Money in the hobby

[steve B]

Originally Posted by Bpm0014

How did tobacco companies, over 100 years ago, create cards that cannot be duplicated today (with our modern technology)? What did they do then, that we can't do now?

The printers then did things in ways that are different than what is commonly done today. None of it is anything we can't do now. The problem is the fine details. And forging a truly perfect replica of a T206 would require some serious skill in a number of areas. While society has generally trended away from generalists to specialists, the skills even back then were specialized.

You'd need to -

Be an expert on the materials used in several areas, and be able to use modern equipment to identify exactly what you need to make.

Be an expert on paper and how it's made.
Be able to replicate on a small scale what was done on a large scale. (Papermill vs handmade paper. )
Create the paper pulp - same sort of fibers, same fiber lengths and quality.
Create the sizing-
Create the coating for the front.

The closest paper I've found is comic book backing boards, which are too thick, but will pass most ordinary examinations.
But that paper isn't really the same.

Next, be an expert on the inks.
Figure out from spectrographic analysis what the carrier/hardener was and what the pigments were.
Then obtain those.
Not as easy as it seems, some in 1910 were probably early synthetic dyes, which may not be made anymore.
So you need to be a chemist as well to recreate those.

Be an expert printer.
Litho stones, how to lay them out, then you need a vintage press....

Recreate the original art.
Pretty difficult.
You need an original to work from to get it exact.

And after all that, the dating will never show it up as old.

Could a card be made that would pass a cursory examination by someone who really knew cards? Yes. Could one be made undetectable? No.

The closest I've ever seen was shown to me in maybe 82-83. A very nice 51 Mantle. Nicer than any 51 Bowman I'd ever seen. The dealer I hung out at handed it to me and asked what I thought. No opinion expressed either way. After a few minutes maybe 5-10 I gave it back and said it was a wonderful fake but I couldn't explain why I knew it was fake other than it just seemed "wrong" . That was his opinion as well, and that of I think at least 5 other dealers.
Today I could probably figure out why it seemed wrong.


Steve B

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Is it "The Emperor of Ice Cream"? It's just a guess.

Postcard from the Volcano

[barrysloate]

Don't know that one...now I have to spend the whole weekend reading Wallace Stevens.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by irishdenny

I have Always Referred to David's Knowledge of Ink Processing & Photography. His explanation of radiometric & carbon dating is sound teaching.
And even if it were possible ta somehow get by or around this major issue,
You still have the Papar Problem!

Ovar the Years From What I have found, We Simply Don't Know How the Papar was produced.
To think that someone in todays techno world could easily figure this out is Truly an immense project.
And iN Reality... No one would spend the Time, Effort & Money ta do So!
Only to Come uP Short of Victory!!!

I have looked at and discuss the material that is comprised within T206's, E90-1's & T205's wit a friend of mine(Who's Family own's one of the Largest Printin Co.'s in New York, His Great Grand Father start'd the Co. RiGHT Around 1901), And wit All His Knowledge, antique museum material, along wit his family past antique equipment, The whole bunch of'em are Clueless to how the papar was process'd/made!

Sure there are those wit well educated theory's...
Howevar, has Anyone replicated their theory inta a product & proved it can be done?

Kinda like Buildin a Viking longship or even replicatin their steel...
The World's Best have tried and fail'd!

LookiN at the Side view of a T206, under a 50x optic can be Truly FasinatiN...
If You havn't tried it as of yet, Giv'er a Go...

Kind of messing up the timelines by responding as I go through the thread. Sorry, can't think of a better way.

Knowing people in the printing business where it's a place that goes back to 1901 is pretty cool.

But it goes right to what I said in another post.
They really KNOW printing. But they don't make paper, so it's a mystery.

The paper people know how the paper was made. Cranes has a small museum in Dalton that shows the process that came before machine made paper.
The machine process isn't much different than making paper by hand, except for how it's more precise, and done on a very large scale.
I'm sure a mill would make you whatever you wanted - IF you bought enough. I sort of don't want to know what a minimum run of special paper is. I've had special stuff made a couple times, and finding a place that will make say 500 lbs /a few hundred feet of a special size metal tube is difficult. And that's just a small redraw mill, not an actual tubing mill.

So duplicating it would mean replicating the process on a small scale that's typically done by a very large machine. (The one that makes our money paper- if my Jr High memory is correct- is about 200 Ft long if not more.)
That's really not easy.

Steve B

[Snapolit1]

Not trying to push any political buttons, but we are a country of immense wealth disparity. I spend a decent amount of time down the Jersey shore, in an area that was devastated by Hurricane Sandy. Every grandma and grandpa bungalow that was destroyed by the storm has been replaced by a mansion 5 times larger. With a pool in the backyard. And it isn't a station wagon in the driveway but 2 BMWs. My wife constantly says to me "are there really that many people with so much money." Yes, there are. At least within driving distance of Wall Street. Some of these people spend $50,000 on a watch. Some have wine cellars with a half a million dollars of wine. Some spend hundreds of thousands buying racehorses. To spend $300,000 on a baseball card thinking (a) its really cool and (b) it very likely will appreciate or at least hold its value doesn't seem like a crazy idea at all. If you can say this is a 1 of 1 or a 1 of 10 of anything, I think it's a fine investment -- if you are rich and diversified. I have no doubt that a good scandal would hit the industry hard. And then it would come back. The racing industry has a scandal every few months and rich people still spend $5 million or more on untested, unproved race horses.

It's not the Mantle cards of the Satchel Paiges or the Babe Ruths that have me scratching my head. But people spending $50,000 on an unopened pack. Yeah, I'm not so sure about that.

[botn]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

I understand herd mentality, and everyone assumes the card they buy will be just as desirable when it comes time to sell. But I still have trouble with how much faith is put on that label.

If you have 1952 Topps Mantle that grades PSA 8, and you are able to convince the grader that it deserves an extra ".5" on the label- not a full grade, but a half grade- that grader has just created a half a million dollars of wealth out of thin area. How did such a market evolve? Something about this simply escapes me.

