regarding the red Cobb and all the different backs, and some of the "surprises" from that survey. In the end, I do believe that doing something like this for all 520+ cards would be both fun and helpful for the hobby, I'm just not sure if something of this magnitude could be finished in 10 years. For anyone willing to take it on, I'm sure they could write a book that would sell very well to many of the collectors on this board.

FYI - I am not an alternate ID for Chicago, I just think he has a good point on this particular topic.

Bruce

[Wite3]

Thanks Bruce! I love those T205s!

[wonkaticket]

Originally Posted by JP

I clicked on 2009 results and CTRL+F for "Plank" but didn't realize there was more than one page of results...

http://bid.robertedwardauctions.com/...x?itemid=14790

JP the previous Plank is even mentioned several times in your cards lot description...

LOL no record of Auth Plank from last year...killing me..LOL

[JP]

John,

I got CTRL+F'ed over. I had thought there was one, but then when it didn't show up in the results I searched through, I talked myself out of it. I already pleaded stupidity!