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#1
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Last edited by packs; 06-20-2018 at 07:29 AM. |
#2
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I think wins (via WAR) are costing roughly $8 million in free agency at this point. Maybe Boras will pursue a short-term or opt-out laden deal, but if they are gunning for $400 mil, a 10-year deal at $40 mil a year would be an expectation of about 5 wins per year. I think he's at 1 win so far this year, even slumping he'll likely hit 2 wins. With his pedigree (super prospect, MVP, etc.) and the other factors (age, teams flush with money, etc.), even after this season a $400 million contract isn't off the table, I don't think. I think it wouldn't be tough for a team to argue that 5 WAR a season out of Harper is a reasonable expectation. I just don't want my favorite team doing it (and they won't)... |
#3
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As much as any factor other than his own poor performance IMO, the 'rise' of Aaron Judge in NY along with the addition of Stanton have lessened the potential record-breaking deal Harper would receive. With the Cubs, Yankees and Red Sox riding high right now, the Dodgers may bee the only landing spot for him. In a more perfect world (aka without Boras), a highly-incentive-laden contract would be appropriate and possible...too bad for whatever 'sap' shells out...come to think of it...that kind of thinking would bring the Rangers back into the picture...or even the Orioles. A one-for-one trade for Machado??? We live in crazy times...anything is possible....
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. "A life is not important except in the impact it has on others lives" - Jackie Robinson “If you have a chance to make life better for others and fail to do so, you are wasting your time on this earth.”- Roberto Clemente |
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The Nationals aren't even going to blink either because they don't need the guy when you have Juan Soto already on the team and Victor Robles at AAA. Harper has almost no leverage now that he's playing so poorly. The Nationals will let him walk, he'll have no trade value to a contender while he hits under 220 and at worst the teams who do want to sign him can opt to wait him out over the off season like they did to players this year.
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The worst of it is, nobody wants to buy my PSA 10 Finest Red Refractor.
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My avatar is a sketch by my son who is an art school graduate. Some of his sketches and paintings are at https://www.jamesspaethartwork.com/ He is available to do custom drawings in graphite, charcoal and other media. He also sells some of his works as note cards/greeting cards on Etsy under JamesSpaethArt. |
#6
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You have company there...went all in - D'OT! .
__________________
. "A life is not important except in the impact it has on others lives" - Jackie Robinson “If you have a chance to make life better for others and fail to do so, you are wasting your time on this earth.”- Roberto Clemente |
#7
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Harper is not Trout's equal, but he's a lot better than his results so far this season. His problem is largely driven by his batting average on balls in play. He's got a .204 mark this year, versus .314 for his career. Now, a hitter's batting average on balls in play is not as predictable as a pitcher's, but players do tend to regress towards their own career norms. Sure, a player's "true" batting average on balls in play can change - foot or leg injuries, a re-worked swing, lots of things can do it - but there's still a trend there. So it's very likely that he's going to get at least some of that BABIP back.
Also, his low WAR total this season is partly the result of very poor fielding numbers. He's at -7 Rfield for the year so far. He's a better fielder than that, you shouldn't expect him to be that bad going forward. I doubt that $400 million is on the table any more. Even if he's better than this, you can't ignore performance that is poor and recent (the worst combination). But someone is going to give him a lot of money, because all of the signs indicate that he is better than his recent performance would indicate. |
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