And Peter S. is correct that the label, and not the card, is the commodity (and I love Wallace Stevens).

Hi Barry,

It may have been touched on but I think the people who are buying cards that cost in excess of 100K don't even notice a dip in the account balance after paying for that card and they have a belief that PSA is too big to fail.

Greg

[barrysloate]

Hi Greg,
I don't doubt that some people have so much money that a few hundred thousand won't make a dent, and I also see how there are those who will pay anything to get the best. That's the easy part of the equation. What I can't fathom is how something so imprecise, and so subjective, as grading is accepted with so much blind faith. I guess PSA has done a remarkable job of building their product. That's the best answer so far.

[obcbobd]

From previous posters I see where making a T206 counterfeit would be near impossible due to changes in printing and especially paper. What about more recent cards? 52 Mantle? Gretsky/Jordan/Rose rookies?

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

If you have 1952 Topps Mantle that grades PSA 8, and you are able to convince the grader that it deserves an extra ".5" on the label- not a full grade, but a half grade- that grader has just created a half a million dollars of wealth out of thin area. How did such a market evolve? Something about this simply escapes me.

Rich dudes comparing pee-pee's. Nothing new about that. Same as faster cars, bigger boats or trophy wives.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Not trying to push any political buttons, but we are a country of immense wealth disparity. I spend a decent amount of time down the Jersey shore, in an area that was devastated by Hurricane Sandy. Every grandma and grandpa bungalow that was destroyed by the storm has been replaced by a mansion 5 times larger. With a pool in the backyard. And it isn't a station wagon in the driveway but 2 BMWs. My wife constantly says to me "are there really that many people with so much money." Yes, there are. At least within driving distance of Wall Street. Some of these people spend $50,000 on a watch. Some have wine cellars with a half a million dollars of wine. Some spend hundreds of thousands buying racehorses. To spend $300,000 on a baseball card thinking (a) its really cool and (b) it very likely will appreciate or at least hold its value doesn't seem like a crazy idea at all. If you can say this is a 1 of 1 or a 1 of 10 of anything, I think it's a fine investment -- if you are rich and diversified. I have no doubt that a good scandal would hit the industry hard. And then it would come back. The racing industry has a scandal every few months and rich people still spend $5 million or more on untested, unproved race horses.

It's not the Mantle cards of the Satchel Paiges or the Babe Ruths that have me scratching my head. But people spending $50,000 on an unopened pack. Yeah, I'm not so sure about that.

As to the first point, the last 30 years have been a great experiment in economics. When you cut taxes repeatedly and create other loopholes for the benefit of extremely wealthy people, they were supposed to put that money to productive use in business and grow everyone's wealth, but the reality is that they buy more toys instead. Supposedly high end cards (I say supposedly because there are so many really bad altered prewar cards in high end PSA holders) are just another rich boys' toy.

[rainier2004]

I do want to thank everyone who has contributed to this thread, there have been some very well though-out responses and posts that have been rather respectful and I have enjoyed this talk.

One final word on the reproduction of vintage paper...I don't know, I went to a restoration studio where CHUNKS of paintings and art that were created 200-300 years were missing. The art restorers created his own stock, filled in the voids and NOTHING glowed under a black light. To my untrained eye, it looked perfect...bb card stock can be reproduced w/o detection of tpgs.

This thread does need a card, this would be my favorite WaJo and no, its not mine.

[hangman62]

I thinking spending thousands of dollars on baseball cards is stupid thing to do

( and this coming from a long time passionate collector,who loves cards and the hobby)

I sometimes wish the whole baseball card business would go belly up/cards totally worthless/ bankrupt /useless

Then lets see whos left who really truly enjoys the " worthless cardboard photos" ..for what they are

[rats60]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

As to the first point, the last 30 years have been a great experiment in economics. When you cut taxes repeatedly and create other loopholes for the benefit of extremely wealthy people, they were supposed to put that money to productive use in business and grow everyone's wealth, but the reality is that they buy more toys instead. Supposedly high end cards (I say supposedly because there are so many really bad altered prewar cards in high end PSA holders) are just another rich boys' toy.

No, they are wise investments. People are reinvesting their money to maintain and increase their financial position. It is no different than buying stocks, bonds, etc. If you don't think the average person is doing well, I would suggest you take a trip to Haiti or Afghanistan.

[obcbobd]

Originally Posted by hangman62

i sometimes wish the whole baseball card business would go belly up/cards totally worthless/ bankrupt /useless

then lets see whos left who really truly enjoys the " worthless cardboard photos" ..for what they are

yes!

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by obcbobd

yes!

I don't understand that sentiment at all. If you enjoy collecting for whatever reason, why would other people's motives for what they are doing ruin it for you? Just do you own thing and be happy. Why would it irk you that certain high end cards that most of us aren't buying are soaring into the stratosphere. Just let it be. Everytime I go to to a Met game there are people sitting in $1000 seats. Whatever. I'm happy in a $100 seat. I'm happy wearing suits off the rack and some dudes will only wear custom made. Makes the world go round.

[MattyC]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

I don't understand that sentiment at all. If you enjoy collecting for whatever reason, why would other people's motives for what they are doing ruin it for you? Just do you own thing and be happy. Why would it irk you that certain high end cards that most of us aren't buying are soaring into the stratosphere. Just let it be. Everytime I go to to a Met game there are people sitting in $1000 seats. Whatever. I'm happy in a $100 seat. I'm happy wearing suits off the rack and some dudes will only wear custom made. Makes the world go round.

Exactly. "Just do you own thing and be happy," well said. Seems like there's a lot of bile and general bitterness at money out there.

When I'm looking at my cards by myself or with my son or my brothers or cousins who collect, I'm loving collecting and the game of baseball and the specific cards I've found and chosen for their specific attributes— I'm certainly not wasting my energy thinking about what some other dudes are buying or why they're buying it or for how much, or what's overgraded, or some hypothetical scam. And yes, I'd bet many collectors would still love their cards just the same if they were suddenly worth nothing. If we didn't open packs and collect as kids for money, I don't see why we'd do so now, since a big part of collecting is to reconnect with one's youth and stay young inside.

[obcbobd]

Originally Posted by MattyC

Seems like there's a lot of bile and general bitterness at money out there.

a big part of collecting is to reconnect with one's youth and stay young inside.

No bile. No bitterness towards money, people who have it (and I have my share). But as you said collecting for me is a reconnection to my youth and that is to the cardboard itself, not the monetary value. So, if all my cards lose their value, I'm ok, means I can buy more . They aren't investments. They're something much more innocent.

[botn]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Hi Greg,
I don't doubt that some people have so much money that a few hundred thousand won't make a dent, and I also see how there are those who will pay anything to get the best. That's the easy part of the equation. What I can't fathom is how something so imprecise, and so subjective, as grading is accepted with so much blind faith. I guess PSA has done a remarkable job of building their product. That's the best answer so far.

Safety in numbers I suppose, Barry. So much money has been invested in graded material and continues to be spent. I look at every card I buy, regardless of what it costs...maybe because I feel I have to and because I can. Not everyone buying cards has the expertise to determine if their card is graded right so it is easier to defer to the "experts". I know I do not approach much of anything in my life, that way.

[Rookiemonster]

I think it's very possible to be in to cards for money and the love of the hobby.
When I was a kid in the 90s I lived to see the up arrow in the Beckett on cards I owned. So of course I hated to see the dreaded down arrows. I had dreams of my cards going up up up and me cashing in.

I also had cards that I just liked because of the image or the player. Most of what I said rings true today. I love to see my cards increase in value and hate it when they go down.

Now of late I've been buying 80s and 90s inserts. ( trying to buy a home ) so I've been taking it easy and I don't really care about the value but I'm still only buying cards I think are undervalued or rare for the era even.

[Bicem]

Originally Posted by rainier2004

This thread does need a card, this would be my favorite WaJo and no, its not mine.

Great choice in a thread relating to the incompetentcies of the grading companies!

[rainier2004]

Originally Posted by Bicem

Great choice in a thread relating to the incompetentcies of the grading companies!

heh heh heh...

[AGuinness]

Originally Posted by glchen

Barry, I don't disagree with you at all in regards to the flips, but for collectibles, people often defer to these so called experts in those fields even when buying extremely expensive things.

And there are so many other third party experts out there involved in so many other areas of life. Buying a house, for instance, often includes multiple third party experts, such as realtors, assessors and inspectors. Many people consult the Kelley Blue Book (or similar publications) when buying a car. These type of experts, who help establish the condition and comparables of an item, are common in lots of places.

I do "get" the animosity towards TPGs, towards the money in the hobby, etc. but in the end, sports cards aren't just investments or tokens of our childhood or connections to the game, etc. Collecting cards (or whatever) is different things for different people, and perhaps many things for some, and that makes the hobby more nuanced and interesting, to me.

[irishdenny]

Originally Posted by steve B

Kind of messing up the timelines by responding as I go through the thread. Sorry, can't think of a better way.

Knowing people in the printing business where it's a place that goes back to 1901 is pretty cool.

But it goes right to what I said in another post.
They really KNOW printing. But they don't make paper, so it's a mystery.

The paper people know how the paper was made. Cranes has a small museum in Dalton that shows the process that came before machine made paper.
The machine process isn't much different than making paper by hand, except for how it's more precise, and done on a very large scale.
I'm sure a mill would make you whatever you wanted - IF you bought enough. I sort of don't want to know what a minimum run of special paper is. I've had special stuff made a couple times, and finding a place that will make say 500 lbs /a few hundred feet of a special size metal tube is difficult. And that's just a small redraw mill, not an actual tubing mill.

So duplicating it would mean replicating the process on a small scale that's typically done by a very large machine. (The one that makes our money paper- if my Jr High memory is correct- is about 200 Ft long if not more.)
That's really not easy.

Steve B

Steve, Dankz fir the discussion!

I was of the Same Mind Set!
Until They, Which Included a Gentlemen Who's Family had made their Papar
fir just about the same amount of time educated me.
(I guess my implications were in my head but didn't translate well inta my writings, "My Apologies Sir!)

I was Schooled in the process...
And Then was Told THaT Sum of the Process & Materials are Known
Howevar, The Expertise through the lack of Experience has been Lost.

The "What ta Use" is Sum What Known..
But the How, How Much & When ta Process them is Gone!

They concluded with Reproducing the Card Stock
Fir T206's, E90-1's & T205's Would be a NiGHTMare...

I Realize that there are many More Knowledgeable People witin the Papar Industry out there (And I'm Certainly Not one of them!) Wit more optimistic attitudes about Reproducin These Specific Card Stocks...

I just want ta add that Lost Arts are everywhere witin the History of Man
And from what I've found out this seems like a logical "Lost Art" ~

I Do Like Bein Correct...
I Just Very Rarely am!

Unless it has t do wit Electronic Theory

[kailes2872]

While I like the safety of the entombment of the card and the fact that the condition is locked forever (in theory - deterioration from chemicals as the possible exception), if I had my choice I would have them all raw so I could enjoy them in binders and look at them on a daily basis. As it stands, it take front/back photocopies of the graded cards - usually the high value superstars - with a label that shoes the grade, registration number and SMR and put it back in the binder

However, I have had too many circumstances where I have had a raw card talked down When I am selling - Ex becomes VG - and then pumped up When I am buying EX becomes NM. Of course, even with the standardization and commoditization of the flip/slab, most don't want to pay more than 70-75% of the VCP amount so I am not sure how far we have come.

Therefore, I buy graded cards primarily to protect my spouse/family in the case something happens to me. As that way there is a cost basis to work off of for the big stuff.

Based upon my budget/discretionary income, I buy mostly 6's and 7's. I'd love to have 8's but I can't justify the 4x price of a 6 for the incremental visual appeal over a strong 6. But to those who can - God bless and more power to you.

[dodgerfanjohn]

A similar thread came up on the psa forums a few years ago with a supposed "buying group" manipulated some elements of the market.

People kind of dismissed my answer, but the reality of what I'm going to say doesnt go away. Assuming a US population of 400 million, the top .1% of incomes is still...400,000 people. Make it the top .01% and thats still 40,000 people. At the levels of income that would involve, youd only need a handful of interested collectors chasing cards to support a market for the top level cards.

I am wondering if where one lives really influences their thinking on this. For instance in Los Angeles, Burbank Sportscards was heavily supported being near Toluca Lake...one of the wealthiest parts of the nation...as well as several other nearby neighborhoods that were favored parts of the entertainment industry. South Bay Sportscards in Lomita, CA charges outrageous prices. They are also right next to Rolling Hills and Palos Verdes, CA...neighborhoods with some very high incomes.

The number of people in LA with crazy money(say either $1million plus annual income, or $20 million plus liquid worth) might be 10x higher than many entire states. And NY, SF, Chicago, and maybe a few other big cities.

How many lottery winners, how many lotto level sports contracts, how many entertainment people, very successful investors and businessmen?

I can say with certainty that if I hit the lottery, my baseball card budget would blow from $1,000 a year or so to 25-100x that depending on how much money I had. And if I wanted a certain card or set that was rare, you can bet I'd be in there bidding it up.

Point being that the number of collectors out there with huge money...enough to the point that thousands or more are relatively meaningless...Is very likely a decent size number. And I think a lot of people in the hobby don't understand that. And those that do understand are tight lipped because their business depends on it.

[Exhibitman]

Good points John. I'd add that everything that goes into a nice lifestyle in Los Angeles has gotten out of hand due to the money sloshing around for playtime. Try going to a Dodgers game. Hundreds of dollars to sit on the field level anywhere near the plate. Or a concert. I just bought tickets to Green Day at the rose bowl. Nearly $200 for the back of the field. The lawn close to the stage was $450 a ticket.

As for my earlier comments on income disparity and tax policy, the response i got does not withstand scrutiny. An argument to averages is pointless because it weights the extremes. If you have a foot in a block of ice and a foot on fire then on average your feet are at a good temperature. The reality is that our economy has hollowed out to resemble a barbell with large extremes and an ever thinner middle. That's some third world banana republic stuff.

Oh, and cards aren't an investment. They are an illiquid asset with huge transactional costs at both entry and exit. If you want to bamboozle the wife with ROI talk to justify a trip to the National to hang out and party at the hotel bar I can totally respect that but don't expect me to buy into it. Maybe a Wagner is an investment but a vg T206 is a toy for boys. Not that there is anything wrong with that. I mean chicks dig guys who collect cards: look at all the women in the hotel bars in Chicago the first night of the National. So friendly. Gotta be the cards. Right?

[Yoda]

For me at least as a dealer/collector, where the rubber meets the road, is when I am offered what seems to be an obscene amount of money for one of my treasures I swore I would never sell. But then after agonizing, I would take the wampum and move on. It seems these days gold trumps cardboard.

[Dpeck100]

Third party grading makes a card a certified collectible. Anyone can agree or disagree with the grade but when it comes time to buy or sell the marketplace treats it as such. I recall a 1974 Topps Dave Winfield rookie that was graded a PSA 10 and even the most die hard PSA supporter couldn't in any circumstances look at the card and say Gem Mint. Well guess what it went for over $7,400 at the time and the buyer got a Dave Winfield encapsulated in a PSA 10 holder. Cards in graded cases have become commodities and the ease in which many can change hands has led to more money coming into the marketplace. One of the primary reasons the publicly traded stock and bond markets are so active is because they are liquid. The card market obviously isn't as liquid with the bid ask spread being wider and trading costs being higher but without third party grading that spread would be so wide it wouldn't allow for what has happened.


It is glaringly obvious from reading Net 54 that there are a ton of bitter collectors or haters that are so upset that they didn't jump on the graded card bandwagon in high grade. Many constantly throw insults at the people buying these cards and yet they are the one's laughing all the way to the bank. Anyone who thinks that you can't consistently tell the difference between a EX-MT card and a NM-MT or a NM and a Mint is just fooling themselves. In recent years there has been a movement towards mid grade cards with great eye appeal. These are obviously perfect cards for collectors wanting to enjoy the cards and have a reasonably nice card to look at but make no mistake about it the investment potential is in higher grades. It is really that simple. This topic has been discussed many times and at the core of collecting is ego. Whether you simply want to appease yourself for fun or you want to have the best that others can't it is a self interest motive and that is the core of one's ego. There is no doubt that many of the top cards in the hobby are bragging rights pieces. No different than any other high end collectibles or works of art.



The trend in the hobby is higher and while many sit and watch in amazement, happiness or bitterness it is what it is. I chose to collect a genre that I could afford the top level pieces. When you deal in the major sports you are competing against some of the wealthiest people in the world. All it takes is two very well off individuals to want an item and the sky is the limit. As the prices rise they become more intriguing. You can show someone a trading card that is worth $50 and they might say that is pretty cool. You show the same person a card that is worth $100,000 and their eyes light up and they say oh my God that is incredible. Taking that a step further showing someone a 7 figure card and they are in complete astonishment. This is one of the primary things that fuel high end prices. I can recall as a kid not being able to afford the 1986 Donruss Jose Canseco or the 1984 Fleer Update Roger Clemens. Imagine the same being true for someone who grew up watching Mickey Mantle or Nolan Ryan or another top star. This same person has gone on to great success and finds out that the same cards they wanted and couldn't afford can now be bought in differentiating condition like diamonds and are encapsulated for safety and handling with the grade proudly displayed on top. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that if they become interested they will get hooked.


Just this past week a 1958 Topps Bobby Hull in a PSA 8 went for $102,000. The wave is spreading to all of the top cards from various sports and genres. It is going to take a very serious economic contraction for this to come to an end. Even then there will be vultures looking to pick of weak prey and the cycle will start again. Humans love to collect things of sentiment and value and trading cards offer this. The card market is like the income distribution and the spread between the haves and have nots continues to widen. There is nothing wrong with being average or owning average cards but the desire to be the best or own the best isn't going anywhere. When you add the element of past performance and true scarcity it is the perfect storm.

[Snapolit1]

Everywhere in life it's "the good old days this" and "the good old days that". People who sold their homes in my neighborhood 20 years ago because they thought it was the top of the market were wrong. Very wrong. Yet when you meet them they will give you 10 reasons why they are happy they got out when they did. They were dead wrong and want to justify it somehow in their own minds.

Anyone who doesn't think high end graded cards can be an investment must have slept through the recent REA auction. And what's so hard about selling high quality cards? I have a friend who extended himself a decade ago and bought a card for $3800. Just sold it for over $60K. Sounds like a decent investment. I agree that not every card can be viewed as an investment, and most of them probably aren't, but if you don't believe the good stuff will appreciate more in value your kidding yourself.

The one point that people here ignore over and over and over is that the same well heeled buyer can be both a lover of baseball cards and baseball and be an investor in cards at the same time. Why is that so hard to grasp? The dentist driving a Ferrari can love cars his whole life just as much as the guy who buys spare parts and works in his garage every weekend reconditioning an old Mustang. Not mutually exclusive.

[Leon]

Nice write up, David. I am not a graded or raw collector and generally buy mid grade cards with great eye appeal (to me). I agree with a lot of your thoughts. Unless you are Bill Gates someone is always going to have more money than you. Collections are the same way. Just do what makes you happy. I appreciate seeing others collections and great cards too. The diversity of the hobby makes it interesting AS WELL as the amount of money. Take the money out and it does become less interesting to most. That all said, if the time and card are right, there is nothing wrong with a pointy cornered card...It seems the money just keeps rolling into the hobby.

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

Third party grading makes a card a certified collectible. Anyone can agree or disagree with the grade but when it comes time to buy or sell the marketplace treats it as such. I recall a 1974 Topps Dave Winfield rookie that was graded a PSA 10 and even the most die hard PSA supporter couldn't in any circumstances look at the card and say Gem Mint. Well guess what it went for over $7,400 at the time and the buyer got a Dave Winfield encapsulated in a PSA 10 holder. Cards in graded cases have become commodities and the ease in which many can change hands has led to more money coming into the marketplace. One of the primary reasons the publicly traded stock and bond markets are so active is because they are liquid. The card market obviously isn't as liquid with the bid ask spread being wider and trading costs being higher but without third party grading that spread would be so wide it wouldn't allow for what has happened.


It is glaringly obvious from reading Net 54 that there are a ton of bitter collectors or haters that are so upset that they didn't jump on the graded card bandwagon in high grade. Many constantly throw insults at the people buying these cards and yet they are the one's laughing all the way to the bank. Anyone who thinks that you can't consistently tell the difference between a EX-MT card and a NM-MT or a NM and a Mint is just fooling themselves. In recent years there has been a movement towards mid grade cards with great eye appeal. These are obviously perfect cards for collectors wanting to enjoy the cards and have a reasonably nice card to look at but make no mistake about it the investment potential is in higher grades. It is really that simple. This topic has been discussed many times and at the core of collecting is ego. Whether you simply want to appease yourself for fun or you want to have the best that others can't it is a self interest motive and that is the core of one's ego. There is no doubt that many of the top cards in the hobby are bragging rights pieces. No different than any other high end collectibles or works of art.



The trend in the hobby is higher and while many sit and watch in amazement, happiness or bitterness it is what it is. I chose to collect a genre that I could afford the top level pieces. When you deal in the major sports you are competing against some of the wealthiest people in the world. All it takes is two very well off individuals to want an item and the sky is the limit. As the prices rise they become more intriguing. You can show someone a trading card that is worth $50 and they might say that is pretty cool. You show the same person a card that is worth $100,000 and their eyes light up and they say oh my God that is incredible. Taking that a step further showing someone a 7 figure card and they are in complete astonishment. This is one of the primary things that fuel high end prices. I can recall as a kid not being able to afford the 1986 Donruss Jose Canseco or the 1984 Fleer Update Roger Clemens. Imagine the same being true for someone who grew up watching Mickey Mantle or Nolan Ryan or another top star. This same person has gone on to great success and finds out that the same cards they wanted and couldn't afford can now be bought in differentiating condition like diamonds and are encapsulated for safety and handling with the grade proudly displayed on top. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that if they become interested they will get hooked.


Just this past week a 1958 Topps Bobby Hull in a PSA 8 went for $102,000. The wave is spreading to all of the top cards from various sports and genres. It is going to take a very serious economic contraction for this to come to an end. Even then there will be vultures looking to pick of weak prey and the cycle will start again. Humans love to collect things of sentiment and value and trading cards offer this. The card market is like the income distribution and the spread between the haves and have nots continues to widen. There is nothing wrong with being average or owning average cards but the desire to be the best or own the best isn't going anywhere. When you add the element of past performance and true scarcity it is the perfect storm.

[rainier2004]

I did get into some stuff early, high grade isn't the only "investment" though. Truly rare or iconic items have done awfully well based on the same REA auction. But the fact of the matter is I have been priced out of some things, doesn't mean I am bitter though as I love the hobby. I would love to do a 1914 CJ set but that will never happen after the huge spike 3 or 4 years ago. Yes, ultimately I agree its all ego driven by definition, but there are some innocent factors as well like connecting to our childhood.

I guess I am just amazed...and there are definitely a ton of people with tons of cash.

[calvindog]

It's always the guys with no money telling the rest of us how dumb we are to spend big money on high grade cards. They have yet to figure out that no one listens to investment advice from guys with no money.

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

Third party grading makes a card a certified collectible. Anyone can agree or disagree with the grade but when it comes time to buy or sell the marketplace treats it as such. I recall a 1974 Topps Dave Winfield rookie that was graded a PSA 10 and even the most die hard PSA supporter couldn't in any circumstances look at the card and say Gem Mint. Well guess what it went for over $7,400 at the time and the buyer got a Dave Winfield encapsulated in a PSA 10 holder. Cards in graded cases have become commodities and the ease in which many can change hands has led to more money coming into the marketplace. One of the primary reasons the publicly traded stock and bond markets are so active is because they are liquid. The card market obviously isn't as liquid with the bid ask spread being wider and trading costs being higher but without third party grading that spread would be so wide it wouldn't allow for what has happened.


It is glaringly obvious from reading Net 54 that there are a ton of bitter collectors or haters that are so upset that they didn't jump on the graded card bandwagon in high grade. Many constantly throw insults at the people buying these cards and yet they are the one's laughing all the way to the bank. Anyone who thinks that you can't consistently tell the difference between a EX-MT card and a NM-MT or a NM and a Mint is just fooling themselves. In recent years there has been a movement towards mid grade cards with great eye appeal. These are obviously perfect cards for collectors wanting to enjoy the cards and have a reasonably nice card to look at but make no mistake about it the investment potential is in higher grades. It is really that simple. This topic has been discussed many times and at the core of collecting is ego. Whether you simply want to appease yourself for fun or you want to have the best that others can't it is a self interest motive and that is the core of one's ego. There is no doubt that many of the top cards in the hobby are bragging rights pieces. No different than any other high end collectibles or works of art.



The trend in the hobby is higher and while many sit and watch in amazement, happiness or bitterness it is what it is. I chose to collect a genre that I could afford the top level pieces. When you deal in the major sports you are competing against some of the wealthiest people in the world. All it takes is two very well off individuals to want an item and the sky is the limit. As the prices rise they become more intriguing. You can show someone a trading card that is worth $50 and they might say that is pretty cool. You show the same person a card that is worth $100,000 and their eyes light up and they say oh my God that is incredible. Taking that a step further showing someone a 7 figure card and they are in complete astonishment. This is one of the primary things that fuel high end prices. I can recall as a kid not being able to afford the 1986 Donruss Jose Canseco or the 1984 Fleer Update Roger Clemens. Imagine the same being true for someone who grew up watching Mickey Mantle or Nolan Ryan or another top star. This same person has gone on to great success and finds out that the same cards they wanted and couldn't afford can now be bought in differentiating condition like diamonds and are encapsulated for safety and handling with the grade proudly displayed on top. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that if they become interested they will get hooked.


Just this past week a 1958 Topps Bobby Hull in a PSA 8 went for $102,000. The wave is spreading to all of the top cards from various sports and genres. It is going to take a very serious economic contraction for this to come to an end. Even then there will be vultures looking to pick of weak prey and the cycle will start again. Humans love to collect things of sentiment and value and trading cards offer this. The card market is like the income distribution and the spread between the haves and have nots continues to widen. There is nothing wrong with being average or owning average cards but the desire to be the best or own the best isn't going anywhere. When you add the element of past performance and true scarcity it is the perfect storm.

[SMPEP]

Wow! Somebody sure did a nice job doctoring that card Jeff!

Cheers,
Patrick

[Dpeck100]

There is no doubt that there are cards out there that are so rare that the card in any condition can perform quite well. That said of those examples once again the higher you go up the grading scale the better the performance will be. Human behavior in many cases is very easy to predict and when it comes to things of value the higher up the food chain you go, they want collectibles that could impress others who share their level of wealth. For years on the CU board I have discussed the 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle in a PSA 10. I believe that if one comes available it is very likely to land in the hands of a non card collector. Someone with roots to the 1950's and 60's Yankees who has vast wealth and would love to showcase such a rare specimen in their 60th floor penthouse. Quite frankly the higher the price goes the more they will want it as the bragging rights associated with such a card only go up as the price does.

I continue to be puzzled by the notion that some suggest that cards aren't investments. You may not view your collection as an investment but in the real world anything that can be called a store of value is an investment. In 1985 when I began first purchasing cards Dwight Gooden was all of the rage. A pack of 1985 Topps was $0.35 and the goal as a kid was to buy a pack and get cards that were worth more than your $0.35. If you did your investment made money. If it didn't you lost and felt sorry for yourself and had to scrounge up some more funds to play the lottery again. All of the kids in my neighborhood couldn't wait for that months Beckett to come out and see if our collections were gaining value.

The card market is very much like the stock market. You have a huge number of choices and varying degrees of risk. On one hand you have long term winners that using history as a guide have done well over time all the way to registry cards that are more like penny stocks with some paying off but most going down overtime as the populations increase. The modern market would be considered very high risk but with that risk level, some will produce massive gains while most will fizzle out and be worth a fraction of their value in the future.

People buying cards that are $5,000 or perhaps $10,000 or higher are definitely in almost all cases concerned about the value. It may not be their primary motive for purchase but if one thinks that someone is interested in buying a card for that sum and watching it dwindle down to a few hundred bucks they are simply mistaken. The run that many cards have had since I got back into cards in 2009 is staggering. As the prices have risen it has given many more resources to use for other purchases and confidence in their ability to invest in the card market. The term investment shouldn't be considered a bad word when it comes to cards. It takes real resources to purchase them and unless ones funds are simply unlimited it isn't even rational to not want them to hold their price and hopefully increase.

I started sending cards to PSA in early 2010 and I have never participated in anything where the upside is so much greater than the downside. It is incredible that you can send cards to a grading company and simply pay a fee and instantaneously have the potential to wildly increase their value. There are countless collectors and dealers who have 100 baggers on cards. Find me a stock that you can buy and have this happen. I am in the stock business and trust me it is incredibly difficult to pick big winners but even more difficult to hold them and ride them for long periods because at some point you buckle and sell. The other feature that cards offer is they can't go to zero. Even players like Barry Bonds who was on the perennial cold list have seen their higher graded cards make a huge resurgence.

Combining fun, nostalgia, competition and investing in one hobby is incredible and one of the primary reasons that more people are entering the hobby and that people are willing to pony up larger sums to participate. It is true that most cards aren't what you would classify as safe investments but those making very strategic bets on marque pieces have done extremely well over time and that isn't going to change.

[MattyC]

Originally Posted by Dpeck100

In recent years there has been a movement towards mid grade cards with great eye appeal. These are obviously perfect cards for collectors wanting to enjoy the cards and have a reasonably nice card to look at but make no mistake about it the investment potential is in higher grades.

There is nothing wrong with being average or owning average cards but the desire to be the best or own the best isn't going anywhere.

Define "average" and "best." And furthermore, who gets to define what's best?

If you want to think it's PSA, which is essentially some card grader, that's certainly your choice and to be respected as such. And perhaps a good amount of the time an individual collector shopping for what he subjectively thinks is best will agree with what the grader said. Yet let's not lose sight of the fact that the grading rules were arbitrarily codified by the TPGs, and are also subjectively enforced. Personally, I think each collector gets to decide ultimately what's the best card with his own two eyes.

I've seen plenty of cards in "average" grade that, to my eye, blow away another card with a 9 or 10 sticker on it. Now you may say that the card with the 9 or 10 is "best" because it sells for more money, and that's cool if money is your judgement criteria— yet a collector looking for aesthetic beauty to their eye uses that as their criteria. So one guy's "best" might not be PSA's "best," or the next guy's "best." No one's right and no one's wrong. Let's just not sweepingly impose a definition of such a key term on everyone in the same hobby. We may all collect cards, but we may not all necessarily kowtow to what some grader says, and we may not use price realized upon sale as the key determinant of what is "best."

I also wouldn't equate owning a card in an "average" grade with being average, as you did above. Nor would I equate being the best with owning the card that sells for the most or has the highest sticker grade. For example, there are cards with '9' and '10' on the sticker that I can afford, yet I can honestly say if I choose them over another card in lower grade that looks better to my eye and costs me less to boot, I'd feel more like a fool than the "best."

[Dpeck100]

I have quite a few graded wrestling cards. One of the reasons I have so many is I appreciate eye appeal. That said I don't confuse reality. Higher grades go for higher prices. Matty you can certainly take credit for playing a major roll in collectors appreciating lower graded centered copies but at the end of the day the higher graded examples can climb the most.

[MattyC]

As someone who's seen lots of your collection, I always have loved how the cards you choose always match or exceed the grade. You also have tremendous passion for the cards, the athletes, and the sport.

And I certainly would agree with the higher grades appreciating the most in value, as well.

[Exhibitman]

What I object to is the investors taking an innocent pastime and transforming it into yet another ruthless exercise in commerce. Maybe that is an inevitable byproduct of how our culture commoditizes everything but I don't have to like it or applaud those who do.

And stay off my lawn!

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

What I object to is the investors taking an innocent pastime and transforming it into yet another ruthless exercise in commerce. Maybe that is an inevitable byproduct of how our culture commoditizes everything but I don't have to like it or applaud those who do.

And stay off my lawn!

Well said. All about $$$$. And all the BS that goes along with it, especially card doctoring, third party grading politics, auction fraud, etc.

[SMPEP]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

What I object to is the investors taking an innocent pastime and transforming it into yet another ruthless exercise in commerce. Maybe that is an inevitable byproduct of how our culture commoditizes everything but I don't have to like it or applaud those who do.

And stay off my lawn!

+1

[botn]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Well said. All about $$$$. And all the BS that goes along with it, especially card doctoring, third party grading politics, auction fraud, etc.

Boy are you bitter!

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by botn

Boy are you bitter!

Well, when I started to see 1952 Topps Wehmeier's selling for thousands of dollars just because someone stuck an 8 flip on them, I started to wonder, and not a lot has happened since then to give me confidence. Too many people buying centered 5s and 6s and turning them into 8s and 9s for my taste.

[AGuinness]

I TOTALLY get the view that money has corrupted a child's pastime and part of me will always feel this way as prices skyrocket and people are priced out of cards.

But the logical part of me also has to acknowledge that this is not exclusive to baseball cards. This happens elsewhere in other "innocent" pursuits, including toys (check out these realized prices on old Star Wars figures: http://www.sothebys.com/en/auctions/...go-n09402.html), kids books (one of the first Harry Potter books sold for $37k: https://www.abebooks.com/books/rareb...ns-books.shtml), video games (http://mentalfloss.com/article/66183...ve-video-games) and more.

The positive spin, which I prefer, is that baseball cards are treated as an investment because so many of us find them fascinating and wonderful, giving us an emotional lift and reminding us of those more innocent times and pursuits of our past. And in my opinion, I much prefer how baseball cards have evolved and the future of collecting versus video games, toys and books.

And I hope that people do see the irony of any resentment over baseball cards being a commodity, considering their role in history to help sell tobacco, bread, gum, candy, etc. etc.

[hcv123]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Here is something I simply do not understand regarding the large sums spent on baseball cards. Let's take two lots in the recent REA Auction: Lot 12, a PSA 9 Hank Aaron rookie which sold for 216K; and lot 13, a PSA 9 Sandy Koufax rookie which sold for 156K. We all know those are both very common cards, and only attained those lofty bids because they were graded Mint 9. For someone willing to pay such an extraordinary amount of money for them, there had to be a strong belief that what they were buying is exactly what it says on the label. But here is what we also know:

1) A card submitted for grading that comes back "Evidence of Trimming" can be resubmitted a month later and come back NR MT 7.

2) The same card can be submitted three times and come back with three different grades.

3) Countless trimmed and altered cards make it into holders with numerical grades with alarming frequency.

So can somebody tell me why there is such a blind faith in that little white label? To me there is a disconnect here that makes no sense. Why is something so subjective and so inconsistent treated with such absolute trust? You don't spend a quarter of a million dollars on something if you are not completely confident you are getting what you are paying for.

I believe many people do put their faith in the holder. Of course most of these people are not hard core collectors that know better (and know the market better), but apparently there are some/many? with deep pockets. Doing this a long time and also stunned at some of the numbers.

[mark evans]

I agree with Barry that, given the inherent subjectivity in grading, it is hard to justify the enormous disparities at the high end of valuable cards, like 8 v. 8.5 for example. It would seem to me that these disparities would diminish over time.

Further, while I would never offer unsolicited advice, it seems fair to speculate that the increase in values of vintage cards will taper off over time due to aging baby boomers and general economic conditions.

Finally, I am not offended by folks who approach the hobby for its investment value. I recognize that infusion of serious money engenders unpleasant consequences, like fraud, but think these problems can be adequately addressed by self-regulation assuming sufficient desire, and by law enforcement efforts where necessary.

[kailes2872]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Oh, and cards aren't an investment. They are an illiquid asset with huge transactional costs at both entry and exit. If you want to bamboozle the wife with ROI talk to justify a trip to the National to hang out and party at the hotel bar I can totally respect that but don't expect me to buy into it. Maybe a Wagner is an investment but a vg T206 is a toy for boys. Not that there is anything wrong with that. I mean chicks dig guys who collect cards: look at all the women in the hotel bars in Chicago the first night of the National. So friendly. Gotta be the cards. Right?

This is what I keep coming back to... The 20% juice (or 13% + time & energy on Ebay) speak to those huge transaction costs. If my broker charged me this to move in and out of funds or single stocks, I would probably not consider the stock market a place that I would want to invest - considering how much work it would take to make money above the transaction costs.

I did laugh about bamboozling the wife - as whenever the arms cross and I get a stink eye about the latest card/set/project that I have bought or began, I pull out my inventory on the PSA registry page that shows that I have made about 20% above what I bought them for. Of course, this is SMR which does not feel very real world, and she & I know that I have no intention ever to sell - (and she doesn't realize that I am 80 cents on the dollar at an AH or less than that selling to a dealer) - but it cools down the heat in the kitchen and sometimes I will go on the offensive and compare the 20% return on my inventory to a measly 8.8% return on our liquid assets. Some day she is going to call my bluff and say - sell it all and I will have to explain that it really isn't that much above what I paid for it - if any at all - after fees are taken into account.

[Leon]

Taking the bluff might not be that bad for you down the road. It wasn't that bad for me. My return was much better than 20%.
My wife never thought I wouldn't do it either. Now I just tell her in 20 more years I will do it again.

Originally Posted by kailes2872

Some day she is going to call my bluff and say - sell it all and I will have to explain that it really isn't that much above what I paid for it - if any at all - after fees are taken into account.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by mark evans

I agree with Barry that, given the inherent subjectivity in grading, it is hard to justify the enormous disparities at the high end of valuable cards, like 8 v. 8.5 for example. It would seem to me that these disparities would diminish over time.

Further, while I would never offer unsolicited advice, it seems fair to speculate that the increase in values of vintage cards will taper off over time due to aging baby boomers and general economic conditions.

Finally, I am not offended by folks who approach the hobby for its investment value. I recognize that infusion of serious money engenders unpleasant consequences, like fraud, but think these problems can be adequately addressed by self-regulation assuming sufficient desire, and by law enforcement efforts where necessary.

I totally agree!

[Yoda]

Originally Posted by Leon

Nice write up, David. I am not a graded or raw collector and generally buy mid grade cards with great eye appeal (to me). I agree with a lot of your thoughts. Unless you are Bill Gates someone is always going to have more money than you. Collections are the same way. Just do what makes you happy. I appreciate seeing others collections and great cards too. The diversity of the hobby makes it interesting AS WELL as the amount of money. Take the money out and it does become less interesting to most. That all said, if the time and card are right, there is nothing wrong with a pointy cornered card...It seems the money just keeps rolling into the hobby.

Leon, just for old times sake, could you roll out the E90-1 Young Boston excruciatingly rare football helmet variation card. I miss seeing it. Tks. John

[steve B]

Originally Posted by irishdenny

Steve, Dankz fir the discussion!

I was of the Same Mind Set!
Until They, Which Included a Gentlemen Who's Family had made their Papar
fir just about the same amount of time educated me.
(I guess my implications were in my head but didn't translate well inta my writings, "My Apologies Sir!)

I was Schooled in the process...
And Then was Told THaT Sum of the Process & Materials are Known
Howevar, The Expertise through the lack of Experience has been Lost.

The "What ta Use" is Sum What Known..
But the How, How Much & When ta Process them is Gone!

They concluded with Reproducing the Card Stock
Fir T206's, E90-1's & T205's Would be a NiGHTMare...

I Realize that there are many More Knowledgeable People witin the Papar Industry out there (And I'm Certainly Not one of them!) Wit more optimistic attitudes about Reproducin These Specific Card Stocks...

I just want ta add that Lost Arts are everywhere witin the History of Man
And from what I've found out this seems like a logical "Lost Art" ~

I Do Like Bein Correct...
I Just Very Rarely am!

Unless it has t do wit Electronic Theory

Perhaps.
That someone with a lot of years in says it would be really hard must count for something.

One of the good things about paper is that for the most part papermaking back then was a bit less precise than it is now.
There's a variety with the stamps I collect known as "straw paper" Because it's got bits of straw/hay in it. Some people consider it as an entirely different paper. The reality is that if the vat of pulp has to be just fluid enough for the purpose, not too thick, not too watery. But since it's there all day being mixed they have to constantly add water. Back then, if too much water was added they'd throw in a bale or two of hay to thicken it up, resulting in a bit of the batch getting a bunch of hay particles in it.
That's 1870's -80's, and things barely changed at all between then and 1910.

Now it's probably constantly checked by sensors and a computer controls the water content.

Yes, a bunch of that expertise would have been lost. Duplicating it precisely so nobody could tell probably isn't possible. Duplicating it so it's really hard to tell? I think it's doable.

Steve B